Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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No we don't. So it's not a problem that we gave superstar money to Soriano and Zambrano, and gave $12 million a year to solid players like Fududome? We're just going to blame this mess all on John Stocksill and Jim Hendry signing guys on the margin like John Grabow? I'd do two of those three contracts over again.
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Re: Darvish
Hairyducked Idiot replied to SouthSideRyan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I don't believe any of these reports that have teams saying "Aww, shucks, we don't really have that much money and don't plan on putting in a competitive bid." That's standard operating procedure for these things, and then those same teams will drop huge bids. Boston was playing the "aww, shucks" routine right up to the day they bid $51 million for Matsuzaka. -
We failed to acquire enough good baseball players. We aren't in any sort of contract hell. We've got tons of money to spend if we want to spend it.
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You'd [expletive] a plugged in toaster with a tin foil condom. Only the two-slot. The four-slotters are disgusting.
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I would.
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That's worth considering, but I'd note that his failure rates are roughly similar for 1st to third and 2nd to home.
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I'm going to cheat a little and compare 2011 NL baserunning averages to Fielder's career totals. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01-bat.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2011-baserunning-batting.shtml Runner is on 1st, single hit Fielder (249 total) 221 second 23 third 5 out 2011 NL average (per 249) 173 second 73 third 3 out Fielder net total: -50 thirds, + 2 outs Runner is on 1st, double hit Fielder (77 total) 54 third 21 home 2 out 2011 NL average (per 77) 42 third 33 home 2 out Fielder net total: -12 homes Runner is on 2nd, single hit Fielder (109 total) 61 third 42 home 6 out 2011 NL average (per 109) 40 third 65 home 4 out Fielder net total: -23 homes, +2 outs Fielder combined net: -50 thirds, -35 homes, +4 outs Fielder average per 162: -8 thirds, -6 homes, +1 out Using some very rough estimates of the cost of a failure to advance each base based on Run Expectancy charts, I get 8(0.18) + 6(0.5) + 1(0.6) = 5 runs per year. Throw in other baserunning situations for another run per year. Yeah, seems very plausible to me.
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*tries to figure out why hitting a single produces real runs, but allowing a single with your bad defense is theoretical, but only if you play a less important defensive position*
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Depends on the tiebreaker: Cost.
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The most important late-inning situations are tie games. How do you decide to pull him from the game then?
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Re: Darvish
Hairyducked Idiot replied to SouthSideRyan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
This may have been answered already, but how quickly after the deadline will we find out who won the bidding? Anywhere from minutes to a week. Depends on how fast it leaks, how fast MLB makes an official announcement, and how much time Nippon takes to accept or decline the bid. They have until next Tuesday to decide. -
Runs are runs. The fact that the rest of the Cubs' offense sucks doesn't mean Fielder's offense counts double.
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You are reading this completely incorrectly. He was on second and a single was hit 14 times. That's it. Eight times he stopped at third, four times he scored, twice he was thrown out. It's all right here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2008.shtml
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no. It should have been 14, but otherwise, yes.
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Is that saying he was only on 2nd 12 times when a single was hit. That seems insanely low to me. BRef has it at 24. And it has him 3-64 going 1st to 3rd. That's 2010.
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Is that saying he was only on 2nd 12 times when a single was hit. That seems insanely low to me. Oops, that was a typo. It should be "4 for 14." http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01-bat.shtml
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Sadly, no. For his career, he has 16 stolen bases and 10 caught stealings, only 1 of which was a pickoff.
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Prince Fielder, 2008 baserunning 9 out on the basepaths 2 caught stealings 1st to third on a single: 4 for 38 1st to home on a double: 5 for 13 2nd to home on a single: 4 for 12 That's some pretty darn bad baserunning. I don't know if it's worth -9 runs or whatever, but it's awful.
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That they don't really "cost too much" is the key. The old "$5 million/WAR" or whatever is meant to be ceteris parabis. It's that player's value to a completely generic team. Every player is going to be worth more to some teams than to others. A 5-WAR first baseman isn't worth $25 million to a team that already has a 4-WAR first baseman. A team that sees itself right in that 85-95 win sweetspot where every win can be huge will probably be willing to pay a lot more than $5 million for a marginal win if need be. So in the case of Fielder, we might have to pay him more than $5 million per win or whatever, but the dearth of options and the organization's gaping wound at 1b means that isn't really overpaying.
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Re: Darvish
Hairyducked Idiot replied to SouthSideRyan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Yesssssssssss. This sort of report is usually a smokescreen to the team dropping a humongous load of cash on someone. Just like the Angels were leaking to reporters that they only had "$10-$15 million" to spend right before they signed Pujols and Wilson. -
I'm going to post what a good move this was 100 different ways in this thread, just so I can balance out the next time Epster does something I don't like.
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Re: Darvish
Hairyducked Idiot replied to SouthSideRyan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
This times 10000. -
How does DeJesus at a 2-year-deal fit into that dichotomy?
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How many was he worth the last three? 6.2 Okay, you are right, I still wouldn't have wanted him at this contract. But it's annoying that Milwaukee just upgraded and apparently has more money than we thought.
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So even if we are still going with $5 million/WAR (I think it might be getting higher than that), he just needs to be worth 7.5 WAR over the next three years to be worth that money? And he upgrades a major divisional rival at a position of serious need. Ewww.