Cuzi

So we are willing to say there is enough evidence out there to suggest teams are steering away from 10+ year deals, but not willing to say there's enough evidence out there to suggest that the Cubs wont sign a 10+ year deal? Wild.

Are you really questioning that Ohtani has had two TJS? Bold move.

Here's the thing when it comes to the Cubs, more specifically Hoyer, and decade long deals. It is not that they can't afford them, it's pretty clear that they can since they have been rumored to offer more AAV in a shorter term. It's also not that they haven't been interested in the players that have signed these deals. They were interested in both Seager and Correa, but not at 10+ years. They were interested in Bogarts, but not at 10+ years. They wanted all of those players for around the same amount of years that Swanson signed for. The question to ask is, is there any player that Hoyer does believe is worth 10+ years? Because every player that the market has said was worth 10+ years, Hoyer has said they are worth 6-7. I don't see the kind of man Hoyer has shown to be as a guy that's going to go out there and offer Ohtani a competitive deal, especially after he just had his second TJS two months ago. If there was any player that has been no doubt worth a 10 year deal available since Hoyer has been the final decision maker, it's Juan Soto. If the Cubs choose to avoid that path because they don't want to make that commitment on top of the prospects to get him and choose to go with Alonso because they can probably sign him to a 6 year deal, then we have our answer, which we already kind of have.

Neither one is 10 years.

Then why bring up the Yankees? They have zero.

The Padres have three 10+ year contracts.

He literally had a year that matches his career. He's a good but not great pitcher. The only thing down on the Cubs compared to his norm is innings.

Not surprised at all. When guys like Taillon are out there getting 4/68, it shouldn't be hard for Stroman to get 3-4 years at pretty damn close to that $21M AAV. Why the reports were so adamant Stroman was going to opt in never made sense to me.

Nothing has left until he signs a contract. Acting like a player losing 3-5 WAR/year of his value is not a major wart is laughable.

If he was only a DH, would the talk of him getting $500-600M exist?

So does Morel only count as trade value in a deal for Soto? How is he trade value before but not after?

What does his fame and popularity have to do with anything other than directly making Ricketts more money? Being a pitcher and having surgery on your throwing arm months before FA is a wart. If its a wart for the little guy, its a wart for the bigger guy. The only difference is its going to be more overlooked on the bigger guy.

He did just have surgery on his throwing arm. So he'll be a $40-45M DH year 1 and who knows how he comes back as a pitcher.

How does option 1 retain more trade value while simultaneously requiring more trade value to acquire. That makes absolutely no sense.

I didn't say they havent signed anyone to a comparable contract. I said they havent even entertained the idea of getting within $200M of Soto. There's plenty of guys that have signed within $100M and the Cubs' rumored offer was to get them at 3-4 years less at a higher AAV to reduce the total investment because they weren't willing to even get that close.

That's a long list of useless information. I would imagine the Cubs didnt make any offer to Machado because they had Kris Bryant. I would also imagine they didn't seriously discuss anything with Harper because he signed a no opt out deal at $25M AAV during a time period that he and Bryant were practically begging the Cubs to get involved but they had this little problem named Jason Heyward.

I'm not arguing that Juan Soto is better than any individual player. Can you make a better overall team with Juan Soto who is going to cost more payroll, cost more trade capital, to be the teams DH? You say you have a lot of wiggle room to make additional moves. You have MORE room to make additional moves with Alonso and you are already starting at a baseline better team, given the math that was provided, and you have 1 less need to fill to complete the roster. So common sense comes into play here. If, baseline, you are already better, you have more assets to work with, and less spots to fill, then in which scenario can you fill those spots with higher quality?

You have already made up the difference and then some by keeping Morel. The $10M is a bonus. If this FO has shown anything, it's that they will not sign Juan Soto. Age is not a factor. They haven't even entertained the idea of coming within $200M of what Soto will get. Alonso can ask for whatever he wants but he's not going to get 10 years, he's not going to get $250M, he is going to end up around $160M. That is infinitely more likely to happen with this FO than whatever Juan Soto is about to get. But I'm not even considering either player extending with the Cubs in the equation. I am talking about just the 1 year of 2024. Do you believe the best version of the 2024 Cubs includes Juan Soto? Because I dont.

I think we can throw the hope of Morel playing 3B on the Cubs in the trash by now. If it was going to happen it would have happened this year. Instead, the Cubs chose to work with a player that had never played 3B in his entire pro career and doesn't profile at all for the position and his name was Nick Madrigal. This FO value's defense on the infield above all. Morel has only proven to not be a liability at 2B. Morel is the DH and will moonlight around the diamond sporadically.

