Hairyducked Idiot

"Good, go. But, don't come back when we do win it all. Which we will. As a stat guy you have to think it is pretty good that we are getting back at a much better rate to the playoffs than we ever have. We will break through at some point." But that's just my point. Would it even be that fun to win the WS anymore? Up to actually getting to the WS, every step would just be a reminder of the epic losses we've had at that point before. "For almost 40 years, the Cubs managed a whopping total of 3 playoff appearances. In the last 6 they've gone 3 times and just missed a 4th. Yeah, the results so far hae been painful, but putting together teams that can get into the postseason mcuh more often drastically increases the odds of actually pushing through to the Fall Classic. The odds of seeing playoff failures also must increase in that scenario. I'd much rather see the Cubs fail more often in the playoffs like this than hinge everything on a fluke push once every 10, 15 or 25 years." I'm not one of those Cubs fans who try to claim 100 years of suffering and what not. I've never seen a Cubs WS, but I'm only 28, and lots of teams haven't won it all in 28 years. My problem with the Cubs isn't that they've never won it all while I'm watching, it's that they've so utterly and completely embarassed themselves every time in the playoffs. Three sweeps, one epic collapse for the ages from a 99.x% chance to win the pennant. Nine straight playoff losses by multiple runs and an unholy negative run differential. Holding the lead at the end of 3 innings out of the entire last six playoff games. *That's* what makes it not fun anymore. I can handle a perfectly ordinary first-round loss, but these epic collapses just make it not fun. It's the difference between a great, 4-3 game with lots of exciting plays that your team loses, but you can still appreciate it as a great game, and a 11-1 embarassment with lots of gaffes.

It doesn't seem like I'm being that obtuse. Every pitching staff in the NL playoffs did significantly better vs. right-handed batters than left-handed batters. How is it not therefore a detriment to have a significant portion of your offense tied up in right-handed hitting? I'm not saying it's not a detriment, I'm saying that it's not a surprise that a league that has a majority of RHB has worse splits against RHP. there are more rhp and rhb than lhp and lhb ... so it's common sense that splits against RHB will be lower. I would imagine every pitching staff in baseball with a majority of RHP did better against RHB, how is that a surprise? The NL as a whole had a much smaller split: .260 .328 .414 .266 .341 .421 compared to the Dodgers' .239 .301 .361 .268 .334 .396 Hmm, that's less of a difference than I expected. The Dodgers' RHP are better than the average RHPs, though. It may just be a fluke of the last few years, but it seems like that happens a lot in the playoffs, which is sort of the point of my theory :) Or maybe it's this: when you have an imbalanced lineup, you open yourself up to wilder variations in matchups. You can get matchups like the Dodgers, who were bad for the Cubs all along, or you might get a lefty-heavy team you can crush.

Odds I'm still a Cubs fan at that point: 100% 100% for me. This applies to the rest of my natural life. Personally, I don't have time for even a hint of fairweather. To each their own. If you guys still enjoy it, do it. But there's a point where it's just not fun anymore, and these guys are getting close to it for me. I can handle a couple first-round losses. But, as always with the Cubs, the losing has to be stretched to the point of absurdity. They can't just lose three straight, it has to be by a combined score of 20-6. They have to almost have more errors than runs. It has to be 9 straight lost playoff games by a combined score of 57-18. It has to be another year of "If they don't win it all none of it matters" talk. It has to be another year of every single time the Cubs are broadcast on national TV seeing the Bartman play 10 times and hearing the phrase "101 years" 35 times.

How about anything but "be patient"? You really don't see the prolem with that quote? Really? well arent the playoffs a crapshoot anyway, so fans should wait until they get lucky one year? honestly, apparently regular season success doesn't mean anything in a 5 game series (which is 5 games thanks to the great minds in charge of the MLB) There's a difference between losing a crapshoot and choking. The 2003 Braves lost a crapshoot to an inferior team. It's a long way from that to losing 6 playoff games in a row in two years without even a one-run loss to make it seem close.

"We're sorry." That's all. No qualifiers needed.

I have no idea what they will do but I honestly don't know how we can be expected to believe in ANYTHING they do. How much can you improve a 97 win team. It's not as if we are talking about the 85 win team from a year ago when you knew they had to get better. Even if they signed C.C., or traded for a Brian Roberts, I'll always think they'll choke. It's what they do, it's what they have always done. We need another frontline starter. Zambrano and Harden will be lucky to have three good arms between them by next June.

