Brian Kelder

Even the most hardened cynic would have to admit that the Cubs starting pitching shoved this year. Cooked, even. Relief, well, not so much, but they won’t be getting any awards, will they? An overwhelming positive in this season, the Cubs rotation was the main positive for 2024. The top four starters therefore all receive mention in this section. Pitching wins, right? The Cubs ended up with winning more games than they lost in 2024, so a few pitchers must have done some good... Today we tackle the question of who the Cubs best pitcher was in 2024. But, first... Special Mention: Kyle Hendricks With a 4-12 record and career high-5.92 ERA (a full run higher than his previous worst in 2022), this is probably it for The Professor. Until they robbed him of his sticky substances, he was as good as any pitcher the Cubs have had this side of Greg Maddux. Happy trails, Kyle, and thanks for the memories. Honorable Mention: Javier Assad 7-6, 3,73, 29 starts, 124 K in 147 innings, 1.40 WHIP Assad Is a bit of a sabermetrician nightmare. His underlying peripherals aren’t pretty, as evidenced by his 4.64 FIP. He only averages five innings per start. His starts often involve high pitch counts in early innings and runners on the bases constantly. But you do have to give him some credit. Assad and his competitiveness and knack for getting out of trouble is his best attribute. While not as angry as Carlos Zambrano, he does get excited out there. Assad also simply posts his five innings, every start, and gave the Cubs competitive outings. While no poems will be written about his season and The Baseball Project band won’t come off hiatus to write a song about him, he does deserve mention for making the Cubs season more enjoyable. Maybe he can outrun that FIP in perpetuity. #3: Justin Steele 5-5, 3.07 ERA, 24 starts, 135 innings, 135 K, 1.10 WHIP, 3.23 FIP If you look only at the statistics, then Steele has a case to be the winner of this contest. Steele, when healthy, is absolutely solid. He will give six quality innings every time he takes the mound. Probably should be in All-Star consideration and MLB.com ranked him in their top 30 starters in the league. This website has floated the idea of a Steele trade, and third place seems strange, but it’s those injuries. It’s fair to question if Steele can finish a season healthy and with enough stamina to finish the race and be a factor in October. With a hamstring and elbow injuries this season, those fears have only been escalated, not assuaged, and in thinking of season awards disqualify him from being nominated the 2024 ace. #2: Jameson Taillon 12-8, 3.27 ERA, 28 starts, 165 innings, 125 K, 1.13 WHIP, 3.92 FIP Taillon was incredible at Wrigley Field this season. 8-4 and a 2.18 ERA (4.58 on the road), regardless of how the park played, are impressive numbers. Taillon started off with a nagging injury, and persevered through some trade rumors to have a season that many may not have appreciated in real time. If the Cubs add another arm, Taillon is exactly the steady presence the Cubs rotation can use for the next two years. Always steady and occasionally spectacular, Taillon might not outperform projections, but he will take the post and give the Cubs exactly what they ask of him. The Winner: Shota Imanaga 15-3, 2.91, 29 starts, 173 innings, 174 K, 1.02 WHIP, 3.72 FIP In retrospect, this should not have been a surprise. Japanese pitchers like Yu Darvish, early Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Hideo Nomo showed us that imports from the Land of the Rising Sun often excel early in their MLB transition. In the World Cup of Baseball, it was Shota who got the call to start that game. Except for one injury plagued year, his Japanese league ERA were under three in every season since 2016. Given his eight years of experience and high-quality pitching, Shota almost shouldn’t be considered rookie. His signing was the best value for a free agent deal in the league. Little more needs to be said about Shota Imanaga, so forgive me for making this more personal. As a pessimist and skeptic of all things Jed Hoyer, Shota forced this aging cantankerous writer to enjoy Cub games again, almost single handedly. He’s a true ace, with the skills and personality to force a fan to watch and not be able to help enjoying what’s on the screen, For this reason, along with his stellar production, Shota Imanaga probably is the team MVP, Pitcher and Rookie of the year. What a great, great season. What do you think? This was probably a pretty easy vote for the winner, but which other pitchers do you feel pretty comfortable with heading into the 2025 season? Discuss below. View full article

Cam Smith I know I'm probably the high man on Cam Smith, but he's got the size and hitting profile to be a superstar. Could be the next Wrigley Field heroMatt Shaw Good prospect but doesn't to me have the elite upside of Smith. I also doubt heavy leg kicks Moises Ballesteros Good hitter. Frame is concerning.Kevin AlcantaraJefferson RojasJames TriantosOwen CaissieCade HortonAlexander CanarioJonathon LongDerniche ValdezLuis VazquezJaxon WigginsBJ Murray JrMichael AriasDrew GrayCristian HernandezPedro RamirezFernando CruzPablo Aliendo

Jed Hoyer took to the podium for his annual "We Missed the Playoffs Again" press conference. He doesn't give away much, but luckily, there are people out there who speak Jed. What he did say, once you translate him, lent insight on his philosophy. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports Jed Hoyer spoke on a wide variety of topics Tuesday. What did he really say, though? Here are the key pull-quotes, followed by some thoughts on their implications. A warning, though: the indications he gave don't point toward a huge outlay around the corner. "I'm excited about next year. I think we're building from a great foundation going forward." "Do we need a star, a start player [to get us] through those slumps. Hard thing to figure. If I look at the 12 teams in the playoffs, every team in the playoffs has a guy with 5 or more wins [above replacement] this year. Having players outperform expectations is a big part of it. Only 5 of the 14 were projected to have a 5 win season. I think that's what we lacked this year. [Our players] kind of got back to their numbers, maybe a hair above, a hair below. Nobody had that carrying year that Cody [Bellinger] had last year. There's a number of guys who can do that on the roster going forward." "It may be external, it may well be internal to get that [star] player." "We have to beat projections; we have to outperform. Having players outperform those projections is how we have those seasons we want to have." He's absolutely right--about some of that. Here's a list of the National League's top players for playoff teams: Francisco Lindor: 7 WAR (Baseball Reference) Bryce Harper: 4.8 WAR Marcell Ozuna: 4.3 WAR with a 154 WRC+ Jackson Merrill: 4.4 WAR William Contreras 4.9 WAR, Brice Turang 4.7, Jackson Chourio 3.8 