Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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His career splits are weirdly even: vs. righties: .271 .335 .394 vs. lefties: .271 .337 .380 To me, that's what ruins his value.
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If we could replace the plate appearances they've already had with Lugo, I'd be all for it. But I think both safely project to do better in the second half.
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Combined offensively and defensively, I'm not sure he's better than either half of the platoon going forward, and I'm sure we could do better by focusing on picking up other halves. If we absolutely had to fill 2b in one roster spot, then he wouldn't be an awful option, but we really should be able to make up a platoon of two players, each of whom are better at their half than Lugo would be.
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Absolutely, positively no thanks to Lugo. He's washed up defensively, and offensively he provides no platoon advantage. If we're going to go to the scrap heap to find a middle infielder, we should at least get one who is good defensively and can hit left-handed pitchers. Those shouldn't be that hard to find.
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Yes, but that's just one WAG interpretation of the data, of which I am wary of stating with too much faith.
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But why is his LD% lower this year than normally? Is it just a fluke? Just a WAG, but look at both the velocity and the pitch selection, I'd say he's nibbling. His fastball is show (87.3 MPH average), and he's gone from throwing his slider 20% of the time to 40% of the time, causing both the high walk rate and the lower contact rate.
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I would assume if a pitcher could control his LD ratio, he could control his BABIP. I was thinking that pitchers control GB/FB, batters control LD/FB. But that could very well be wildly, wildly wrong.
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Lefties who don't get hit hard by other lefties but can't throw strikes are a dime a dozen. The only difference between this one and the dozens is that he's got a 'proven major league track record,' which is just going to tempt them into using him in the majors the first time he puts up five innings of balls hit right at guys in Iowa. So he's not been getting hit hard by lefties to this point, but he'll start getting hit hard by lefties in Iowa? I didn't say that. Every pitcher has stretches where they put up good ERAs for a few innings because balls go right at guys, hard-hit or not. It's part of the ebb and flow of a baseball season. The moment Ryan has his, he'll be in the majors because he's a proven vet, regardless of whether he's still walking almost a guy an inning and throwing up 87 mph meatballs.
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Lefties who don't get hit hard by other lefties but can't throw strikes are a dime a dozen. The only difference between this one and the dozens is that he's got a 'proven major league track record,' which is just going to tempt them into using him in the majors the first time he puts up five innings of balls hit right at guys in Iowa.
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There's always a chance. I don't see why his chance is any different than dozens of other washed up pitchers floating around the majors and minors. Because he's got a little more track record of success than most washed up pitchers? When your arm is fundamentally different from when you put up those numbers, you can throw the track record out the window. When a 33-year-old pitcher is almost two years removed from major arm problems and has shown no signs of regaining his stuff, it's safe to assume that his arm is shot.
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So if we ignore the stat that he sucks at, which is the most important offensive stat in the game, his numbers in a 45-PA sample size against lefties are good? He did the same thing last year, walking 11 lefties in 76 PAs. I see no reason to presume it won't continue, and combined with the clear loss of velocity, he's just another washed-up, hurt arm.
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There's always a chance. I don't see why his chance is any different than dozens of other washed up pitchers floating around the majors and minors.
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The old "He was good except when he wasn't" argument. 8.2 IP, 6 BB, 1 HR, 3 K just means that he had a lot of balls hit at fielders to keep his ERA that low. It was a BABIP fluke. So he can't just be good for a stretch, he has to be 100% terrible with fluky flashes of decency? Nevermind the fact that his ERA+ over his last 5 full seasons was 198, he must be 100% trash now? There's no way that his good month was due to his ability as a pitcher? With three strikeouts and six walks, the good ERA for a cherrypicked stretch was not because of his good pitching. It was a fluke. His ERA+ for the last five full seasons was when he was a completely different pitcher: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=168&position=P#pitchtype He's lost 2.5-3 mph off his fastball and is forced to rely on his slider way too much now. He's a broken, bad pitcher at this point in his career, and I highly suspect the Cubs will waste some innings and at least one or two games in 2009 relearning that lesson.
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Depressing Thought...(Maybe we don't have it so bad...)
Hairyducked Idiot replied to moorecg's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
They need to qualify that more. The 1946 Cubs started out 3-0 and held first place by themselves for a day, and held it with ties for the first four days of the season. I assume they mean "after a certain point." -
The old "He was good except when he wasn't" argument. 8.2 IP, 6 BB, 1 HR, 3 K just means that he had a lot of balls hit at fielders to keep his ERA that low. It was a BABIP fluke.
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Does this not work for anybody else? If you open the image in a new window by itself, you can see it. It's pretty good.
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I wonder what the record is for highest ERA with better than one K per inning pitched.
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Bertrand, Richardson, and Paul all committed early in their junior years within a week of each other. Richmond's the only freshman who's verballed. i don't even think bertrand was an illinois lean in 10th grade. bruce showed up a lot in sterling to see him play, though. it's hard to turn down a guy who has been having dinner with your family since you were 14 years old. As soon as Weber showed up in town, everyone in Sterling assumed he was going to Illinois. At least that's how I recall it, and we all know how memory can be tricky.
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It's not free. At some point, you have to give him major-league innings to find out anything useful. Those aren't free.
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There's always an opportunity cost. I very much doubt they'll be waiting for a statistically valid sample of results before they start giving him major-league innings.
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Prediction, he pitches something like 6 innings, 2 ER, 3 K, 5 BB, 6 H in AAA, gets called up, gets shelled a few times and costs the team a game or two.
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Dont tell Cardinals fans this, hes the 2nd coming of Jesus if you ask most of them. I wish we had a few more 22 year olds with .395 career OBPs in the minors.
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I'll take even money that they don't have an eight-game winning streak between now and the end of the season.
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I'd really have to think Halladay+Wells gives you almost nothing in return. Wells' negative trade value is as large as Halladay's positive, I'd guess. That's just an awful, awful contract.