Honestly, I don’t know. I agree he can’t live on the edge like he has so far. But then again, his era with 83.8 LOB% is 2.82, as you pointed out. If it did drop to 74.8%, like Hendricks, would his era be closer to 3.50? Still better than the xFIP number. And, I am not arguing Assad, per se. I am asking a question as to when does his actual results dictate what a pitcher is, instead of his expected results. Hendricks is a perfect example. He has generally gotten better results than what he is expected
Baseball is so into dissecting everything, do they break a pitchers pitch down based on bases empty, man on, man in scoring position, etc? Is it possible some guys actually focus better with men on base. Some guys have a way of bearing down and making better pitches while others falter in tough spots? Is it maybe not just luck some guys can pitch out of jams better than others? Again, if they do it a long time(Hendricks) is it really luck?
Again, this is not arguing. This is an honest question about when results should be used versus expected results. And I know it is too soon for Assad.