Shohei Ohtani: 9 WAR Of the top 21 players in the league, with the arbitrary 5-WAR cutoff Hoyer mentioned, 14 did make the playoffs. It's safe to say that you do need someone to perform at that level to get to that magical 90-win level, above which it's essentially impossible to miss the playoffs. The Cubs' leader, according to Baseball Reference, is Dansby Swanson at 4 WAR. While this may cause fans to check back in and reevaluate Swanson's season, it's also disingenuous of Hoyer to act like Swanson--or any other current member of the Cubs--has a track record that compares favorably to those above. Who has that potential to crack the 5-WAR level? It's the fatal flaw in what Hoyer has constructed. If any Cub on this year's team hit that lofty number, it would be a massive surprise. Just look at the players. Ian Happ had a career season. Very nice player. Unlikely to improve from his 4 WAR this year. Swanson was solid. Decent bat. But let's be honest here. Those guys listed above? All but Lindor carry their value with offense. What do the Cubs need more of? The opportunity cost of that $27 million in annual salary for Swanson is really hurting their flexibility given their self-imposed salary constraints. Michael Busch looks more like a steady contributor than a breakout star. Two or three WAR guy. Helpful, but not likely to have a breakout at that level. Isaac Paredes would be thrilled to get back anywhere near his 2023 numbers. He had a 4.3 WAR that season, and that was cut in half this season. Seiya Suzuki is an established veteran, and his value is well-known, but he's not at the elite level. He tops out at a possible 4 WAR, and if he's just a DH, that probability is lowered. He's a very, very good hitter, and is probably the guy Hoyer thinks can get to that level. It's just not ever happened. Based on Hoyer's comments on the subject, I'm not anticipating Cody Bellinger coming back. That means another bat that needs replacing. It's concerning to hear the head man for the Cubs talk about overperforming projections as part of a plan. Planning for overperformance isn't a plan, it's a hope. This is the quote we should have received: "When you don't have that elite star, the guys you have will underperform at times. What we are trying to do, like Atlanta did this year, is build a team that can sustain some underperformance thanks to elite play somewhere else. We don't want to rely on overperformance; we want our roster to be elite enough that it doesn't matter." As currently constructed, this roster would rely on more overperformance than anyone could reasonably expect in order to get to true contention. So, what did Hoyer answer when asked about adding a "star" and what that means this offseason? We're back to reality, now. "I think the goal is to build something sustainable. Craig actually talked about, you know, building 90-win teams. What he really means is [creating] that team [that] will project to do that year after year after year, that's a difficult thing to do. Only three teams were projected for 90 wins going into the season, so to get to a place where we can build our projections up and get to the postseason year after year after year, there's a level of discipline to get there. You don't want to take wild swings and do things that will expose you long-term. "I think the goal here is to get to a place where the playoffs are an expectation, where we're in a position to sustain success. I think we did that before, I think we got to a place where we made the playoffs six out of seven years. I think in doing that, we did take some chances. I think that led to a little bit of a trough here. I think that just getting back to making good decisions on a long-term basis, drafting and developing well, truly having a healthy organization can lead us to that sustained success where the playoffs are an expectation and not a surprise and not a one-year thing. That's the goal." It's impossible to read this and think that Jed Hoyer believes that free agency is the way to build a sustainable winning team. So, let's look at some rumored free-agent targets: Juan Soto: Forget it. Alex Bregman: Paredes cost the Cubs a pretty penny, and Hoyer mentioned his excitement for the incumbent third baseman in 2025. Not happening. Pete Alonso: That's a massive swing, and would be reactionary to the lack of power this year. He's also going to want to set the market at first base. This would not be seen as a long-term move that is intelligent. Not happening. Anthony Santander: They aren't going to invest the years in him, not with the prospects in Iowa. He's over 30, with an offensive profile that might not age well. Not happening. And these are bats at the top of the free agent market. They don't fit the stated philosophy. He later pontificated about the two types of currency, financial flexibility and young players. Not ever handing out a $200-million contract, while it does prevent certain targets from signing, does keep that flexibility. The Cubs do feel as if they are in a great place with young players, and that's what Hoyer has been talking about with breakouts and overperforming. He's staking his job on the youngsters coming up and making that impact. Peter Crow-Armstrong had a great August, but fell back into old patterns as September hit. His projections will be low, but he does have the potential to reach that 5-WAR level. He reached 2.7 WAR on FanGraphs this year, despite negative offensive value. If he can just post a 100 WRC+ over a full season, that's a 5-win player, albeit one who doesn't buoy the lineup as much as needed. Matt Shaw and Cam Smith have been elite producers in the minor leagues, as recent first-round picks. Perhaps they can replicate the prospect success of the Theo Epstein era. This offseason is not going to see seismic changes in how Jed Hoyer operates. We can expect a couple of pitchers to be signed who are not named Max Fried or Corbin Burnes. Bounce-back guys on pillow contracts, such as Walker Buehler and Shane Bieber, will be likely targets. He's not going to spend on Jack Flaherty or Luis Severino. Hoyer's style is to try to find next season's versions of these guys. When asked about the pressure of being in the last year of his contract, Hoyer said that he likes the pressure, he's pleased about what he's done, and Cub fans should feel good about it. There is certainly a case for this. The Cubs' future remains an open book, and there is only one arguably poor long-term deal, in Swanson. The prospect cache is still highly-regarded, if missing a surefire star. Hoyer has set things up very well in the event that another front office comes in and takes his place. Unfortunately, given his comments and stated philosophy, this looks to be a likely event. With the Cubs counting on overperformance and unwilling philosophically to add talent of consequence, these quotes could be the death knell of the Hoyer era. View full article

