Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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19 times out 62 losses by my count just now (not counting the 2 losses where we didn't have four more games left to play).
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Here's how I look at it: The Cubs lost the first game of the season this year. It sucked. Then they won 3 of the next 4. Then they hit the road and won 3 of 4. Then they won 3 of the next 4. They've won 3 out of 4 games lots of times this year. Course the Dodgers have won 2 of 4 lots of times too, I bet. But the point is, no one wants to hear objective analysis right now. They want to bitch and whine with other people who feel as bad as they do, and maybe receive a little hope if it's available from anyone. Going around showing off how uninvested you are in the team may make you feel all superior, but it's probably not helpful to very many people, just in case you were thinking it was. Can people go four posts in this thread without telling me what my emotions are? I know how I feel, and so far it's not what you people keep trying to ascribe to me. This is the Cubs message board. We talk about the Cubs. Statistical analysis has a lot to do with our talk about the Cubs. Until I see a sign that says "no statistical analysis when it looks bad for the Cubs," I'm going to continue to post statistical analysis about the Cubs, good or bad.
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Odds of trash ending up on the field if things get bad tomorrow? I mean, lots of trash?
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I feel good about Zambrano. I think he wants to prove he should've started tonight. We should start our best available starter. That's not Zambrano.
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We can wait for THT or BP to do a more detailed analysis, but as I said earlier, math is hard an I can't do that by hand. You are right that we do have a slightly better chance than the average team down 0-1 because we are a superior team to the Dodgers. And while we face a bad matchup tomorrow, we do have three straight pitching matchups that favor us. But the fact of the matter is, the Cubs are not a .750 team in the long run vs. the Dodgers, so there is no reason to expect it now. If we get it, great, but the odds are long. I agree with the fact that over a large sample size, we are not a .750 team against anybody. My only point is that sample sized go out the window in these cases. Hey (sarcasm intended), no team had won three straight games against three different opponents in 3 days before yesterday. I know that this is not the same story, but stats that cite success in that small of a sample size are bound to fail in predictive terms. Yes, the odds are against the Cubs now. But the odds in this circumstance are not that useful in predictive terms. What sample are you talking about? We have the entire sample of baseball history to tell us how hard it is to win 3 games out of any four.
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I do. I feel like I make an emotional investment in this team that will only be justified when they finally win the World Series. That is the only thing that can validate a season for me. It'd better be *really* freaking sweet for all the things they've put you through when it finally happens.
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The crowd can't handle a deficit in the playoffs, they think the 99 years of previous failure are connected to today's performance. Clearly has a major effect on the players. I'm going to keep asking this question until I get an answer: How much epic underperformance under how long of a sample has to occur before we accept the fact that even some tiny portion of the things that remain consistent in the organization have an effect? 10 playoff games? 100 playoff games? 1000?
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Is it so hard to believe that maybe an intelligent person is just infuriated over horrible baseball and is simply overreacting. I'm not agreeing with a thing he said but what he posts late at night on a message board after watching his favorite team perform horribly in game one of the playoffs should not and can not determine a man's intelligence. Hey now, I'm actually quite calm. I'm not going to let a bad postseason format that gives way too strong a chance to inferior teams change my perception of this years' Cubs team. They were the best in the NL, they proved it, and the rest is just a sideshow. I'd like for them to win the sideshow, but I don't need it to validate the season for me.
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This is getting way out of hand. Cool it with the personal attacks, please. I've been in the game threads all year. I've been on this board for quite awhile. I've got quite a history of posting positive things about the Cubs when the situations warrant it. I stick to the math, and the math told me the Cubs were winning division titles in 07 and 08 when a lot of people didn't believe it. And like it or not, the math sucks for the team that loses the first game in a five-game series. End of story. Actually, what I said was "it's not worth hoping on." Given the depression that sets in for most of this board when they finally lose this season, vs. the elation of winning, multiplied by the odds of each happening, I stand by that subjective statement. It certainly wasn't stupid or worth throwing out personal attacks over. I agree that the odds have decreased, but don't try to say that there is absolutely no hope because, I'm sorry to say it, but it makes you sound foolish.
