Matthew Trueblood

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Not every game can be a referendum on an entire season. The Cubs and Brewers entered their game Monday in Milwaukee in a flat-footed tie atop the NL Central, and although the hosts took the game in convincing fashion, that game itself should be quickly forgotten. Matthew Boyd, whose command and control have been the hallmarks of his All-Star season, simply didn't have them, and while he dodged some early traffic, the Brewers offense punished his imprecision in the middle innings. Sometimes, you just have an off night. However, it would be wrong and misguided to assume that the standings for the year reflect a reality at which Monday merely poked its tongue out. It's fairer to say that while Monday's contest was a distortion and exaggeration, it illustrated a basic truth: the Brewers are a lot better than the Cubs right now. Since May 22, the Cubs have the second-best record in the National League, at 32-24. They've outscored opponents by 29 runs during that span. They haven't collapsed; they're not in much danger of falling out of the playoff picture entirely. However, the Brewers have been better—much, much better. They're 38-17 over the same span, and have outscored opponents by an even 100 runs. Their offense is lighter on power than Chicago's, but it's much deeper and more consistent. Their pitching staff is both stronger at the top and much, much deeper. The Cubs play great defense; the Brewers play equally great defense. The Cubs run the bases better than almost anyone in the league; the Brewers are the reason for the word "almost" in that sentence. This doesn't mean that the Cubs are doomed to slouch back into the muddle of the National League Wild Card race, as the Brewers charge smoothly to their third straight division title. This year, unlike in previous ones, the Cubs have a real chance at winning the division title. However, the gap between these teams that some perceived back in April or May (favoring the Cubs) is gone. A real gap has emerged, favoring the Brewers. Milwaukee really doesn't need anything more than the modest upgrade they made at backup catcher, when they traded for Danny Jansen on Monday. The Cubs, if they want to keep pace and edge out the Brewers, have multiple major needs. Jed Hoyer has his contract extension. The team he's assembled has some scintillating talent, fueling a strong campaign to date. Without massive reinforcement over the next 50 hours, though, they will fall short of the division title yet again, and they won't get very far in October. Hoyer doesn't like dealing from a position of weakness, and has tried to maintain leverage as well as possible throughout this process. With the countdown clock ticking and the reality of his team and their chief rivals playing out on the field every day, though, that leverage is gone. The Cubs ought to be desperate. If they aren't—if ownership's decision to extend Hoyer was a statement that coming this far was somehow sufficient—then they're not setting a high enough standard to get anywhere worth going. Without a major move and (just as importantly) some improved performance from their best incumbent players over the final two months, the Cubs aren't going to keep up with the Brewers. The two might be next to each other on the track, but that's just a snapshot. If you watch the video, you can see that Milwaukee is running much faster and is much less exhausted than Chicago is. If nothing changes that, this race won't look very close by the time the teams reach the finish line. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images Without Ryne Sandberg, there would be no Wrigley Field. The old jewel at Clark and Addison was an attraction, of a kind, when Sandberg joined the Chicago Cubs in 1982, but it was a dying thing, not a vibrant, eternal thing. Sandberg was in his second season with the team on Apr. 29, 1983, when the Cubs lost a home game to the Dodgers before such an uninspired and unimpressed crowd of 9,391 that manager Lee Elia cut loose with his famous rant about Cubs fans thereafter. By then, it was already clear that there might be something special in Sandberg, but there was little special about the Cubs, let alone their decrepit septuagenarian home. That year would be their 11th straight season with a .500 record or worse, and it was usually worse—much worse. Famously, at that time, Wrigley had no lights. They couldn't play home games at night; the place got dark and quiet enough during the days. In 1984, though, it was Sandberg—brilliant, even scintillating, not just playing well but playing dazzling all-around baseball—who lit the fire that has still never gone out in Wrigleyville. That year, he had the famous game in which he twice tied the game in the Cubs' final at-bat before a national TV audience, against the best closer in baseball. He hit 19 home runs and drove in 84 runs in 1984, but he also scored 114 times and added 36 doubles and 19 triples. He stole 32 bases, and played the surest-handed second base in the game. He was the MVP of the National League, and nearly unanimously so. The Cubs were better than .500 again at last—a lot better. They won 96 games and the National League East. No, they weren't unfairly robbed of home-field advantage because they couldn't host games at night. No, they didn't hold onto what should have been an ironclad advantage in that year's National League Championship Series. And no (though he made it back to the postseason in 1989 and had a 1.258 OPS against the Giants), Sandberg's teams never came as close to breaking the curse of the billy goat again. But Sandberg was the spark, and the breath of air to make it spread. He was a one-man wildfire, and by 1988, Wrigleyville could be seen from space on summer weeknights. That's Sandberg's legacy. He altered the identity of the Cubs and everyone who loved them. Second base is the closest landmark we have to a center of the diamond, and Sandberg sent a ripple out from his place at the keystone that would eventually be felt throughout Chicago. As great as Ron Santo, Ernie Banks, Billy Williams and Fergie Jenkins were, they had not been able to shake the team out of the deep funk into which it fell after winning their war pennant in 1945. The city had adopted the Cubbies (that belittling moniker and all) as their lovable losers. No one, until Sandberg, managed to change that. The actual results didn't change permanently, beginning in 1984. Losing seasons still outnumbered winning ones, over the course of Sandberg's career. Even as losses accumulated, though, those teams were much more respectable. They had someone fans could take pride in, with ample national profile. They began churning out other players, like