Dansby Swanson's signing certainly has not had the impact Jed Hoyer expected when he inked the shortstop to a seven-year deal prior to the 2023 season. Looking under the hood, there is reason to be concerned that the mistake will hamper the Cubs on the field and in the marketplace for years to come. Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images When Dansby Swanson and the Cubs agreed to a $177-million deal, everyone understood that he would have his peaks and valleys at the plate. The selling point was that he would be an elite defender at a premium position. Gold Glove awards would abound, and people who are smart about baseball would lovingly cite his sparkling defensive metrics. The value would all math out nicely. Alas: not so fast. Swanson's Defensive Runs Saved rating has cratered, dropping from 17 in 2023 to 5 this year. He led MLB in DRS at shortstop last year. This season, he's 11th, and there are several players who would also pass him up if you prorated their lower innings total out to a full season like Swanson's. What's going on here? Why isn't the elite shortstop at the top of the ranks? It's the range. Outs Above Average on Baseball Savant gives Swanson a ton of credit for rarely making errors. He's got a great set of hands. He's making all the plays that he can get to. He just doesn't get to as many balls as you would hope, especially while going to the right. He's gotten a step slower. In 144 games played, Swanson has 495 total chances. This ranks him seventh in the league, but if you go by per-game number of chances, he drops considerably. He's just not getting to balls with the range of Ezequiel Tovar, Masyn Winn, Elly De La Cruz, or Taylor Walls. By this statistic, even Trea Turner has demonstrated more range on ground balls. Swanson does not field as many ground balls as many other players, which is what we should expect. Forty-nine players have played at least 220 innings at short this year. Including Swanson, only 12 are 30 or older. Turner, who is only eight months Swanson's senior, is the oldest regular shortstop in baseball. We've already demonstrated a huge deduction in DRS. His 5 DRS places him essentially level with Corey Seager, and far below young whizzes like Winn, Tovar, and Zach Neto. Being an above-average shortstop is a good thing, but the sharp downward slope of the trend line here is worrisome. Given Swanson's age, it's fair to question if this is a long-term issue. He has never been an electric athlete, and any decline in range should be met with alarm. His arm is already below-average. It's been ranked in the 18th percentile of shortstops. He's not making up for a lack of range with a cannon. His lower half has betrayed him several times (multiple heel, knee issues), and injury problems don't ease up after three decades on the planet. They might continue to take him out of the lineup, and they're almost certain to continue eroding his defensive value even when he's out there. Actuarially speaking, we're also past the prime years for Swanson's bat. He'll turn 31 just as he reports to spring training next February. He's being paid for average performance offensively, to go along with elite defense. With the glovework dropping off, his wRC+ is also at 97, which means he's technically become a below-average hitter. His isolated power has really plummeted, from last year's .172 to this season's .145. They need him to be capable of producing something close to 25 homers per year; he's only managed 16 this season. The best years of almost any long-term deal come at the front end, and the front end of Swanson's deal has been underwhelming. Swanson has played a lot of games and takes pride in his position. The Cubs also have paid a hefty premium for him to be their long-term shortstop. Given the lack of options coming from the farm or available via free agency, he'll remain at short heading into next season. Hopefully, he'll show up in Arizona looking refreshed and healthy, and it will be a moot point, but should the Cubs have some sort of contingency plan in place in case this decline accelerates? Looking to the minors, there's no help to be had. Jefferson Rojas has been playing short in High A, but he's a 19-year-old who may need to repeat the level after managing only a .646 OPS. Christian Hernandez is at the same level, and could develop into an option in a few years, but no sooner. The Cubs somehow have a farm system chock-full of second basemen and outfielders. Nico Hoerner's arm also isn't suited to moving back to the left side of the infield. Brandon Crawford is often cited as a comparison for Swanson, in that he started at short well into his 30s. Offensively, the comparison is apt. Neither made their money as sluggers. However, Crawford's range and arm were both better at their respective peaks, and even so, the Giants stalwart was a below-average defender in four of his final six years at the position. Jed Hoyer took the risk with Swanson and went against his stated philosophy of not spending big on contracts for many years; he really needs this contract to maintain value going forward. In his quote, Hoyer says a contract like this is only for the "truly elite." Swanson, with his current plate production and range and arm, has not met that lofty standard. The Cubs need to account for this and take action with some sort of plan. Hoyer had better hope Swanson's defensive dip is just that, as opposed to the beginning of an accelerating downward slide. If this continues to be a missed signing and the team doesn't succeed, the Cubs will look to someone else to take the next big contractual risk. View full article

Thanks for the compliments and spread the word! You have great points and I might steal some

Now that the Cubs have hit the dreaded 0% playoff odds, it's time to analyze why they fell short in Tom Ricketts's stated expectation to win the division. In May and June, it was a deficient offense. They were the second-worst offense in the league for that long stretch. Take out those two months, and the club is 56-38. So, let's look ahead at the options the Cubs have to improve their offense and try to avoid a similar fate in 2025. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images Cody Bellinger, of course, is the big domino, and there are conflicting reports and counter-reports about his intentions. No matter what he decides, though, external additions need to be made. If he leaves, that just means they need to add two bats, instead of one. How can they do what's needed? There are a few avenues. OPTION ONE: Target a cheap team and take their power hitter. Specifically, the Guardians and the Athletics come to mind. Josh Naylor has slugged over 30 home runs and brings a phenomenal, frenetic energy to the Cleveland lineup, but that doesn't matter that much. What's important is that he's got only one year of team control remaining, and Kyle Manzardo has also hit well this September. Naylor has been a consistent power bat this season, one whom the Cubs could probably get for less than you would think. Only one year of control, sure, but bringing in Naylor buys some time for the kids to develop. The Athletics have a star hitter of an even higher caliber, in Brent Rooker. He's a late bloomer who has dealt with a ton of injuries in his career. At age 30, he's fully broken out. Rooker followed up his 30 homers and .817 OPS from 2023 with this incredible stat line: 5.5 WAR, 38 homers, a .302 AVG, a .956 OPS, and a 170 WRC+. This one would be an upset, but Rooker's visit to the Friendly Confines this week should affirm everyone's faith that he'd fit in there. The A's, presumably, want to sell some tickets in Sacramento, and Rooker is a draw for them. With three arbitration years remaining, cost isn't an obstacle even for the notoriously thrifty Athletics. The Cubs would have to part with at least two of their prized top-100 prospects; that's not happening for a 30-year-old. Factor in the difficulties a new role and pressure could have on Rooker, and this is highly unlikely, but it's possible. Brandon Lowe of the Rays is a possible free agent, though the team holds a fairly affordable option. He could fit in a lesser capacity as a decent power bat who could fill in at first, second, or DH. He would add a good bit of slug to the Cubs lineup when healthy, and act as a good stopgap for Matt Shaw and James Triantos to develop with less pressure. OPTION 2: Sign big-name free agents. Unless Juan Soto is miraculously available at half price, here are the guys the Cubs could realistically target--and whether they actually will: Alex Bregman: Nah, they've got Isaac Paredes. Pete Alonso: Will want to set the market for first basemen, in average salary if not in term. Does that seem like a Jed Hoyer thing to do? Willy Adames: The Cubs already have a Willy Adames. He's named Dansby Swanson. They can't tie up a bunch of money for him at second base, with its lesser defensive value. They should have traded for him instead of signing Swanson at all, but that's water under the bridge. Anthony Santender: Covered well here as a lateral move. Read the article! It's a good one. And that's the top of the market! It is not deep. If the Cubs are big free-agent players, it'll be on the pitching side, not the hitting. Look for incremental upgrades aimed at helping the team's depth and buying time for prospects to develop. Joc Pederson, Jorge Polanco, Lowe (if his club option is declined), and Max Kepler feel like the level of player the Cubs will be more likely to spend money on to improve in this market. OPTION 3: The Unknown Target Every offseason, someone is traded whom nobody knew was available. Perhaps the Blue Jays decide to reset, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette come to Wrigley. Depending on how the postseason goes, maybe the Guardians can't afford José Ramírez anymore. Are the Rangers going to shuffle around some pieces, like Adolis García or Marcus Semien? The point is that somebody will come available that we can't know right now, unless we are front office people. Corbin Burnes was a Brewers ace, until he wasn't. Chris Sale to the Braves was incredibly impactful. Luis Arráez, at one point, was a stalwart at the top of the Twins lineup. Sean Murphy and Matt Olson could still be leading Oakland to some wins. You get the drift. An opportunity will materialize. Will the Cubs be in position to seize it? OPTION 4: Play the kids. More on this later. It could actually happen and work, but we're focusing on additions, not in-house guys. It's going to be up to Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins to be creative and find ways to improve the offense. Fans surely will want to see substantial improvements at the plate, but with limited options to sign players who are more than lateral moves, it will not be easy. Hoyer has been aggressive about getting his guy (Seiya Suzuki, sorta Dansby Swanson) and in some creative deals (Michael Busch). It will be fascinating to see how he operates in the last year of his contract, and whether he can finally lead the Cubs into the playoffs. View full article

Cub fans are an intelligent lot, though the online narratives often take on a life of their own. Some of these ideas are easily debunked or proven correct. Let's review a few of these and see how accurate Cub fans can be. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images 1. The Cubs Offense is Not Clutch Enough Here are the Cubs' totals for the season. For some context, the Cubs are below average on OPS by 32 points and batting average by .004. The home run output is good for 20th in the league per game. Speed did make up for some of the deficits by stealing the seventh-most bases in baseball. This establishes their baseline performance. All stats from Baseball-Reference Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ 2024 Totals 1544 146 5509 4899 667 1175 237 26 153 628 131 27 491 1244 .240 .315 .393 .708 1923 72 66 15 37 18 24 .289 100 99 Clutch Stats Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ RISP 145 1436 1204 499 295 65 8 40 462 54 7 165 311 .245 .336 .412 .748 496 23 18 12 37 18 5 .287 112 10 Leverage Situations Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ High Lvrge 137 1038 887 271 227 43 5 32 252 49 5 109 209 .256 .340 .424 .763 376 27 14 7 21 9 5 .292 116 114 Medium Lvrge 146 2039 1827 207 423 77 6 60 197 48 16 172 455 .232 .306 .379 .684 692 21 26 7 7 5 8 .275 94 91 Low Lvrge 146 2432 2185 189 525 117 15 61 179 34 6 210 580 .240 .313 .391 .705 855 24 26 1 9 4 11 .299 99 100 These two boxes amaze me. There's no meaningful difference in their results based on situation. The Cubs are neither clutch nor not clutch. They clearly have an approach, they clearly stick to that approach, and the results are the same in all situations. The organization has always been process over results; that's why we had to watch Christopher Morel for months, and that's why they won't panic over a bad half season from Isaac Paredes. But to say they are chokers is just not accurate. The Cubs seem to have their approach locked in at all times, in all places, and don't vary from that approach. Craig Counsell was known for that same philosophy in Milwaukee. Jed Hoyer lives his entire life I'm sure under the process over results mantra. They simply don't deviate from their set process. So we cannot draw from this any conclusions about being clutch, or being chokers, or not trying to win. The stats say the Cubs just are what they are statistically, regardless of the situation. They may be better served in the future by a more power-based approach, or by having multiple guys who can mash. The Cubs need to be in less high leverage situations; this type of hitter would help give distance in certain games. But to say this team isn't clutch is disingenuous. They simply are what they are. 2: The Cubs Can't Hit At Home Home And Road Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ Home 736 71 2543 2269 284 508 97 13 69 263 55 11 227 606 .224 .300 .369 .669 838 29 26 