Levine: Alex Bregman Open to Short-Term Deals, Cubs Have Talked to Scott Boras About It

4 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

What's done is done, but that would make Jed's luxury tax mishap in 2024 look really bad.

Yeah, but they could reset next season, especially if Tucker walks, which I think he does.  Lots more prospects coming up in the next year or 2.

4 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Perhaps, but they have to do that AND leave wiggle room for a mid-season move or two.  The math isn't impossible, but I think it becomes extremely difficult.

It's possible. I do think any Bregman deal makes it fairly likely that Hoerner is traded...eventually this year. Which would further clear up some more wiggle room under the LT. 

I'm interested in what the Cubs are going for here. Feels like we should know Bregmans choice in the next day or so. But I've felt that way for almost 3 or 4 days. So who knows?

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

It's possible. I do think any Bregman deal makes it fairly likely that Hoerner is traded...eventually this year. Which would further clear up some more wiggle room under the LT.

True, the Cubs could keep Nico for half this season so they have depth for the middle infield with the question marks around Shaw (rookie unknowns) and the surgery recovery for Dansby/Nico.

It doesn't make sense right now to trade one 4 WAR guy in Nico for a much more expensive 4 WAR guy when their replacement would both be Matt Shaw.

Am I reading this correctly that the Dodgers are paying some of Brasier’s $4.5M? Even more evidence Jed is saving every penny to make Bregman work if so 

That really would be an incredibly deep lineup. 

C- Amaya

1B- Busch

2B- Nico 

SS- Dansby

3B- Bregman

RF- Tucker

CF- PCA

LF- Happ

DH- Seiya

That's a really good line up and if PCA and Amaya are anything resembling their 2024 2nd halves, it's got top 5 potential.

Getting too far out over my skies here but I'm not sure what the framework of a mid-season Nico Hoerner trade is. Are we to believe that Shaw is going to prove himself in pretty limited opportunities to the extent we would be comfortable trading Hoerner for straight prospects to a contender? If not, are we going to be that good that we're willing to risk that downgrade without seriously impacting our playoff (or first round bye) hopes? Both of those seem pretty low probability, which means you're left trying to go find major league talent to offset the Hoerner loss, and I can't see a rebuilding team being too enamored by 14 months of Hoerner, and I can't see a contending team trading away legitimate talent while taking on extra money.

There's, of course, the other outcome, which is that we suck and all our 2026 expiration guys are for sale, but if that's the case you can probably say goodbye to Tucker wanting to sign here long term anyways. But let's not think about that. 

The thing is if they don’t sign Bregman what are they saving money for? Ricketts bank account? There isn’t anything left to spend it on? Pivetta? Canha? I doubt they do either. So they actually just save the money they got by trading Bellinger for salary relief. Which I really don’t like. 

Are you allowed to do something like 4 years of $20m with opt-outs and an opt-out bonus of $15m so you are pushing some of that money into 26/27?

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The thing is if they don’t sign Bregman what are they saving money for? Ricketts bank account? There isn’t anything left to spend it on? Pivetta? Canha? I doubt they do either. So they actually just save the money they got by trading Bellinger for salary relief. Which I really don’t like. 

At this point you have to keep the money free and try to get Bregman. If you don’t get him, use the extra $30 mil at the trade deadline.

8 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

That really would be an incredibly deep lineup. 

C- Amaya

1B- Busch

2B- Nico 

SS- Dansby

3B- Bregman

RF- Tucker

CF- PCA

LF- Happ

DH- Seiya

That's a really good line up and if PCA and Amaya are anything resembling their 2024 2nd halves, it's got top 5 potential.

Agree.  Potential batting order:

Happ

Seiya

Tucker

Bregman

Busch

Swanson

Nico

Amaya/Kelly

PCA

Just now, Wilson A2000 said:

At this point you have to keep the money free and try to get Bregman. If you don’t get him, use the extra $30 mil at the trade deadline.

But there's no player on the planet that would fill up that $30m hole when you're trading for him halfway through the year. 

I think your main focus is still the staring contest with the Padres for King or Cease. One of them replacing Rea is the biggest WAR increase you can find, and it leaves you a lot more flexibility, both mid-season and long term, than a Bregman deal does. It's going to cost us some Iowa capital, but at some point you need to push those chips in.

2 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

At this point you have to keep the money free and try to get Bregman. If you don’t get him, use the extra $30 mil at the trade deadline.

$30M at the deadline is overkill. We are talking about paying someone for 1/3 of the season. Sure, would be nice to get whoever you really want at that time. But they don’t need that much. So why all the penny pinching until now? If they sign Bregman I understand. But if they keep, why? Isn’t it possible if they ate more of Bellinger’s contract they could have gotten a better return? Or having the Astros kick in $5.5M. Maybe had they not did that they would have been able to trade a lesser prospect. 