Rafael Palmeiro, Greg Maddux and Mark Grace, who were similarly ineluctable in their quality and respectability. They became a place where, for instance, Andre Dawson wanted to play when collusion took financial incentives out of his decision-making process in the winter of 1986-87. Sandberg was the first Cub in a quarter-century to win an MVP award. Since then, they've had winners in 1987, 1998, and 2016, and very close finishers in a handful of other years. Sandberg's fluid, exquisitely routinized movements on ground balls and on the bases were just extensions of his personality. He was a student of the game and a servant of its fans, so dedicated to them that he walked away for one stretch when he felt he could no longer give the game the tenacity and dignity it deserved from him. If you're a Cubs fan in 2025, you owe an overweening debt to Sandberg, because the Cubs as we know them would not exist without him. He wasn't the best player in team history, or its most vivid personality, but he brought the relentless, beautiful quality that makes baseball its best self to Wrigley Field. He was the main attraction of the very first Cubs Convention, and a fixture at those events for decades afterward. He was a proud steward of the game, and became an ambassador for the team on the condition that the team could acquit itself as a conduit of the game worthy of its fans. Thanks to his insistence on that standard, ever since he came along, the Cubs have thus acquitted themselves much more consistently than they used to. Cancer needed two chances to finish off Sandberg. He beat it back once, but the pernicious form of metastatic prostate cancer he had is one of the few things in nature as tenacious as Sandberg the ballplayer was. It would have been wonderful if he could have thwarted its attempts to shut down the party twice, as he did to Bruce Sutter 41 years ago, but lives can't have happy endings. They matter because they end, and their ends are sad. Sandberg's certainly is; the world could do with another decade or two of fundamental decency, and he had it to give. While he was here, though, he gave heaping helpings of that particular blessing to fans, friends, and family. Baseball is great, not because it frees us from mortality, but because it makes us more aware of ourselves and the people around us for however long the games last. Our attention is all drawn to the same place, and the hum of really well-played and fully felt baseball heightens our senses and slows entropy's march toward us. All entertainment is about stealing time from death itself. Really good entertainment never lets you ponder that for too long. Sandberg gave Cubs fans a decade and a half of great entertainment, and the reward for that is, in one small sense, immortality: his profound respect for the game will keep him alive in the memories of baseball fans for another 65 years or more. Brewers hitting coach Al Leboeuf returned to the park as the Brewers came home for this homestand. LeBoeuf, 65, had been away from the team for weeks to undergo treatment of his own second bout of prostate cancer. Happily, his prognosis now looks good, at least for now. That's life, of course—and, in some ways, baseball. As LeBoeuf said, he's been very lucky. Sandberg couldn't quite catch the same break. There are always winners and losers, but it's not always because they earned anything different from one another. It's comforting, sometimes, to be reminded that there are winners, even when we lose. It's certainly wonderful, even on this excruciating night, to know that there is still hope for many who face a similar thing to what Sandberg did. My first game at Wrigley Field was Sandberg's last there, as a player, on Sept. 21, 1997. I remember a lot about it, but relatively little of it is focused on Sandberg. I was too young. I'd been a baby the last time he'd been able to reach October, and we'd just gotten cable so that I could watch the Cubs that very spring. I got just one summer with Sandberg, in real time, and when you're eight years old, Sammy Sosa and Brian McRae and Brant Brown look more interesting than Sandberg did at that late stage of his career. Ever since, though, I've been proud to say that that was my first game, because it's what ties me tangibly to the generation—to the man—who remade the Chicago Cubs and changed what they meant to the North Side of Chicago. Though he's now gone, he's left a lot to fans of the team, and to baseball fans in general. Cancer can't touch all of that, just as it can't tear down Wrigley Field. View full article

Yes. And yeah, it's unlikely, but it's far from impossible that that happens. I'm somewhat shocked. I would not have done this now, and even though I don't expect the Ricketts family to do things the way I would, I'm surprised that they did.

Image courtesy of © Jim Rassol-Imagn Images If the Chicago Cubs have their druthers at the 2025 MLB trade deadline, they'll reel in Marlins righthander Edward Cabrera to join the front end of their starting rotation. Cabrera has lowered his arm slot, gaining both more electricity in an already nasty arsenal and better command thereof. He's under team control for three years beyond 2025. The Cubs have scouted him closely and believe his stuff would play even better in front of their strong defensive group. Right now, though, Miami is holding out for both Owen Caissie and Jaxon Wiggins as the centerpieces of a deal for Cabrera, sources say, and the Cubs are unwilling to meet that asking price. Caissie is the team's top outfield prospect, and Wiggins is their best minor-league starter. Giving up both would leave a huge hole in the team's farm system, and the two teams are in a staring contest, each hoping the other blinks first. Since there's no guarantee that Cabrera's price tag will come down, the Chicago front office has also remained engaged with several other teams about controllable pitchers who would deliver huge impact down the stretch but can also be retained for another two or more seasons. Sources with knowledge of the discussions confirmed the team has talked to the Nationals about MacKenzie Gore, their southpaw ace, who is under one fewer year of team control than Cabrera—he can be a free agent after 2027—but has been more durable and consistently able to fill up the zone. The price tag on Gore is similar to that of Cabrera, though, and of the two, Miami is seen as the more likely trade partner. Nationals interim baseball chief Mike DeBartolo won't trade Gore unless he gets a deal he can't refuse. The Cubs have also stayed in touch with the Pirates, with whom they came close to striking a deal to acquire Mitch Keller earlier this summer. Keller is under team control, too, but his ceiling is lower