Survivor bias. Now go back and look at the list of pitchers that dropped out and simply aren't pitching anymore at that age. '98-Present fWAR leaders through age 30: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=1998&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=17,30&filter=&players=0 Yes, he's been a very good pitcher through age 30. We're attempting to figure out how good he'll be through age 37. --- eta Holy crap, that list makes me think f pitchers over 30 Sabathia - arm dying if not dead Felix - hasn't passed 30 Verlander - arm dying Pedro - arm died @ 34 - 35 Greinke - ok so far, but still young Santana - arm died at 31 Vazquez - arm died at 34 Oswalt - arm died at 34 Halladay - arm died at 34 Buerhle - ok Kershaw - uh, yeah, still only 26! Haren - arm died at 31 Yeah, that list is not a compelling argument to sign Lester. Yeah. I want to not get nothing, but I really wouldn't mind if we just traded for a 28-year-old pitcher instead.