Rcal10
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Straight without deferrals I can see your 14/$500M. Puts the average over $35M a year. That sounds much closer than the $30M average. But like you said, he may be just peaking. With some deferred money I can see him getting to !600M, if he so chooses to agree to deferring money.
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And with deferrals he got $700M for 10 years. But even using your figure, that is $46M a year. Judge for $40M a year. Why wouldn’t Soto get at least $35M a year? And if they get creative with his contract why couldn’t he get to $600M over 15 years? I feel you are undervaluing just how good Soto is. Honestly it all depends in how many teams are in on him.
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Oh, I don’t have hope the Cubs will get him. We agree there. And that isn’t even a knock against the FO. No fan base should feel good about their chances of getting Soto. Sure, the usual suspects (Dodgers, Yankees, Mets)probably have a higher chance, but even still it is probably no more than a 25-30% chance for any of those teams. With the Cubs I would put it at 5%. So not getting my hopes up.
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Yesterday, watching him hit that game winning homer, my first thought was 15/$600M. But then when Stratos came in at the 15/$450M he made me reconsider and made me think maybe I was crazy with that amount. I know Stratos is low. I think he could very well get that $600M if a bidding war starts and if there are some creative contract offers with deferred money. I could see a team going that high with deferred money so that his annual comes in around $35M for payroll purposes. Not as egregious as Ohtani, but some sort of creative financing. He is a generational talent. And as you said, no one coming down the pipeline like him. So I telling what happens. I just wish the Cubs would be in on it, no matter the cost.
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But Trout got that as an extension. He didn’t go to free agency and have teams bid on him. If he has he probably would have gone over that amount. Soto will get more than $30M a year as an average, no matter how many years he signs for, IMO. Probably closer to $35M. And he will most likely get that average for more than 12 years. Maybe not $550M for 15. That might be too high. But when teams start bidding wars, who knows. 🤷
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I think you are way light on this. If he is getting $450M it would be for 11 years. If he goes 15 years IMO we are talking $550M. Maybe more if teams get into a bidding war.
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I don’t have a real issue with them not dumping at the deadline. And I am not sure if this small amount of money they went over the LT will affect this year and the next, but I do think he should have been under. Whether it cost them a few million more over the next few years if they are over those years, or it cost them draft picks or IFA money, or whatever else it may cost, I would think if they were this close they should have been able to go under. Trade Smyle and pick up all but $300,000 of his contract. Someone would have taken him for basically nothing. Trade Tauchman, same think. Pick up whatever was needed to make a deal and get under the LT. Neither would have dented their playoff chances. IMO it was a mistake made by the FO. Is it egregious? No. But it was a mistake.
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What? Ok, whatever. In any event, Weaver signed for $2M with a team option. So whatever make him this player you knew would be good was missed by 29 other teams. Actually I am pretty sure the Yankees got much more out of him than they expected, as well. So he fooled 30 teams but you are not surprised. The point I was making originally anyway, was Weaver was signed as a low budget signing. He is a perfect example of a guy who would be considered a dumpster dive signing, who turned out very good. But I still wouldn’t assume he would be good next year. Regardless of what you saw as good on Weavwr, results were not good, prior to this year. You said he stays healthy, is versatile and throws a lot of pitches well and yet he signed for $2M. If all you are saying was true, would he have cost a whole lot more? Are all organizations just stupid? Or is Weaver JAG? I would say JAG. And this is nothing more than just taking a chance on a low budget guy a team like the Yankees can cut if he sucked.
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Weaver has been in the majors since 2016. So any MILB success or tools he showed were a long time ago. His last 4 years in the majors he has sucked. As I said, I give the Yankees credit for signing him and him being successful. But it was nothing more than a roll of the dice. It worked this year. I wouldn’t bet in would work again next year. Tools or not, he has been pretty bad in the majors. He was a dumpster dive signing that worked in 2024.
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Exactly. The Yankees pen was built on small trades, maybe a system guy or two and a small FA signing. Just happen to have good years by enough of those guys. To Weaver, specifically, good for the Yankees seeing something, I guess. But I wouldn’t bet money he will be their closer for all of next year. I would bet he has a better chance of failing next year than actually putting together a season where he is the closer all year. He is JAG.
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True. But for the Yankees having so many resources, have they spent a lot on the one? Or are the resources cast off sort of guys? I mean Weaver is closing! As you said, what is happening in the playoffs is compelling. BTW, you didn’t even mention Hader or Williams blowing games. This is why I always argue that a lot of what happens with pens comes from journeyman or young guys having good years. Throwing money at it isn’t the only answer.