than those of Gore or Cabrera and the contract extension he signed in March 2024 is more expensive than their remaining team control. As a result, a deal for Keller would likely include Caissie, but exclude Wiggins, which is the Cubs' preferred outcome. They're cultivating that as an alternative, but it's very much a fallback. The goal is to draw down the asking price on Cabrera. Meanwhile, the Twins' asking price on Joe Ryan is even higher than that for Cabrera or Gore, which (while not unfair, given Ryan's remaining control and his skill set) makes him off-limits for the Cubs. On the other hand, Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax are relief aces under team control through 2027, and the price tags on each would be lower because of the difference of their roles and the utility thereof. The Cubs have discussed both with Minnesota, but they prefer Duran. In Caissie, Kevin Alcántara and Moisés Ballesteros, the Cubs have three strong prospects with ample experience at Triple-A Iowa, knocking loudly on the door to the majors. They don't have an ideal opening for any of the three, and they realize that the best utilization of the group lies in trading at least one to bolster this year's team as it pursues a division title, sources say. However, they're unwilling to trade any of the three for rental players. Thus, the hunt is on for a player who delivers value for the 2026 and 2027 versions of the team, and the front office is working hard to land someone who fits those criteria. There are a few wild cards in that picture, from the obvious (Sandy Alcantara, whose numbers still don't look good but whose stuff still impresses—and who would certainly not cost both Caissie and Wiggins) to the obscure (Jose Soriano, the Angels groundballer on whom the Cubs made calls earlier this year). The team is also ready, if needed, to pivot into a mode where they keep their top set of prospects and acquire a stack of rentals, instead. The problem there is that, with a thin farm system, they're actually better-positioned to acquire high-end players with control than to snag someone like Merrill Kelly. The second tier of Chicago prospects isn't as good as the parallel tiers for some of the other teams who will be talking to the Diamondbacks about Kelly. Finally, don't discount the possibility of the Cubs including an incumbent pitcher in a trade for one of these controllable arms. Specifically, one source suggested that Javier Assad might be bundled in with Caissie and more prospect capital to land Cabrera. Ben Brown is also available, if a team likes the idea of either helping him round out his arsenal to start or converting him to the bullpen. The team could even deal a pitcher in a separate deal, to recuperate prospect depth and create space, depending on their ability to land one of the big arms in their sights. These are the big fish the team is angling for, with the deadline just three and a half days away. Whether they can actually get any of them into the boat is, of course, the big question. It could come down to whether or not Hoyer is willing to make a rare exception and go beyond his comfort zone, in terms of value. View full article

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images If the season ended today, Pete Crow-Armstrong would make a remarkable bit of baseball history. Right now, the highest slugging average ever for a player with an on-base percentage under .310 in a qualifying season is .531, by slugger Tony Armas of the 1984 Red Sox. Juan González slugged .529 in 1992, and Khris Davis slugged .524 in 2016. Crow-Armstrong, however, is slugging .554, despite his .303 on-base percentage. He's having the best power season ever, among players without any semblance of plate discipline—but, of course, that's a backhanded compliment. Specifically, Crow-Armstrong poses a major problem for the offense, because he's settled in as the regular cleanup hitter but he's an almost automatic out against lefties. He still gets to considerable power against southpaws, with 16 extra-base hits in 135 plate appearances, but his OBP against them is a ghastly .235. Obviously, he's been very good—from one end of the slash line to the other—against righties, but against lefties, he's killing them. Practically speaking, power and defense and even baserunning value be damned, there is no such thing as a playable hitter with a .235 OBP. Craig Counsell, therefore, needs to shield Crow-Armstrong from lefties as best he can. That, as much as the sheer power Crow-Armstrong has produced this year, motivated Counsell to move him to the place behind Seiya Suzuki in the batting order every day. Suzuki is the punisher. He's the one who makes a manager think twice about deploying a tough lefty against Kyle Tucker and Crow-Armstrong. Suzuki, who has taken an approach only slightly less aggressive than Crow-Armstrong's this year, is batting .261/.344/.530 against lefties. Because he's there, and because Tucker's splits usually aren't especially wide anyway, managers have every incentive to wait until after Suzuki to swap in their lefty. Moving Michael Busch up to the top of the order, between what are usually a couple of right-handed bats at the bottom of the lineup card and the Tucker-Suzuki danger zone, was partially justified by the fact that it puts two hitters between Busch (.190/.261/.317 against lefties) and Crow-Armstrong, instead of just one if they're batting fourth and sixth. This version of the lineup against righties limits the damage Crow-Armstrong's vulnerability to lefties can do, as best Counsell currently can. However, it doesn't do enough—because it can't. The league knows Crow-Armstrong will give them an out three times in every four trips if they just match him up left-on-left, and while Suzuki might deter them from going to their favorite southpaw early, they have no reason to hesitate about doing it once it's actually Crow-Armstrong's turn. Right now, Counsell is trying to use a mixture of Carson Kelly, Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ as protection for Crow-Armstrong. It's not enough; it's not nearly enough. Firstly, names matter in cases like these. Managers know the numbers, and receive them from their front offices, but they don't make decisions solely based on them. To spook them even slightly when they have a chance of setting up a .235 OBP matchup, you need a player whom they fear based on reputation and track record, rather than just theory. Kelly doesn't meet that threshold, and anyway, his breakout season has hinged more on hammering same-handed pitchers (.952 OPS against righties) than on attacking lefties (.760). Swanson is a strong hitter against lefties, but not such a strong one that he makes up for the free out