Cubs interested in Pirates Closer Bednar

To be clear, I don't think anyone is 100% "hoarding prospects". I do think there is some overvaluing of what are essentially lottery tickets. Maybe it's short-sighted on my part, but I value a 24-year old with 2+ years of great MLB numbers over a 22-year old with zero MLB track record. 

7 minutes ago, Derwood said:

To be clear, I don't think anyone is 100% "hoarding prospects". I do think there is some overvaluing of what are essentially lottery tickets. Maybe it's short-sighted on my part, but I value a 24-year old with 2+ years of great MLB numbers over a 22-year old with zero MLB track record. 

Don't think that's short sighted or wrong at all.  I agree with that, too!  The reality of prospects is that each prospect is more likely to fail than to succeed.  I'm the "prospect guy" generally, and even I think this is true.  

With that said, I don't wan to sell high value prospects for short term gains just to make 2023 feel more fun regardless of the value of that prospect.  There's a goldilocks zone where I'm all in; trading the right prospects for the right MLB talent.  Guys like Horton and Alcantara have unicorn upside (we can discuss their risks, for sure)...I wouldn't give them up for a RP, for example.  But I'd give them up for a 24 3b who's a good bet to be 3 fWAR over a handful of seasons.  IDK who that is, I'm not saying I know who that is, but there's situations in which I'd expend Horton (who I truly believe is going to be a devastating MLB SP if he avoids injury) and Alcantara (While a bit away, has a really unique skillset) and there are ones I wouldn't.  You want to use those prospects in value deals if you have to.  Horton is about as close to "untouchable" as PCA is, in my world.  Alcantara more available, but only in elite deals.  

David Bednar has been elite the last 3 years. He’s thrown a total of 152 innings and has a total of a 4.5 fWAR. Cade Horton could most likely get you very close to that same value in 1 year. So no.. I’m not giving up one of the best pitching prospects in the game for a reliever that’s giving me ~1fWAR a year. It blows my mind how anybody could be okay with that. This isn’t a 2016 Chapman scenario. 

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Don't think that's short sighted or wrong at all.  I agree with that, too!  The reality of prospects is that each prospect is more likely to fail than to succeed.  I'm the "prospect guy" generally, and even I think this is true.  

 

With that said, I don't wan to sell high value prospects for short term gains just to make 2023 feel more fun.  There's a goldilocks zone where I'm all in; trading the right prospects for the right MLB talent.  Guys like Horton and Alcantara have unicorn upside (we can discuss their risks, for sure)...I wouldn't give them up for a RP, for example.  But I'd give them up for a 24 3b who's a good bet to be 3 fWAR over a handful of seasons.  IDK who that is, I'm not saying I know who that is, but there's situations in which I'd expend Horton (who I truly believe is going to be a devastating MLB SP if he avoids injury) and Alcantara (While a bit away, has a really unique skillset) and there are situations that feel like fans just wanting something now regardless of what it costs that I'm wary of. 

I honestly don't know enough about our prospects to argue on a per-prospect basis, but isn't the value of Bednar that he's only 24 and is under control for several years? Plus he's getting better each year (fWAR of 1.2, 1.5 and already 1.8 so far this season)? 

Again, I don't know that you expend top assets for him, but Bednar seems to be more than a 7th inning rental

Just now, Derwood said:

 

I honestly don't know enough about our prospects to argue on a per-prospect basis, but isn't the value of Bednar that he's only 24 and is under control for several years? Plus he's getting better each year (fWAR of 1.2, 1.5 and already 1.8 so far this season)? 

Again, I don't know that you expend top assets for him, but Bednar seems to be more than a 7th inning rental

Bednar is going to cost a ton.  He's been a 1.8 fWAR player in 2023.  I think that's a bit high; his xFIP is 3.70, because he has a 2.0% HR/FB%.  That's likely impossible to retain, so he's going to give up HR's.  He's never been this kind of xFIP beater.  So I'll use his 202 data to be fair to him and his value; 1.5 fWAR. 

So what does 1.5 fWAR cost over 3 years?  Well, that's 4.5 fWAR.  So what's the free-market for 4.5fWAR?  It's hard to tell.  It used to be $7-$8m per fWAR, but inflation exists, and this is higher now than it was.  So let's bump to $9m per to be safe, though this might be kind of low (elite fWAR per roster spot is worth more, realistically).  At $4.5 fWAR that's something like $40m in surplus.  Jordan Wicks is like, $25m in surplus.  So you'd need basically, two Jordan Wicks type prospects, just to get David Bednar. Wicks profiles as an upside #3 SP in AAA already.  He's a good prospect.  Not untradable, but good.  But we know RP's are super volatile.  Do you trade two 50 FV prospects for one David Bednar knowing he probably doesn't finish the job?  That's a lot.  

I'm pro-trading-prospects.  But the value has to match.  Right now, Bednar is good, but just doesn't match what it'd cost.  We can do better.

