TXCubsFan

Don't be greedy! I think there may be a chance of this trading happening, now that Theriot has shown signs of life.

There are a number of excellent hitters who can sustain higher BABIP's over a series of years or over an entire career. Certainly not many, very few above .330. The highest I'm aware of in the current majors is Derek jeter, who had a .360 BABIP over his 11 seasons entering this year. Kirby Puckett was a career .334. Rod Carew was .361. Ted Williams .329. Tony Gwynn .345. Nomar .323. Harvey on season is .304 BABIP. So he's been non-sustainably hot lately, but his composite numbers are pretty normal, he must have had some bad luck early? If you project Harvey's current numbers to a full, 160-game big-league season, you might project around 30 HR. The league might well have interest in a rocket-armed gold-glove RF who hit .250 with 30 HR's, even if his OBP was lousy. The pessimist says that his horrible IsoD and K-rates agree that he's got no clue, that he can't see or react to pitches, and that it's likely that even better pitchers will kill him. That he won't be able to sustain his BABIP or HR rate, that he'll K even more, that his average and HR's will *not* hold up in higher leagues. The optimist in me says that his walk and K-rates are so incredibly bad, tht with experience he can't help but get more selective, raise his IsoD, and become a smart and more selective hitter. He's still only 21. If so, his current output isn't that far short. A few extra walks, a few extra HR's, a few fewer K's, and suddenly a .718 OPS guy is a .788 OPS guy. Take his current numbers, add 8 walks, 4 HR's, and convert 6 of his K's into batted balls, and suddenly you've got a .264BA-.320 OBP-.480slugging-.800 OPS guy, with the RF rocket, and he's back in our top 5. Obviously adding 8 walks and 4 HR's, all while removing 6 K's, that isn't easy. I'm just trying to illustrate how it's not like he needs an immediate total makeover to get interesting. Just some small incremental adjustments. 8 more walks's and we'd still peg him as a horrific hackaway. 6 fewer K's and we'd still say his swing is full of holes. 4 more HR's, well, we've always said he was really strong. The same general profile; just some incremental small-step improvements in every area. Harvey might make a nice #6 hitter in the majors: good SLG, low OBP, excellent defense. Maybe not a superstar, but a complementary piece on a good team.

And in equally stunning news, the sun rose in the East this morning.

Did he run through a coach's stop sign?

I thought one of the best posts on the subject of OBP and runs scored on this board was the percentage of baserunners that scored, by team, for the NL Central. The percentages were almost identical across teams, which meant that the most important stat was getting runners on base, period. Jim Hendry, remember, you can't steal first.

Sounds a lot like a certain shortstop that we all know and love. Sounds like the kind of player who's weaknesses would be exacerbated by our coaches. I would like to keep Aram. However, if the trade goes through, Aybar is the best type of OBP player we're going to expect from a non-power guy under Hendry. Hendry doesn't discount OBP as much as stated on this board, he discounts walks. That's why I would be happy if he resigned Pierre, who is the same type of low IsoD hitter. We aren't going to see a trade for Dunn or Quentin while Hendry is GM. :cry:

Maddux's best value right now is mentoring Marshall, Marmol, and Hill.

He apparently ate that last spoon of Wheaties DJAXX, is there a way for you to contact someone in the Cubs' organization or Daytona radio broadcast team that might have some insight on the dramatic turnaround Harvey has had the past couple of weeks?

Guess the Rangers new strategy is to score 20 runs a game to win games. Could you imagine if they added Tejada to that lineup? :shock: If Koronka is part of your starting rotation, then you'll need to score 20 runs a game.

Daddy, daddy I want a rainbow now. Make me a rainbow. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Only newsworthy if it frees up Carlos Quentin to be traded to the Cubs. :lol:

I've seen Hill pitch at Round Rock. He has three pitches that are good enough to make him a #4 starter in the majors. Rich, however, may not have the temperament to be a good starter, and he might be better off pitching in middle relief or as a LOOGY.

Too damn few!

Remlinger and Farnsworth were both good in 2003. Veres too. Farnsworth has always been useless under pressure. Veres was injured towards the end of the season. El Pulpo was erratic, as was Juan Cruz. Not a group of players I would want pitching with the game on the line.