teams get by swapping in a lefty to take down the guy in front of him. Happ has always been better batting left-handed, and remains so, and worse, everyone knows it. Could that lead the Cubs to be more aggressive than we'd expect in the trade market for Eugenio Suárez, or any other right-handed bat who could hammer lefties for them? Maybe; maybe not. Firstly, Suzuki and Tucker have slumped lately, which has exaggerated the impact of the weak link that is Crow-Armstrong any time a lefty comes in. When they're right, it doesn't matter as much if Crow-Armstrong makes a quick and empty out in such matchups. Secondly, while Kelly, Swanson, Happ, Nico Hoerner, Justin Turner and even the eventually returning Miguel Amaya are imperfect as lefty-mashing punishers behind Crow-Armstrong, they're much better options than many teams in a similar situation would have. Thirdly, the right target might not be out there, unless it be Suárez himself. Turner isn't going anywhere, so a right-hitting first baseman like Carlos Santana (technically a switch-hitter, but great against lefties) or Yandy Díaz is unlikely to come aboard. Righty outfield bats Taylor Ward, Harrison Bader and Ramón Laureano are each having good enough seasons to help in the middle of the order, but it would be hard to justify (or sell in the clubhouse) starting any of them over Happ against righties or pinch-hitting for him every time a lefty comes in. Bader could actually be a platoon partner for Crow-Armstrong himself, but it just doesn't seem practical or realistic that he would enter key games at the expense of the team's best defender, come September or October. Only at third base is there even a halfway open door to an upgrade who also bats right-handed. Finally, there's the upside and the long-term benefits of standing pat to consider. The Cubs hoped Turner would deliver punch against lefties, allowing them to sit Busch more often and softening the pain of any exposure Crow-Armstrong would suffer. All along, though, they've also had the option of getting rid of either Vidal Bruján or Jon Berti and calling up Kevin Alcántara, a righty-hitting center fielder who is batting .338/.427/.615 against lefties this year. That would mean sitting Crow-Armstrong against lefties and/or pinch-hitting for him when lefty relievers come in, but it's a compelling potential move—provided they don't trade Alcántara this week. Since even bringing in Suárez would eat into Matt Shaw's playing time, that has to be weighed in, too. It seems unlikely that Shaw will earn a place in the heart of the order, even against lefties and at the end of the season, but his recent surge is real and giving him everyday playing time has value of its own. He might hit lefties well enough to make an expensive external move feel foolish, anyway. Right now, Suzuki is being asked to protect hitters in both directions in the batting order. Tucker's OPS against lefties this season would be the worst of his career, and Busch and Crow-Armstrong are downright bad against them. The Cubs need two or three righty sluggers who can thwart teams when they try to slice neatly through the lefty-laden heart of the lineup. However, they might need to find those alternatives and complementary pieces within their own ranks, rather than going out and trading for a righty bat. View full article

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images One fascinating dynamic, as the trade deadline looms closer by the hour, is that nearly all teams throughout Major League Baseball believe their rightful place is among the contenders. A few (like the Arizona Diamondbacks, who traded Josh Naylor to the Seattle Mariners Thursday night and have made Eugenio Suárez, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly available in talks) are ready to admit that this won't be their year, but vanishingly few teams are ready to accept even a medium-term rebuild. Arizona vociferously claims to be planning to contend in 2026. Ditto the Baltimore Orioles, even though they're open for business on impending free agents. The Minnesota Twins are ready to sell, but not to turn their attention beyond 2026. Even the West Sacramento Athletics are telling teams they prefer prospects who will be ready to contribute almost immediately. In such an environment, the Chicago Cubs are well-positioned. Their farm system isn't as deep as it needs to be, going forward, thanks to what look like some mid-round swings and misses from the last few drafts and some recent signees from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela who are struggling to find traction. Their Low-A affiliate in Myrtle Beach is full of players languishing, rather than smoothly scaling the professional baseball ladder. However, in the upper levels, there are some exciting players who have found the keys and unlocked their talent. Let's talk about a fistful of players who will be brought up often in trade conversations. The Bats in Iowa I won't bore you with a full recapitulation of Owen Caissie's torrid two months. He's been talked about a ton, and with good reason. Nor should it be surprising to anyone, by now, to hear Moisés Ballesteros come up in trade rumors. They've had such unreservedly good years that teams will be thrilled to bring them in, and either could be slotted right into a big-league lineup for the final two months of this season. Ballesteros, though, comes with those questions about his future as a catcher, on which hinges his hope for future stardom. Of the two, while Caissie is talked about more, I think Ballesteros might actually be the more likely to be traded. It's not hard to imagine a team looking at his bat and deciding to roll the dice on his receiving, especially with the automated ball-strike challenge system set to come to the majors in 2026. There are—count 'em—three other noteworthy hitters in Iowa, too. Kevin Alcántara is the most famous name in the second group, and now might be the Cubs' last chance to trade him for anything of substantial value. He's having a strong season with Iowa, not just in terms of surface-level stats (those are fine, but unremarkable, given his tools and experience) but in terms of the process stuff you wanted to see from him. Alcántara's been more aggressive on hittable pitches and more selective around the edges. His 90th-percentile exit velocity is up from 105 miles per hour to 107.6, a huge step forward, and he's whiffing less on breaking and offspeed stuff. That last part is his biggest bugaboo, and he doesn't have to be even average at it; he just has to get it out of the 'disastrous' zone, and he's done so against Triple-A pitching this year. The thing about Alcántara is, despite his youth, he's in his final year of optionability. He won't have