Brandon Glick

The Japanese phenom will officially be posted some time this offseason. It may feel inevitable that he’ll be wearing Dodger Blue come 2025, but maybe Cubs fans shouldn’t lose hope just yet. Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images It was just last year that Yoshinobu Yamamoto left Nippon Professional Baseball and became the most coveted free agent in the sport. He was the most-hyped Japanese import since Shohei Ohtani, who had made the trek to MLB seven years ago. Notably, Yamamoto signed for 12 years and $325 million as a true free agent, while Ohtani was made available via the international amateur posting system and had to settle for a minor-league contract with the Los Angeles Angels. Now, the latest Japanese superstar is coming to America, and he has elected to follow in Ohtani's footsteps. Per his current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, Roki Sasaki will be posted in the coming months (or, more likely, in the next handful of weeks). Sasaki first became a household name in the States while dominating the 2023 World Baseball Classic, at 21 years old. He struck out 11 hitters in just 7 2/3 innings, forming an unstoppable triumvirate of aces with Yamamoto and Ohtani that would pave the way to Japan's third WBC title. In total, his Nippon Professional Baseball résumé reads like a video game stat line: 29-15 record, 2.10 ERA, 505 strikeouts, 88 walks, all in 394 2/3 innings in 64 starts over four seasons. However, because no player is perfect, there are injury concerns with Sasaki, including a torn oblique and lingering right arm soreness that cost him a number of starts in 2024. His career high in innings is 129 1/3 (set back in 2022), and he had just 111 this year, across 18 starts. Nevertheless, he’s going to garner the attention of every franchise in MLB, thanks to his combination of dominance on the mound and the cheapness of his salary. What's fascinating about the Marines' decision to post Sasaki now is the financial ramifications of doing so. Because he's not yet 25 years old, the Japanese star can only sign a minimal deal this offseason. Depending on when he's posted, Sasaki will be eligible for a signing bonus maxing out at roughly $5-$7 million, with smaller-market teams having a larger pool of international bonus money available to them. Had Sasaki and the Marines waited until 2026 to access the posting system, the pitcher could have received a contract in excess of $400 million, with the Marines reaping the rewards of the associated 20% posting fee. Just last year, the Orix Blue Wave were given more than $50 million as part of the Yamamoto signing. Sasaki badly wanted to make the trip Stateside, though, and his contract compelled the team to allow that. The heavy assumption around the game right now is that Sasaki will join Ohtani and Yamamoto as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Those two combined to sign contracts exceeding $1 billion with L.A. last offseason, and it isn't hard to imagine Sasaki wanting to form the greatest international triumvirate in the sport's long history. It should be expected that Sasaki will end up in L.A. The West Coast is often favored by Japanese players, given its relative proximity to their home nation, and the Dodgers' status as baseball's best team should be appealing to a player who has yet to win a Pacific League pennant with the Marines. However, there's one team located in the middle of the country that should be a sneaky suitor for the Japanese phenom. The Chicago Cubs have made tremendous strides in turning their brand into an international one, and they are one of just five major league teams that has employed 10 or more Japanese players. Ever since signing Kosuke Fukodome back in 2007, the Cubs' pipeline of notable Japanese players is strong: So Taguchi, Koji Uehara, Hisanori Takashi, Munenori Kawaski, Yu Darvish, Kyuji Fujikawa, Tsuyoshi Wada, Seiya Suzuki, and Shota Imanaga. Those latter two players are arguably the Cubs' best hitter and pitcher right now, and they'll surely make a sales pitch to Sasaki, as Ohtani and Yamamoto are doing for the Dodgers. They're also exiting (we hope) their latest rebuild, posting consecutive 83-79 seasons and loaded with one of the best farm systems in the sport. For what it's worth, the Cubs also have more than $1 million more in extra international signing bonus room than the Dodgers do. It might not mean a lot to someone who is already artificially limiting how much he can earn, but Sasaki will be demanding a majority of any team's bonus pool. Having more to spend means the Cubs can give Sasaki more and have a little left over to spend on another player. Both the Dodgers and Cubs have a need in the rotation for another surefire starter, and (assuming Ohtani is fully healthy in 2025), Sasaki could choose to form a triumvirate in L.A. or a 1-2 combo in the Windy City with Imanaga. Plus, the Cubs could offer Sasaki a plausible lane to developing into the staff ace, assuming he delivers on his huge potential. Unlike the race for Juan Soto, money won’t be the deciding factor for Sasaki. The Cubs have no excuse to not go full bore in their pursuit of the “The Monster of the Reiwa Era.” It isn't everyday a team can land a generational ace for the same cost as Hunter Renfroe's player option. There are a lot of paths the Wrigley Field inhabitants can take towards having a successful offseason, though none are as straightforward as landing Sasaki. View full article

