Tejada vs. Abreu

[Outshined_One]

So, here's my line of thinking at the moment. The Cubs currently have a gaping hole in RF and a question mark at SS. If Cedeno plays at SS every day, then I'd say that SS production would be somewhat above average. I think he'd do alright defensively at the very least. Yet, in RF, the options for putting some one there are Murton (opening a hole up in LF), Patterson, Pie, and Brandon Sing. I don't think any of those options would be as usable as Cedeno.

 

Secondly, they have only so many prospects/young players who teams would accept in a trade, who are cheap, and who are roughly a year away from being ML-ready (at most). Those guys being:

 

Rich Hill

Felix Pie

Jerome Williams

Ronny Cedeno

Michael Wuertz

Roberto Novoa

Todd Wellemeyer

Carlos Marmol

Sean Marshall

Angel Guzman

 

You could also toss Corey Patterson and Matt Murton onto that list, although it's becoming apparent that CPatt's trade value has taken a nosedive and that the Cubs are pretty much set on having Matt Murton play LF.

 

Anyways, the bottom line with this whole thing is that, based on the prospects I listed above, I think that the Cubs could only realistically get one of either Miguel Tejada or Bobby Abreu if they were to acquire one of them at all. Trading for both would be nothing short of a miracle, in my opinion.

 

So, let's assume the following two things. The trade packages are fair for either player. If Tejada is traded for, Cedeno is shipped off to Baltimore.

 

Given these things, would you rather have Abreu or Tejada?

[E.J.]

I'd probably rather have Abreu, but I think it's more realistic that we get Tejada. I think the Orioles would be willing to accept a bunch of top prospects for Tejada because they really don't have a chance to compete this year in the AL East. I think the Phillies at least have a shot at competing in the NL East so they would rather get a solid ML pitcher for Abreu instead of just prospects. Williams, Hill, Cedeno, and Novoa to the Orioles for Tejada. Get it done Jim. :D

[Sabermetrician]

The defensive spectrum looks like this:

 

 

[ - - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C - - ]

with the basic premise being that positions at the right end of

the spectrum are more difficult than the positions at the left

end of the spectrum. Players can generally move from right

to left along the specturm successfully during their careers.

 

I'd rather have Tejada for this reason: If we have Tejada, we have one of the best offensive players in the game at a position that is lacking good offensive players. With Tejada, we can go out and afford Milton Bradley, those positions would offset and we'd have one of the best lineups in baseball.

 

In my opinion Tejada+Bradley is better than Abreu+Cedeno.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

You know where I stand on this one, OO--Abreu all the way, with Cedeno at SS. I just don't think the Cubs have what the Phillies want, so nothing will happen there. So I'm fine with a second option of Tejada at SS and someone like Bradley or Huff in RF.

 

Hard to be upset about a great option and a good option, I like those kind of choices for once....:-)

[Balsa]

All things being even, I'd rather have Abreu, but I don't think the Cubs can get him/it would be too expensive.

 

I think that Miggy will be cheaper and that the Cubs should therefore pursue primarily him, but keep pressure on both teams, letting them know that we can only make one trade. This puts the pressure on them a bit.

[RockTheIvy]

I too would be happier with the Tejada-Bradley combo than the Abreu-Cedeno one, largely because I am not sure of how good Cedeno is. I'd rather take the surer thing.

[jjgman21]

no offense. interesting subject. but did we really need another thread on Tejada? this makes it seven I think.

[Outshined_One]

I'm curious at the willingness of both teams in terms of giving up their respective players.

 

On the one hand, Abreu is beginning to leave his prime and is due $15m the next two seasons, as memory serves me. We all know what he can do with his bat. He has a terrific arm, but limited defensive ability beyond that. The Phillies also have a surplus of outfielders with the acquisition of Aaron Rowand. I am unsure about where they stand on matters financially. However, they will need pitching and I have the feeling they won't have much interest in Rich Hill due to his troubles with the home run. Yet, the Phillies are a few pieces away from being able to compete in the NL East.

 

On the other hand, Baltimore is in a bad spot. They have good young talent in their rotation (Penn, Cabrera, Bedard), but are sorely lacking otherwise in the pitching department. They do have some good offensive talent, but have their share of holes that need to be plugged. They also have a disgruntled SS who wants out. Tejada is also signed to a reasonable contract and would be under contract for the next few years. It could be possible that the Orioles won't trade him unless a huge deal came along. Yet, the Orioles also have a farm system that's pretty much bereft of talent save for a few lone bright spots. On a final note, Dusty Baker supposedly is the master of making disgruntled players happy in the clubhouse.

 

As far as I can tell, I think the Cubs have an equal shot at landing either Abreu or Tejada. I don't think it will cost Zambrano or Prior for either.

[Outshined_One]

no offense. interesting subject. but did we really need another thread on Tejada? this makes it seven I think.