much trade value at all this winter, absent a chance to show what he can do in the majors down the stretch, because he'll have to make the team out of spring training and next year and stay up from then on. As a result, the Cubs will be more open to moving him than a team would normally be with a player who shows these tools and has these limiting factors on their trade value. Much depends on what the team can really get done, but if they make the number and magnitude of moves they hope to make in the next week, Alcántara could be a name on the move. There's far less urgency to trade Jonathon Long, who isn't on the 40-man roster and doesn't even need to be added to it this winter. However, Long is a right-hitting first baseman, which is not the kind of profile you allow to stop a key trade from getting done. He's been very good this year for Iowa. After a tough adjustment period in June, he's raking again, and his season-long numbers include not just good results, but encouraging exit velocities (107 MPH 90th-percentile EV), solid approach metrics and above-average contact skills. I think the Cubs would prefer to keep him; he'd be a good candidate to be a part-time DH and platoon partner to Michael Busch next year. Again, though, his under-the-hood data will put him on some teams' wish lists and can't be treated as untouchable. James Triantos is a mess. That's ungenerous, and unfortunate, but so has his season been. Injuries have interrupted Triantos's efforts to establish himself at Triple A, but his approach is the real problem. He doesn't show good pitch recognition or plate discipline. While he still has the feel for contact and has shown an uptick in power this year, the tools just aren't translating to skills—and it doesn't feel especially likely that they will. Because he has to be added to the 40-man roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft this winter, though, the Cubs might look to make him a throw-in somewhere. The Currency of the Game: Young Arms Jaxon Wiggins is the first name Hoyer will hear every time he picks up the phone this week. The Cubs don't have the depth (or the demonstrated ability to develop pitchers like this) to move a hurler like Wiggins without getting something huge in return, but then again, he's the kind of arm who can net a team something huge in return. The season he's having (striking out over 31% of opposing batters and allowing less than a baserunner per inning, and now thriving at Double-A Knoxville) is enough to put a pitcher very much on the map, as evidenced by his ascension into the top 100 on MLB Pipeline's latest update of that list. Beyond Wiggins, there aren't a lot of arms for whom teams will clamor when they call the Cubs. The rise of Ryan Gallagher has been excellently documented here at NSBB by Jason Ross, and Brandon Birdsell is back in the mix at Iowa, but Birdell is missing about 2 mph from his fastball so far. Gallagher is the guy teams will prefer, with a deep mix and a fastball shape that grades better than most Cubs pitching prospects' do. This is not an exhaustive list, but it's the top collection of names who could pry loose top assets for the team. The roster circumstances of (especially) Alcántara and Triantos might make moves more likely; the much-desired proximity of (especially) Caissie, Ballesteros and Long make them the chips who could level up a trade pursuit. It's pitching depth that makes or breaks organizations, though, and the Cubs have only a few hurlers teams will be excited to acquire. It will be interesting to see whether they feel that they can afford to move any of those arms. View full article

Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-Imagn Images One week from the 2025 MLB trade deadline, it feels important that we identify not only whom the Cubs are most interested in, but who's out there in the wide world of options—and how all those possible targets compare to one another. Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins will not successfully plug every hole on this team or land their ideal players, so ranking all their options gives us a way to evaluate competing possibilities. For the sake of simplicity, I've ranked these 105 players from throughout the league according to their likely impact on the pursuit of a championship in 2025. That slightly reduces (but does not eliminate, for reasons we can discuss further as we go) the role of team control in these rankings, but leaves very present the role of contract status and roster flexibility. Here's the list, with the players to whom we've heard the Cubs meaningfully linked getting some real discussion and the rest merely getting identification. Joe Ryan, RHP, Twins: Although durability is a minor question, Ryan is pitching like an ace this year, and he's affordable—which would mean, for instance, that the Cubs could absorb some money on an underwater contract in a separate deal even after forking over much of their prospect capital to land Ryan. The big hurdle here is that, as an All-Star hurler with 2.5 years of team control remaining, Ryan would cost a ton. Start with Moisés Ballesteros and Jaxon Wiggins, and don't quite stop there. Eugenio Suárez, 3B, Diamondbacks: This one has been talked almost to death. Suffice it to say, here, that Suárez's power and positional fit make him extremely in-demand, which might mean that Arizona will get a return from him considerably richer than we usually see for rental bats. The Cubs very definitely have interest, but the price could balloon beyond their comfort zone. Dylan Cease, RHP, Padres: We discussed how this could come together earlier Thursday. It's a highly unlikely fit, based on the needs and constraints of each side. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Guardians: It's not a reflection of this list being posted here that the Cubs are "in," to one degree or another, on the top handful of names on the board. That fact is just a reflection of the urgency the front office feels to shore up their weaknesses. Now, with that said, this is the first player listed whom I profoundly doubt will actually be dealt at all. One member of a big-league front office earnestly believes that Cleveland leaked their potential willingness to trade Clase or Cade Smith just to drive down what the Twins might get for their own top relievers, who are actually available. Speaking of which.... Jhoan Duran, RHP, Twins: The Cubs prefer Duran to Griffin Jax, as most clubs do. However, the price tag on him isn't much lower than that on Ryan, so if they can get together with Minnesota on a big deal, they might as well make it be for the starter. Edward Cabrera, RHP, Marlins: This, too, we have already discussed in detail this week. Cabrera is a whole new pitcher this year: new arm slot, new mix, new injury issues. (It was his shoulder the last two years. Now that he's dropped his slot a bit, it's his elbow.) He pitched very, very well in front of (among others) Cubs scouts in his latest start for Miami. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Rangers: Obviously, he could have a huge impact for someone, at the front end of the rotation come October. Just as obviously, his contract would be so burdensome that an acquiring team might have to move someone else just to accommodate him, and even more obviously, he's a major injury risk. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Rangers MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Nationals: The Cubs are monitoring this one closely, but the front-office shakeup in Washington (while enough to open the door to a possible deal at all) seems to have most parties a bit unsure of what the price tag will be, or how to meet it. Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Royals: Kansas City and the Cubs were in contact about Lugo way back at the beginning of the month. Then, for a bit, the Cubs hoped and believed they could move the Royals over to a discussion about Kris Bubic, a lefty under control through 2026 who's had an even better season than Lugo's. Now, with Bubic having had a shaky first start out of the break, that's back in a holding pattern, and it's Lugo on whom there's more momentum. The Royals love Owen Caissie; the Cubs won't give him up without getting a player under control beyond 2025. David Bednar, RHP, Pirates: Chicago has long loved Bednar, who's had some very visible wobbles the last two years but can be as unhittable as almost any relief ace in baseball—and has been, for most of this year. Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/OF, Orioles Merrill Kelly, RHP, Diamondbacks: As I reported earlier today, the Cubs will lean hard toward Kelly if they end up choosing between the two available rental starters from Arizona. While his stuff isn't especially sexy, Kelly is an underrated mid-rotation arm, and would be a great get. Kris Bubic, LHP, Royals: See the Lugo entry. Sandy Alcántara, RHP, Marlins: My sense is that the Cubs have cooled on Alcántara, partly because he hasn't yet locked things back in since returning from Tommy John surgery—and partly because the Marlins seem content to bet that he will and try trading him for more this winter. Jesús Sánchez, OF, Marlins Cade Smith, RHP, Guardians Robert Suárez, RHP, Padres: A move that might materialize as A.J. Preller tries to move money around and get all the items on his shopping list, this one would reinforce the Cubs' pen nicely. His peculiar contract structure would probably limit the prospect price, but the Cubs would have to spend big prospect capital elsewhere to get an affordable starter and/or bat after doing this. Ryan Helsley, RHP, Cardinals Griffin Jax, RHP, Twins Willi Castro, UTIL, Twins: Chicago has asked about him repeatedly and he's almost a lock to move. This would be a backup and/or insurance policy across the outfield, a platoon partner for both Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner, and a well-liked clubhouse guy to round out the bench, all rolled into one. Drew Rasmussen, RHP, Rays: No buzz on this one recently, although there was a sense last month that the Rays would be open to moving Rasmussen. He's under contract through 2026, and comes with huge injury baggage, but he's a high-end starter when he can stay on the mound. Taylor Ward, OF, Angels Zac Gallen, RHP, Diamondbacks: See the Kelly entry. Pete Fairbanks, RHP, Rays: One report has the Rays hoping to retain Fairbanks, and he's very much the kind of player and person their clubhouse would miss as they chase a Wild Card berth in the American League. On the other hand, he's very much the kind of player the Rays usually end up cashing in while they can, regardless of what they say. The price tag on him is low enough to make him preferable to some of the other right-handed relievers of near-identical skill. Harrison Bader, OF, Twins: I mentioned earlier today that Bader is a fit the team has explored a bit. That doesn't mean he'll actually end up with the Cubs; he's more likely to go to a team with a more pronounced and urgent need. Carlos Santana, 1B/DH, Guardians Sonny Gray, RHP, Cardinals Ryan Jeffers, C, Twins Yandy Díaz, 1B, Rays: If Justin Turner weren't essential to the structural integrity of the Cubs clubhouse, this would be a good fit. But Turner stays, so Díaz isn't coming. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pirates: Hoyer and Ben Cherington have talked about deals that would send Keller to the Cubs alone, and about package deals that would include Bednar or others. Ultimately, though, the intradivisional trade stigma might foil any fit. The Yankees seem to like Keller more than the Cubs do, anyway. Ryan McMahon, 3B, Rockies: His glove is underrated. His bat is underrated. His contract, however, is a real drag on his trade value, and the Rockies seem to want to keep him, even amid a historically atrocious season. If that changes very near the deadline, the Cubs might already have directed the funds they can add to their payroll for the stretch run elsewhere. Charlie Morton, RHP, Orioles: Jason Ross wrote a great piece about why Morton is better than you think, especially lately. (Alas, we must note, Morton has backslid slightly since then.) Trevor Larnach, OF, Twins Cedric Mullins, OF, Orioles Luis Severino, RHP, Athletics: Still a possibility, but this idea had a bit more steam a fortnight ago. Aaron Bummer, LHP, Team from Suburban Atlanta Ramón Laureano, OF, Orioles: Righty bats who can back up Ian Happ, Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki in case of injuries or (in Happ's case) shaky showings are a little-discussed profile the team is looking at. Like Bader, though, Laureano likely ends up somewhere else. Kyle Freeland, LHP, Rockies: It's been a highly volatile career for the hometown kid who stayed and signed an extension to be a pitcher at elevation. He's having a good campaign this year, though, and could fortify a rotation even in one of the long series in October. Zack Littell, RHP, Rays Adrian Houser, RHP, White Sox: His transformation has been a bit oversold. His surface numbers tell some kind lies. Still, he's intriguing; he'd deliver some stability at the back end of the Cubs' currently paper-thin rotation. They know him well, not only because Craig Counsell managed him in Milwaukee but because Houser finished last season with the Triple-A Iowa Cubs. Danny Coulombe, LHP, Twins John Schreiber, RHP, Royals: Two righty relievers in the middle of this list got significant bumps up on the basis of their roster flexibility. Schreiber is one. He can still be optioned to the minors, so though the team control isn't long-term and the sheer stuff is more seventh inning than ninth, he's a fantastic candidate to add to a team hoping that improved health will give them ample depth come September and October. Anthony Bender, RHP, Marlins: Bender is the other guy who gets the "still optionable" bump here. Both guys would have been in the 50s, anyway, but it's important to have the ability to shuttle fresh arms into the roster late in a season, with a close race on for the division crown. