The Athletic: Cubs Eying Justin Turner

34 minutes ago, SOFNR said:

It's not a horrible idea. Arenado is still a useful player. He's probably still a 3 win guy right now. He's owed 32 this year, 27 next year, and 15 in 2027. If you could talk the Cardinals into eating 12 this year and 7 next year that's really not a bad contract. But I'd also not want to give up anything of significance. He's not a great hitter anymore. He's projected around 106 wRC+ for 2025. That's actually better then he hit last year. That's around the same area as Matt Shaw is projected, who's a lot cheaper, and probably has a higher ceiling going forward. Compared to Bregman, who was definitely an offensive upgrade, I think I'd be more inclined to just go with the young guy in this situation, rather then taking on a declining veteran for 3 years.

Colorado is on some of that money. I think he has 3 years left at $52M. I don’t think he hurts them too much regarding the LT line. They can afford him and then wait until the TDL to add another pitcher. I like Shaw, but if they can get a proven major leaguer and have the best IF defense in baseball I might be interested. Even a down year from Arenado is probably a good season for Shaw, as a rookie. 

10 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

He’d probably invoke his NTC. 

Why? Cardinals don’t want him. They actually haven’t treated him so great. He took a team friendly contract to save them money. And now they want to trade him. What better place to come to if you want to stick it to them. 

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Why? Cardinals don’t want him. They actually haven’t treated him so great. He took a team friendly contract to save them money. And now they want to trade him. What better place to come to if you want to stick it to them. 

Hasn’t he used it already once this offseason?

It depends of what the Cards want and how much they are willing to eat of that contract. 

Just now, CubinNY said:

Hasn’t he used it already once this offseason?

Arenado nixed a trade to Houston. 

44 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

If not Arenado, there's got to be better options than older than dirt Turner and Robertson.  They're both a waste of resources and may cost the Cubs a win or two.

How is a RP who just threw 70 innings and struck out 1/3 of the batters he faced a waste of resources? Like, oop, he's 40 now, you can't possibly pay him.

I'm not sure I'm a fan of Nolan Arenado moving forward. You can probably make an argument that in a vacuum, in 2025, that he's a much safer bet than Matt Shaw. I can probably get behind that. Defensively he's still pretty good and he has wRC+ above 100 each of the last two seasons. But the issue in Arenado is that is what seems to be a pretty clear decline in offensive ability over his last two years. Essentially, since 2021, you can pick an offensive category: xBA, xSLG, wOBA, EV, max EV, hard hit...and they all have gotten worse two years running. His pitch recognition and swing choices remain very strong, but what he's doing when he makes contact is getting worse and worse. You're not trading for 1 year of Nolan, but three. And the picture the data is suggesting is that we may be getting to a cliff for him offensively, and he's in the process of falling off of it. 

8 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

How is a RP who just threw 70 innings and struck out 1/3 of the batters he faced a waste of resources? Like, oop, he's 40 now, you can't possibly pay him.

I saw the statistics, maybe a bit of a hot take on my part.  Just leery of 40+ plus year olds, don't believe it's a great idea to expect continued success.

After listening to Hoyer on the score, it doesn’t appear they are going to do much, if anything. I think they are going into the season with $25M to spend at the TDL. Which sucks! That means they traded Bellinger to line Tim’s pockets, not spend it elsewhere. And again, that sucks on top of them sucking because they use the LT as a salary cap. Very disappointed if this is the end result. 

5 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

How is a RP who just threw 70 innings and struck out 1/3 of the batters he faced a waste of resources? Like, oop, he's 40 now, you can't possibly pay him.

I was about to say something similar. Sure, he's 40. His numbers last season, when compared to the Cubs bullpen, would have made him 2nd in K/9, 2nd in xFIP, 1st in WAR. He was really really good. It's definitely not fair to expect that sort of success again, but I'd pretty confidently take him over several of the pitchers the Cubs are planning to throw out there. Bullpen projections aren't super reliable, but if the Cubs grabbed Robertson, he'd be projected as the 2nd best reliever on the team. It's also not really much of a risk, since he should come around 1 year 8-10, and the Cubs seemingly don't have much left to spend money on. The idea that he would waste resources and cost the Cubs a win or two is pretty silly.

21 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

After listening to Hoyer on the score, it doesn’t appear they are going to do much, if anything. I think they are going into the season with $25M to spend at the TDL. Which sucks! That means they traded Bellinger to line Tim’s pockets, not spend it elsewhere. And again, that sucks on top of them sucking because they use the LT as a salary cap. Very disappointed if this is the end result. 

I don't really want to listen to Jed talk. What specifically made you think they're done? If the Padres are holding firm I can understand missing out there.  But given the money left over they should absolutely be interested in guys like Robertson, Canha, Turner, Chafin. 

6 minutes ago, SOFNR said:

I don't really want to listen to Jed talk. What specifically made you think they're done? If the Padres are holding firm I can understand missing out there.  But given the money left over they should absolutely be interested in guys like Robertson, Canha, Turner, Chafin. 

He said that the big and medium pieces were all likely here. I doubt the Cubs would entirely shut down a decent trade negotiation, but Jed made it kind of sound like "we mostly like what we have currently" and that as the season went on the Cubs would look to address any issues that would arise. 

Would I rule out Canha/Turner? Nope. Would I expect the Cubs to add anything past a bench piece (in the interim) with his words? Also nope. 

