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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    How do you see Carlos Zambrano throwing one pitch for this organization? What an idiotic phrasing.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    "Defense is a clear area of improvement." I like it!
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    Resolution on Quade in a week, but kinda sounded like he is gone.
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    Press conference starting...
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    I was really hoping someone would take the time to do that. It's not difficult, but it is time consuming, to find the comps for each player. Getting all of our arbitration eligibles for under $18.4 million would be a few million better than I've been projecting. I'd be very happy with that.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    You'd have to hit one about 515 feet to dead center (which means not much pull). I won't say "never" but ... yes, I will say it. It will never happen.
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    It's crazy what an outlier 2007 was in FRAA. How does that even happen? If we start from 2007 just to give him the best possible cutoff, he's been bleeding an average of 8.5 runs a year from his value (just under a win) on the field and in the basepaths. If we start from 2006, it's 11 runs per year, and if we start from 2008 it's 12. No matter how you slice it, his defense and baserunning slice a full WAR per year off his offense.
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    Incidentally, Baseball Prospectus also takes a very dim view of his defense and has him averaging 2.0 bpWAR the last four seasons. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=734
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    How do you plan on implementing this idea? Start him at the beginning of the year then make him a long man after he hits a certain number of innings? Or have him be the long man early and then slide him into the rotation if he stays healthy and somebody else goes down? I don't think it's realistic to have him starting in April. The latter sounds better.
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    Keep Zambrano. Sign Fielder to a 5/125 deal (maybe optimistic on my part). Make Jackson your everyday CFer and go with a Baker/somebody (Flaherty? LeMahieu? Cheap FA?) platoon at 3b. Non-tender Hill and bring up Castillo. Let LaHair have his MLB roster spot, make him the primary PHing option. Tell Carlos Zambrano he gets a fresh start under a new manager, and remind him it's a contract year. Let Samardzija stretch out with an eye toward starting, but don't be surprised if you have to make him a reliever. Try to get half a season of starting out of Cashner, with him being a long man the rest of the time. Bring Wood back on a similar deal if he's ready to go. Soriano/Jackson/Byrd (Colvin, X?) (Baker/Platoon partner)/Castro/Barney/Fielder (Platoon partner, DeWitt, LaHair) Soto (Castillo) Garza/Dempster/Zambrano/(Wells/Samardzija/Cashner)/X Marmol/Marshall/Samardzija/Wood/Russell/Open competition That should leave you with about $15 million to fill in that last rotation spot via free agency. (Well, not last in the sense that it's the fifth starter, just last in that I left that one blank the longest because I'm not all that comfortable picking out a specific FA pitcher. I trust you, Theo!) That profiles to me as a .500+ team with a chance for the breaks to take them further.
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    I've actually heard fans argue that the fact that he's had some slow starts proves he doesn't care enough to hit when the Cubs need him (because lately they've been out of it by the time he gets his second-half surge). Clutch arguments are bad enough, but now a player is less clutch if he hits better later in the year, apparently.
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    Jeff Baker already plays for the Cubs and racks up over 200 PA a year. In any sort of platoon at third that is all he would play anyway. So you aren't adding anything if he's replacing Ramirez. You are simply using Baker at a different position, then you have to go out and replace Jeff Baker since Jeff Baker won't be doing what Jeff Baker does anymore, he'll be RH Ramirez. He would be getting about 1/3rd of the starts at 3b and still be available on the bench the rest of the days. I'd expect him to get maybe 50 more PAs in this scenario than he did in 2011. Jeff Baker was used so inefficiently last year that I don't think it'd be hard to replace his value to the team. He's about as pure of a lefty-masher as they come, and he somehow managed to get 40% of his PAs coming against right-handed pitching. Replacing 2011 Jeff Baker won't be hard because 2011 Jeff Baker was a -0.1 fWAR player. So your choice for 2012 is: 3.0 fWAR at 3b Jeff Baker on the bench or 1.5ish fWAR at 3b The other half of the platoon on the bench each day $13 million available to upgrade other parts of the roster The choice is pretty clear, imo.
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    Probably not. I really think people are grossly overrating what those guys can do. Agreed. LeMahieu and Flaherty aren't exactly top prospects, and people are probably putting a little too much stock in WAR's defensive values when trying to equate their production with Aramis. I'm not strictly equating. The platoon will be a step back. But not enough of a step back to keep the cost difference from being justified. Ramirez has averaged 3.0 fWAR and 2.3 bWAR the last four seasons. I think a 3.0 fWAR and a 2.5 bWAR is a very reasonable, possibly even generous projection for his age 34 season. Jeff Baker is basically a Ramirez clone vs. lefties and will make something like $1.5 million this year. Bringing in an internal option could make the combined price of the platoon to be less than $2 million. I think it's very reasonable to project the platoon at something like 1.5 fWAR and 1.0 bWAR, with some upside for better. So $15 million for Ramirez would mean paying $13 million for 1.5 fWAR. That's just not good value compared to the other places we can spend the money. Then throw in the value of the pick we get if we let him sign elsewhere.
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    Obviously that is not true because we have actually seen what he can do. Sure he could fail to do what he can do, but he can clearly do it. Okay. I think people are overrating what is reasonable to project from Ramirez in 2012 and beyond.
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/7172437/agent-says-chicago-cubs-picked-option-aramis-ramirez-opt-out Already posted?
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    Regress his offense back to the mean a little bit, too. I think the most likely 2012 projection for his offense is closer to 2011 than 2010, but still a tick back from his 2011. Something like his ZIPS projection of .280 .340 .474. Add in how fast his defense has declined in recent years, and I think you're looking at $15 million for a 3 WAR player. That's not terrible value, but I'd rather get 1-2 WAR out a platoon for almost nothing and have $15 million to spend elsewhere.
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    I've heard that too. I have no idea if it's true or of it's just athlete mental rationalization.
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    Probably not. I really think people are grossly overrating what those guys can do. I think people are overrating what Ramirez can do.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    We have the ability to replicate a ton of Ramirez's value with cheap, in-house options. I wouldn't be furious if we offered him a two or three year deal at market value, but I'd be a little confused. We can cobble together a 3b platoon that should be pretty credible for almost nothing. We can't say the same about 1b or several rotation spots, so that's where the money should be spent.
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    The Cubs still exist, too. So 2/3rds right.
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    So basically, it's CarolinaCubsFan's fault if the Cardinals can afford to up their offer to Pujols. Thanks a lot.
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'd still like to do a platoon with internal options and use the extra money on 1b and pitching.
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    If the first two Cardinals had gotten out in the 9th inning of Game 6, the last out of their season would have been likely made by a pitcher in the leadoff spot, because he ran out of pinch hitters.
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    Unfortunately, half the league needs more pitching and the options just got a little thinner.
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    I still think there's a very decent chance Quade stays. He's cheap, and presumably he knows he won't be getting another managing shot, so he'll listen to whatever Epstein tells him to do. Fits in with Theo's Theme of using the resources the Cubs already have in place.
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