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Nationals Carlos Estévez, RHP, Royals: This is only the first year of a two-year deal worth $22 million, so if the Cubs do acquire him (likely as part of a Lugo or Bubic move), they'd want to make sure they weren't paying a premium in terms of talent. Dennis Santana, RHP, Pirates: Though less famous and less dominant than Bednar, Santana could be a tremendous pickup from Pittsburgh. He has a plus slider, and has figured out how to really fill up the zone over the last year and a half. He's under team control through 2026. Brock Burke, LHP, Angels Adolis García, OF, Rangers Michael Soroka, RHP, Nationals: I've consistently heard that the Cubs would have some interest in Soroka, at the right price. I wonder, though, if that was more true a few weeks ago, when he might have been an early move. Now, with Javier Assad getting ready to go back out on a rehab assignment, acquiring Soroka would feel almost like aiming too low. The Cubs are only likely to deal for one starter; they need to make it count. That said, the injury-prone Soroka has shown some really good stuff under the hood this year. Luis Robert Jr., OF, White Sox Phil Maton, RHP, Cardinals Andrew Kittredge, RHP, Orioles: Good stuff, a bit of interest from the Cubs this winter before he signed with Baltimore. The problem is, Kittredge would be yet another 35-year-old with recent injury stuff to worry about. The Cubs bullpen has enough of that already. Yoán Moncada, 3B, Angels: Health is the huge worry, of course. He's been healthy for a bit, now, though, and Moncada is raking this year. Amed Rosario, IF, Nationals JoJo Romero, LHP, Cardinals Gregory Soto, LHP, Orioles Jose Quintana, LHP, Brewers Nestor Cortes, LHP, Brewers: Yes, the best team in baseball also has two spare lefty starters they can trade you, if you need them. Taj Bradley, RHP, Rays: Tampa optioned Bradley to the minors Thursday. That's a somewhat surprising move, even amid an uneven season for him. It feels like a signal that they're ready to move on from him, and we know the Cubs have some level of interest. Pierce Johnson, RHP, That Team Near Atlanta: A former Cubs draftee, Johnson just keeps slinging that snarling curveball and getting people out with ruthless efficiency. The Cubs like him, but he's probably not even the second-most likely pitcher in that bullpen to end up witb Chicago. Jeffrey Springs, LHP, Athletics Dane Myers, OF, Marlins: Though already in his late 20s and more of a fourth outfielder than anything, Myers offers some tools and can stay under cheap team control for a while. He'd be an especially nice throw-in if the Cubs and Fish get together on a Cabrera trade. Randal Grichuk, OF, Diamondbacks Brock Stewart, RHP, Twins Kevin Ginkel, RHP, Diamondbacks: If Arizona is holding out fiercely for a player like Owen Caissie in talks for either Suárez or Kelly, don't be shocked if the Cubs finagle Ginkel as a second piece coming their way. Don't be fooled his hideous ERA this year, either. Ginkel still has a nasty slider and the skills to be a late-inning difference-maker. Sam Haggerty, OF, Rangers Seranthony Dominguez, RHP, Orioles JP Sears, LHP, Athletics Kyle Finnegan, RHP, Nationals: Why the Cubs didn't just sign Finnegan for around $7 million this winter, I'm really not sure. They liked him last July; they liked him this winter; they have circled back to Washington about him this July. He can be maddening to watch, with a hard but not bat-missing fastball and a splitter that makes many save opportunities long sweats, but he'd be a solid addition. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS, Pirates Jake Cronenworth, IF, Padres: This is a player who would be higher on the list, but for the fact that a team would have to take on his contract along with him and might find themselves needing to make some lateral move to make that work. He's a fine player, but he's 31 and under contract for five years beyond this one. Prellerism run amok. The Cubs would only take him on if it were part of a Cease deal, although if you believe he can still play a solid second base, he'd become a pretty interesting medium-term replacement for Hoerner. Wandy Peralta, LHP, Padres Tommy Pham, OF, Pirates Zach Eflin, RHP, Orioles Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Rich Men South of Richmond: This is one player whose name isn't out there in connection with the Cubs all that much, but about whom there's lots of chatter behind the scenes. He's something just this side of a reclamation project; the Cubs would just be trying to scoop him up without spending major prospect heft. Jorge Soler, DH/RF, Angels Josh Bell, 1B, Nationals Royce Lewis, 3B, Twins Michael A. Taylor, OF, White Sox: Another great clubhouse guy who'd also be a great defensive substitution or all-purpose backup to Pete Crow-Armstrong and company. Caleb Ferguson, LHP, Pirates Mike Tauchman, OF, White Sox Chris Paddack, RHP, Twins Tyler Kinley, RHP, Rockies Kenley Jansen, RHP, Angels Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates Miguel Andújar, 3B/DH, Athletics: His glove and legs are too leaden to make acquiring him to play in lieu of Matt Shaw viable. If the team wants just a bit more offensive depth from the right side, though, he could replace Vidal Bruján without anyone really noticing. Ramón Urías, 3B, Orioles Luis Rengifo, IF, Angels Austin Slater, OF, White Sox Enyel De Los Santos, RHP, The Team By the Highway: Going back two years, De Los Santos has popped up on the Cubs' radar multiple times. He's a very low-grade target, but if he shakes loose just when they have an opening, they might well decide to scoop him up this time. Luis Urías, 2B, Athletics Christian Vázquez, C, Twins Ty France, 1B, Twins Andrew Chafin, LHP, Nationals Aaron Civale, RHP, White Sox Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals Andrew Heaney, LHP, Pirates Jakob Junis, RHP, Guardians Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Angels Sean Newcomb, LHP, Athletics Tomoyuki Sugano, RHP, Orioles Luis García, RHP, Nationals Tyler Anderson, LHP, Angels Obviously, not all of these players will be traded. Heck, it's likely that fewer than half of them are traded. Less obviously, some players not named here—some dark horses—will be dealt. This is just a guide—a way to loosely gauge, when you hear a rumor or see the Cubs make a transaction, where in the world of potential transactions that one falls. View full article

