It's not about whether this was specifically predicted. It's about acknowledging the range of possibilities. The Cubs had a lot of slightly-past-their-prime and injury prone players, so I think it's safe to say the "worst-case" end of their bell curve was at least a little more likely than it was for most teams. And even given that, we're getting pretty average or above seasons from Derek Lee, Fukudome and Ryan Theriot, and Ramirez was doing great until he got hurt. If you swap Wells and Harden's ERAs, you get almost exactly what you'd expect from the entire starting rotation. The bullpen doesn't look that bad. Soriano, Soto, Bradley and 2b are where the sucking is coming from.