Odds I'm still a Cubs fan at that point: 85%

This Cub fan to Soriano: something bannable

It doesn't seem like I'm being that obtuse. Every pitching staff in the NL playoffs did significantly better vs. right-handed batters than left-handed batters. How is it not therefore a detriment to have a significant portion of your offense tied up in right-handed hitting? I'm not saying it's not a detriment, I'm saying that it's not a surprise that a league that has a majority of RHB has worse splits against RHP. there are more rhp and rhb than lhp and lhb ... so it's common sense that splits against RHB will be lower. I would imagine every pitching staff in baseball with a majority of RHP did better against RHB, how is that a surprise? The NL as a whole had a much smaller split: .260 .328 .414 .266 .341 .421 compared to the Dodgers' .239 .301 .361 .268 .334 .396

Let's say we take the top 30 RHP in the league using RA+ from baseballprospectus.com. We compare the Cubs OPS against those pitchers compared to the league's combined OPS against those pitchers. Would that be kosher?

It doesn't seem like I'm being that obtuse. Every pitching staff in the NL playoffs did significantly better vs. right-handed batters than left-handed batters. How is it not therefore a detriment to have a significant portion of your offense tied up in right-handed hitting?

(btw, I am working on a more definitive test, but it doesn't just appear overnight :) )

All three playoff teams in the NL were significantly better pitching to RHB. Brewers had the smallest split: .255 .318 .396 .257 .331 .420 Last year's Diamondbacks were: .255 .318 .396 .271 .353 .450 Since most pitchers are right handed and most hitters are right handed, this isn't a surprise. i thought we were talking about how we did this year against "good rhp" Wait, that makes no sense. Why isn't it a surprise? RHP have more success against RHB than against LHB? that's not a shocker Those aren't righty-on-righty splits. Those are entire pitching staff on righty splits.

All three playoff teams in the NL were significantly better pitching to RHB. Brewers had the smallest split: .255 .318 .396 .257 .331 .420 Last year's Diamondbacks were: .255 .318 .396 .271 .353 .450 Since most pitchers are right handed and most hitters are right handed, this isn't a surprise. i thought we were talking about how we did this year against "good rhp" Wait, that makes no sense. Why isn't it a surprise?

I don't buy that at all. We'll have even less competition in the Central next season (IMO). And as is becoming clearer and clearer, this playoff business is a crapshoot. Zambrano and Harden's arms are about to fall off. I guess we can hope that Dempster's season was legit, but otherwise our pitching staff is in trouble.

False choice. You can construct a team that is balanced with good hitters from both sides of the plate *and* build a team that is great in the regular season. It does not have to be an either/or. The point is, this team still crushed RHP despite not having the balance you desire. I don't see how you quantify exactly what is "good" RHP and prove that we were able to destroy bad RHP but not scratch across 7 runs in 3 games against above average RHP. It wasn't a flawless team but it was the best team in the league. That's Hendry's job. So you don't think there's *any* chance that their playoff chances are hurt by having all the playoff teams pitch better against right-handed batters, and we have almost nothing but? None at all?

I'm only 20 and I realize we're never winning a World Series. I've never seen a winning season for the Reds. I feel your pain. Then you've been a fan for eight seasons or loss, so no you don't.

Worst hitter in lineup getting most at-bats. I'm in!

False choice. You can construct a team that is balanced with good hitters from both sides of the plate *and* build a team that is great in the regular season. It does not have to be an either/or.

All three playoff teams in the NL were significantly better pitching to RHB. Brewers had the smallest split: .255 .318 .396 .257 .331 .420 Last year's Diamondbacks were: .255 .318 .396 .271 .353 .450

It's not just about us, it's about the other teams as well. Dodgers pitchers vs. RHB .239 .301 .361 Dodgers pitchers vs. LHB .268 .334 .396 We played right into their strength. If we had played the Phillies, it would have been the same thing: .252 .317 .399 vs. .270 .346 .425

Good call. Lee was obviously the villain in this series. And there is minimal blame to be put on Hendry. He put together a near 100 win team that didn't show up for the playoffs. That's not on him. They played tight and coughed it up. He made decisions that made them heavily right-handed, making them vulnerable to a team with lots of good right-handed pitching. Bull Howry. They scored the most runs in the league vs. RHP and had the second best OPS vs. RHP over 161 games. Stats against all RHP != stats against good RHP.

I don't love it. I'm tired of it. I'm just emotionally dependent on it. Man, I thought you were more zen than me. I am. But I don't want to be zen about baseball. I want to love baseball. I can't love baseball with a team I hate. I hate the fans' attitudes, I hate the field, I hate the history, I hate the stupid way the streak follows them around in every piece of media coverage they ever get, anywhere, about anything related to the team. But there's this stupid ethos that once you pick a team you stick with them, so I'm stuck with them.

Good call. Lee was obviously the villain in this series. And there is minimal blame to be put on Hendry. He put together a near 100 win team that didn't show up for the playoffs. That's not on him. They played tight and coughed it up. He made decisions that made them heavily right-handed, making them vulnerable to a team with lots of good right-handed pitching.

We tried that. It doesn't work. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2007.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2003.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/1998.shtml