At the end of the day, any fault about the how the pitching staff was used in 2003 should be put at the feet of Hendry. I can't fault Dusty for leaning on his starters because the bullpen (except for Borowski) was awful, and not worthy of a team in the hunt for a playoff spot.

I've gotten to the point where I think the Cubs should trade Prior in the offseason, even if it means getting a mediocre prospect or eating salary. This organization has plenty of good young pitching prospects on which to build, and I'm getting tired of Wood/Prior saga. The only veteran pitcher I'd be willing to sign for 2007 is Mad Dog, so he can serve as a mentor to prospects like Marshall, Marmol, and Wells.

Theriot looked weak in the field and at the plate. I don't blame Hendry for using Neifi over Theriot.

Wow! Ryu, Hill, Guzman, and Wells are looking good at Iowa these days. Do the Cubs really need another veteran starter at Wrigley in 2007? Seems signing a veteran reliever as a free agent would make more sense.

I've thought the same thing.

Not too shabby. My only complaint is 4 walks. You just can't please some people. :roll: :wink:

The OBP problem with the Cubs isn't their middle of the lineup hitters such as Lee, Barrett, and ARam. The problem is ignoring that walks for their #1 and #2 hitters are as important as hits for the purposes of scoring runs. It's ignoring that walks for their #7 and #8 hitters can start big innings. It's ignoring that plate discipline will raise the pitch counts of their opponent's top starters, allowing the Cub hitters to face the opponent's bullpen sooner.

The problem is, he was specifically talking about in the minors. Averages are really hard to predict year-in, year-out with minor league guys. One of the best ways to determine how well a guy will do as he advances through the minor leagues is not his average or K/BB (both of which are common threads for a lot of guys this team targets), but his IsoD, which IS a measure of how many walks (and HBPs) a guy takes. People point to strikeouts being the problem with Ryan Harvey and Brian Dopirak as they have advanced. However, what people tend not to realize was that their walk rates were absolutely putrid, especially when you factor out IBBs. These guys had reasonable averages and everything, but they were focused more on making contact than on taking pitches. Averages are incredibly hard to predict, year in, year out. So many things go into them: luck, defense, selectiveness, and so on. Those of us who follow BABIP see this; there are elements that can inflate or deflate a guy's average in any given year. The point of my post regarding Pierre was to show that high averages DO NOT correlate to high OBPs all the time. Look at guys like Robinson Cano, Gary Matthews Jr, Miguel Tejada, and a number of the other guys who are hitting over .300 this year. Even though they have good averages, their on base percentages are not much higher. That element of their game is a weakness. However, with guys like Travis Hafner, Bobby Abreu, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, and so on, they have that ability not to make outs. They hit well, but they also take walks and have OBPs in the .400s. I maintain that the reason why they are such good hitters is not because they know how to hit, but also because they have a really good approach at the plate that allows them to not make outs. The Cubs can't get that through their heads. They'd rather have a guy who hits .300/.350 than a guy who hits .270/.380 because they value hits over walks. That kind of approach in the minor leagues is simply begging for trouble, especially considering guys will continue to face more advanced pitching as they ascend the minors. The truth is, if they're at the same levels, same ages, and so on, the .270/.380 guy is more likely to reach the majors and succeed than the .300/.350 guy. With Hendry's philosophy, the best outcome you can expect from a minor leaguer in your system will be Jacque Jones - a high OPS guy who doesn't walk enough, a prototypical #6 hitter. If the Cubs want to be successful, they should just concentrate on drafting pitchers and getting their starting lineups with trades and free agents signings. Interesting that Barrett and Lee took the next step with the Cubs, and that Jacque recaptured his mojo at Wrigley. Perhaps Hendry and company are good at identifying major league hitters but lousy at developing hitting prospects.

I saw Rich pitch in Round Rock earlier this year, and you hit the nail on the head. At Round Rock Rich was using three pitches, including a tight rather than than 12-6 curve ball. Rich was striking out batters on high fastballs that I thought at the time major league hitters would have crushed. His performance made me think he had the stuff to be a #4 starter in the majors if he'd use his off-speed pitches more in strikeout counts.

I think it's time to trade Prior for what we can get. With all the young pitching prospects ready for Wrigley in 2007 (e.g., Gallagher, Guzman, Marmol, Marshall, and Wells), I believe it's time for the Cubs to move in a new direction.

Looks like they're trying to trade Rusch. Hopefully, he'll have a good game.