Article coming soon. C: Miguel Amaya ($0.80M) 1B: Michael Busch ($0.80M) 2B: Nico Horner ($11.50M) 3B: Willy Adames ($26.60M) SS: Dansby Swanson ($28.00M) LF: Ian Happ ($21.00M) CF: Pete Crow-Armstrong ($0.80M) RF: Seiya Suzuki ($19.00M) DH: Cody Bellinger ($27.50M) 4th OF: Mike Tauchman ($2.90M) Utility: Isaac Paredes ($6.90M) Utility: Matt Shaw ($0.80M) Backup C: Kyle Higashioka ($7.50M) SP1: Shota Imanaga ($13.50M) SP2: Justin Steele ($6.40M) SP3: Max Fried ($26.0M) SP4: Javier Assad ($0.80M) SP5: Jordan Wicks ($0.80M) RP: Daniel Palencia ($0.80M) RP: Julian Merryweather ($1.30M) RP: Tyson Miller ($0.80M) RP: Porter Hodge ($0.80M) RP: Keegan Thompson ($1.00M) RP: Hayden Wesneski ($0.80M) RP: Ben Brown ($0.80M) RP: Luke Little ($0.80M) Payroll is 5.14% under budget

The Braves ace has a long history of elite pitching sandwiched between a few injury-plagued seasons. Would he make sense atop the Cubs' rotation? View full video

The World Series-winning outfielder may leave the Dodgers in free agency. Do the Cubs make sense as a fit, given their need for a right-handed power bat? View full video

Kosuke Fukodome was a star for the Chunichi Dragons of the Nippon Professional Baseball League (NPB) after being drafted by them in the first round of the 1998 NPB draft. He helped lead them to a championship in his rookie season and famously stopped another Japanese baseball icon, Hideki Matsui, from winning the league Triple Crown in 2002 by winning the batting title with a .343 average. Eventually, he would go on to win the Central League MVP award in 2006, after he hit .351 with 31 home runs and 104 RBIs. After his star turn in the NPB, Fukodome became a free agent after the 2007 season, and he signed with the Cubs on December 11 of that same year. The Cubs gave him a four-year, $48 million contract to be their primary right fielder, as he was set to replace Jacque Jones (traded to Detroit) and Cliff Floyd (contract option declined). Fukodome told reporters at the time that he chose the Cubs specifically because he wanted to be remembered as the first Japanese-born player to play for the historic franchise. Kosuke would make his MLB debut on March 31, 2008 against the Brewers. His debut was a choice one: he went three-for-three that featured a double on the first pitch he saw, and of course he hit a legendary game-tying, three-run homer off Eric Gagné (the only relief pitcher of the last 30 years to win a Cy Young award) in the bottom of the ninth. In what is perhaps the single-most niche trivia answer of all time, Kosuke Fukodome is the only batter to ever hit a home run on opening day off of a relief pitcher who had previously won a Cy Young award. Fukodome earned an all-star selection for his first-half efforts, and would eventually go on to finish sixth in the rookie of the year balloting. However, much like the modern Cubs' Japanese-born star, Seiya Suzuki, Fukodome had a hot start to his debut season that fizzled out as the year wore on. He batted .327 in April of 2008, and then each subsequent month had a lower batting average than the last, culminating in a ghastly .178 batting average in September of his rookie season (he was also helpless against the Dodgers in the NLDS that year, going just one-for-ten with four strikeouts at the plate). Though he never quite lived up to the promise that first month showed, he was a valuable part of the roster in the years that followed. In his sophomore season, Kosuke moved to center field after the Cubs traded for Milton Bradley [in hindsight: yikes], and eventually usurped Alfonso Soriano for the leadoff gig in the batting order. Despite putting up a rather mediocre 4.7 WAR in four seasons with the Cubs, he was a fan favorite for his energy and love of the game, and his jersey was actually the best selling on the Cubs for multiple months during the 2010 season. Fukodome's tenure with the franchise ended when they traded him to the now-Cleveland Guardians at the 2011 trade deadline, receiving outfield prospect Abner Abreu and pitching prospect Carlton Smith in return. He would go on to finish his stateside career with the White Sox (on a major-league deal) and Yankees (minor-league deal) in 2012. He returned to the NPB and played for the Hanshin Tigers (where he had a late-career resurgence), before ultimately ending his career with two more years with his original team, the Dragons. Fukodome retired on September 23, 2022 at the age of 45. In a slightly-more interesting trivia fact, he was the final active player in the NPB who had played at least one game in the 1990s. Of course, Fukodome's impact on the Cubs stretches far, far beyond whatever on-field value he provided the team. He paved the way for many more Japanese stars to follow, especially in relation to the Cubs. He helped the team make pitches to both Yu Darvish and Suzuki, and though it's unclear if he's doing the same in the Cubs' pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, his comfortability with and love of Chicago and Cubs fans have made the team a premier destination for NPB stars. It may be a rudimentary assessment of things (someone was going to the be the first Japanese player on the Cubs), but without Fukodome, there’s no telling if the Cubs would have ever had So Taguchi, Koji Uehara, Hisanori Takashi, Munenori Kawaski, Darvish, Kyuji Fujikawa, Tsuyoshi Wada, or Suzuki. That pipeline, even more than his time with the team, is Kosuke Fukodome’s Cubs legacy. View full player

