Cubs Telling Potential Trade Partners They're Undecided On Selling At Deadline

Mervis + Bridsell for Baty. When Pete leaves, they give Mervis a long runway.  

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Trueblood made a post with some anecdata that Morel hits the ball to CF too much and so he's not actually unlucky and all the people who want to be mad at him have latched onto that as their excuse for why he is actually a bad hitter.  The data doesn't actually hold up though.

Why do you say the data doesn't hold up?  Lower EV, higher contact rates out of the strike zone, and more fly balls to CF all seem to fit together to explain the big wOBA/xwOBA gap.

I still would like to see if they could pry Kyle Teel away from Boston. 

I don't think Chris Morel is a bad hitter. I don't think he's capable of playing third base, I don't think his overall skill set is enough to warrant any discussion where he takes second base from Nico, and I don't think his bat is elite enough, even if the luck turns, to hand him the DH job, especially when you've got Suzuki already here and producing the numbers Morel is thus far only expected to have. I think there is a chance that other teams might think he's playable at second base (or would be willing to try him in a corner outfield role), that there's a chance they think his bat is better than their options at DH, or that he's still just more reps away from improving as a fielder, and they're a couple years away and he's got tons of team control. As an example, the Red Sox have a team .701 OPS from the DH spot, a .559 OPS from 2B (-1.6 fWAR combined), and a 52% chance to make the playoffs.  If other teams value him higher than we do, we should consider trading him, even if he's still a pretty safe bet to be among the 13 best offensive players in the org on opening day next year. 

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I don't think Chris Morel is a bad hitter. I don't think he's capable of playing third base, I don't think his overall skill set is enough to warrant any discussion where he takes second base from Nico, and I don't think his bat is elite enough, even if the luck turns, to hand him the DH job, especially when you've got Suzuki already here and producing the numbers Morel is thus far only expected to have. I think there is a chance that other teams might think he's playable at second base (or would be willing to try him in a corner outfield role), that there's a chance they think his bat is better than their options at DH, or that he's still just more reps away from improving as a fielder, and they're a couple years away and he's got tons of team control. As an example, the Red Sox have a team .701 OPS from the DH spot, a .559 OPS from 2B (-1.6 fWAR combined), and a 52% chance to make the playoffs.  If other teams value him higher than we do, we should consider trading him, even if he's still a pretty safe bet to be among the 13 best offensive players in the org on opening day next year. 

So basically you are saying he is more of a 10th man if they keep him. That could be a very valuable person on the Cubs. He can fill in occasionally at all infield positions, and corner outfield but mainly DH. And not a regular. But a guy like that can get 350-400AB. And he would improve the bench. So I can see the point of keeping him. However, if trading him brings the Cubs an everyday catcher like Wong next season, or a high prospect like Teel this season, I am all for trading him. I know he, alone, won’t bring Teel now. But maybe him + does. As I have said before, I am on the fence on him. I can see both arguments. The only thing I do not want to see is him traded for next to nothing. And I am confident that won’t happen. 

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So basically you are saying he is more of a 10th man if they keep him. That could be a very valuable person on the Cubs. He can fill in occasionally at all infield positions, and corner outfield but mainly DH. And not a regular. But a guy like that can get 350-400AB. And he would improve the bench. So I can see the point of keeping him. However, if trading him brings the Cubs an everyday catcher like Wong next season, or a high prospect like Teel this season, I am all for trading him. I know he, alone, won’t bring Teel now. But maybe him + does. As I have said before, I am on the fence on him. I can see both arguments. The only thing I do not want to see is him traded for next to nothing. And I am confident that won’t happen. 

He's a more valuable version of Patrick Wisdom

Just now, Derwood said:

He's a more valuable version of Patrick Wisdom

I would say WAY more valuable. To me, Wisdom should be dfa. Morel also has a possibility of getting better. Wisdom is not going to get better. 

Morel has expected slash of .248/.345/.468 which is a middle of the order bat (Seiya Suzuki OPS) – if – you have reason to believe he's underperforming solely due to misfortune and not that he has a predictable spray chart; i admittedly haven't dove into this enough to have a strong take either way but i still think there's enough in his bat that we have to find him regular PA until there are clear better options internally

Jesus Tinoco?

I’m not going to get into some no win argument about the merits of expected stats, but if we’re using those as gospel then we should also be trying to dump Cody bellinger (who i was told repeatedly to ignore xwOBA) immediately. Can’t have it both ways. 

