Cuzi

If $700M is the number for Soto then there is probably a hefty amount of deferrals in the deal, just like Ohtani. Ohtani got $46M AAV after you account for deferrals. He's put up 4 straight seasons of 8 fWAR and just had 9.1 fWAR as a pure hitter. Juan Soto just had his first ever 7+ season in the most picture perfect left handed ballpark in baseball. Teams are signing guys through age 40 so we are talking probably 14 years on the contract and to get to $700M thats 50 a year. I just dont see how you can value him so much more than Ohtani unless he also has a horsefeathers ton of deferrals.

It appears the 2 teams line up pretty well when you are talking about Nico Hoerner or Isaac Paredes for pitching. Bellinger doesn't line up pretty well. They have Luke Raley and Bellinger is not a cheap player. The only connection between the 2 teams on Bellinger is a MLBTR article saying the teams have discussed Bellinger. Nothing in regards to the Mariners talking about Bellinger even comes close to all the smoke there is about how much they like Nico Hoerner and want him. Bellinger is an after thought.

I wouldn't add Wicks to the deal. They can have Kilian. They can have Birdsell. I'm not adding a valuable MLB piece like Wicks to a deal that is already pretty damn close to break even. Wicks was not good last year, but he is also just 25 years old with 80.2 MLB innings. Justin Steele wasn't a good pitcher at 25 years old either. Wicks was regarded as a better prospect than Steele. I'm not throwing Wicks in a deal as purely an overpay to get a deal done for Luis Castillo. Wicks may not amount to anything. He may be a complete bust. But the Cubs have 2 more years of pre arb and all 3 minor league options to figure that out. There's no rush to just throw him away.

I'm down with that. The issue I have is that most of the trades people talk about for him around here dont seem like a legit possibility. It does not make sense to me for the Mariners to take on Bellinger. Yes, he plays 1B and they can use him there to upgrade the defense over Raley and use Raley as the guy who bounces around the OF and gives Bellinger a breather every so often, but the problem is the dollars. The Mariners are working with 1/3 of the money we are talking about the Cubs have. If the Mariners would do Castillo + Garver for Bellinger then I would do it. That probably equals out in value. But do I think the Mariners are interested in losing Castillo to go from Raley to Bellinger? Absolutely not. They wash on money, get out from at least 1-2 years of Castillo's money, but have to replace Castillo and find a new backup catcher with the same lack of funding you had to start with, oh and by the way you still have to find a 2B and 3B and BP. It's probably why the rumor around the Cubs and Mariners discussing Cody Bellinger hasn't been as hyped out of Mariners camp as the rumor around Nico Hoerner. Hoerner gives them money savings and the best player in deal by a pretty decent margin. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Bellinger discussion lasted like 10 minutes of brain storming before it was scrapped. If I was them and I was told Bellinger has to be involved then I would just keep Castillo for the year and then trade him next year when his NTC is gone and he has no power at the table.

Kind of hope Buehler is gone before the Cubs are ready to seriously consider it. I figured the Cubs would be in on one legit starter they could slot in ahead of Taillon and then one injury upside pick. I feel like they already made that injury upside pick with Boyd. We dont need another.

I just dont see the Mariners taking on Bellinger. They've already got Luke Raley playing the Bellinger role. Why would they take on Bellingers contract while giving up a decent pitcher that would need to be replaced? I can't imagine they think Emerson Hancock is ready to take on that role. To me it's a simple Hoerner for Castillo + Ford deal. Maybe the Mariners want a AAA pitcher like a Birdsell in the deal to potentially throw out in the rotation as the #5, which... fine. But given that pitchers performing as well as Castillo are getting roughly what Castillo is owed, means he's pretty much a wash value wise. So really its Hoerner for Ford with the Cubs taking on Castillo to free up some salary for them, which I can see them wanting at least something for Castillo besides salary relief, much like the Cubs want something for Bellinger besides strictly salary relief.

The post that name drops Gilbert and Kirby has nothing to do with your post regarding what Levine said, which was essentially nothing. It's impossible to have a conversation with you because you can't even follow your own stuff.

There's a difference between a somewhat reputable person saying that Cubs have actually had discussions with the White Sox on Garrett Crochet specifically and some random as piggyback article saying the Cubs have discussed Nico Hoerner going to the Mariners and then "one of their starters coming back in return." Proceeding to name drop all of their starters after that statement isnt a rumor. But if you think Kirby or Gilbert for a Nico Hoerner package is a legit possibility, then enjoy your reality I guess.

At this point, I have to believe the thing that will hold up the deal is Castillo not waiving his NTC. That's the only name that makes sense from the Mariners stand point. They are reportedly working with $16M in space right now. Trading Miller or Woo in pre-arb to take on an extra $11M doesn't seem like the wisest move when you'll have to turn around and replace them along with finding a 3B with $5M remaining. Even if the Cubs took on Mitch Garver to offset the money, you still have to replace Miller or Woo and a 3B with the same $16M to spend. They've got Hoerner now, but I'm not sure how much better that makes them. Might be net 0.

Nothing in that article is a rumor. Saying Gilbert or Kirby immediately makes the Cubs better is a "no horsefeathers, Sherlock" statement. That doesn't mean those names have been discussed.

Considering the White Sox are even rumored to be in the deal, it's a pretty safe assumption. However, it's hard enough to come to terms in a 2 team deal, it's that much harder to match up on a 3 team deal, so if any thing does happen it will probably not include the White Sox.

Yates is one of the top available RP on the market. Not sure how that is bargain hunting. They are simply using his age to limit the contract years. If the Cubs were bargain hunting the names would be something like Hoby Milner and Danny Coulombe.

That doesn't pass the smell test. Suzuki is the best hitter on the team. You dont trade your best hitter on a value contract because you believe you can do better with that money.

Hernandez was top 100 on 2 lists in 2022, BA and Pipeline.

Well, you see, the Mariners dont have this guy named Crochet on their roster. So if the Cubs prefer Crochet and are looking to have Nico Hoerner be a good chunk of the trade, which the White Sox would have no interest in, then including the White Sox and Mariners in the deal would be the way to accomplish that with the Mariners sending Hoerners value in prospects to the White Sox. So the Cubs get the pitcher they prefer while retaining more prospects in their system for other trades/promotion. The Mariners get the 2B/SS they want and keep their current rotation intact. And the White Sox get the prospect package they want.

I would be willing to match any bet that the industry does not value Nico Hoerner and Garrett Crochet at similar values.

That's 2 top 70 prospects for Hoerner. I would comfortably say that is dramatically off.

Doesn't make sense from the Mariners POV unless they are getting something with Hoerner. Hoerner isn't worth Young and Felnin.

Did any report on those specific names? No. Was it reported the Cubs were looking for ways to improve those positions? Yes.

Hard pill to swallow knowing that the team was focused 110% on TOR pitching and signing Boyd has satisfied the palette in a way. What exactly are we trying to improve here?

So you think teams believe years of control is less valuable? That flies in the face of everything we know about what teams value.

Because of how much control he has and what kind of potential he has. You think teams are out there devaluing their assets because someone might have a pitching injury in the future? Every pitcher in the game would get devalued.

Ford doesn't have questions about his ability to stay at catcher. Ballesteros is closer to a DH prospect than a catching prospect.

It would most certainly be someone in the top 10. Bryan Woo has 5 more years of control with 2 years of pre-arb. Woo concerns me when even Mariners insiders bring up the concerns over his arm health. I haven't read much into that but that's been a big thing with Woo since he was still in the minors. He had TJS in 2021 and he's recently missed starts due to forearm discomfort so the Mariners limited his innings.