The Cubs signed Carlos Zambrano out of Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, on July 12, 1997. By his third year in pro ball, he was a reliever at Triple-A Iowa, leading to his highest prospect ranking of 68 by Baseball America. Zambrano debuted in August of 2001 and would become a fixture in the Cubs’ rotation for the next decade. The pitcher affectionately referred to as “Big Z,” threw 209+ innings in five consecutive seasons from 2003-2007, combining workhorse stamina with occasionally elite results. He led the league in walks allowed in 2006 and 2007 (not to mention when he led the league in hit-by-pitch with 20 in 2004). Still, he was also uniquely gifted at keeping the ball in the ballpark, only allowing more than one home run per nine innings once in his Cubs tenure (his final season with the team). Zambrano earned All-Star selections in 2004, 2006, and 2008, which was a reflection of his pitching prowess. However, Zambrano was also known as a legitimate threat at the plate, with three seasons of a .300+ batting average. He also had three years of leading all pitchers in home runs hit, each of which coincided with his three Silver Slugger awards. The Cubs re-signed Zambrano to a five-year, $91.5 million extension in August of 2007, still the most lucrative in-house extension the Cubs have ever handed out. Though Zambrano’s best days were behind him at this point, he was still the ace of a team that won the NL Central in 2008 with 97 wins and was the number one seed in the National League that season. “El Toro” was a consistently good pitcher through some important years in Cubs history, but Cubs fans loved him for his temperament and emotions on the mound. He had several famous outbursts pointed at umpires, opponents, and teammates alike, as his passion for baseball was plain to see. From home runs to postseason starts, Zambrano had several memorable highlights with the Cubs. However, his no-hitter on September 14, 2008, against the Houston Astros permeates fans’ memories to this day. The circumstances surrounding that game were wild enough - Hurricane Ike had forced the Cubs and Astros to play at Miller Park (making it the only no-hitter in MLB history to be pitched at a neutral site) - though the historical context was just as incredible. It was the first no-hitter for the Cubs since Milt Pappas’ near-perfect game in 1972 against the Padres, ending the second-longest drought between no-hitters in franchise history. Zambrano’s Cubs tenure officially ended when the Cubs traded him to the Miami Marlins on January 5, 2012, in exchange for Chris Volstad. However, his foot was already out the door after being placed on the “disqualified players list” in August of the previous season following one of his patented emotional outbursts. That season with the Marlins was his final year in the majors, though he attempted failed comebacks in 2013 (with the Phillies) and 2018 (in independent ball). One of the few successfully developed pitching prospects the franchise has had in recent decades, Big Z never quite reached the stratospheric heights some believed he was capable of. However, his big personality at the plate and on the mound endeared him to a generation of Cubs fans, hence his popularity today. View full player

The outfielder will likely be moved to DH with the news of Cody Bellinger’s return, making him a prime trade candidate if the Cubs want to seek upgrades in the lineup. Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images Seiya Suzuki hasn’t been a disappointment since signing a five-year, $85 million deal with the Cubs in March 2022, with an OPS that has climbed every year he’s been in the majors and topped out at .848 in 2024. Outside of a strikeout rate that climbed to 27.4% this past season, Suzuki has improved nearly every part of his game since first debuting stateside. Case in point: his bWAR in 2024 was a career-high 3.5. That said, Suzuki hasn’t evolved into a true middle-of-the-order threat. He hit 21 home runs this past season over 132 games, which marked a new high point for him. Assuming he does move to designated hitter with Cody Bellinger taking over in right field, it will put much more stress on his bat to live up to his billing. Add in his $17 million AAV over the next two years, and you’ve got a player with obvious value but may not be a perfect fit for this iteration of the Cubs. The Case For Trading Seiya Suzuki The Cubs have one glaring, obvious need in the lineup at non-catcher spots: power. In 2024, they finished tied for 20th (with the Kansas City Royals) in home runs, with 170 as a team. That was only seven behind the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers but a whopping 60+ behind the two World Series participants (the Dodgers finished third with 233 home runs, while the Yankees finished first with 237). Ian Happ led the Cubs with 25 home runs, tied for the 24th-lowest team-leading total in the majors. Suzuki and Michael Busch were tied for second on the team. No one else on the Cubs hit even 20 home runs last year, with Bellinger and Christopher Morel, who was traded at the deadline, coming in at third with 18. Suzuki is an ideal fit to bat second or fifth as a high-average run producer on a team with established power threats in the middle of the lineup. On the Cubs, he’s being asked to do too much. With just two years and $34 million remaining on his original deal, the Japanese outfielder could be an ideal fit on several contenders' rosters without breaking the bank. In return, the Cubs could free up some valuable payroll space and the DH spot in the lineup, all while receiving major league-ready talent in return, either in the form of controllable arms or potentially at catcher. Assuming the team can’t trade Bellinger for anything worthwhile, and assuming they don’t want to trade Ian Happ, Suzuki feels like the odd man out in the Cubs’ outfield rotation. Of course, trading away a surefire, above-average bat like Suzuki’s isn’t the best business practice for a team needing more offense. Likewise, the team may feel more incentive to keep him if it wants to remain a shining