58 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Why do you say the data doesn't hold up?  Lower EV, higher contact rates out of the strike zone, and more fly balls to CF all seem to fit together to explain the big wOBA/xwOBA gap.

He isn't hitting nearly enough balls to CF to account for that gap.  And the lower EV/more balls hit OOZ would be captured in launch angle and exit velo and be accounted for in that xwOBA.

Apologies for the horrendous formatting, but this is Morel's balls to pull/center/oppo by batted ball type.

Barrels - 39% / 52% / 10%

Non Barrel FBs/LDs - 46% / 31% / 23%

Pop-ups- 12% / 38% / 50%

Groundballs - 61% / 33 % / 6%

Here are the league numbers

Barrels- 45% / 52% / 14%

Non Barrel FBs/LDs - 30% / 37% / 34%

Popups - 20% / 23% / 56%

Groundballs - 49% / 39% / 13%

Aha!  Morel's hitting more barrels to CF.  However difference between Morel's 52% and a more league average 41% is between 2 and 3 Barrels.  That's not enough to account for 60 points of wOBA.  It also doesn't account for the fact that Morel is hitting WAY more non-barrel fly balls to his pull side than the league average, which is the exact same secret sauce guys like Bellinger and Paredes are thought to have to exceed their x stats.  It also doesn't account for the fact that Morel underperforms in every batted ball type:

Barrels - 1.260 wOBA / 1.463 xwOBA

Non Barrel FBs/LDs - .284 wOBA / .385 xwOBA

Pop-ups- .000 wOBA / .020 xwOBA

Groundballs - .205 wOBA / .247 xwOBA

If he was on 29 other teams we'd all be saying "this guy has been ludicrously unlucky. we should buy low on him."  Because the fanbase is mad at the team this year they're tying themselves into any knot they can to avoid chalking up any failure up as not being foreseeable and part of a bad process.

I wanted to sell high on Morel over the offseason and let some other team try to turn him into a fielder.

Selling now would be stupid. His value is at an all-time low. His current production is worthless, and the only value we'd get is based on him potentially rebounding. Trading him now gets us what, maybe a 40 FV prospect or two? Some low minors lotto tickets?

Morel's upside represents more than we'd get for him. We aren't really playing for anything. So let's just ride this out and see where it takes us.

He's such an enigma

2023 vs. 2024

K% better
BB% better
ISO worse
BABIP waaay worse
wOBA worse
xwOBA better
 

23 minutes ago, Rob said:

I wanted to sell high on Morel over the offseason and let some other team try to turn him into a fielder.

Selling now would be stupid. His value is at an all-time low. His current production is worthless, and the only value we'd get is based on him potentially rebounding. Trading him now gets us what, maybe a 40 FV prospect or two? Some low minors lotto tickets?

Morel's upside represents more than we'd get for him. We aren't really playing for anything. So let's just ride this out and see where it takes us.

Couple things, 1) I'd be willing to bet Morel has way more value than a single 40 FV prospect, 2) His value can and will get lower the more service time he eats up and the lack of playing time he'll see in the future when/if the Cubs decide to get actual baseball players to fill the voids on the field.

17 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Why on earth are people so damn afraid of trading a "decent backup," which is a stretch considering he's a replacement level player as it stands, for a potential decent starter?

If someone else wants to make a trade, you should always be wary of it. It means you have either properly valued or undervalued your own commodity. Due diligence requires making sure which.

35 minutes ago, Rob said:

I wanted to sell high on Morel over the offseason and let some other team try to turn him into a fielder.

Selling now would be stupid. His value is at an all-time low. His current production is worthless, and the only value we'd get is based on him potentially rebounding. Trading him now gets us what, maybe a 40 FV prospect or two? Some low minors lotto tickets?

Morel's upside represents more than we'd get for him. We aren't really playing for anything. So let's just ride this out and see where it takes us.

He's an improved hitter over last year by a vast majority of the advanced metrics and every other team in baseball is more than capable of seeing that. Teams don't trade for players because they are riding hot BABIP streaks.

8 minutes ago, Bull said:

If someone else wants to make a trade, you should always be wary of it. It means you have either properly valued or undervalued your own commodity. Due diligence requires making sure which.

That makes absolutely no sense. You are saying no one ever makes fair offers or overpays for an immediate need? What dream world are you living in?

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

That makes absolutely no sense. You are saying no one ever makes fair offers?

No im saying you may have properly valued your commodity (fair offer). I’m saying they may see hidden value in your commodity that you don’t. (Not an “unfair” offer, but an unequal one). It’s on you to figure out which. Buyer beware. Whoever it was that was calling him out for being afraid doesn’t know the difference between afraid and beware.

