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hawkeyecub

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Everything posted by hawkeyecub

  1. hawkeyecub
    Adjusting for opportunity, the difference between Lee and Choi this season works out to be about 55 runs, or 5-6 wins. In your proposed scenario, I'd say that a Cubs team with Choi+$8 million worth of produciton elsewhere would finish 3-4 games behind the Cubs with Lee manning first. Worse, but not radically so. Sub in Tracy for Choi, and difference dwindles down to a game or less... I just have an incredibly hard time buying that. Downgrading at 1st base from the most productive player in baseball this year, to a much poorer defensive first baseman who has a sub-.800 OPS would only cost us 5-6 games? Wouldn't that be comprable to saying that if we had Vlad or Manny in LF this year, we would only have been 3-4 games better? It's only a .230 differential in OPS as opposed to roughly 300 points in the case of Lee/Choi. I guess I just have a difficult time believing that if Vlad or Manny were our everyday LF and no other changes to the lineup were made, we would only have been able to win roughly 4 additional games. Things like that are just seem incredibly difficult to measure in my opinion.
  2. hawkeyecub
    He's a high character guy and you build around MVP's. I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up a 1.000 Ops next year. Sounds like he made some adjustments to his swing last offseason, so he should continue w/ the power. Can't see him batting for as high of average though. He's hit .295/.390/.597 since the all star break, I think that's the type of line you could realistically expect next year. That is still very good, and well above his career numbers, but significantly off the pace of your typical MVP candidate. Would a .987 OPS be significantly off the pace of a typical MVP candidate? I don't know if it is, and I guess it would depend on how many HR were included in that .597 SLG and how many RBI he had. If Lee had a .987 OPS this year, it would be good enough for 3rd in the NL and 6th in the game. There are only 5 players in all of baseball with a 1.000+ OPS and Ortiz is at 1.001.
  3. hawkeyecub
    There is no better coach at blowing a huge lead than John L. Smith. Wow, that collapse may have topped last year's Michigan game if they hadn't pulled it out in OT. That Notre Dame game went about like I expected although I didn't see a ton of it. MSU's defense is pretty weak (and ND's isn't exactly great) but both have very good offenses. We got fairly lucky on the scheduling that we miss out on MSU this year and next, so we don't have to face Stanton again. I didn't see the Oklahoma game, but I'm surprised they lost by 3 scores if Bomar had such a solid game. I'm guessing UCLA was just determined not to let AD beat them. Coming into this year I thought they could finish 2nd in the PAC 10, but wasn't so sure about Dorrell. They have some serious talent on both sides of the ball though. I really wish Clemson would have held off Miami.
  4. hawkeyecub
    Yeah he's playing. He lost memory of what happened right after the hit and during part of the second half, but never had a headache and was never sick. He was held out of practice until yesterday and everything went good then. As far as the arrogant/beligerant fans go, Notre Dame, Michigan and Ohio State definitely take the cake in the midwest. Wisconsin/Packer fans are just annoying and beligerant.
  5. hawkeyecub
    Well if there is a fumble that is very close or could go either way, they should always call it a fumble because that can be overturned. If they call him down and they're wrong, there's nothing that can be done to correct it. With that said it did seem like officials were almost relying on replay to do their job at times this weekend. If you know he was down, just call him down and avoid the break in the game.
  6. hawkeyecub
    Losing Tate didn't help, but I'm not sure if it would have changed the outcome. We had 3 first half turnovers already when he went out, but were only trailing 9-0 midway through the 2nd. We came out flat/tight, and they came out ready to win their Super Bowl. Manson threw a big INT which was returned for a touchdown with only a few minutes left in the half. After that he didn't play all that badly and suffered through some very poor protection and a lot of drops. Basically the story of the game was our 5 turnovers. That's almost always impossible to overcome, but especially on the road against a team who always plays their best game of the year against us. The OSU/Texas game was a very good one. OSU's defense (Hawk in particular) looked great. Young played a real solid game. They limited him on the ground after a big first drive, but he looked better with his arm than I expected. Ohio State's offense wasn't very impressive though. I didn't see much of the Georgia game at all, but Arizona State/LSU was a very good game.
  7. hawkeyecub
    Your odds are way too high. Unless we can win 26-28 of our last 30, we don't have a chance. The depressing thing is that if we had played decent baseball since leaving Houston, we would still be in this thing.
  8. hawkeyecub
    I would too, but not a single one of those deals are very realistic.
  9. hawkeyecub
    Now we've definitely got him.
  10. hawkeyecub
    He is? I guess I haven't seen that. He's been an OF this year because that's where our biggest need for him has been, not second base. I don't understand where you're going with that or why you're complaining that he's been used in our awful outfield.
  11. hawkeyecub
    No one has any idea how many games we're going to have to win. To say we have to win 75-80% is just guesswork. To say we have to do that to have a realistic shot is just wrong in my opinion. I don't think it's going to take 90 wins to get the Wild Card. None of these teams are that good and all of the East teams play each other too many times. I could definitely see 88 wins taking it, but it's impossible to say right now. These teams have all been too streaky and unpredictable and have too many games remaining against each other.
  12. hawkeyecub
    Brilliant.