6 14 4 11 .273 89 86 Away 808 75 2966 2630 383 667 140 13 84 365 76 16 264 638 .254 .328 .413 .741 1085 43 40 9 23 14 13 .302 109 111 This one is really strange this season. Wrigley Field has been by Statcast park effects the second hardest park to hit in this season. What's really strange is that in 2023 it was the ninth easiest. Something really strange happened with the weather. Now before you get excited about the hitters rebounding, let's look if the Cubs pitching had the same effects: Split W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP SO9 SO/W Home 38 33 .535 3.15 286 71 70 1 0 17 642.0 537 250 225 67 203 1 641 22 4 17 2658 1.153 9.0 3.16 Away 37 38 .493 4.42 304 75 75 0 0 16 648.0 629 357 318 93 234 5 588 24 2 19 2781 1.332 8.2 2.51 Look at that. A full 1.3 runs less per game given at home, a significant discrepancy in WHIP as well. Strikeouts were even moderately bumped up, and walks reduced at home. Something strange happened with the weather at Wrigley this summer, but it's too early to tell if it's a long term trend or if it's just a one summer event. Nobody knows. Weather is weird and getting weirder. One year, in North Carolina, there were four hurricanes. That doesn't mean every year there's been four. It's fickle thing. Another factor that could be or could not be a contributor is the signage around Wrigley. In the most recent Northside Territory podcast, Shadahev Sharma posited that the luxury boxes behind home plate have blocked outgoing breezes. Conversation also speculated about the giant video board affecting wind speed and all of these make sense to the untrained and ignorant eye. Only time can tell if Wrigley will become similar to T-Mobile Park in Seattle. If Wrigley reverts to normal, we cannot count on the pitching staff maintaining this pace. Shota Imanaga, however, with his 18.7 launch angle (12.3 is league average) would be in some trouble if those fly balls left the park. Javier Assad's high wire act would not be as successful in a normal weather season. Even Justin Steele's fly ball rate rose. We can't count on the same production from the pitchers given how much park factors helped them this year. The rotation needs to be addressed. Regardless of park factors, the lineup needs to be addressed. Cody Bellinger is likely to opt out. Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ can't be counted on to improve. If the weather is like this, the power numbers won't increase. It will be important to diversify their offensive profile. 3. The Cubs Don't Want To Win Over 83 Games Come on. They want to win 83 games and think that their plan will work. It's an open book as to if it will. What they have not done is address anything in a long term manner. Left unsaid by the Jed Hoyer hating masses, and he's for sure not perfect, is that there have been zero long term assets that would have been great investments. Dansby Swanson was the long term play and he's rapidly becoming a scapegoat and is now in his 30s. How would Carlos Correa or Xander Boegaerts look instead for more money? Jed Hoyer really has been wise to not invest in several of the long term megadeals that have presented themselves, at least for players realistically attainable. Now this offseason, Cub fans should demand an honest pursuit of Juan Soto to finish the lineup. This alone would raise projections to 90 wins. He's that impactful. Cub fans deserve that next superstar in the middle of the order. If this fails, the projections will be right around 83 wins again. The North Siders then will count on Pete Crow-Armstrong to perform offensively as he has been the second half of the 2024 season. This is the star, then. Cam Smith is coming up and projects in this writer's brain as a second star. Matt Shaw, well, maybe. Kevin Alcantara is another hope. The kids will have to improve to beat that 83 wins. This is the most likely path Hoyer will take. I don't think Hoyer feels any pressure to win more games. Well, he probably does, but much like their offense, Jed follows his process almost to a fault. If he's aligned with ownership, don't be surprised if he's extended in the offseason. View full article

To add injury to the insult of losing two games to the Pirates, Justin Steele landed on the IL with elbow tendinitis. This will have implications for both this year and the future. The Cubs have a big decision to make on him pitching again this year; it'll probably be made for them in the coming weeks. Nevertheless, this is an emerging story for the Cubs and their number one starter. Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images In the past three years, Justin Steele has missed time with back, hamstring (twice), and elbow (twice) injuries. He also faded mightily in the failed playoff run of 2023, with a 4.91 ERA in September. It's time to worry about Steele's long-term viability, as he enters his 30s next summer. Some intelligent writers posted the idea to trade Steele before he breaks completely. This chance has passed, and the Cubs will enter September and next season with uncertainty at the top of the rotation. It will be imperative for the Cubs to address the starting rotation in the offseason. Nathan Eovaldi could fit in nicely as a solid starter for his 25 starts, for example. The Cubs have once again missed the chance to cash in on an asset at peak value. What could transpire for the Cubs going forward? Doomer Option: Tommy John It's the worst-case scenario, and so far, we don't have any indication that it will be needed, but it is a path that Steele has trod already. Sunshine and Lollipops Option: A Quick Return In this idyllic reality, Steele misses 10 days, the inflammation goes down, he re-enters the rotation like nothing happened at all. If you listen to Steele, he's planning on this. You shouldn't ever listen to an athlete talk about their own injury, though--at least not as a lone source. They have no clue. But it is an option that could happen, and that would benefit the Cubs immensely. The Most Likely Scenario: Operation Shutdown Steele stays on the IL, and in this time, the Cubs' current 1.9% chance at the playoffs doesn't improve, thereby negating the need for Steele to risk a setback at all. He doesn't return for the regular season, but the team anticipates him being ready for a normal spring training. Look, Steele has become a fan favorite, and for good reason. It's been rare for the Cubs to turn out a homegrown prospect of such quality. But they need to be careful with their prized lefty. Steele may not be capable of six months of healthy production, and as he enters his 30s with a lengthy injury history, the Cubs need to evaluate every option. Long term, it would be foolish to count on Steele for more than 20-25 starts. He's only topped that number once, with 30 in 2023. In his other seasons, he's toed the rubber 9, 24, and 22 times. The forearm problem that cost him two weeks last summer is closely related to the one now sidelining him; the same issue coming up again does not bode well for his elbow health in the future. Steele can't be counted on as their co-ace again next season. In the offseason, the Cubs need to add starting pitching. Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and Corbin Burnes are the headliners, but there are also numerous others, such as Eovaldi, Blake Snell, or Walker Buehler (might be fun to fix!) who could step in and help. Perhaps the Cubs will roll the dice on Yusei Kikuchi or Shane Bieber to fill out the rotation, or find a willing trade partner. Whatever the plan is, it needs to compensate for Steele missing a month or more of the season. Along with this, they need to truly analyze why their entire rotation has missed time, except Shota Imanaga, not to mention every member of their bullpen. Here's a list of injuries to befall Cubs hurlers this year: Adbert Alzolay: Tommy John surgery Yency Almonte: Shoulder surgery Luke Little: Lat strain Ben Brown: Weird neck issue Hayden Wesneski: Elbow Jameson Taillon: Back Kyle Hendricks: Back Jorge López: Groin (one initial injury, then aggravated it) Julien Merryweather: Shoulder/rib stress fracture Javier Assad: forearm Jordan Wicks: the Dreaded Oblique strain Daniel Palencia: Shoulder, vision (that's why he can't find the plate) Mark Leiter, Jr: Forearm Drew Smyly: Hip And of course, don't forget: Cade Horton, shoulder Something is going wrong with their process, Injuries happen to everyone, but injuries shouldn't happen to everyone. Steele might be the canary in the coal mine, or it could be a small blip. Seasons like this, though, need to force the front office to reevaluate their approach to pitching over a whole season. Health is the next project for the pitch lab entering 2025. Justin Steele's injury is one that comes with no silver lining. If he misses the remainder of the season, add one more item to the list of positions that need to be upgraded. (Even if he does, you probably ought to do so.) View full article

Today we start handing out August awards hardware.. or paper articles if you were to print this out. But you don't have to. You can just just keep reading to see which Cubs pitchers performed well in August. What got into the Cubs in August? Pennant race, anyone? I know it's a tad optimistic, but it is nice to see some good pitching, even some great pitching performances for the Northsiders. Honorable Mentions Nate Pearson has been a surprise addition, but perhaps not shocking for those who know his history. Pearson peaked as a top ten prospect for the Blue Jays before injuries and ineffectiveness led the Jays to offload him before making a decision on whether or not to accept his final two arbitration years. In August, Pearson showed no issues whatsoever. In seven outings, he tallied 12 strikeouts in his 12 innings pithed. His WHIP was stellar at 0.75. Pearson could be one of those 2024 Jed Hoyer trash heap finds that make a huge difference the rest of the way. Hopefully, he can maintain this into next season as his contract surely will be retained. Best case scenario? See Jeff Hoffman this year for the Phillies, similar trajectories and possibly a similar payoff. Javier Assad is not going to go deep into games. He only averages five innings per start. He will not pitch with pinpoint control; his WHIP for August is at 1.30. What he will do is compete at all times and do whatever he can to keep the Cubs in games. He's not an ace; he's a back end starter who you certainly could do worse than. He needs mention here as Cub fans need to appreciate what he is, and not focus on what he isn't. Justin Steele keeps getting mentioned here, and with good reason. 3-0 in August with a 2.03 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 25 innings get you noticed. He may be in consideration for some more top 5 Cy Young votes this year, as he did in 2023. Nationally, he's not treated as a bona fide ace because he came to the majors without a high level pedigree. However, this is a 99 percentile outcome for any prospect. He is simply a great starter. They did it! They developed a home grown pitcher who matches up with anyone. The August Cubs Pitcher Of The Month Porter Hodge is the name to focus on for August this year. In the month, he pitched 12 innings of 1.50 ERA baseball with a 0.92 WHIP. The strikeout rate was obscene; anyone would love to strike out 18 batters for every 12 innings pitched. He notched two saves as well. Hodge developing into a bona fide weapon in the bullpen is the biggest development for the pitching staff this month, and for that reason he gets the glow up here. Hodge came up as a 13th round pick and a starting pitcher. The burly hurler clocks in at 6-4, 230; he fits the part physically. Hodge did not last as a starter, and in 2023 at Tennessee, he finally made the switch to the pen. This year, he road the Des Moines shuffle two times before cementing himself as the 8th inning pitcher of choice for Craig Counsell. The development of Hodge could allow the Cubs to spend intelligently on the bullpen again this offseason (I mean by this going cheap for reclamation projects) because they have this guy as the rock at the end of the bullpen. His August has been eye opening. Wake me up when September ends, Billie Joe. That will tell a more true picture of what the Cubs can expect from Porter next season. View full article

With the rosters expanding by two this month, Jordan Wicks has regained health and his roster position. He’ll make a start on Sunday to try to finish a sweep of the Nationals. Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports Jordan Wicks had not impressed overall in Iowa during his rehab in August. He currently sports a 7.30 ERA and 1.46 WHIP while shaking off the rust of his grade two oblique strain. He gave up ten runs in his first two starts, followed by two scoreless abbreviated ones to prove his health and ramp back up. His final two rehab starts were both four shutout innings. Reports have been that he’s regained velocity, and clearly, the Cubs have invested in him and are ready to let him pitch as they make a push to get the best possible record. Don't expect much length from Wicks today it may be a glorified bullpen game. Don’t expect more than five innings or 75 pitches. Wicks could go a long way towards cementing himself in the rotation plans for 2025 with a strong and healthy September. Fans should watch the former first-round pick eagerly to see if he can pitch effectively and remain healthy. Wicks had a velocity increase early in the season; can he hold up at 95 mph? Or does he need to learn from Justin Steele how to pitch at a slightly lower velocity? These questions will be answered in September and beyond. For now, it’s good to see Wicks ready to go and battle the Nationals. View full article