 

It's cool. It was hard to bring this particular topic up within a thread since one of the threads is already 20someodd pages long and that it wouldn't be a perfect fit in any of the other ones.

[jjgman21]

no offense. interesting subject. but did we really need another thread on Tejada? this makes it seven I think.

 

It's cool. It was hard to bring this particular topic up within a thread since one of the threads is already 20someodd pages long and that it wouldn't be a perfect fit in any of the other ones.

 

I've never been big on that rule myself actually, but seven is a little much.

 

mods, how about three threads

 

tejada trade scenerio speculation and debate

tejada news reports and related speculation

tejada's fit with the cubs and related debate.

[Mizzou]

I'd prefer Abreu, all things equal. All things aren't equal though, and it will likely cost a lot more to acquire Abreu than Tejada, so I say go after Tejada. They're both studs and you can't go wrong either way... hmm, how about we get both? :D

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I wouldn't assume either of these clubs are looking to dump salary (maybe the O's should but I don't think they see it that way). I *think* in order to get one guys the Cubs will have to give up an impact player in the majors.

 

i.e. like a Aram for Miggy deal or Wood for Aberu (Yes, I know Wood has a NTC but I'm trying to give an example).

 

I could be wrong, just throwing it out there.

 

edit - my 1k post! WooWee!

[Outshined_One]

I wouldn't assume either of these clubs are looking to dump salary (maybe the O's should but I don't think they see it that way). I *think* in order to get one guys the Cubs will have to give up an impact player in the majors.

 

i.e. like a Aram for Miggy deal or Wood for Aberu (Yes, I know Wood has a NTC but I'm trying to give an example).

 

I could be wrong, but I thought I'd throw that out there.

 

I think that those teams would be looking for those ideally, but the question of how realistic those expectations are comes up. Long post ahoy!

 

Regarding Tejada, the word is that he has a bad relationship with Ramon Hernandez and the Orioles knew about it. Yet, they still decided to bring him in. The Orioles also are looking like the 4th best team in the AL East. Their farm system has very few good players in it who are at most a year away from being ready. Their pitching staff is young, unproven, and/or sucks. They have good offensive players, but not enough to make up for the pitching problems.

 

If anything, I think the Orioles are a few years away from competing for the AL East again. Tejada is angry at them and would likely be a distraction in the clubhouse if his relationship with Hernandez is as bad as I've heard it to be. Yet, Tejada is also signed to a good contract and has trade value. They could get some top prospects for him, especially pitching, which the Cubs have. However, given that the market for him is not that strong (I'd say it's Boston and Chicago with Atlanta as a dark horse), I don't think that they could reasonably demand a Zambrano or a Prior, if they are set on trading him. I don't think money is the issue with them, either.

 

As for the Phillies, they're in a slightly different bind. It was mentioned earlier in the offseason that the Phillies would like to get out from under two of their three large contracts (Thome, Burrell, and Abreu). They already unloaded Thome, but in the process they got an extra outfielder, causing them to have a bit of a problem in terms of a logjam. Michaels, Rowand, Abreu, Burrell, and Victorino (with Bourne waiting in the wings) all will vie for playing time. Yet, with Burrell and Abreu's contracts, something tells me both will start no matter what, which could be problematic since they might not be able to start their best OFs.

 

Now, in an ideal world, the Phillies would trade Pat Burrell, shift Rowand to left, and play Michaels in CF until Victorino or Bourne are ready next year. However, I reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally don't think there's much of a market for Burrell, especially given his horrifyingly bad contract and his recent inconsistency. They could pawn him off on some team, but they'd still have to consume at least a portion of his contract.

 

Also keep in mind that this is a team that should make a run at the NL East next season if they solidify their bullpen and rotation. They could also use a third baseman and a catcher in the near future. Abreu is the kind of guy who could help plug those holes and the Phillies wouldn't have to pay a dime of his salary. He has two years left and is towards the end of his prime, so they should get good value for him. I think the Cubs could provide the pitching they need as well as some help at 3B (Scott Moore) and C (Geovanny Soto) that could help at a cheap price down the line.

 

I think there's a more reasonable chance they could get a stud pitcher for Abreu than Tejada would, given the market for a RF. There's more of a chance that some team will overpay for Abreu. However, I personally do not feel like he is worth Prior or Zambrano. His age is enough of a factor to make me pause and wonder how much longer he could keep it up.

 

Edit: You know...what's bugging me in this whole situation is the fact that the Astros have been unusually quiet this offseason. Clemens might not return, which should free up money in the budget. They also have some interesting young pitchers (Hirsh, Nieve, Astacio, Magical Wandy, Buchholz).

 

I'm not saying it will happen...but what if the Astros offered Roy Oswalt for Abreu or Tejada? Feasible scenario?