beacon for Japanese players, including the recently-posted Roki Sasaki. Nevertheless, comparable trades from the past show the Cubs can extract some value to help the team in 2025 if they deal Suzuki. Back in 2021, at the trade deadline, the Texas Rangers dealt All-Star outfielder Joey Gallo to the New York Yankees for four prospects: shortstop Josh Smith (Yankees No. 14 prospect on MLB.com), 2B Ezequiel Duran (No. 15), second baseman/outfielder Trevor Hauver (No. 23), and right-handed pitcher Glen Otto (No. 28). Gallo was having the best season of his career at the time of the deal, with 25 home runs and Gold Glove-caliber defense in the season’s first half, though he never had the consistency that Suzuki does (as evidenced by his complete collapse in NY after the trade). Gallo had 1.5 seasons of control via arbitration at the time of the deal. Earlier that year, the Red Sox swapped sterling young outfielder Andrew Benintendi for two prospects (OF Franchy Cordero and right-hander Josh Winckowski) and three players to be named later. Benintendi was just 26 years old at the time of the deal and peaking in talent, eventually winning a Gold Glove and earning an All-Star appearance in Kansas City. Benintendi had two years of team control left at the time of the deal. Perhaps the deal that resonates the most around these parts is the Christian Yelich swap back in 2018, where the Brewers netted the star outfielder in exchange for baseball's then-No. 13 prospect Lewis Brinson, infielder Isan Díaz, outfielder Monte Harrison and right-hander Jordan Yamamoto. Yelich had four years left on the original seven-year, $49.5 million contract he signed with the Marlins. He was 26 at the time of the trade. Thus, the Cubs can expect some solid prospect depth in return for Suzuki, but he’s older and more expensive than any of the three players aforementioned. A top-100 prospect and perhaps a couple of low-level fliers seem like a reasonable asking price. Potential Trade Partners The Boston Red Sox desperately need an outfielder to pair with breakout star Jarren Duran, especially if they trade Masataka Yoshida or Wilyer Abreu for badly needed pitching help. They have a loaded farm system, though most of their top prospects are position players, which could dissuade the Cubs from engaging. Perhaps controllable catcher Connor Wong (.758 OPS in 2024) could make for a solid fit next to Miguel Amaya. The Chicago White Sox badly need offensive help after finishing dead last in runs scored by almost 100 last season. Suzuki is older and more expensive than the kinds of players they should be targeting in a rebuild, though he’d make a fine short-term replacement for Luis Robert Jr. if Chicago’s other team cashes in on their best trade chip not named Garrett Crochet. The Kansas City Royals finally broke through in 2024 after years of rebuilding, though mainly on the back of elite starting pitching. MJ Melendez was probably their best outfielder this past season, and he finished with an OPS of .673. For the price of catcher Freddy Fermin and a high-upside, well-regarded pitching prospect, Suzuki would look mighty fine penciled in behind superstar Bobby Witt Jr. every day. The New York Yankees might need a replacement for Juan Soto soon, which, admittedly, Suzuki is not. However, he’s a much better fielder than Soto and would find a comfortable home hitting beside Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe in the Bronx Bombers’ lineup. The Cubs and Yankees have done a lot of business in recent years, so Chicago surely has a few prospects that it likes from the Yanks’ system. Other teams have serious outfield needs, and the Cubs may find a solution to their catching woes elsewhere. However, Suzuki would draw the interest of many organizations around the league, regardless of their stage of contention. Conclusion The Cubs shouldn’t want to trade Suzuki. He’s an above-average hitter capable of playing average defense in the corners of the outfield. For $34 million over the next two seasons, that’s a valuable player to have around on a team that claims it wants to contend again. However, with Bellinger, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Happ all locked in for 2025, Suzuki has no defensive home on the Cubs. Even if he takes over daily designated hitter duties, his bat may not have the power the Cubs are seeking in the middle of the lineup. Plus, with prospects like Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara banging on the door of the majors, the outfield rotation is about to become much more crowded in short order. Suppose they can fill a need with a controllable player or diversify their prospect portfolio in the upper levels of the minor leagues by trading Suzuki. In that case, that’s a trigger Jed Hoyer will have to pull. View full article

Technically speaking, some lists, like this one from Fangraphs, dispute Starlin Castro’s ranking as the best prospect in the Cubs system at the time, though most prospect gurus agreed the teenage shortstop was the best they had (side note: take a look at the rest of that list. It’s depressing… and an important reminder that even a system’s best prospects might not work out). Castro had a ton of helium following two seasons in the minor leagues where he did nothing but hit, and on May 7th, 2010, Castro was called up directly from Double-A Tennessee to make his Major League debut. Speaking of his debut: holy crap, what a debut it was! The first player born in the 1990s to play in an MLB game [feel old yet?], Castro drove in a record six runs against the Cincinnati Reds, homering in his first at-bat off of Homer Bailey. Castro would go on to have a fine rookie season, finishing with