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When Dansby Swanson and the Cubs agreed to a $177-million deal, everyone understood that he would have his peaks and valleys at the plate. The selling point was that he would be an elite defender at a premium position. Gold Glove awards would abound, and people who are smart about baseball would lovingly cite his sparkling defensive metrics. The value would all math out nicely.
Alas: not so fast. Swanson's Defensive Runs Saved rating has cratered, dropping from 17 in 2023 to 5 this year. He led MLB in DRS at shortstop last year. This season, he's 11th, and there are several players who would also pass him up if you prorated their lower innings total out to a full season like Swanson's. What's going on here? Why isn't the elite shortstop at the top of the ranks?
It's the range. Outs Above Average on Baseball Savant gives Swanson a ton of credit for rarely making errors. He's got a great set of hands. He's making all the plays that he can get to. He just doesn't get to as many balls as you would hope, especially while going to the right. He's gotten a step slower.
In 144 games played, Swanson has 495 total chances. This ranks him seventh in the league, but if you go by per-game number of chances, he drops considerably. He's just not getting to balls with the range of Ezequiel Tovar, Masyn Winn, Elly De La Cruz, or Taylor Walls. By this statistic, even Trea Turner has demonstrated more range on ground balls. Swanson does not field as many ground balls as many other players, which is what we should expect. Forty-nine players have played at least 220 innings at short this year. Including Swanson, only 12 are 30 or older. Turner, who is only eight months Swanson's senior, is the oldest regular shortstop in baseball.
We've already demonstrated a huge deduction in DRS. His 5 DRS places him essentially level with Corey Seager, and far below young whizzes like Winn, Tovar, and Zach Neto. Being an above-average shortstop is a good thing, but the sharp downward slope of the trend line here is worrisome.
Given Swanson's age, it's fair to question if this is a long-term issue. He has never been an electric athlete, and any decline in range should be met with alarm. His arm is already below-average. It's been ranked in the 18th percentile of shortstops. He's not making up for a lack of range with a cannon. His lower half has betrayed him several times (multiple heel, knee issues), and injury problems don't ease up after three decades on the planet. They might continue to take him out of the lineup, and they're almost certain to continue eroding his defensive value even when he's out there.
Actuarially speaking, we're also past the prime years for Swanson's bat. He'll turn 31 just as he reports to spring training next February. He's being paid for average performance offensively, to go along with elite defense. With the glovework dropping off, his wRC+ is also at 97, which means he's technically become a below-average hitter. His isolated power has really plummeted, from last year's .172 to this season's .145. They need him to be capable of producing something close to 25 homers per year; he's only managed 16 this season. The best years of almost any long-term deal come at the front end, and the front end of Swanson's deal has been underwhelming.
Swanson has played a lot of games and takes pride in his position. The Cubs also have paid a hefty premium for him to be their long-term shortstop. Given the lack of options coming from the farm or available via free agency, he'll remain at short heading into next season. Hopefully, he'll show up in Arizona looking refreshed and healthy, and it will be a moot point, but should the Cubs have some sort of contingency plan in place in case this decline accelerates?
Looking to the minors, there's no help to be had. Jefferson Rojas has been playing short in High A, but he's a 19-year-old who may need to repeat the level after managing only a .646 OPS. Christian Hernandez is at the same level, and could develop into an option in a few years, but no sooner. The Cubs somehow have a farm system chock-full of second basemen and outfielders. Nico Hoerner's arm also isn't suited to moving back to the left side of the infield.
Brandon Crawford is often cited as a comparison for Swanson, in that he started at short well into his 30s. Offensively, the comparison is apt. Neither made their money as sluggers. However, Crawford's range and arm were both better at their respective peaks, and even so, the Giants stalwart was a below-average defender in four of his final six years at the position.
Jed Hoyer took the risk with Swanson and went against his stated philosophy of not spending big on contracts for many years; he really needs this contract to maintain value going forward. In his quote, Hoyer says a contract like this is only for the "truly elite." Swanson, with his current plate production and range and arm, has not met that lofty standard. The Cubs need to account for this and take action with some sort of plan. Hoyer had better hope Swanson's defensive dip is just that, as opposed to the beginning of an accelerating downward slide. If this continues to be a missed signing and the team doesn't succeed, the Cubs will look to someone else to take the next big contractual risk.
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