Cody Bellinger Will Be A Chicago Cub In 2025, What Does It Mean For The Rest Of The Offseason?

This time last year, Cody Bellinger was coming off his best season in years, as he won the 2023 National League Comeback Player of the Year award for his work anchoring the Cubs lineup. His 139 OPS+ was his best since the 2019 campaign when he won NL MVP (167 OPS+), and it was clear that Chicago needed to retain his lefty bat in the middle of the order if they hoped to escape their rebuild.

What happened next was nothing short of a disaster, as Bellinger (as well as agent Scott Boras's other top clientele) got phased out of the higher-end of the bidding pool in free agency, with he, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery all having to settle for less-than-expected deals late into the winter. Bellinger's deal was particularly unique, as the three-year, $80 million contract was broken down into three separate years of different pay, with the outfielder/first baseman holding player options between each season of the deal.

With the 2024 season concluded, Bellinger's first chance to trigger an opt-out has come and gone. He has elected to remain with the Cubs for at least next season, putting the Cubs on the hook for his $27.5 million salary.

Bellinger was far less productive in 2024 than he was during his maiden season on the North Side, as his OPS tumbled over 100 points (.881 to .751), and his WAR was slashed in half, from 4.4 to 2.2. While still an eminently valuable player, it was clear that Bellinger either wasn't fully healthy like he was in 2023 (once again raising questions about his long-term durability after the cataclysmic end to his tenure in Los Angeles) or caught lightning in a bottle during his first season with the Cubs. There were plenty of people hoping that Bellinger would return in 2025, though his price tag may prove prohibitive as the Cubs try to add to their roster this winter.

The obvious and immediate implication for this is that Bellinger will now become the everyday right fielder, as Pete Crow-Armstrong is locked into the starting gig in center field. That will push Seiya Suzuki to designated hitter more often than not, though Bellinger could always spell Michael Busch at first base. Busch has some experience playing second and third base, though he won't provide additional defensive value over Nico Hoerner or Isaac Paredes at either spot.

The Cubs' luxury tax commitments for 2025 currently sit around $190 million, according to FanGraphs, though that includes projections for arbitration cases that have yet to be finalized. That situates them roughly $50 million behind the first threshold for next year's luxury tax, which is enough to make additions to the roster, but almost certainly takes them out of the running for Juan Soto (in case anyone was letting themselves do too much daydreaming). Feasibly, they could free up some money by dealing a guy like Jameson Taillon, but this team needs to add talent this winter before it considers subtracting any.

Bellinger could be a candidate for a trade himself, though it's hard to imagine what sort of market would develop for him. He's a versatile glove who's a net positive in four different spots (first base, plus all three outfield spots), though his maximum value would come to a team that is in desperate need of a center fielder, which the Cubs are not. His 2025 salary will scare off more than a few suitors, as would his $25 million player option for 2026. Unless the Cubs could find a team that thinks Bellinger is closer to his 2023 self rather than the player he was this past season, it doesn't seem productive to deal a productive lefty bat like him.

It's worth noting that a fractured rib and persistent hand issues contributed to his downturn in production this year, though he suffered a gnarly knee injury in May 2023 and returned within a month to continue producing at an All-Star level. Nevertheless, the fact that Bellinger hasn't been able to make it through a full season without missing time due to injury since 2020 is concerning.

With Drew Smyly's mutual option declined as well, the Cubs can turn their attention in full to free agency and the trade market, where they will be seeking a catcher, another option in the rotation, and some bullpen help, at a minimum.