a .300/.347/.408 slash line and a fifth-place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting. The debut was impressive from a mere 20-year-old, especially considering the struggles of the rest of the lineup in a down year for the Cubs. He kept it going from there, too, leading the National League in hits with 207 and earning the first of four All-Star appearances in his career (three with the Cubs, one with the Yankees). Castro was something of an ironman, a stat-sheet stuffer in his time with the Cubs, leading the National League in at-bats in three consecutive seasons (2011, 2012, 2013), playing all 162 games in both 2012 and 2019 (with Miami), and also posting double-digit stolen bases in each of his first three seasons in the majors (though he led the NL in caught stealing attempts in 2012). He was a ubiquitous presence on the Cubs during Theo Epstein’s rebuild, finally seeing his commitment to the team yield some success as he manned second base on the way to the 2015 NLCS. During his tenure on the team, the fanbase was split on Castro. Though he was an annual .300 batting average threat, his lack of plate discipline and fielding troubles (20-plus errors in each of his first four seasons) sometimes made his impact feel empty. He was also questioned for his focus during games, though in hindsight, those platitudes were more reactionary than grounded in empirical fact. For every down moment, there were several highlights that Castro would produce. Castro’s Cubs career ended once Epstein’s rebuild began to bear fruit, as he was traded away on December 8th, 2015, to the Yankees for Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan. Of course, fans knew at the time the move was really to free up some cash and a roster spot for Ben Zobrist, a favorite of manager Joe Maddon’s and long an apple of the front office’s eye. From there, Castro would finish his career with the Yankees, Marlins, and Nationals, leaving Major League Baseball after some personal troubles and serious allegations were levied against him. Though it was an unceremonious and troubled curtain call to a once-promising career, Castro delivered on the hype he had as a prospect. He ranks in the top 50 all-time with 1615 hits before turning 30, 991 of which were accrued with the Cubs. Starlin Castro may have been the face of the Cubs during some of the franchise’s most prolific losing seasons, but he was always there. Odds are, if you went to a ballgame at Wrigley between 2010 and 2015, Castro was starting in the middle infield for the Cubs. Though he wasn’t a part of the team that did win it all in 2016, his chapter in Cubs history will be remembered fondly. View full player

Primed for a contract in excess of half a billion dollars, the outfielder is about to strike it rich. Will the big-market Chicago Cubs even bother playing in the deep end of the free agency pool? Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-Imagn Images One year after the most famous free agency saga of all time, Juan Soto is heading into the land of unclaimed superstars expecting to incite a bidding war of his own. Now, Soto isn't exactly the player that Shohei Ohtani is. He's an all-time great hitter who marries power with patience in a way the sport hasn't really seen since the prime days of Barry Bonds, but he lacks the extra dimensions of major defensive or baserunning value. Ohtani is a two-way threat who dwarfs anything baseball has ever seen, having garnered two MVPs and a top-five finish in Cy Young voting, all before hitting free agency. It became clear that Ohtani would break the $500 million threshold early on in his free agency endeavor, with reports suggesting he could even break the $600 million barrier. His status as the game's most important free agent ever grew so loud that there were fans speculating over the name of his dog. And who can forget when it was falsely reported that he was on a flight to Toronto, supposedly to discuss a contract with the Blue Jays? As good a player as Soto is, he isn't going to cause the stir that Ohtani did. His career OPS of .953 is comically high, but he can't do that while also firing off 150 innings of 3.00 ERA ball. Soto is the perfect hitter; the ideal version of the modern offensive player. Ohtani is a singularity that defies what we know about baseball. All that being said, Soto is still going to get a monster contract in free agency this winter. Recent reports suggest he could push for as much as $600 million, which is the sort of figure Ohtani was supposedly dabbling in before securing a (heavily-deferred) $700 million payday. It isn't outrageous to think that a 26-year-old who's been 60% better than the average hitter for his career (160 OPS+) could push for that kind of money, especially when considering the teams who'll be bidding for his services over the next decade or more. His edge on Ohtani is that youth; he's three years younger than Ohtani was when he attained free agency. The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, fresh off doing battle in the World Series, will be serious players for Soto. As the incumbent, the Yankees should be looked at as the favorites, especially since Soto knows signing with them means a decade or more of hitting in front of Aaron Judge and taking aim at the short right-field porch in Yankee Stadium. The Dodgers, meanwhile, will be involved with every superstar free agent that hits the market in perpetuity. They spent more than $1 billion on Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto alone last offseason, and their pockets run as deep as anyone’s. The third team presumed to be in the race is the New York Mets. Perhaps the only team with more money