5 minutes ago, SOFNR said:

I don't really want to listen to Jed talk. What specifically made you think they're done? If the Padres are holding firm I can understand missing out there.  But given the money left over they should be absolutely be interested in guys like Robertson, Canha, Turner, Chafin. 

he said the big and medium blocks are already on the team, then used Tyson Miller and Lopez as examples for the types of moves they can do in season

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

He said that the big and medium pieces were all likely here. I doubt the Cubs would entirely shut down a decent trade negotiation, but Jed made it kind of sound like "we mostly like what we have currently" and that as the season went on the Cubs would look to address any issues that would arise. 

Would I rule out Canha/Turner? Nope. Would I expect the Cubs to add anything past a bench piece with his words? Also nope. 

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

he said the big and medium blocks are already on the team, then referenced Tyson Miller and Lopez as potential "opportunistic" moves in season

Thanks. That's definitely a little deflating.

2 minutes ago, SOFNR said:

 

Thanks. That's definitely a little deflating.

I guess. Though in his defense - I'm not sure there's much anything large we could expect. Dennis Lin of the Athletic reported that the Padres are inclined to keep Cease and King, and even if that's posturing, the Padres have held a pretty high line there. So if that's not realistic...there's not much more you really can do that moves a needle that much. 

Yeah, looking back at it maybe you bump up your Tanner Scott offer or even a Blake Snell. Would an increased offer even have landed them though? Some/many guys want to go to the superteam and win a WS. I personally would like Adames, he was never getting a 7-year deal from the Cubs though. Would have liked Polar Bear as well, but I think he wanted to go back to the Mets.

So, I'm irritated that the Cubs didn't open all their money, but I also think Jed strongly upgraded the team this season and I don't see a clear and obvious place we could have put that extra money.  Verlander? Jeff Hoffman maybe? Ha-Seong Kim and move him to 3B?

Yeah that definitely sounds like we can close the book on a big trade.  Don't feel like it foregoes bench/bullpen moves though, especially with Counsell basically saying those were going to happen the day before yesterday.

6 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I guess. Though in his defense - I'm not sure there's much anything large we could expect. Dennis Lin of the Athletic reported that the Padres are inclined to keep Cease and King, and even if that's posturing, the Padres have held a pretty high line there. So if that's not realistic...there's not much more you really can do that moves a needle that much. 

Ah, yah, I think I read your response a little too quickly there. I took it as they were probably even out on a Canha/Turner. They better be atleast doing that. Personally I'll be a little annoyed if they aren't still looking at Robertson/Chafin, but if all of this stuff qualifies as "small moves" then I wont' start whining yet. 🤣

2 minutes ago, SOFNR said:

Ah, yah, I think I read your response a little too quickly there. I took it as they were probably even out on a Canha/Turner. They better be atleast doing that. Personally I'll be a little annoyed if they aren't still looking at Robertson/Chafin, but if all of this stuff qualifies as "small moves" then I wont' start whining yet. 🤣

If you think about it at the very top end a guy like Robertson  might make $12M?  That's 10% of what they were offering to commit to Bregman.  And Turner's certainly going to make less than that.

The semantics leave some wiggle room to disappoint, but this time yesterday our expectation if they didn't come down with Bregman was Turner and another reliever, and I don't think anything he said today contradicts that.

53 minutes ago, Bertz said:

If you think about it at the very top end a guy like Robertson  might make $12M?  That's 10% of what they were offering to commit to Bregman.  And Turner's certainly going to make less than that.

The semantics leave some wiggle room to disappoint, but this time yesterday our expectation if they didn't come down with Bregman was Turner and another reliever, and I don't think anything he said today contradicts that.

I disagree, somewhat. He sounded like this was the team they were going North with. I guess we can say he didn’t mean they won’t go for Robertson or Turner. I guess those can be smal moves. But he sounded like moves were done, period. We can hold onto hope if we want. But for me, personally, I expect the biggest thing they will do is signs bench bat. And it might not even be Turner or Canha. Might end up Dejong. But, hey, on the bright side TR gets to pocket the money he saved by trading Bellinger. I am sure he is happy about that. 

18 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I disagree, somewhat. He sounded like this was the team they were going North with. I guess we can say he didn’t mean they won’t go for Robertson or Turner. I guess those can be smal moves. But he sounded like moves were done, period. We can hold onto hope if we want. But for me, personally, I expect the biggest thing they will do is signs bench bat. And it might not even be Turner or Canha. Might end up Dejong. But, hey, on the bright side TR gets to pocket the money he saved by trading Bellinger. I am sure he is happy about that. 

I'd love to see what quotes from him make you think that.

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

I'd love to see what quotes from him make you think that.

How about we see what the roster is opening day. I say they will be at least $20M below the LT line. Maybe closer to $25M below. So if they do anything it will be small. Maybe we see Robertson or Turner. Not both. Maybe I am making too much of the tone of the interview. It just sounded like there isn’t much going on. It sounded to me that he was losing the expectation bar. Maybe I am wrong. We shall see. 

11 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Colorado is on some of that money. I think he has 3 years left at $52M. I don’t think he hurts them too much regarding the LT line. They can afford him and then wait until the TDL to add another pitcher. I like Shaw, but if they can get a proven major leaguer and have the best IF defense in baseball I might be interested. Even a down year from Arenado is probably a good season for Shaw, as a rookie. 

It’s a green light for me if he’s coming from literally any other team.