[Backtobanks]

I wouldn't assume either of these clubs are looking to dump salary (maybe the O's should but I don't think they see it that way). I *think* in order to get one guys the Cubs will have to give up an impact player in the majors.

 

i.e. like a Aram for Miggy deal or Wood for Aberu (Yes, I know Wood has a NTC but I'm trying to give an example).

 

I could be wrong, but I thought I'd throw that out there.

 

I think that those teams would be looking for those ideally, but the question of how realistic those expectations are comes up. Long post ahoy!

 

Regarding Tejada, the word is that he has a bad relationship with Ramon Hernandez and the Orioles knew about it. Yet, they still decided to bring him in. The Orioles also are looking like the 4th best team in the AL East. Their farm system has very few good players in it who are at most a year away from being ready. Their pitching staff is young, unproven, and/or sucks. They have good offensive players, but not enough to make up for the pitching problems.

 

If anything, I think the Orioles are a few years away from competing for the AL East again. Tejada is angry at them and would likely be a distraction in the clubhouse if his relationship with Hernandez is as bad as I've heard it to be. Yet, Tejada is also signed to a good contract and has trade value. They could get some top prospects for him, especially pitching, which the Cubs have. However, given that the market for him is not that strong (I'd say it's Boston and Chicago with Atlanta as a dark horse), I don't think that they could reasonably demand a Zambrano or a Prior, if they are set on trading him. I don't think money is the issue with them, either.

 

As for the Phillies, they're in a slightly different bind. It was mentioned earlier in the offseason that the Phillies would like to get out from under two of their three large contracts (Thome, Burrell, and Abreu). They already unloaded Thome, but in the process they got an extra outfielder, causing them to have a bit of a problem in terms of a logjam. Michaels, Rowand, Abreu, Burrell, and Victorino (with Bourne waiting in the wings) all will vie for playing time. Yet, with Burrell and Abreu's contracts, something tells me both will start no matter what, which could be problematic since they might not be able to start their best OFs.

 

Now, in an ideal world, the Phillies would trade Pat Burrell, shift Rowand to left, and play Michaels in CF until Victorino or Bourne are ready next year. However, I reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally don't think there's much of a market for Burrell, especially given his horrifyingly bad contract and his recent inconsistency. They could pawn him off on some team, but they'd still have to consume at least a portion of his contract.

 

Also keep in mind that this is a team that should make a run at the NL East next season if they solidify their bullpen and rotation. They could also use a third baseman and a catcher in the near future. Abreu is the kind of guy who could help plug those holes and the Phillies wouldn't have to pay a dime of his salary. He has two years left and is towards the end of his prime, so they should get good value for him. I think the Cubs could provide the pitching they need as well as some help at 3B (Scott Moore) and C (Geovanny Soto) that could help at a cheap price down the line.

 

I think there's a more reasonable chance they could get a stud pitcher for Abreu than Tejada would, given the market for a RF. There's more of a chance that some team will overpay for Abreu. However, I personally do not feel like he is worth Prior or Zambrano. His age is enough of a factor to make me pause and wonder how much longer he could keep it up.

 

Edit: You know...what's bugging me in this whole situation is the fact that the Astros have been unusually quiet this offseason. Clemens might not return, which should free up money in the budget. They also have some interesting young pitchers (Hirsh, Nieve, Astacio, Magical Wandy, Buchholz).

 

I'm not saying it will happen...but what if the Astros offered Roy Oswalt for Abreu or Tejada? Feasible scenario?

 

I don't think anyone considers Soto or Moore as serious enough prospects to provide any solution "down the line."

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I wouldn't assume either of these clubs are looking to dump salary (maybe the O's should but I don't think they see it that way). I *think* in order to get one guys the Cubs will have to give up an impact player in the majors.

 

i.e. like a Aram for Miggy deal or Wood for Aberu (Yes, I know Wood has a NTC but I'm trying to give an example).

 

I could be wrong, but I thought I'd throw that out there.

 

I think that those teams would be looking for those ideally, but the question of how realistic those expectations are comes up. Long post ahoy!

 

Regarding Tejada, the word is that he has a bad relationship with Ramon Hernandez and the Orioles knew about it. Yet, they still decided to bring him in. The Orioles also are looking like the 4th best team in the AL East. Their farm system has very few good players in it who are at most a year away from being ready. Their pitching staff is young, unproven, and/or sucks. They have good offensive players, but not enough to make up for the pitching problems.

 

If anything, I think the Orioles are a few years away from competing for the AL East again. Tejada is angry at them and would likely be a distraction in the clubhouse if his relationship with Hernandez is as bad as I've heard it to be. Yet, Tejada is also signed to a good contract and has trade value. They could get some top prospects for him, especially pitching, which the Cubs have. However, given that the market for him is not that strong (I'd say it's Boston and Chicago with Atlanta as a dark horse), I don't think that they could reasonably demand a Zambrano or a Prior, if they are set on trading him. I don't think money is the issue with them, either.