to spend than the 2024 World Series participants, the Mets have been a spending juggernaut under current owner Steve Cohen. They made a surprising run to the NLCS this year, and they now have the chance to pair Soto with Francisco Lindor for the next decade. Rest assured that if Soto doesn’t pick the Mets, it won’t be because they were outbid for his services. So, where does that leave the Cubs in this equation? They’re the fourth-most valuable franchise in the sport, worth at least $1.2 billion more than the Mets. Their 2023 revenue of $506 million ranked behind only the Dodgers and Yankees. And the Ricketts family, helmed by Joe and Tom, has a net worth of $4 billion. By all accounts, they have the resources to enter the bidding war for Soto. Unfortunately, any Cubs fan knows the reality of the situation: the team probably isn’t going to be a serious competitor for the best non-Ohtani free agent in years, and possibly ever. The largest contracts in the franchise’s history are Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184 million deal (which he signed in free agency when he was 26) and Dansby Swanson’s seven-year, $177 million pact. No player on the team has ever had an AAV higher than Jon Lester’s $25.8 million (for a long-term deal) or Cody Bellinger’s $26.7 million (for a short-term deal). That means the Cubs haven’t gone to a place that small-market teams like the Brewers and Diamondbacks have: a $200-million contract. Soto, of course, is going to blow that figure out of the water. He’ll probably triple it, and he’ll be worth it if he stays healthy. Seiya Suzuki and Bellinger are good players, and staples on the current iteration of the Cubs, but trading one or both to free up right field and payroll space for Soto would be a no-brainer. Alas, expecting the Cubs to dip their toes in free agent water that deep is a fool’s errand. So, as the fireworks unfold and rumors fly, don’t expect the Cubs to elicit more than a perfunctory mention from the national pundits as a suitor for Soto. Agent Scott Boras will keep tossing their name out in the discussion as a means to drive up the bidding, but don’t get your hopes up. The best hitter in baseball is now a free agent, and the Chicago Cubs are going to willingly remove themselves from consideration. View full article

The Pirates have three catchers on their roster, each of whom comes with warts and upside. Should the Cubs pursue an intradivisional trade? Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images The Pittsburgh Pirates look like they’ll be cautious buyers this offseason, with a young core that features center fielder Oneil Cruz, left fielder Bryan Reynolds, and a trio of aces in Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller. However, Bob Nutting is a notoriously cheap owner, and the Pirates won’t be dipping their toes into the deep end of free agency any time soon. As such, they’ll need to scour the trade market in order to build around their in-house talent. The Cubs, meanwhile, should absolutely be buyers this offseason, with plenty of money coming off the books. There is an obvious need for an ace atop the staff, as well as some middle-of-the-order boppers. Elsewhere on the roster, though, is a pressing need for a catcher. The team tried to trade for Logan O’Hoppe last season, but they weren’t able to get the deal across the finish line. Thus, we arrive at an obvious fit between trade partners. The Pirates have breakout starter Joey Bart (formerly the Giants’ top prospect), Henry Davis (the No. 1 overall pick in 2021), and Endy Rodríguez (acquired in the Joe Musgrove deal) all on their major-league roster. Most teams tend not to carry three catchers, and with Andrew McCutchen entrenched at DH for as long as he wants to keep playing, the Pirates could easily try to move one of their three backstops. (They have tried Davis in right field, but he’s a well-below-average outfielder and doesn't hit enough to make it worth displacing recent trade acquisition Bryan De La Cruz to slot him there for the long term.) Starting with Bart, whom the Cubs targeted when they traded Kris Bryant to San Francisco in 2021, the 27-year-old catcher hit .265/.337/.462, for an OPS+ of 120, posting career highs in every notable offensive category. He remains a middling defender, and he didn’t do great work with the Pirates’ otherwise excellent pitching staff, which could turn the Cubs away as they focus on having a “game manager” behind the plate. Still, there are few catchers with Bart’s upside at bat—even if putting a lot of stock into an 80-game breakout is risky. Davis has long been a brilliant hitter in the minor leagues, slashing .302/.424/.550 since the beginning of 2023 in the highest levels of the minors. However, he’s been worth -2.0 WAR in 99 games in his major-league career, with a career OPS+ of 62. His defensive work has been solid thus far, though a 30.2% strikeout rate is going to scare off a lot of interested suitors. Rodríguez debuted in 2023 with a below-average bat (.612 OPS, 66 OPS+), and proceeded to miss all of the 2024 season after undergoing UCL surgery. However, he’s a great defensive catcher who has received universal praise for his work calling games, and he’s hit 295/.383/.506 in his minor-league career. He probably fits the mold the Cubs are looking for the best, though pairing him with Miguel Amaya (.644 OPS in 2024, career 85 OPS+) could turn the catching spot into a black hole in the lineup if neither adjusts to major league-caliber pitching. Of course, to make this swap happen, the Pirates would actually have to: A) want to trade one of their three highly-touted receivers, and B) be willing to trade them within the division. The