Why Jed Hoyer's Long End-of-Season Press Conference Offered Little Cause for Optimism

Jed Hoyer spoke on a wide variety of topics Tuesday. What did he really say, though? Here are the key pull-quotes, followed by some thoughts on their implications. A warning, though: the indications he gave don't point toward a huge outlay around the corner.

"I'm excited about next year. I think we're building from a great foundation going forward."

"Do we need a star, a start player [to get us] through those slumps. Hard thing to figure. If I look at the 12 teams in the playoffs, every team in the playoffs has a guy with 5 or more wins [above replacement] this year. Having players outperform expectations is a big part of it. Only 5 of the 14 were projected to have a 5 win season. I think that's what we lacked this year. [Our players] kind of got back to their numbers, maybe a hair above, a hair below. Nobody had that carrying year that Cody [Bellinger] had last year. There's a number of guys who can do that on the roster going forward."

"It may be external, it may well be internal to get that [star] player."

"We have to beat projections; we have to outperform. Having players outperform those projections is how we have those seasons we want to have."

He's absolutely right--about some of that. Here's a list of the National League's top players for playoff teams:

• Francisco Lindor:  7 WAR (Baseball Reference)
• Bryce Harper:   4.8 WAR
• Marcell Ozuna:  4.3 WAR with a 154 WRC+
• Jackson Merrill: 4.4 WAR
• William Contreras 4.9 WAR, Brice Turang 4.7, Jackson Chourio 3.8
• Shohei Ohtani:  9 WAR

Of the top 21 players in the league, with the arbitrary 5-WAR cutoff Hoyer mentioned, 14 did make the playoffs. It's safe to say that you do need someone to perform at that level to get to that magical 90-win level, above which it's essentially impossible to miss the playoffs. The Cubs' leader, according to Baseball Reference, is Dansby Swanson at 4 WAR. While this may cause fans to check back in and reevaluate Swanson's season, it's also disingenuous of Hoyer to act like Swanson--or any other current member of the Cubs--has a track record that compares favorably to those above.

Who has that potential to crack the 5-WAR level? It's the fatal flaw in what Hoyer has constructed. If any Cub on this year's team hit that lofty number, it would be a massive surprise. Just look at the players. Ian Happ had a career season. Very nice player. Unlikely to improve from his 4 WAR this year. Swanson was solid. Decent bat. But let's be honest here. Those guys listed above? All but Lindor carry their value with offense. What do the Cubs need more of? The opportunity cost of that $27 million in annual salary for Swanson is really hurting their flexibility given their self-imposed salary constraints.

Michael Busch looks more like a steady contributor than a breakout star. Two or three WAR guy.  Helpful, but not likely to have a breakout at that level. Isaac Paredes would be thrilled to get back anywhere near his 2023 numbers. He had a 4.3 WAR that season, and that was cut in half this season. Seiya Suzuki is an established veteran, and his value is well-known, but he's not at the elite level. He tops out at a possible 4 WAR, and if he's just a DH, that probability is lowered. He's a very, very good hitter, and is probably the guy Hoyer thinks can get to that level. It's just not ever happened.

Based on Hoyer's comments on the subject, I'm not anticipating Cody Bellinger coming back.  That means another bat that needs replacing.

It's concerning to hear the head man for the Cubs talk about overperforming projections as part of a plan. Planning for overperformance isn't a plan, it's a hope. This is the quote we should have received:

"When you don't have that elite star, the guys you have will underperform at times. What we are trying to do, like Atlanta did this year, is build a team that can sustain some underperformance thanks to elite play somewhere else. We don't want to rely on overperformance; we want our roster to be elite enough that it doesn't matter."

As currently constructed, this roster would rely on more overperformance than anyone could reasonably expect in order to get to true contention. So, what did Hoyer answer when asked about adding a "star" and what that means this offseason? We're back to reality, now.

"I think the goal is to build something sustainable. Craig actually talked about, you know, building 90-win teams. What he really means is [creating] that team [that] will project to do that year after year after year, that's a difficult thing to do. Only three teams were projected for 90 wins going into the season, so to get to a place where we can build our projections up and get to the postseason year after year after year, there's a level of discipline to get there. You don't want to take wild swings and do things that will expose you long-term.

"I think the goal here is to get to a place where the playoffs are an expectation, where we're in a position to sustain success. I think we did that before, I think we got to a place where we made the playoffs six out of seven years. I think in doing that, we did take some chances. I think that led to a little bit of a trough here. I think that just getting back to making good decisions on a long-term basis, drafting and developing well, truly having a healthy organization can lead us to that sustained success where the playoffs are an expectation and not a surprise and not a one-year thing. That's the goal."

It's impossible to read this and think that Jed Hoyer believes that free agency is the way to build a sustainable winning team. So, let's look at some rumored free-agent targets:

• Juan Soto: Forget it.
• Alex Bregman: Paredes cost the Cubs a pretty penny, and Hoyer mentioned his excitement for the incumbent third baseman in 2025. Not happening.
• Pete Alonso: That's a massive swing, and would be reactionary to the lack of power this year. He's also going to want to set the market at first base. This would not be seen as a long-term move that is intelligent. Not happening.
• Anthony Santander: They aren't going to invest the years in him, not with the prospects in Iowa. He's over 30, with an offensive profile that might not age well. Not happening.

And these are bats at the top of the free agent market. They don't fit the stated philosophy.

He later pontificated about the two types of currency, financial flexibility and young players. Not ever handing out a $200-million contract, while it does prevent certain targets from signing, does keep that flexibility. The Cubs do feel as if they are in a great place with young players, and that's what Hoyer has been talking about with breakouts and overperforming. He's staking his job on the youngsters coming up and making that impact.

Peter Crow-Armstrong had a great August, but fell back into old patterns as September hit. His projections will be low, but he does have the potential to reach that 5-WAR level. He reached 2.7 WAR on FanGraphs this year, despite negative offensive value. If he can just post a 100 WRC+ over a full season, that's a 5-win player, albeit one who doesn't buoy the lineup as much as needed.

Matt Shaw and Cam Smith have been elite producers in the minor leagues, as recent first-round picks. Perhaps they can replicate the prospect success of the Theo Epstein era.  

This offseason is not going to see seismic changes in how Jed Hoyer operates. We can expect a couple of pitchers to be signed who are not named Max Fried or Corbin Burnes. Bounce-back guys on pillow contracts, such as Walker Buehler and Shane Bieber, will be likely targets. He's not going to spend on Jack Flaherty or Luis Severino. Hoyer's style is to try to find next season's versions of these guys.  

When asked about the pressure of being in the last year of his contract, Hoyer said that he likes the pressure, he's pleased about what he's done, and Cub fans should feel good about it. There is certainly a case for this. The Cubs' future remains an open book, and there is only one arguably poor long-term deal, in Swanson. The prospect cache is still highly-regarded, if missing a surefire star.

Hoyer has set things up very well in the event that another front office comes in and takes his place. Unfortunately, given his comments and stated philosophy, this looks to be a likely event.  With the Cubs counting on overperformance and unwilling philosophically to add talent of consequence, these quotes could be the death knell of the Hoyer era.