Bertz's post also suggests that the player to get is Alonso instead of Soto if you are aiming for 2024. You'd keep Morel because the opportunity cost is going to be much cheaper and 25 + 15 > 35 and you save about $10M to spread to other needs to improve the team for that 1 year. I would have no problem selling out for Soto if I had any faith in the Cubs making that investment worthwhile, instead of a stunt.

No, Jed did not go all in for 2023. He also scrapped his entire off-season plan at the deadline because he was too scared to sell when the Cubs were in a stones throw of first place in a bad division. He didn't believe in this team. That's why he only chose to get Candelario and some mediocre reliever in Cuas. Jed has been running this entire rebuild like a rudderless ship. He doesn't know where he wants to go. He's still signing guys to deals he intends to flip like Stroman and Bellinger. Then he backs out of actually flipping them when he's holding the best pieces on the market in a market that is paying premium prices. He'll say he doesn't want to be in the sweepstakes for top tier FAs and doesn't want to sign long deals and then he turns around and signs Dansby Swanson to a 7 year deal to kick off the Cubs window. Then follow that up by sticking with Patrick Wisdom at 3B, signing Mancini and Barnhart to 2 year deals, and signing Hosmer. My very first post on this board was about how garbage and meaningless the deadline was. But the majority of people on here were so damn excited about getting "the best bat available." A bat that was only the best by choice of the Cubs, because the Cubs were going for it, but not really. The ending to the season couldn't have been a more justifiable ending to the cowardly approach at the deadline. Stroman turned into a turd and got injured. The best bat available was worth 0.2 WAR on the Cubs. And the team choked away a 93% chance to make the playoffs. "How about another joke, Murray..."

The only way I'm trading for 1 year of Soto is if I'm literally going all in on 2024, which would be a complete 180 on anything Hoyer has said he believes in. That would mean re-signing Bellinger. Signing Chapman. Signing an actual closer like Hader. Signing/trading a legit TOR pitcher. That would leave 1B as the only question mark on the roster going into the season, but its time to let Mervis sink or swim and if he sinks you resolve it at the deadline. Nothing Hoyer has done to this point tells me hes capable of going that off the rails. He is not going to go full blown 2022 Texas Rangers. We'll trade for Soto, Stroman will opt in, pick up Hendricks option, maybe sign a reclamation pitcher like Sean Manaea, maybe sign a reliever like Matt Moore, and then we'll be starting to get into uncomfortable waters of starting to spend too much money in one offseason so we'll look at Gio Urshela to play 3B, Michael Taylor to play CF, Mervis and Wisdom will platoon at 1B, and we'll cap it off by signing the token injured pitcher that hasnt pitched in 2 years Drew Pomeranz. We'll sell the horsefeathers out of season tickets because Juan Soto is now the face of the team for 1 year. Everyone is going to be super excited. Meanwhile we've only added maybe a couple of projected wins to an 80 win team.

How improved were the Padres hitters with Soto in the lineup?

Yes, I would trade prospects for Soto. Prospects are the most overrated fan fiction in baseball. You aren't taking anything away from the MLB roster by trading prospects and even the best rated prospects in the minors are on average successful in MLB like 25% of the time and the Cubs aren't a "top 5 system" in baseball because they have a lot of top rated prospects. The Cubs have a higher than average number of good but not great prospects that is making them a "top 5 system." I'm more than ok with using that currency to acquire established no horsefeathers MLB talent. I really wish I could understand the hesitation to trade Alcantara for Alonso. Alcantara has already been on the 40 man roster for 2 years. Do you know what that means? It means he has to be optioned every single year he is not on the 26 man roster. He has 1 option year remaining for 2024. He just recently got promoted to AA. That means before hes even ready to get his shot in the majors, he's probably going to have to be passed through waivers or thrown out on the field and see if it sticks. He also just happens to be the kind of prospect the Cubs have the most of. Alcantara is following a similar path to another once top rated Yankees prospect named Estevan Florial. Florial was once a top 40 prospect in baseball, but he ran out of options before he was ready to play in MLB. Now look at him. He's completely worthless.

Lol. You are so clueless. I'm not against adding players. I'm not against selling players. I have been pounding my fist on PSD to start trading prospects and ADDING to the MLB roster. You act like I've not written on this forum about how I am 100% all in on trading someone like Alcantara for 1 year of Pete Alonso. However, I'm completely against trading established, quality, MLB players with years of control for a 1 year hail marry on a team where that hail marry likely doesnt move the needle. It's completely shortsighted during a time where shortsightedness is the WRONG answer. If Soto is for sure signing an extension post trade, I make that trade 100 times out of 100. If he is not going to sign an extension, then I'm never making that trade with a roster as it is currently constructed. After losing an OFer like Bellinger and trading a utility player like Morel, the only thing you have ADDED to the MLB roster is payroll for 1 year.