catching market will likely be as chilly as usual this offseason, with Kyle Higashioka and Carson Kelly serving as the top options in free agency. Still, the Pirates could only sell high on Bart, and they may not want to trade one of their few above-average hitters. The Cubs could offer a number of higher-level prospects with big bats, who (nonetheless) haven’t broken out at the big-league level yet, including outfielders Alexander Canario and Cole Roederer; infielders Matt Mervis and BJ Murray; or a couple of post-hype prospects, like Ed Howard and Brennen Davis. Depending on their valuation of Davis or Rodríguez, they could make a play for a long-term partner with Amaya behind the dish. What do you think the Cubs should do? Should they try to pry one of the Pirates’ catchers out of Pittsburgh? And what should they be willing to give up to do so? View full article

After much debate about whether the outfielder and first baseman would return to Chicago in 2025, Cody Bellinger has made his decision. Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images This time last year, Cody Bellinger was coming off his best season in years, as he won the 2023 National League Comeback Player of the Year award for his work anchoring the Cubs lineup. His 139 OPS+ was his best since the 2019 campaign when he won NL MVP (167 OPS+), and it was clear that Chicago needed to retain his lefty bat in the middle of the order if they hoped to escape their rebuild. What happened next was nothing short of a disaster, as Bellinger (as well as agent Scott Boras's other top clientele) got phased out of the higher-end of the bidding pool in free agency, with he, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery all having to settle for less-than-expected deals late into the winter. Bellinger's deal was particularly unique, as the three-year, $80 million contract was broken down into three separate years of different pay, with the outfielder/first baseman holding player options between each season of the deal. With the 2024 season concluded, Bellinger's first chance to trigger an opt-out has come and gone. He has elected to remain with the Cubs for at least next season, putting the Cubs on the hook for his $27.5 million salary. Bellinger was far less productive in 2024 than he was during his maiden season on the North Side, as his OPS tumbled over 100 points (.881 to .751), and his WAR was slashed in half, from 4.4 to 2.2. While still an eminently valuable player, it was clear that Bellinger either wasn't fully healthy like he was in 2023 (once again raising questions about his long-term durability after the cataclysmic end to his tenure in Los Angeles) or caught lightning in a bottle during his first season with the Cubs. There were plenty of people hoping that Bellinger would return in 2025, though his price tag may prove prohibitive as the Cubs try to add to their roster this winter. The obvious and immediate implication for this is that Bellinger will now become the everyday right fielder, as Pete Crow-Armstrong is locked into the starting gig in center field. That will push Seiya Suzuki to designated hitter more often than not, though Bellinger could always spell Michael Busch at first base. Busch has some experience playing second and third base, though he won't provide additional defensive value over Nico Hoerner or Isaac Paredes at either spot. The Cubs' luxury tax commitments for 2025 currently sit around $190 million, according to FanGraphs, though that includes projections for arbitration cases that have yet to be finalized. That situates them roughly $50 million behind the first threshold for next year's luxury tax, which is enough to make additions to the roster, but almost certainly takes them out of the running for Juan Soto (in case anyone was letting themselves do too much daydreaming). Feasibly, they could free up some money by dealing a guy like Jameson Taillon, but this team needs to add talent this winter before it considers subtracting any. Bellinger could be a candidate for a trade himself, though it's hard to imagine what sort of market would develop for him. He's a versatile glove who's a net positive in four different spots (first base, plus all three outfield spots), though his maximum value would come to a team that is in desperate need of a center fielder, which the Cubs are not. His 2025 salary will scare off more than a few suitors, as would his $25 million player option for 2026. Unless the Cubs could find a team that thinks Bellinger is closer to his 2023 self rather than the player he was this past season, it doesn't seem productive to deal a productive lefty bat like him. It's worth noting that a fractured rib and persistent hand issues contributed to his downturn in production this year, though he suffered a gnarly knee injury in May 2023 and returned within a month to continue producing at an All-Star level. Nevertheless, the fact that Bellinger hasn't been able to make it through a full season without missing time due to injury since 2020 is concerning. With Drew Smyly's mutual option declined as well, the Cubs can turn their attention in full to free agency and the trade market, where they will be seeking a catcher, another option in the rotation, and some bullpen help, at a minimum. View full article

Yea, it looks like the TV and broadcasting issues are hitting them really hard. Mozeliak has not been shy about the team's direction. I imagine it'll be a full-on firesale, starting with Gray. Not sure what they could get for Arenado and his contract

Thanks for catching. The Cardinals official website doesn't do a great job of adjudicating that stuff. But it's no surprise that they're behind the times...