After early-season struggles, the Cubs' centerfielder is rounding into form. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports The story of August is that the Cubs are in a bit of a hot stretch. Entering the day off on Thursday, August 29, the Cubs have won nine of their previous twelve games, beating up on the Pirates, Marlins, and Tigers. For the month, the team is 17-8. Take away a three-game sweep by the playoff-leading Guardians, and a 17-5 record is exactly what fans should have hoped for this month, given the competition. But what this individual month means for 2024 isn't the most exciting part of this stretch. Pete Crow-Armstrong has done what Cody Bellinger did in 2023: Performed as a star would and carried the offense for an extended stretch. For August, check out this stat line: Month G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ August 24 24 90 79 16 26 4 2 4 14 6 1 8 12 .329 .398 .582 .980 46 1 1 2 0 2 0 .349 189 168 Prorated to 162 games, Crow-Armstrong is on pace for 108 runs and 95 RBI from this month's data. The pace is even more impressive when one factors his position in the eight spot of the lineup. Twenty-seven doubles, 14 triples, and 27 home runs would also be a fantastic season-long result. He still is not walking at an impressive clip, but cutting his strikeouts to a season pace of 81 is great. Forty-one steals are just gravy on this potato of a stat line. For comparison, here are his monthly totals from the rest of the season. All stats are from Baseball-Reference. Month G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ April/March 7 5 19 18 2 5 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 4 .278 .278 .500 .778 9 0 0 1 0 0 0 .308 126 118 May 18 14 50 43 3 10 1 1 0 5 5 0 3 10 .233 .306 .302 .608 13 0 2 1 1 0 0 .294 85 78 June 26 19 75 69 3 10 0 2 0 4 10 0 3 27 .145 .192 .203 .395 14 1 1 2 0 0 0 .238 19 11 July 20 19 69 66 6 13 4 1 2 7 5 0 3 13 .197 .232 .379 .611 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 .216 79 64 This came almost out of nowhere. Ol' Pete was scuffling along, casting doubt on himself, his future, and whether Jed Hoyer should be fired today or tomorrow. Then, boom. August came, and he looked even better than the biggest prospect fan in Cubdom would have projected. Under the hood, hard contact has been a significant driver of his success. For August, he raised his exit velocity to 91.7, which would rank him in the top 35 in baseball for the entire season. He also makes hard contact 48% of the time, and 10% of swings are barrels. This is an improvement from an 88 mph exit velocity, 25% hard contact, and a doubled barrel rate from 5% for the season before August. His contact is the same; he's just doing it more often. And, of course, walking more and striking out less. The trade of Javy Baez for Crow-Armstrong in 2021 already has been a win for the Cubs to avoid the Baez contract, although he probably would have been better had he stayed in a city that adored him. This month, though, has to be eye-opening. This kind of a month is exactly what you would want to see from a top 20 prospect as he adjusts to major league pitching. Factoring his speed, flair, and penchant for the big moment, Cub fans should look to enjoy their new center fielder for at least the next six seasons. In the long term, this will validate Jed Hoyer and his patient strategy of building this team from the ground up. The Cubs would certainly approach this offseason differently had PCA not gone on this run. How will they now approach lineup building in the offseason? There are already numerous reports that the Cubs are out on Juan Soto. Assuming these aren't smokescreens, and assuming the Cubs share the sentiment around baseball and have studied team construction in baseball history, the Cubs are counting on their next big bat to be a homegrown one. Crow-Armstrong has had a massive August; Jed will use this to justify his patience with prospects. Don't look for the team to spend big on the lineup. Jed Hoyer said that near the trade deadline, improvements on offense would have to be made internally. He will bank this offseason on baseball variance balancing out: Dansby Swanson doesn't hit like a shortstop from the 70s again, Nico Hoerner's hand/hamstring issues are resolved, Seiya Suzuki doesn't hurt himself, Isaac Paredes not being Cinderella's stagecoach only to become a pumpkin as his Cubs career begins, and of course the prospects. Pete Crow-Armstrong will be heralded as the linchpin of this offense; we will hear much hype about 2025 debuts for Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, and Kevin Alcantara, not to mention newly drafted Cam Smith. Hoyer will be emboldened by Crow-Armstrong and, to a lesser extent, Miguel Amaya's fine play to continue down this path he has charted. Hopefully, and the above assumes Bellinger is back, the money would be used to add some arms to the front of the rotation and bullpen. Only time will tell what the available funds will be, not to mention the overall budget. We know that in August, Crow-Armstrong was the star Chicago had lacked since 2019. A repeat September would clarify the plans for 2025 and beyond. As the competition heats up again, and the Cubs fancy themselves playoff contenders, Pete will have to lead the way this season and in the next several. View full article

With the Cubs' postseason chances dwindling a little by the day, we'll look forward to 2025 and where the Cubs might need help on offense. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports With the season rapidly winding down, leaving poor Chicagoans to wonder if Caleb Williams lives up to generational hype and if anyone in the league wants Zach LaVine, attention naturally shifts to next season. What can we hope to see from this roster next season on offense? Luckily for us all, FanGraphs houses a projection system that can give us reasonable expectations for next year's Cubs team. A few details: Guys who I believe are over-projected in terms of playing time (Patrick Wisdom isn't getting 368 at-bats, for example) will be left out. Only players who have set projected roles will be featured. Also, this assumes zero trades and that Cody Bellinger opts back in. The North Side Baseball crystal ball is on the fritz. Apologies for being unable to forecast the future. Finally, ZIPS updates daily, so these should be updated to the latest projections. You can find all projections on FanGraphs. Home Runs Isaac Paredes - 27 Michael Busch - 23 Dansby Swanson - 21 Seiya Suzuki - 21 Ian Happ - 20 Cody Bellinger - 18 Pete Crow-Armstrong - 16 This is good and bad news at the same time. The good news is that the Cubs project to have seven guys who could conceivably hit 20 home runs. The bad news is that they don't have a guy with 30; they're counting on consistency, and this team hasn't shown an ability to do that. The middle of the order still projects low power levels next season. Optimism: Cody Bellinger, but that's health projections. He's had 11 injuries over the past four seasons. Maybe, just maybe, he's not injury-prone and just had bad luck. Not everyone runs into a wall to break a rib. Concern: Isaac Paredes was not highly thought