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We can wait for THT or BP to do a more detailed analysis, but as I said earlier, math is hard an I can't do that by hand. You are right that we do have a slightly better chance than the average team down 0-1 because we are a superior team to the Dodgers. And while we face a bad matchup tomorrow, we do have three straight pitching matchups that favor us. But the fact of the matter is, the Cubs are not a .750 team in the long run vs. the Dodgers, so there is no reason to expect it now. If we get it, great, but the odds are long.
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This is getting way out of hand. Cool it with the personal attacks, please. I've been in the game threads all year. I've been on this board for quite awhile. I've got quite a history of posting positive things about the Cubs when the situations warrant it. I stick to the math, and the math told me the Cubs were winning division titles in 07 and 08 when a lot of people didn't believe it. And like it or not, the math sucks for the team that loses the first game in a five-game series. End of story.
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According to the link from THT Live posted earlier in the day, the Cubs odds of winning the WS drop 67% if they lose game 1, so the odds of them winning the first series must drop by the same amount. The odds were 52% before the loss, so they now drop to about 17%. I'm too tired to figure it out, but I believe there is a problem with your assumption. There is, I just don't have the energy or motivation to get into it. I don't really care I'm sure someone will point it out. Any day now.... It's easy to take cheap personal shots and ad hominems. Math is hard.
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Odds of winning tomorrow: Maybe 50/50 if we take an optimistic view of homefield advantage. We are down 0-1 and facing a bad pitching matchup. Seriously dude, do you take some joy in coming to this board and being a complete killjoy? I'm here to talk about the Chicago Cubs in as objective a way as possible. I'm sorry if that offends your delicate sensibilities. Were you not here all summer when I said the Cubs were clearly the superior team to the Brewers and would win the division going away? Or in 2006 when I said run differential showed we had a better than 50/50 shot of catching and passing the Brewers? The fact of the matter is that the Cubs' odds of winning the WS, or even advancing out of the first round, took a dramatic nosedive tonight, and there's no reason not to say that.
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According to the link from THT Live posted earlier in the day, the Cubs odds of winning the WS drop 67% if they lose game 1, so the odds of them winning the first series must drop by the same amount. The odds were 52% before the loss, so they now drop to about 17%.
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I have a question: Where would this team have been this year without Dempster? Probably in the playoffs. They won the spot by like a bajillion games, no one player could have cost them it.
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Fairly good.
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That right now has the potential of being the dumbest thing that I have ever heard and I have listened to my fair share of Hawk Harrelson. Unfortunately, you can put your comment on the board as he would say. It's also perfectly accurate. prove it plz http://www.fangraphs.com/liveplays.aspx?gameid=281001116 Down 3 as the home team coming up in the bottom of the 7th, the Cubs odds of winning was about 13.2%. What percentage of teams come back from down 1-0?
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Odds of winning tomorrow: Maybe 50/50 if we take an optimistic view of homefield advantage. We are down 0-1 and facing a bad pitching matchup.
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That right now has the potential of being the dumbest thing that I have ever heard and I have listened to my fair share of Hawk Harrelson. Unfortunately, you can put your comment on the board as he would say. It's also perfectly accurate.
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When Zambrano is on, he is lights out. Tomorrow he is going to be on. Thanks for the guarantee. Guess I can cash out the 401k and run to Vegas with a guarantee like that...
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The booing is getting way out of hand. There are times when booing is warranted, but it serves no purpose in Game 1 of a playoff series. When your starting pitcher walks seven. Fans have emotions. If they want to let them out, I have no problem with it.
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Fukudome didn't play bad tonight. He wasn't the reason the Cubs lost. I just hope that he doesnt end up making Todd Hundly look like a good signing in the long run. Right now I care about this series. I don't. The odds of us winning it are about the same as the odds of a 3-run come back in the late innings. Possible, but not worth hoping on.
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Our rotation is better than LA. Tomorrow it isn't. Billingsley isn't a product of Dodger stadium like Lowe.
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You guys shoulda listened to me. Stop expecting so much. The fact of the matter is, 7 teams out of 8 are going to lose in the playoffs each year. Good teams are going to lose to worse teams a lot. There's no need to become so emotionally invested in a bad playoff system.
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Zambrano and Harden. Zambrano has over an 18 era in his starts since no-hitter. Time to wonder whether letting him throw all those pitches in his first start back was worth it?