Following a season in which everyone in the division besides the Brewers disappointed, how are the Cubs’ rivals going to approach this winter? Image courtesy of © Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images The Cubs find themselves in an interesting position this offseason. They should be obvious buyers, after finishing 83-79 for a second consecutive season. Meanwhile, the other four teams in their division are facing payroll questions, broadcasting/television concerns, and/or stagnating cores. The Brewers won the NL Central handily in 2024, though they failed to advance past the Wild Card round of the playoffs thanks to Devin Williams hanging a changeup to oft-rumored Cubs target Pete Alonso. Like one year ago, the Cubs enter the winter with a chance to become the unquestioned favorites in the National League’s least daunting division. Whether or not they will seize the moment remains to be seen, though. In the meantime, let’s take a look at each of their four division rivals and see who will be buying and who will be selling over the next few months. Milwaukee Brewers 2024 Finish: 93-69 (1st Place) The Brewers are in a bit of an odd state after suffering their heartbreaker against the Mets. For the better part of the last half-decade, they’ve clearly been the class of the division, even after they traded away 2021 NL Cy Young Corbin Burnes and lost his co-ace, Brandon Woodruff, to injury. However, they continue to operate with a svelte budget, and they face a number of pressing free agency cases—especially that of star shortstop Willy Adames. Jackson Chourio is a bona fide superstar, and will be a pain for the Cubs for years to come, while Freddy Peralta, William Contreras, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, and others form a solid core to build around. However, the perennially underfunded Brew Crew will probably have to trade one (or both) of Rhys Hoskins and Devin Williams, both of whom are expensive and entering the final year of their respective contracts. Christian Yelich’s contract remains a major pain point, because his $23.8 million AAV has started to outstrip his production as he ages and deals with injuries. At this point, he’s probably going to be relegated to designated hitter as well—and will hamstring what the Brewers can do in free agency. As such, if they’re going to add, they’ll have to do it on the trade market, while plucking from a middle-of-the-road farm system. This is a well-coached, intelligently-run organization, even with Craig Counsell plying his trade in Chicago nowadays. The Brewers will sell off some costly veterans while bringing in a number of young, high-upside players. They won’t compete with the Cubs for the prized free agents in this winter’s class, but they’ll be an active player on the hot stove nonetheless. Verdict: Ambiguous (both buyer & seller) St. Louis Cardinals 2024 Finish: 83-79 (T-2 Place) The Cardinals are one of the teams most impacted by the Diamond Sports bankruptcy, with a lot of uncertainty surrounding their television revenue streams. MLB Insider John Denton expects that the team will slash their payroll by upwards of $60 million this offseason. Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, and Ryan Helsley are all expected to be dealt ,as the team moves toward employing cheaper, younger talent. They won’t be able to get a lot in deals for those players on their own (save perhaps Helsley), but the Cardinals are entering a legitimate rebuilding period for the first time since Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols first arrived. This has been a really good team for a long time, but the bill always comes due, and the Cardinals’ pattern of having one of the oldest rosters in baseball wasn’t going to work forever. Paul Goldschmidt, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge are all pending free agents, and will certainly walk away. The Cardinals are the most obvious seller in the division, and probably the favorite at this point in time to finish last in the NL Central next season. Verdict: Seller Cincinnati Reds 2024 Finish: 77-85 (4th Place) The Reds only have two pending free agents: Justin Wilson and Buck Farmer. Jakob Junis has a mutual option. Brent Suter and Luke Maile have team options. And Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagán have player options. That’s it. The Reds are going to be bringing back the vast majority of a core that played nearly-.500 ball in the second half of the season. They just hired Terry Francona as manager, and have a tantalizing young core of players led by Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene. They only have about $70 million in luxury tax commitments on their roster for 2025 (though that number will go up with arbitration cases), putting them about $90 million behind the league average. Cincinnati almost never plunges into the deep end of free agency, but they have the money and foundational pieces to justify it this year. They’re going to make additions on the trade market as well—another starter, and a power bat at first base or the corner outfield will be high on their priority list—and should pose a serious and immediate threat to the Cubs and Brewers for divisional supremacy. They should be a favorite for a reunion with Sonny Gray, in particular, if the Cardinals indeed hold a fire sale. Verdict: Buyer Pittsburgh Pirates 2024 Finish: 76-86 (5th Place) For what it’s worth, the Pirates’ 76 wins would have been good enough to finish outside the cellar in any other division in 2024. Whether that speaks to the mediocrity of the NL Central or the state of certain franchises around baseball is up for interpretation. Regardless, the Pirates have an obvious strength to build around: starting pitching—their three-headed monster of Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller, in particular. General manager Ben Cherrington already hinted at this being a trade-heavy offseason for the team, as it seeks to build around a core of players that also includes outfielders Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz, and catcher Joey Bart. The team lacks impact hitters at the top of their farm system, so if they want to add more offense after the team finished bottom-three in the NL in runs scored for the fifth year in a row, they’ll have to do it on the trade market. Of course, we all know by now that Pirates owner Bob Nutting is too cheap to pursue meaningful additions in free agency. Perhaps the presence of Skenes, and his immense popularity on social media, will push Nutting to spend some money to make the team more relevant, but that’s a pipe dream at best for Pirates fans. Expect Pittsburgh to be very active on the trade market as a buyer, though they’ll be bargain bin shopping no matter what route they choose to pursue. Verdict: Buyer View full article