Of course they see hidden value. The discussion was Morel playing 2B for the Red Sox in exhange for Kyle Teel. Morel is never going to start at 2B for the Cubs. It's not beware... It's aware.

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Of course they see hidden value. The discussion was Morel playing 2B for the Red Sox in exhange for Kyle Teel. Morel is never going to start at 2B for the Cubs. It's not beware... It's aware.

It's a trade I'll do in a heartbeat. Or send him to Seattle for Harry Ford. But Teel has done well this season in the minors.

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Of course they see hidden value. The discussion was Morel playing 2B for the Red Sox in exhange for Kyle Teel. Morel is never going to start at 2B for the Cubs. It's not beware... It's aware.

You said “Why on earth are people so damn afraid of trading a "decent backup," which is a stretch considering he's a replacement level player as it stands, for a potential decent starter?

I’m saying you are blind to the value Morel has. Be a little more diligent.

1 minute ago, Bull said:

You said “Why on earth are people so damn afraid of trading a "decent backup," which is a stretch considering he's a replacement level player as it stands, for a potential decent starter?

 

I’m saying you are blind to the value Morel has. Be a little more diligent.

Tom?

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

He isn't hitting nearly enough balls to CF to account for that gap.  And the lower EV/more balls hit OOZ would be captured in launch angle and exit velo and be accounted for in that xwOBA.

Apologies for the horrendous formatting, but this is Morel's balls to pull/center/oppo by batted ball type.

Barrels - 39% / 52% / 10%

Non Barrel FBs/LDs - 46% / 31% / 23%

Pop-ups- 12% / 38% / 50%

Groundballs - 61% / 33 % / 6%

Here are the league numbers

Barrels- 45% / 52% / 14%

Non Barrel FBs/LDs - 30% / 37% / 34%

Popups - 20% / 23% / 56%

Groundballs - 49% / 39% / 13%

Aha!  Morel's hitting more barrels to CF.  However difference between Morel's 52% and a more league average 41% is between 2 and 3 Barrels.  That's not enough to account for 60 points of wOBA.  It also doesn't account for the fact that Morel is hitting WAY more non-barrel fly balls to his pull side than the league average, which is the exact same secret sauce guys like Bellinger and Paredes are thought to have to exceed their x stats.  It also doesn't account for the fact that Morel underperforms in every batted ball type:

Barrels - 1.260 wOBA / 1.463 xwOBA

Non Barrel FBs/LDs - .284 wOBA / .385 xwOBA

Pop-ups- .000 wOBA / .020 xwOBA

Groundballs - .205 wOBA / .247 xwOBA

If he was on 29 other teams we'd all be saying "this guy has been ludicrously unlucky. we should buy low on him."  Because the fanbase is mad at the team this year they're tying themselves into any knot they can to avoid chalking up any failure up as not being foreseeable and part of a bad process.

Thanks for doing the math.  I'm still on the "he's been insanely unlucky" train, but the longer it continues, the more I'll look for explanations because he's just so insanely underperforming expectations based on most data points.

I think, setting aside the batted ball stuff, now's probably not the time to trade Morel.  The 3B market this winter is basically just Paredes and Bregman.  If you are pulling down one of them then yeah sure Morel is expendable. 

Otherwise I think you probably go internal at 3B, i.e. Shaw, and use your resources on the other roster holes.  The problem is that even if Shaw goes to Iowa on Friday and crushes for the next two months, there's some pretty significant downside risk heading into next year with him penciled in.  And if Morel's also gone, you once again are looking at a situation where your backup plan at the position is some sort of Mastrobuoni platoon.

I don't think Morel is long term for the roster, but I think he's got another 1-1.5 seasons before he makes sense to be dealt

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think, setting aside the batted ball stuff, now's probably not the time to trade Morel.  The 3B market this winter is basically just Paredes and Bregman.  If you are pulling down one of them then yeah sure Morel is expendable. 

Otherwise I think you probably go internal at 3B, i.e. Shaw, and use your resources on the other roster holes.  The problem is that even if Shaw goes to Iowa on Friday and crushes for the next two months, there's some pretty significant downside risk heading into next year with him penciled in.  And if Morel's also gone, you once again are looking at a situation where your backup plan at the position is some sort of Mastrobuoni platoon.

I don't think Morel is long term for the roster, but I think he's got another 1-1.5 seasons before he makes sense to be dealt

Another 1-1 1/2 years will really make him worthless as trade bait.  At least now other teams might see some potential on what he did last year.