Using WAR underestimates the value of high-leverage relievers

5 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

A couple things:

On the whole relievers have thrown as high as 50+% of MLB innings this decade, and even before the pandemic were crawling up to 45%. They most definitely impact games, arguably more than ever. You won't find a top team in MLB these days with a high performing baseball filled with hard throwers. From there Bednar's been a stable ML pitcher over the past 3 years: 97, 31% CSW, 33% chase, 16-18% SwStrK% and all at pre-FA prices until 2027

- The Cubs' bullpen, like anyone's bullpen midseason, is a hole. They're 18th in fWAR, 20th in WPA, 13th in FIP, 13th in xFIP, 19th in chase, and could always throw harder (9th) and miss more bats (9th). This bullpen could most definitely use a big addition

It certainly could.  Don't disagree.  But the Cubs have done a wonderful job finding useful RP's for basically nothing.  Merryiweather, Alzolay, Fulmer, Leiter JR.  The found Tepera, they found Robertson.  Why would the Cubs, a team capable of finding useful arms for cheap, suddenly pay the premium for a RP when the cost/benefit doesn't match?  

Just now, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Using WAR underestimates the value of high-leverage relievers

Does it?  Please prove that.  

I just valued David Bednar as two 50 FV prospects. That's a pretty high valuation.  

and xFIP isn't exactly in love with Wicks either.  The word "upside" is doing a *lot* of work in calling Wicks a No. 3 SP in the majors.

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Does it?  Please prove that.  

 

I just valued David Bednar as two 50 FV prospects. That's a pretty high valuation.  

K.

"Leverage exists and managers can choose when to use relievers."

There, I just proved it.

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It certainly could.  Don't disagree.  But the Cubs have done a wonderful job finding useful RP's for basically nothing.  Merryiweather, Alzolay, Fulmer, Leiter JR.  The found Tepera, they found Robertson.  Why would the Cubs, a team capable of finding useful arms for cheap, suddenly pay the premium for a RP when the cost/benefit doesn't match?  

Because in order to find those relievers, they've also cycled through a lot of bad relievers. Having someone you already know is good sidesteps that problem.

Just now, Hairyducked Idiot said:

K.

"Leverage exists and managers can choose when to use relievers."

There, I just proved it.

That isn't "proof" so much as you just kind of made up a quote from no one, then pretended you "proved" something.  You stated that WAR undervalues relievers.  I'd need to seem some data to prove that.  

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

That isn't "proof" so much as you just kind of made up a quote from no one, then pretended you "proved" something.  You stated that WAR undervalues relievers.  I'd need to seem some data to prove that.  

If you take the "Wins Above Replacement" literally, then you can argue that an elite, high leverage reliever is worth more than 1-2 extra wins in a year

Jesus Christ you people have me agreeing with Kyle/Tom. 
 

What happened to you?

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

We're speaking relatively here but Bednar's an elite ML reliever with all the bells and whistles under team control for 3+ seasons. The Cubs probably have to give up a CF defender with a 51% GB rate and .452 SLG in High A to get him. That's cheap, even very cheap

Yeah, we'll have to entirely disagree with that valuation of Kevin Alcantara here.  I think Alcantara is a pretty wonderful prospect.  There's some risk here, but he's been figuring things out the last month.  I can't tell you how to view prospects, it's subjective, but he's someone who's posted a whopping 218 wRC+ over his last 80 PAs, a shrinking K% (under 24%) a far increased walk rate (14.9%) a much more refined approach, and 14 xBH in that span.  Development isn't linear and Alcantara, right up to an unfortunate calf strain was suggesting that he had figured out A+.  It's not enough for me to say definitively, but this is also a similar path many Cub prospects have followed over the last few seasons.  A month or two of struggles followed by a significant break out.  We'll see where go from here, but I think we should be very careful on using season long data here.

4 minutes ago, Derwood said:

If you take the "Wins Above Replacement" literally, then you can argue that an elite, high leverage reliever is worth more than 1-2 extra wins in a year

Maybe they aren't.  

RP's are super volatile.  They don't pitch a ton.  I don't think that fWAR should be taken entirely literally, but I also think we have to understand that maybe high leverage RP's are more valuable on the margins than they are in general.  

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Bednar is 9th in WPA, just behind Ryan Pressley, among all RPs since 2021 

That is a good thing in theory.  However, per Fangraphs, "it's not predictive" and "should not be used for player evaluation".  

Quote

WPA is not highly predictive. Generally, it is not used for player analysis and projecting the future. But it does give us a picture of which players helped their team the most during the course of a game. A fun way to think of WPA is as a storytelling statistic. It highlights the big (and most exciting) moments of a game as well as the players who contributed most to a win (or loss).

