Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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Give or take some flexibility on what you count as "great," neither Kb nor Javy has been a great player since leaving the Cubs. The further a guy gets past 24/25, the less reliable their greatness is, and you already have those years locked down under the cba for anyone you develop. Obviously you have to spend the money on something eventually, and free agents aren't guaranteed value either, but waiting as long as possible for more information increases your odds of hitting. If I'm paying for a guy's age 28-32 seasons, I wanna see 26 and 27 first, not commit to it when he's 25.
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Yes, I think extensions are usually overvalued unless they come at an extreme discount. Baseball players are extremely volatile. Having control without commitment is *extremely" valuable and shouldn't be given away lightly. Having a development engine is the only real way to sustain success
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I'm generally extension-skeptic, and I like that they're keeping these deals short-term and buying out just a couple of free agent years
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- nico hoerner
- ian happ
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Always had it, never didn't have it, was never worried
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If they managed to finish dead last, it's a 28.5% chance of picking first and I think about the same to pick 2nd, so your odds of staying in the top-2 are better than 50/50. Once you drop to 2nd, your odds of dropping outside the top 2 go up pretty drastically. So I think yeah, if you're in the blackhawks spot right now, locking in 2nd would be worth it even if it meant forgoing a chance at one.
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Garden variety 3-run single
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I'm pretty sure I saw him mouth "screw you Andy from NSBB" as he donged.
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Happ always looks to me like a guy who has absolutely zero baseball skill when he's not homering or walking.
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6-3 putouts with a Hosmer scoop are the new dongs
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I don't know (maybe don't even care) if it's actually more valuable to have a better bat there, his defense is noticeable
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When did "sweeper" become its own pitch category?
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We only have apple tv on one smart tv and my kid won't let me watch it right now. Oh well.
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Sure. But we all agreed that winning in the playoffs was mostly luck.
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I have no idea how the value math adds up, but his defense at first has been noticeable in a positive way.
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4/4 Cubs (Wesneski) @ Reds (Cessa) 5:40 PM CT
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Bertz's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
At least we are babiping -
4/4 Cubs (Wesneski) @ Reds (Cessa) 5:40 PM CT
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Bertz's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
This team isn't even gonna try to build up some entertainment this season. Soz to the new site owners -
4/4 Cubs (Wesneski) @ Reds (Cessa) 5:40 PM CT
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Bertz's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Wesneski looks like he's playing Rizzo pre super soldier serum -
I haven't loved every decision Ross made, but managers look smart when they have good teams and dumb when they have bad ones. Unless they are maliciously hurting their own players like Dusty Baker, they don't matter.
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100% what squally said. This is why the whole "bring in a bunch of guys and we who sticks" thing doesn't work, in the bullpen or anywhere else. Because in order to find out if your "low-cost" gamble worked, you have to commit major league playing time to them, and they will probably suck, and that *is* a cost.
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Half right. I never said they wouldn't win the world series. Winning the world series or not is mostly a function of luck, so long as you make the playoffs consistently. I was extremely skeptical of Javy Baez due to his k-rate, but he did overcome that and turn out way better than I thought. Im sure I was wrong about plenty of other stuff though. I'm wrong just as often as anyone else. But there's no correlation between the times when I'm wrong and the times people act as if my takes are terrible and I'm just doing them to be contrary. One more victory lap. Although there were more people here who agreed with this one:. Primes come way earlier than traditionally thought, which is part of why these grand rebuilds don't really set you up for sustained success. Kris Bryant had his best season by fWAR at age 24. Anthony Rizzo had his at 24 too. Russell 22. Baez 25. The only late bloomers were the guys who never really reached star status like Schwarber and Soler.
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Here's a post from 2012 in which I directly make the Epstein=new MacPhail comparison: Also in that thread, I am told that I am a complete worthless idiot for suggesting that the 2012 bullpen was a possible indication that the new front office wasn't good at identifying pitching.
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That one I won't dispute
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2012 wasn't "the day Theo took over.". That was in 2011. By the end of 2012, he had 15 months and a hard tanked season under his belt. You don't hard tank unless you don't *really* think you can build sustained success Although I do recall arguing specifically that I didn't want Epstein in 2011, or at least that he wasn't my first choice, because I don't trust experienced guys to 1) find new market inefficiencies and 2) be hungry enough to treat their new teams as seriously as their old teams. I said I wanted to try to find the next Epstein, not the last one
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And I criticized the plan from day 1. In fact, most of this board criticized the plan up until day 1. A gut rebuild was a wildly unpopular idea here all the way up to the 2011 offseason. Just for the record, this is me predicting we will have another gut rebuild by 2033.
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Damn. It's a shame that when I have an opinion, I'm notorious for posting it a single time or even keeping it to myself if it's unpopular. Here's one exactly predicting our post-2016 reality before it happened: https://northsidebaseball.com/forums/topic/45617-front-office-thread/?do=findComment&comment=3198107 To be fair, that draft class did eventually cross 6.2 bWAR, thanks entirely to the late emergence of David Bote
