Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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OK, so we're shipping Hammel off in a salary dump? We're just going to have go out and get another swingman, and the cost for them on the free agent market is going to eat up most of the savings.
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I'm sure he'd be effective. But if adding two SP and having an $11M swingman prevents you from signing Heyward, is it worth it? Over the course of, I don't know, 25 starts, I'd say the downgrade from Hammel to Clayton Richard is probably similar to the downgrade from Heyward to whomever we get instead of Heyward.
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The odds are better than 50/50 that all are healthy at the end of spring. The odds of all five getting through the season are very small. If you're sending $11M to the pen when you're still constrained on payroll, isn't that a pretty awful use of resources? That $11m is a sunk cost, it doesn't bear on the decision.
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I think there's some value you describe there, but it's incredibly expensive to chase. Going from 88 to 91 costs a lot less than going from 91 to 94, usually.
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I don't think it's as simple as "Hammel leaves the rotation." Given the nature of starting pitching, I think it's prudent to always enter spring training with at least six guys you are utterly comfortable with in the rotation. If you get through all of spring training with all six completely healthy and ready to go, then sure, Hammel is probably going to the pen for awhile. I don't think you can ever count on him for 31 starts without him becoming pretty turdly for a long stretch. But what are the odds that your starting five are all healthy at the same time at the end of spring? Is it even 50/50?
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I'm not saying we can plant a "Mission Accomplished: 2016" flag right now. But a Samardzija-level SP, a second SP who can challenge for the fifth spot and be valid depth, and an outfielder, and you've got a 90+ win team on paper. Burning resources for 2017 and beyond just to get from 91 on paper to 94 on paper doesn't seem like a good use of resources to me.
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You're really underestimating the Nats and Giants.
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Going from Soler to Coghlan doesn't create a major hole. Heck, going from Soler to replacement level isn't that big of a drop.
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Those are fantastic reasons to not pour everything into this year and next. This thinking is so weird to me. We all know that the playoffs are a crapshoot and getting there as often as possible is the best way to succeed, and yet we held back resources from teams that needed them and now we're supposed to be pouring resources into rosters that don't?
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Eliminate the draft altogether. When you turn 18, you can sign with any team you want for any contract length you want. Total revenue sharing to make it fair. I know it will never, ever come close to happening, but it would be amazing.
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Pardon? you [expletive] dumbass, it's easy to understand what this means unless you're intentionally trying to take it the wrong way which of course you are so long story short [expletive] off Well that was a bit much. Holidays getting to you? fuuuuuuuuuuuuuu uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu uuuuuuuuuu ccccccccccc kkkkkkkkkkkk offffffffffffffff Don't beat yourself up. It is a tough time for everyone.
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Pardon? you [expletive] dumbass, it's easy to understand what this means unless you're intentionally trying to take it the wrong way which of course you are so long story short [expletive] off Well that was a bit much. Holidays getting to you?
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Pardon?
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The idea that Samardzija thinks reuniting with Bosio is the key to regaining his success seems incredibly logical.
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Unusual CF idea(s)
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Northsider's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
It's definitely some good outside the box thinking, but I think I just have to pass. I don't like our non-Russell infielders enough to think this is anything but filling one hole by creating another. -
I could live with Shark and Lackey. Ironically, now that we're actually good, I can see the case for restraint and not needing to go after the tippest-toppest talent.
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Our financial budget may be limited, but when combined with our trade chips, we have more than enough to fill out the starting lineup with quality.
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Totally remember Frandy De La Rosa being a decent-sized IFA signing. Suck it, Kaplan.
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He's from downstate Illinois, so it's 50/50 that he and his family are either quite excited or quite annoyed by him joining the Cubs.
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40-man Roster/Rule 5 Discussion
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Brickhouse's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I was rooting for him to be left off just to see the consternation on some fans' faces, but he's probably worth the spot. Barely. -
Aren't we like an hour away from the roster deadline?
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I'm not a fan of Blackmon. He's only a 2.0-2.5 win player (by both standards) and doesn't play great defense in center, and his overall offensive numbers aren't that impressive even with the Coors effect. If anything Hendricks alone is an overpay for his services when you take age and team control into consideration, IMO. The problem is that every CF we mention has some issues that make it not a perfect fit. From too expensive (Heyward, Fowler, Gardner) to injury affected (Eaton, Span) to mediocre (Blackmon, Maybin). I've accepted the idea that we have enough firepower offensively that we can deal with a mediocre (offensively) CF for a year or two until Almora/McKinney/Happ are ready. I really don't understand the point of going through all the trouble of getting good players just to say "Well, now we can get away with using crappy ones at other positions."
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Gardner
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Cubs Fan Dan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
It's not objectively bad value. The money is about the same. Gardner is older, less healthy and plays a less important position, but he's also been a better player by WAR the last three years by a win or so a year. But it's not something I'm interested in. It makes Brett Gardner one of our starting outfielders and Javier Baez our starting 2b, and neither of those things I particularly want. -
That feels like it might point to a flaw in how they are measuring replacement level. Or really poor personnel decisions by uninformed boobs. Plus a lot of cup of coffee drinkers. The cup of coffee guys on average should be replacement level. Yes, it's possible that bad decision making is the explanation. I think it's more likely something like "We don't have a good way to do defensive data before 1980 so everyone who played a high-demand defensive position who was below-average offensively comes out looking horrible."
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That feels like it might point to a flaw in how they are measuring replacement level.