 

As for the Phillies, they're in a slightly different bind. It was mentioned earlier in the offseason that the Phillies would like to get out from under two of their three large contracts (Thome, Burrell, and Abreu). They already unloaded Thome, but in the process they got an extra outfielder, causing them to have a bit of a problem in terms of a logjam. Michaels, Rowand, Abreu, Burrell, and Victorino (with Bourne waiting in the wings) all will vie for playing time. Yet, with Burrell and Abreu's contracts, something tells me both will start no matter what, which could be problematic since they might not be able to start their best OFs.

 

Now, in an ideal world, the Phillies would trade Pat Burrell, shift Rowand to left, and play Michaels in CF until Victorino or Bourne are ready next year. However, I reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally don't think there's much of a market for Burrell, especially given his horrifyingly bad contract and his recent inconsistency. They could pawn him off on some team, but they'd still have to consume at least a portion of his contract.

 

Also keep in mind that this is a team that should make a run at the NL East next season if they solidify their bullpen and rotation. They could also use a third baseman and a catcher in the near future. Abreu is the kind of guy who could help plug those holes and the Phillies wouldn't have to pay a dime of his salary. He has two years left and is towards the end of his prime, so they should get good value for him. I think the Cubs could provide the pitching they need as well as some help at 3B (Scott Moore) and C (Geovanny Soto) that could help at a cheap price down the line.

 

I think there's a more reasonable chance they could get a stud pitcher for Abreu than Tejada would, given the market for a RF. There's more of a chance that some team will overpay for Abreu. However, I personally do not feel like he is worth Prior or Zambrano. His age is enough of a factor to make me pause and wonder how much longer he could keep it up.

 

You bring up lots of interesting points. Some I agree with some that I don't....

 

 

If anything, I think the Orioles are a few years away from competing for the AL East again.

 

I agree but I dont think they see it that way. Why do I think this? The Hernandez signing. Maybe as you suggest they won't find an impact player and they are forced to just get prospects but we shall see...

 

 

They could get some top prospects for him, especially pitching, which the Cubs have.

 

The Cubs do not have any top pitching prospects. They have lots interesting arms but nothing A level one of these teams would likely require.

 

 

 

As for the Phillies, they're in a slightly different bind. It was mentioned earlier in the offseason that the Phillies would like to get out from under two of their three large contracts (Thome, Burrell, and Abreu).

 

 

They do have an interesting problem and you bring up points I hadn't considered but there's no way they need to dump salary after getting Thome and not signing Wagner. They want a very good pitcher or they will stand pat, but as you suggest something has to give...

 

 

 

 

I think the Cubs could provide the pitching they need as well as some help at 3B (Scott Moore) and C (Geovanny Soto) that could help at a cheap price down the line.

 

The Phils need a very good pitcher and nothing the Cubs are willing to offer them seem to fit that bill.

 

 

 

However, I personally do not feel like he is worth Prior or Zambrano.

 

I agree.

[Outshined_One]

I don't think anyone considers Soto or Moore as serious enough prospects to provide any solution "down the line."

 

I didn't necessarily say All Star help, mind you.

 

Soto could come in immediately as a backup catcher and be a much cheaper option than Lieberthal. He'd probably at the least match Lieberthal's production and is a very good defensive catcher.

 

Moore, on the other hand, I think would be tempting for the Phillies. He'll be in AA next season and has already come around with his bat. He also has speed. The only knock on him has been his defense and apparently those flaws can be corrected with more reps and coaching.

 

Yes, I do think they will both be productive players down the line. Both are young. Both have a future in baseball. Both are either ML-ready or close to it. I'd imagine the Phillies would have interest in both.

[CubsWin]

The Cubs do not have any top pitching prospects. They have lots interesting arms but nothing A level one of these teams would likely require.

Well, thats one Cardinals fan's opinion.

 

Opinions amongst GMs and scouts obviously will differ, but Mark Pawelek, Rich Hill and Angel Guzman are pitchers who have been and can be called "top" prospects.

[RynoRules]

The defensive spectrum looks like this:

 

 

[ - - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C - - ]

with the basic premise being that positions at the right end of

the spectrum are more difficult than the positions at the left

end of the spectrum. Players can generally move from right

to left along the specturm successfully during their careers.

 

I'd rather have Tejada for this reason: If we have Tejada, we have one of the best offensive players in the game at a position that is lacking good offensive players. With Tejada, we can go out and afford Milton Bradley, those positions would offset and we'd have one of the best lineups in baseball.

 

In my opinion Tejada+Bradley is better than Abreu+Cedeno.

 

I pretty much agree with the above.