  13. hawkeyecub
    Where did that 1-2 pitch miss?
  14. hawkeyecub
    Except for the "easy out hole" known as Burnitz. :x He was 4-8 coming into tonight. Plus Lawton is horrible against lefties. I'm convinced that there's no possible lineup Dusty could put together without people complaining here.
  15. hawkeyecub
    Great lineup tonight.
  16. hawkeyecub
    What's the point of a Griffey deal? Why take on that enormous contract for a guy who's main value comes from playing CF and is extremely fragile? Long-term it just makes no sense. Plus you're talking about giving up player/prospects, taking on a lot of money, and eating whatever portion is left of Burnitz's contract. He may be an upgrade in the last 1.5 months but he wouldn't be a total difference maker in our position. Long-term it just makes no sense. We have Corey now and Pie in the future who can man CF. I'd rather use that money (and save some) to add Giles to the corner, use Corey/Pie in CF and go with Lawton in LF. Burnitz is streaky and I think he'll get going soon. Even so, I think with adding Nomar and Corey the starting pitching down the stretch will be a bigger key than RF production.
  17. hawkeyecub
    I don't know about that. If you do that we're getting almost no power out of our outfield and sacrificing some defense. Burnitz is streaky and I expect him to get hot soon.
  18. hawkeyecub
    Dave Kingman had a career OBP of .305. So, no, Billy Beane NEVER would have "loved a lineup full of Kingman's." Now, if you want to say he would have loved a lineup full of Bellhorns, Thomes, Chois, etc., I'll agree with you. I didn't say that, that's what Olney said. He said "a lineup full of Kingman's who hit a lot of home runs and wouldn't care if they struck out a lot."
  19. hawkeyecub
    Consistency! That will be the key. It's possible with the remaining games against Houston and the other teams in the race aren't exactly stellar. With Lawton, Nomar, and now Wood giving us a boost in the bullpen we should have a shot at making a run. But we need to get solid starting pitching and play consistently well overall. If we get hot, we can't turn around and drop 4-6 in a row again.
  20. hawkeyecub
    I can't stand Morgan, but I think I would rather listen to him than McCarver.
  21. hawkeyecub
    Good lineup, let's hit Morris hard tonight and have a little momentum heading into that Astros series. Prior's going to have a great game tonight and White will continue his surge since switching to #24.
  22. hawkeyecub
    So this is what you resort to when some of your claims have been proven wrong? Why didn't you answer any of the questions posed to you? Instead you just resort to wait and see, I'm right? And don't tell me I know you're right. I don't think you're right and that's why I spent all that time refuting your statements. This baiting is ridiculous.
  23. hawkeyecub
    Yeah sorry I don't have the exact quotes, that's why I asked if anyone had read anything on this topic. Olney was just relaying the information from a conversation he had with Beane. And yes by calling them contact hitters it didn't mean that they have one of the highest team batting averages, but they put the ball into play more than anyone else, because they strike out the least. Also from what Olney said, it sounded like Beane valued hitters that make contact and put the ball into play more than hitters that make productive outs. During the BBTN segment he didn't even mention productive outs. When he was on ESPN News he said the same thing, but also said something about how much they've improved at moving runners over and making productive outs. He said it right with the Beane quotes so it was hard to tell if that was also coming from Billy, or if Olney was adding that in on his own.
  24. hawkeyecub
    Your use of hyperbole is staggering. You KNEW Nomar was going down FOR THE SEASON, because he always goes down and he's made of glass? Wow. Are you sure about that? From '97-2000 he never played fewer than 135 games. In '01 he missed almost the entire season. He played 156 games in '02 and 156 games in '03. Last year he played exactly half a season (81 games). So in his 9 career seasons coming into '05 there were only 2 seasons where he played less than 135 games. But you're right he's made of glass and always goes down. :roll: Again, Hendry had a solid closer in Spring Training in Dempster. Many here were comfortable with Hawkins starting the season as closer because he had always been an effective reliever in the past. Like I said as far as middle relief, I'm glad he didn't spend the big bucks. Relievers are incredibly inconsistent and for every Dustin Hermanson you name I can name 10 who have flopped after getting a big contract. Why not dump Remlinger until now? Maybe because he wanted to see if he could still pitch. Early on he was effective when used properly. I already adressed your bogus claim that Nomar is made of glass and has never stayed healthy. Again name me one backup SS who was available and better than Neifi. That's all I'm asking. Don't use that "Cubbie Kool-Aid" condescending tone with me. That's the last thing I'm doing and the last thing I've done all season.
  25. hawkeyecub
    Buster Olney was on Baseball Tonight as they were discussing the A's success. Surprisingly, the A's are first in the league in least amount of strikeouts per batter. Essentially, they've been the best contact hitting team in the league which of course wouldn't have been expected. He said in talking to Beane, Billy told him the biggest philosophy change he's made is regarding the strikeout. Olney said a few years ago Beane would have loved a lineup full of Kingman's, but not so anymore. I also caught him on ESPN News discussing the same topic, saying that watching this team and previous teams he's gained an appreciation for putting the ball in play and making so-called productive outs. Has anyone read or heard anything similar? Thoughts?
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