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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    It's not meant to be used that literally in the sense of "it's the exact equivalent of a 1.8 WAR player" or anything like that. I'm just trying to really hammer home how top-heavy the MLB draft is. It seems like people really want an NFL-style narrative to the draft, with lots of intrigue and value past the first round, but it just isn't there. And we all want the new CBA to be exploitable (including myself, with the "punt the 2nd rounder and try to buy Appel out of Houston" idea), but it seems pretty airtight to me. Houston's machinations still look like to me that they came out worse than if they'd just played it straight last year.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    I wouldn't say "don't trade him then." I expect more for him, but if the best thing we get offered is the No. 34 pick, then I'll just assume my expectations were too high.
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    I don't think so. Didn't the new CBA made the deadline much sooner. I think this year it's July 15.
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    On DeJesus? I want something similar to what we got for Maholm, another 2-win player with a team-friendly option.
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    I don't get the fascination with non-elite draft picks. The changes in the draft have made it harder for talents to slip down and be taken, not easier, so the pick should in theory be worth even less. I think we can do a lot better for DeJesus. I'd consider the pick to maybe be on the low end of acceptable for him, but even that's mostly because the novelty factor of trading for a pick makes it a bit more appealing.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    The No. 34 pick has a total of 87.2 bWAR over 48 picks. Take out the guys who haven't been around long enough to reach the majors, and you're still averaging under 2 WAR per pick. The last to produce 10 bWAR in the major leagues was Arthur Rhodes, drafted in 1987. I don't mind picking up the pick just because it's fun, but if we're trading anything serious, it's a throw-in and not the prize.
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    It looks like, in sum, he's going to be a below-average starter but not a black hole. That's not a bad thing, but we sure do seem to be piling those up.
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    I wasn't talking about whether it you trade your core or not. It just doesn't really mean anything. It's just some imaginary line where a certain amount of projection and years of control puts you into a different group.
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    Tennessee has really mastered the art of "score a bunch of runs to get you excited about clicking on the box score, only to found out it's all from the roster fill in the bottom half of the lineup."
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    I really hate the idea of "core." You have a bunch of players under control and they help you win baseball games. It's nice to have really, really good ones under control for a long time, but partitioning off a few as "core" doesn't really add to your understanding of the state of your organization.
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    Similarly, K% is way better than K/9.
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    Vitters has 2 GIDPs already. He's ready for the big club.
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    Yeah, he's totally not overpaid, and we had little choice even if he was. Our pitching is absurdly thin. We added a bunch and still don't have enough, and we'll need to add a bunch more next offseason.
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    Not that it matters, but Cot's either has that wrong or they are just using the luxury tax number rather than the actual dollar amount. He got an $8 million signing bonus and then gets $11 million a year from here on out.
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    It's close. A lot depends on how he fits into your overall plan. If you can bump payroll to $115-120m next year and believe that you can add another bat on top of Headley, replace Garza and fix the bullpen, then you can probably justify it. If you can't afford to do all that, then I think you'd be better served waiting to see what the (admittedly thin) free agent market can bring and commit your money there rather than trade prospects for the privilege of giving Headley an FA-cost extension. If 3b was our only hole, then it'd be more pressing. But we can make plenty of strides next season in the OF, the bullpen, 2b, catcher, replacing Garza in the rotation.
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    That's assuming that Towers was using some sort of understandable valuation system.
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    There was something done like a year ago that plotted pitches on a graph both vertical and flat on the ground and judged catchers by what percentage of similar balls resulted in WP or PB. I can't find it now, though.
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    Today's attendance (26,354) was the lowest for a Cubs-Cardinals game since 1998. I'm starting to wonder if between the lost attendance (and lost concessions, because the announced attendance has been far beyond the actual attendance loss), we might not be looking at a lowered payroll next year. Especially when we'll also be fronting the money to start the renovations, even though that should balance out once the ad revenue starts coming in. Hopefully the national TV money will offset all that, at least.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    The point is more about intentionally sending a RH reliever to face Carpenter/Beltran in a 1 run game than having Russell avoid RH hitters. The one run thing being of notable importance, as "wasting" Russell in a no on/2 out situation against a same handed hitter still led to the tying run. 1-run game or not, there were 2 outs and nobody on. The leverage index there was 0.80. You had to figure that the 8th inning would end up being more important. I'm not going to get out the pitchforks because trying to balance one decent reliever around six Turd Fergusons is a losing game no matter how you play it, but I think he goofed that one.
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    The fact that he had questions about his ability to stick as a starter before and is now coming off of TJS is a big part of what makes me want to just go ahead and move him from the pen. If he had been perfectly healthy, I'd say give him one more chance to stick in the rotation.
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    Muskat reports Ian Stewart's option assignment to Iowa is now an outright assignment, meaning he's cleared waivers and is off the 40-man.
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    I don't think so. I've always been of the opinion that one or two high-quality relief pitchers are just as important as your rotation guys.
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    That's both accurate and depressing. Dolis has never had a year with less than 4 BB/9 and his K-rate is above average but not exceptional in the minors. I kind of hope they just give up on letting Vizcaino start and he can immediately become a relief ace.
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    How Bowden is on the team still baffles me. At least bring up someone from Iowa because there has to be other options in the farm system. There isn't. That's the problem. The AAA and AA pitching is a black hole of even worse suckiness.
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    Trade everything for bullpen prospects.
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