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Yes, apparently the Yankees do. Must have seen something in his last 4 years with an era around 6 during that time. 🤷 I was actually amazed he was their closer. But that goes to the uncertainty of the bullpen.
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To add to your point, they lost out by 1 game. And the guy we are talking about sucked the last 6 weeks. Had he been any good they would have made the playoffs. Definitely not crazy to hold onto him. As for this notion that they kept him for some faint hope they might back into the playoffs, see Phillies in 22’ Diamondbacks in 23’ and now Mets in 24’. All last teams in. Which, again, makes a strong case for keeping guys because you hope you back into the playoffs. And it almost worked too. At one point the Cubs had over a 90% chance of making the playoffs. Criticizing his unwillingness to trade Stroman is basically doing so in hindsight. Had Stroman been solid down the stretch and the Cubs “backed in” to the playoffs no one would be complaining that Jed didn’t take a chance. And had they dealt him there is no chance they would have gotten Westburg.
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Let’s see how well this statement ages. I get it. Yes, Darvish would have been nice to still have. But the jury is still out on the actual trade. Cubs got what they wanted. Young talent. SD got what they wanted. While the Q for Cease trade has proven to not be good, in hindsight, of course, the final results of the Darvish trade cannot be judged yet.
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I don’t disagree with you on Theo. But I do think among other reasons, one of the reasons he left a year early and/or didn’t re-up with the Cubs was his philosophy was different that Tom’s. I do not think Tom was comfortable with spending what Theo wanted to spend. I think Jed is much less aggressive. I completely agree with that. But I also think he is still the president of baseball opts because he isn’t as aggressive. However, as has been pointed out in previous posts, not being aggressive up until now and “never will be aggressive” can change in one off season. Jed was aggressive with Otani. He just had no chance. Let’s see if he gets aggressive with Soto. There are no excuses for him not to.
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I hope he does get aggressive this year and we end up with Soto. This would be a good time to go big, IMO.
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He couldn’t sign guys to long term contracts. Tom would have fired him by now had he done that. I think Jed has had enough time and enough money and resources to build a winning team. Or at the very least, I would think Tom thinks that way. I doubt very much he is happy with the last few years.
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Jerry has done this before. When the state isn’t giving him what he wants he threatens to sell or move the team. He isn’t getting his way with funding, and he shouldn’t. So now the reports come out about him selling. Typical rich man tantrum.
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Who said anything about personal feelings? To suggest someone didn’t like a guy even before he started playing with the Cubs doesn’t mean they didn’t like him personally. It means they didn’t particularly like his game. Didn’t think he would be a good fit for the team. I know for a fact chibear was not a fan of the deal. He questioned Paredes being able to be a good player for the team. That is all I am saying. And I am not even saying chibear is wrong. He has his reasons for not liking Paredes game(nothing personal). The 200 AB with the team were not what he was basing his opinion of Paredes game on. That was all I was saying when I said some people didn’t like him even before he played a game on the Cubs. I agree with you that we shouldn’t comment on a player personally. And I agree an opinion on a player should be strictly on performance. But it can be performance prior to being a Cub.
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I’m not sure this is true. Yes, IMO, Jed follows exactly how TR wants to build a team. Intelligent spending, no crazy contracts, build a good minor league system, keep the payroll within a reasonable level, etc, etc….. However, TR might feel ownership gives him enough to win. And he hasn’t won. If Tom was so happy with Jed this wouldn’t be a lame duck year. And so far, it is. I honestly think Tom thinks he gives Jed enough money and enough freedom to build a winning team. So if he doesn’t this year he might be gone.
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Boy do I hope you are right about him. I would be happy with a decent bat who can slot into the 6 hole of a good line up. Anything behind that would be great.
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I know when the deal was first made there were a few people who didn’t like Parades. They are not using 200 AB as proof that he isn’t good. They felt that way before. If anything, now those AB are being used to confirm their opinion. I do understand some concerns. But as you said, maybe he won’t be a star, but he is a reasonable upgrade over Morel, even if some of the concerns people have about him become a reality. Personally I think he is a solid player and a top 10 third baseman. So I am happy to have him. He has had a wRC+ of 123 over the last 3 years, when he was 23-25. I see no reason he should be able to stay that was over the next few years. And that would be a very good player. Maybe not a superstar or all star, but solid.
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To be fair, some disliked him even before he played his first game with the Cubs. His Cubs AB were not the issue with some. 🤷 i was not one who hated him before and I still don’t. I think he is a fine third baseman and a nice pick up.
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Facts don’t matter. Some people have been against Parades since they traded for him. For some, he replaced Happ.
