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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    Alfonso Soriano, $/WARP: $831 million. Starlin Castro, $118 thousand. At those rates, using BP's definition of replacement level as a 25-win team, it would cost $47 billion to produce a .500 team of Alfonso Sorianos, and you could build more than 15 100-win teams out of Castros on the Cubs' payroll.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    I love the offseason more than I love the regular season. This stuff is great.
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    I think it's pretty awesome too, but I'll bet none of these "kids" were considered cool when they were in school. They get to make a lot of money running baseball teams. They get to decide what's cool now.
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    Injuries, a perceived decline in performance and if I remember correctly, some sort of "clutchiness" issue in the playoffs. Plus, they equate him to the dismal post-NLCS run they have been on. Wright and Reyes are the faces of this franchise and every year there is talk about trading one or both and moving on or trying to hold it together. I also think there are personality issues, maybe he's said some things they think make him look weak. Not sure exactly. Perceived? Yes. That ballpark is AIDS to RH batters. If he's healthy he's hitting. The ballpark didn't make him go from a consistent 22% swinging at pitches outside the zone to to 28% the last two years. It didn't make his contact on swing percentage be the three lowest seasons of his career the last three years. It didn't make his line drive percentage plummet 7 percentage points after 2009. It hasn't all been ballpark. There's real degradation of skills here.
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    All the cool kids are coming to the Cubs. This is so awesome.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    Pena is a really borderline case. You can't offer him arbitration unless you really are willing to take him back at 1 year/$10 million or so again. The good thing is that as a type B, he won't have his FA value dragged down by the compensation, so that makes it a little easier for him to get a deal from another team.
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'm not interested in that sort of Jim Hendry move. I'm tired of these short-term band-aid solutions that sacrifice the future of the team. We aren't going to compete in 2012.
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    Time to keep this updated! https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tt7HjIernphaSrv4wMWdUYg&output=html Owed money but not under contract for 2012: Carlos Silva, $2 million Under contract for 2012: Carlos Zambrano, $19 million Alfonso Soriano, $19 million Ryan Dempster, $14 million Marlon Byrd, $6.5 million Carlos Marmol, $7.0 million Sean Marshall, $3.1 million Arbitration eligible: Matt Garza Geovany Soto Jeff Baker Randy Wells Blake DeWitt Koyie Hill Under team control but pre-arb (with the one exception, these guys will likely make less than $500k each): Jeff Samardizija (can't get less than 80% of last year's $3.3 million salary) Starlin Castro Darwin Barney Tyler Colvin Andrew Cashner James Russell Anyone else in the minors Total formally committed: $70.6 million for 6 players Total including arbitration estimates and pre-arbs who will probably make the team: $95 million-ish for 18-20 players.
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    so, does this mean that shark basically has to sign whatever contract offer the cubs give him, or sit out the year? is there a minimum value the contract has to have? They can only cut his salary by 20% of his previous years salary from what I understand. Is that the case even though he's not arb-eligible? According to this, yes: http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com/2009/03/pre-arbitration-players.html
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    D'oh, I'd been listing him as arb-eligible if they declined, but I thought he had way more major league service time than he did. Just barely over 2 years. They have to give him 80% of what he made last year, which was $3.3 million. So instead of a $3 million option, they can sign him for $2.64 million.
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    Not to mention the ever-present draft pick compensation they could get at the end of his deal.
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    He makes $15 million next season. Buying low isn't an option.
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    In this case, he's a guy who has had some awesome offensive seasons in the past but nowhere near that level the last two years.
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    Ramirez wasn't an average defender by the end of his time with the Cubs either, and that's part of the reason I'm not sad to see him go.
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    Expensive, injury prone, poor defensively and an up-and-down hitter. Pass.
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    I don't think people remember the Jim Hendry all that accurately. I keep reading about how he signed elite free agents every offseason.
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    He's already signed to a contract for those three years, totally $58 million.
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    There has not. But I was trying to remember: does the no more than 10% paycut rule apply to his sort of arbitration? Because if it does, the choice is between paying him $3 million and non-tendering him.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    Baseball teams need to open their books so we stop having to speculate about this ish.
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    The guy that painted the ivy red in 2003 made $13 million.
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'm sure they bring in extra security and some extra Roasts, but that's all I can think of. The operating costs for a game like that have got to be in the low-six figures at best.
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    Why would a playoff game cost significantly more? Because it would be. Extreme example: do you think it costs significantly more to host the Super Bowl than a regular season NFL game? Yes. But a conference championship game probably carries with it similar operating costs to a regular-season game, and I missed the World Series halftime show featuring a popular musical act.
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    Why would a playoff game cost significantly more?
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    You estimated that the Cardinals' net profit from the playoffs was $14 million. We're operating under the estimate of $24 million for gate revenues, and I posted why $12 million is a good estimate for non-gate revenues. That takes us from $36 to $14. In order to believe that non-gate revenues are cancelled out by operating expenses, you'd have to believe that it a major-league game carries with it a seven-figure operating cost. There's just no way you can justify that.
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    Just so we have some kind of vague starting point, here's an article referencing the 2004 Yankees that put non-gate revenues at about 60% of gate revenues: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1737334 We'll push that down to 50% because St. Louis isn't New York. So let's just say the Cardinals made $12 million in non-gate revenues for the sake of argument (it was probably much higher than that, because that 50% total is based on gross gate revenue, not just the owners' take). In order to get that $36 million in total revenue down to $14 million in profits, you'd have to believe that the operating costs of 7 playoff games was about $22 million. We'll round that down to $3 million per game. Even if a playoff game cost twice as much as a regular season game to operate, you'd have the 81-game major league home schedule costing the team $120 million in operating expenses, more than the entire team payroll. That's absurd and at least one entire order or magnitude off.
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