of in a fantasy nugget by noted fantasy personality and Rays fan. Contact rate and a ton of traffic on the bases in front of him masked that much of his contact was weak, and RBI was bloated, making his value seem higher than it was. Paredes was a product of his environment, per Collette. Lo and behold, the Cubs environment is not very good, and he's struggling to a .147 batting average on the team. Barring a late-season surge, 27 home runs seem very optimistic. Overview: The lack of power isn't going to fix itself. When you add Nico Hoerner, the team is projected to hit around 162 in the season. Here's a list of teams that hit around or less than one dinger per day: Washington, the Sox, Marlins, Rays, Pirates, Blue Jays, Angels, Tigers, Giants, and shockingly the Cubs this year. Conversely, the top ten teams in homers per game are in playoff contention, except for Oakland. Only the Brewers are similar in terms of the lack of home runs this season. The Cubs need to add power and home run capability to contend next season. wRC+ Seiya Suzuki - 119 Isaac Paredes - 117 Michael Busch - 112 Ian Happ - 107 Dansby Swanson - 102 Cody Bellinger - 100 Nico Hoerner - 95 Pete Crow-Armstrong - 94 This team is not bad. Leaving out the catcher position, eight of their position players project to be league average or better. By definition, that isn't bad. You don't need an Aaron Judge's 223 wRC+ to be a valuable hitter. This entire lineup projects to be just fine. The question then becomes, how do you get that elusive elite production? Maybe Brent Rooker can be had as he gets more pricy. Perhaps a prospect develops into that role (more later on their projections). Looking at this group of projections, the Cubs definitely cannot run this same lineup back and expect better results.= Some other trends are notable and instructive about what the Cubs should do this offseason. No Cub is projected to have an on-base percentage over .349. No Cub is projected to have a slugging percentage topping .470. Finally, according to the FanGraphs offense rating, only four members of the lineup project to have a positive value for next season. In other words, this Cubs lineup is filled with average bats. Average bats lead to average results. Jed Hoyer, building this team, paid a hefty premium for all-around players and undervalued guys who have their primary value on offense. Seiya and Paredes are the two sluggers; no pundit dares call them elite. It's a lineup of complementary players searching for that Reggie Jackson, the straw that stirs the drink, if you will. The Cubs have not had a great lineup this season, and without wholesale changes or a surprise major move, they don't project to improve next season. It's up to the front office to see this and act accordingly. View full article

So long, Heart Attack Héctor. May you be less Nervous in your future Nerises. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports The Héctor Neris era in Chicago has been tidily terminated--in direct contravention of the way he often finished games as the primary closer-by-default for Chicago. Neris was a disappointment in his role, pitching to a 4.09 ERA and a WHIP of 1.52. These numbers seem better than the actual experience of watching High Wire Hector, or Nerve Inducing Neris, or any other use of alliteration to describe the feeling of watching him in a stressful moment. So was this a terrible move by Jed Hoyer? Did his bullpen construction fail him? Neris was a star in his last season in Houston. He totaled a 1.71 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 68 innings pitched. His FIP, however, reflected a possible skill erosion at age 34, at 3.83. Control was not an issue; Neris was a key part in the Astros bullpen. Neris was inked to a $9 million deal for this season, and was expected to fill a key setup role in the bullpen. Unfortunately for the Cubs, Adbert Alzolay (as he has done every year of his career) went down with an injury, and was unable to fill the closer role. Neris filled in and, to his credit, recorded 22 saves. He did blow five of them, and anecdotally, he reminded long-time Cub fans of Dave Smith, Joe Borowski, and Mel Rojas--pitchers who should have been sponsored by antacid companies, given how much money they made for them. It was a bumpy, bumpy ride, and not the fun kind. Now Neris is gone, and there will be some implications. First of all, there is an obvious financial component. This move prevents Neris from reaching a vesting option for next season. If he had made 60 appearances or 45 games finished and finished the season healthy, he would have gained the right to trigger a $9 million option for next season, matching this year's salary. It made no sense for the Cubs to permit that, not out of craven greed, but because Neris simply hasn't earned the right to stay on the roster through the end of the season. He was precisely replacement-level, according to Baseball Prospectus, with 0.0 WARP in his 44 innings of work. Cutting such a player isn't a question of dodging potential future obligations; it's just replacing a player whose performance merits replacement. As far as the on-field product, Craig Counsell's career pattern has been to select a primary closer. Of course, Josh Hader and Devin Williams aren't walking through that door. We will probably see a primary closer emerge for the stretch run. Jorge López already has a converted save in his stats, so he probably will get the first crack at it. Porter Hodge should have a prominent role, too; Counsell can mix and match from there. Gigantic human Jack Neely will be an interesting follow for the rest of the season, as his fastball touches 98 and he has a wipeout slider at 84-88 mph. The bullpen will not suffer short- or long-term damage due to this move. Hoyer has proven adept at building a bullpen on the fly, but he has failed in his past two seasons to build one from the beginning of the season. Mark Leiter Jr., Julian Merryweather, and Adbert Alzolay were nails in 2023; they also had extensive injury histories. Neris had some red flags in his profile. Hoyer didn't do his job well enough in projecting his pitching staff. When you add Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski, Jordan Wicks, Daniel Palencia, and Luke Little injuries, we might have enough data to ask whether the Cubs need to adjust something to keep their young arms healthy. If they can do that, Hoyer's acumen in adding pieces can be used to better effect. To Cub fans, Neris was emblematic of the bullpen's struggles to remain healthy and effective. By all accounts, he was well-liked in the clubhouse. Unfortunately, his high-wire act never gave way to a more stable showing. It wasn't his fault that he was forced into the closer role; that was a reflection on the poor job by the front office. It was a fine move, however, and marks a clear pivot toward the future for a team that needed to let go of the idea that it built itself into a winner last winter. View full article