17 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Getting too far out over my skies here but I'm not sure what the framework of a mid-season Nico Hoerner trade is. Are we to believe that Shaw is going to prove himself in pretty limited opportunities to the extent we would be comfortable trading Hoerner for straight prospects to a contender? If not, are we going to be that good that we're willing to risk that downgrade without seriously impacting our playoff (or first round bye) hopes? Both of those seem pretty low probability, which means you're left trying to go find major league talent to offset the Hoerner loss, and I can't see a rebuilding team being too enamored by 14 months of Hoerner, and I can't see a contending team trading away legitimate talent while taking on extra money.

There's, of course, the other outcome, which is that we suck and all our 2026 expiration guys are for sale, but if that's the case you can probably say goodbye to Tucker wanting to sign here long term anyways. But let's not think about that. 

My best stab at it would be something akin to this:

Matt Shaw continues to either do everything asked for him in Iowa, making progress in the exact ways you'd hope, or being forced to play real time shows hes mostly ready. The Cubs are good enough in which they feel comfortable taking a slight hit from Hoerner to Shaw, or don't feel as though the drop off is concerning.

They're capable of moving Hoerner to a contending team in need a of a 2b (either through injury or ineptitude). I'd assume it's for prospects but we did see a Morel-for-Parades swap so maybe it's not impossible to get MLB for MLB talent, but lets be safe and assume prospects. The Cubs then trade for their favorite rental SP and come away feeling they profited making more on a Hoerner trade than the subsequent SP trade while confident in Shaw the rest of the way. 

It feels like a narrow landing strip of course. But the Hoerner trade scenarios always have been. 

What I'll say is that Hoyer always feels a bit calculating in that there's a patience and a willingness to wait things out. He doesn't give off rash vibes. So I'd guess that if they end up with Bregman that the plan is to keep Hoerner but continue to be opportunistic in that they'd be open to moving him sometime in the year. You'd assume there'd be a market for him at almost any moment, and a pretty decent one. So the question would come back to Matt Shaw and just how the team feels about what he's capable of doing and how far the drop is. 

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The thing is if they don’t sign Bregman what are they saving money for? Ricketts bank account? There isn’t anything left to spend it on? Pivetta? Canha? I doubt they do either. So they actually just save the money they got by trading Bellinger for salary relief. Which I really don’t like. 

I agree, there isn't anything too meaningful to spend on in FA if they're out on Robertson and the pen is basically set.  Pivetta with the QO isn't that great at all, and I think that's definitely hurting him in FA, i'd be PO'd if I were him LOL.

Trades are possible but I don't see them bleeding Iowa for Cease etc.  Maybe some guys in the low minors they'd trade, like Rojas.

If they want a 8-10m cushion under the LT then they only have about 22-24m left to spend.

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

$30M at the deadline is overkill. We are talking about paying someone for 1/3 of the season. Sure, would be nice to get whoever you really want at that time. But they don’t need that much. So why all the penny pinching until now? If they sign Bregman I understand. But if they keep, why? Isn’t it possible if they ate more of Bellinger’s contract they could have gotten a better return? Or having the Astros kick in $5.5M. Maybe had they not did that they would have been able to trade a lesser prospect. 

It's very possible they're waiting out Boras again on Bregman like they did on Bellinger.  Jed won that round and might win this too.  Reports the Tigers are still in on Bregman could be false.

I think the fact that Bregman still isn't signed anywhere is a good indication his market is weak.  If there was a good 4+ year deal out there he'd be signed already.

Bellinger was going into age 28 year when he signed and Bregman will be 31 all season, that's 3 prime years and significant.

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So why all the penny pinching until now? If they sign Bregman I understand. But if they keep, why? Isn’t it possible if they ate more of Bellinger’s contract they could have gotten a better return? Or having the Astros kick in $5.5M. Maybe had they not did that they would have been able to trade a lesser prospect. 

I mean, to be clear, I'd rather have Hoyer sitting there with $30m to spend and 7 weeks till the regular season vs a different non-major league player from the Yankees (they weren't giving up MLB talent) or the prospect we sent for Pressly who's name I already forgot. Sure I'll be pissed if they end up putting it in their pocket, but A. there's a lot of time left and B. I'm certainly not going to lose sleep over the minutiae of the Pressly and Bellinger trades. 

6 minutes ago, Stratos said:

It's very possible they're waiting out Boras again on Bregman like they did on Bellinger.  Jed won that round and might win this too.  Reports the Tigers are still in on Bregman could be false.

I think the fact that Bregman still isn't signed anywhere is a good indication his market is weak.  If there was a good 4+ year deal out there he'd be signed already.

Bellinger was going into age 28 year when he signed and Bregman will be 31 all season, that's 3 prime years and significant.

Have there been any reports about the Astro's 6/150ish deal being taken off the table? I think him having that as a backstop is going to limit how cheaply Jed is going to be able to go.

I'm not a fan of this, but it's a little funny that Hoyer could make Bregman's position a lot worse by....trading Hoerner to the Astros. They get their 4 fWAR infielder for less money/prospects, guessing that Bregman offer goes away pretty quick. 