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/wpa/

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, we'll have to entirely disagree with that valuation of Kevin Alcantara here.  I think Alcantara is a pretty wonderful prospect.  There's some risk here, but he's been figuring things out the last month.  I can't tell you how to view prospects, it's subjective, but he's someone who's posted a whopping 218 wRC+ over his last 80 PAs, a shrinking K% (under 24%) a far increased walk rate (14.9%) a much more refined approach, and 14 xBH in that span.  Development isn't linear and Alcantara, right up to an unfortunate calf strain was suggesting that he had figured out A+.  It's not enough for me to say definitively, but this is also a similar path many Cub prospects have followed over the last few seasons.  A month or two of struggles followed by a significant break out.  We'll see where go from here, but I think we should be very careful on using season long data here.

Out of curiosity, who are the ‘many’ cub prospects over the last ‘few’ seasons who struggled and then had a significant breakout? Have any of them translated that into major league success?

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Out of curiosity, who are the ‘many’ cub prospects over the last ‘few’ seasons who struggled and then had a significant breakout? Have any of them translated that into major league success?

How many are showing MLB success?  Well, that's a bit unfair because many of these prospects are currently in the MiLB still.  But if we want some examples of prospects who struggled initially at levels and then broke out:

Owen Caissie: struggled initially at A, A+ and AA only to breakout mid season

PCA: Struggled initially at A+ only to break out

Haydn McGeary: Struggled initially at AA only to have broken out

Moises Ballestros: Struggled initially at A+, has been signfiicantly better

Kevin Alcantara: Struggled initially at A ball to break out.  Seemingly has done similar in A+

Alexander Canario: Struggled at AA, only to break out

I think there's a pretty strong data set that the Cubs have with hitters in the MiLB, IMO.  There's a pattern we can see as we look at prospect in the Cub systems; prospects generally struggle from April through May, and then June/Mid-June we see breakouts.  Will this translate to MLB success?  Well, I can't say.  We have seen Christopher Morel and Miguel Amaya breakout in ways at the MLB level.  We might see Matt Mervis do the same, if given a chance.  I don't think "MLB Success" is a far barometer for players in A-AA right now.  We'll see what they do.

This ranks real high on the most unenjoyable nsbb threads

5 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

His 4.4 fWAR since 2021 is 6th among all relievers and tied with AJ Minter of the Braves

That's really good.  It's still 4.4 fWAR.  It's a marginal gain over, say, Paul Seawawls' 2.9 fWAR, who's likely available, or Andrew Chafin's 3.0 fWAR.  Why we should be careful trying to build on the margins.  I don't disagree, I think David Bednar is really good.  I think the Cubs are pretty good at deciding who's a good RP and who isn't, and paying a prospect premium for a RP seems like bad business.  

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

This is less fun when you consider that the best Cubs prospects to debut over the last few seasons are solid baseball players but not super duper stars like Torres, Paredes, Jimenez, Cease, Hoerner, and mostly not on Cubs anyway.

I do agree that development is uglier than we want it to be and all that jazz, but also Alcantara's got a 40 spot on a team trying to make the playoffs+ while struggling to master the low minors up to this point

A 40-Man roster is 40 players deep.  The Cubs shouldn't have an issue finding 39 players and keeping Alcantara.  The upside is real here; he's a possible 60/Hit,. 60/power player who can cover any OF position (though I think if we're being realistic, won't be in CF based on his size).  The Cubs kind of haven't been the best dev team in baseball, but realistically, the current dev team (Breslow, Kantrovtitz) hasn't had much time; it's like 2021-now.  We're already seeing fruits with Steele, Alzolay, Morel, Amaya.  I think that suggests the team is capable.  We're a little too young to know if they dev system works for many of their young hitters.  

I think it's fine to be questionable whether the Cubs can realistically turn into a dev powerhouse.  With that said, there's a pretty consistent turnover on Cub development each year where high end prospects are more than naught, moving to higher levels and finding success.  I'm actually pretty excited about where the talent goes.  I don't think that should make it entirely off limits, but I think right now, the Cubs should be selective on where those prospects go.  I just don't think we're at "trade for a closer" stage.  

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

Sewald and Chafin both throw 5 MPH less than Bednar while being half a decade older. They drew fewer whiffs, chases....like what are we even doing! I guess this is where the ol' agree to disagree comes into play

Yeah, I don't think either as good as Bednar.  I just think the general difference is...minimal.  Especially for where the Cubs are at, a guy who's marginally better probably doesn't matter unless you think they're truly a WS team and we need to find success at every margin.  There would be a time I would say "Yes, get the better player", I just don't think today we're there.  

Totally fine with agreeing to disagree.  I live in the real world, sometimes I have good ideas, and frankly, sometimes I'm wrong.  

35 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

That isn't "proof" so much as you just kind of made up a quote from no one, then pretended you "proved" something.  You stated that WAR undervalues relievers.  I'd need to seem some data to prove that.  

No, you don't. If you know enough about baseball to know what WAR is, then you know what leverage is. At *best* you're pretending to not understand the concept because it doesn't benefit your argument at this moment.  I hope that's what it is anyway...

18 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

This ranks real high on the most unenjoyable nsbb threads

Whoever forced you to click on it and read it all should be ashamed of themselves.