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

$30M at the deadline is overkill. We are talking about paying someone for 1/3 of the season.

Agree.  If you're going to spend money spend it now and be better for 6 months rather than 2 months.  Even deadline money is a bit silly, just spend the money for the 6 months and keep like 5m for those small roster moves and callups every team does throughout the year.

If Bregman becomes a non option . Chafin, Robertson , Finnegan all could vastly upgrade the pen for less than 10M in addition to what they have already added. 

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Have there been any reports about the Astro's 6/150ish deal being taken off the table? I think him having that as a backstop is going to limit how cheaply Jed is going to be able to go.

I'm not a fan of this, but it's a little funny that Hoyer could make Bregman's position a lot worse by....trading Hoerner to the Astros. They get their 4 fWAR infielder for less money/prospects, guessing that Bregman offer goes away pretty quick. 

A bit weird to trade for Paredes and Cam Smith if you're optimistic or even planning on keeping Bregman.  I don't see it happening.  Paredes has no position.

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Have there been any reports about the Astro's 6/150ish deal being taken off the table? I think him having that as a backstop is going to limit how cheaply Jed is going to be able to go.

I'm not a fan of this, but it's a little funny that Hoyer could make Bregman's position a lot worse by....trading Hoerner to the Astros. They get their 4 fWAR infielder for less money/prospects, guessing that Bregman offer goes away pretty quick. 

I have no issue with trading Bellinger and trading for Pressley. What I am saying is if they kicked in $10M when trading Bellinger and took all of Pressley’s contract, maybe they get a better prospect from the Yankees and give up a lesser prospect to the Astros and have $20M to spend still. If that money ends up in Ricketts pocket that sucks. That is all I am saying. 

26 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I have no issue with trading Bellinger and trading for Pressley. What I am saying is if they kicked in $10M when trading Bellinger and took all of Pressley’s contract, maybe they get a better prospect from the Yankees and give up a lesser prospect to the Astros and have $20M to spend still. If that money ends up in Ricketts pocket that sucks. That is all I am saying. 

Understood. Just saying at this exact point I'll take the financial flexibility over the potential change in low level prospects. And ultimately if the money ends up in Ricketts' pockets, I'm going to allocate most of that blame to Ricketts himself, not Hoyer painting himself into an unspendable corner or whatever. But I'm aware I'm a Hoyer apologist, so take that with a grain of salt. 

30 minutes ago, Stratos said:

A bit weird to trade for Paredes and Cam Smith if you're optimistic or even planning on keeping Bregman.  I don't see it happening.  Paredes has no position.

The rumor was, in a Bregman reunion, Paredes to first or second and something about Altuve moving to left field (I guess anyone can play left field in that park?). I don't really get it either, unless you buy into the theory that Houston just really wanted Paredes for his batted ball profile and didn't particularly care about the position fit. 

Is there a deal with San Diego possible that involves Cease for Nico +? He would fit there. He could play SS. Xander can play 2B. Cronenworth 1B. Arraez DH / 2B / possibly some LF since that looks like a weak spot for SD. Arraez hasn’t played LF much at all, and none since 2021, but in a SSS he was above average out there. 
 

Im sure it doesn’t really work. Just spitballing. Adding Bregman and Cease definitely puts us over the tax or right there at it. Cease will make close to $2M more than Nico this year. 
 

Look at me getting greedy lol. Conceivably if (and I know it’s not going to happen) Jed could pull that off, you could try to dump Jamo. Cease, Shota, Steele, Boyd, Rea, Birdsell, Wicks, Brown, Assad is better than that same rotation with Jamo instead of Cease. Obviously it would be even better with Cease AND Jamo, but in this scenario you still have a better overall rotation and Jamo’s $$$ off the books allowing you to get Bregman and Cease and stay under the tax. 

2 hours ago, JD94 said:

Is there a deal with San Diego possible that involves Cease for Nico +? He would fit there. He could play SS. Xander can play 2B. Cronenworth 1B. Arraez DH / 2B / possibly some LF since that looks like a weak spot for SD. Arraez hasn’t played LF much at all, and none since 2021, but in a SSS he was above average out there. 
 

Im sure it doesn’t really work. Just spitballing. Adding Bregman and Cease definitely puts us over the tax or right there at it. Cease will make close to $2M more than Nico this year. 
 

Look at me getting greedy lol. Conceivably if (and I know it’s not going to happen) Jed could pull that off, you could try to dump Jamo. Cease, Shota, Steele, Boyd, Rea, Birdsell, Wicks, Brown, Assad is better than that same rotation with Jamo instead of Cease. Obviously it would be even better with Cease AND Jamo, but in this scenario you still have a better overall rotation and Jamo’s $$$ off the books allowing you to get Bregman and Cease and stay under the tax. 

I'm not sure 2 years of Nico for 1 year of Cease is a good trade.