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images Cubs "Strongly Prefer" Merrill Kelly to Zac Gallen The Diamondbacks are no longer walking the fence; they're likely to sell impending free agents over the next seven days. The Cubs are interested suitors, but while they'd be amenable to either at various costs, sources said the team would be more open to giving up what Arizona seems to want for Merrill Kelly than what they're asking for Zac Gallen. While Gallen's recent track record suggests a higher ceiling, the final two months of a fierce pennant race are a tough time to try to fix a struggling newcomer. Though less superficially impressive, Kelly has been consistently above-average, and he's struck out 24.2% of opposing batters this year. His underwhelming velocity is, obviously, not disqualifying for the Cubs, who remain one of the teams with the softest-tossing starters. There's also a sense that Kelly's style and recent adjustments better suit the Cubs' pitching philosophy, a source said, making him a more seamless potential addition to the rotation right away. What Would the Cubs Landing Dylan Cease Look Like? While it's a major longshot, there really is one possible sequence of moves that could bring Dylan Cease back to the organization that initially drafted him, sources with knowledge of teams' thinking say. The Chicago Cubs are interested in Cease, but at first blush, the fit between them and the San Diego Padres looks fraught. Both teams are contending in the National League, and in fact, they could end up going head-to-head in a Wild Card or Division Series this fall. Both have farm systems too thin and checkbooks too closely balanced to fill all their needs at this deadline without doing something creative, or something desperate. It would seem difficult for them to help each other out. However, sources who have played out the scenario say there's a narrow possibility of what would be a blockbuster series of moves by the Cubs. If Chicago could extract Eugenio Suárez from the Diamondbacks at a reasonable prospect cost, they might pivot and trade outfielder/DH Seiya Suzuki to San Diego for Cease and a prospect. That would be a shocking move, and it's very unlikely, but it gives an idea of what acquiring Cease might look like. The Padres need to either move Cease's money to free themselves up to make other improvements, or fill one of their key needs in the act of trading him. This would be the latter, as the team badly needs help in left field and Suzuki is having a terrific offensive season. Unlike Cease, he's also under contract for 2026. Suzuki makes more ($18 million) than Cease ($13.75 million) this year, and is owed another $18 million next season. The Cubs would need to include cash in the trade, or take on a second contract along with Cease, because San Diego's budget is inflexible. However, A.J. Preller is always interested in moves that net him a bit of extra team control, and his payroll headaches get a bit less severe this winter, with a handful of contracts expiring. For the Cubs, the upside of this double maneuver would be that acquiring Suárez would improve the lineup and make space for either Moisés Ballesteros or Owen Caissie to work into the mix, without blocking Matt Shaw. Shaw and either of the two young, left-handed bats would indirectly platoon with one another, with Suárez playing third against right-handed opposing starters and DH against left-handed ones. Meanwhile, the prospect included along with Cease would balance out the cost of trading from the farm system to land Suárez. Remember that, when the Cubs traded Mark Leiter Jr. last summer, they acquired Nate Pearson in a separate trade. They gave up Hunter Bigge in the deal that brought in Isaac Paredes, but in the Leiter trade, they got back Jack Neely. When they can, they like to balance present and future, whether they're buying or selling. General manager Carter Hawkins has emphasized the idea of allocating resources in certain directions while maintaining a present-future balance, rather than embracing the traditional idea of letting the future be degraded by the scramble to win now, one source said. This pair of moves would accomplish that, but of course, it's a difficult thing to do. The Cubs would be motivated by the massive increase in upside they'd get from adding Cease to their playoff rotation, but they'll have lots of competition for Suárez and the Padres might ultimately balk at what Chicago would demand in order to give up Suzuki for Cease. For what it's worth, Suzuki did list San Diego as one destination he would accept when the team talked to him about the possibility of a trade over the winter, sources confirmed. That doesn't automatically mean he would accept a deal in July, but that particular hurdle probably wouldn't be the one that thwarts a move. Cubs Have Checked in on Outfielders In the wake of a series in which Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker each missed a game with a sore knee, it's a bit clearer than it was before that the Cubs could use a bit more outfield depth. Because Suzuki has spent most of the season at DH and plays the outfield when he plays defense at all, the team didn't make a backup center fielder a priority this winter. Now, though, the team is quietly shopping for a supplemental piece in that vein. Sources said they checked in with the Twins on Willi Castro, but also on Harrison Bader. Castro has been a popular trade target on the Cubs-loving internet for some time, with a profile roughly similar to that of Vidal Bruján (switch-hitting utility man with speed, but inconsistent plate discipline) but much, much better (more power, especially). Bader, however, makes more sense than ever. Ian Happ's struggles this year make the notion of spelling him against some left-handed hurlers more appealing. Bader is also a direct potential platoon guy for Crow-Armstrong, who has an execrable .235 OBP against southpaws this year, and would be a good backup plan for Tucker, to boot. On a one-year deal worth roughly $6.5 million, Bader, 31, is hitting .251/.330/.435 this year, and he's added elite defense in his first extended time as a corner outfielder in the majors. Chicago could have competition for him from teams with more of an everyday need at that spot, but the fit is undeniable. Twins teammates and coaches, including and especially manager Rocco Baldelli, have also raved about Bader's role in the clubhouse. There's plenty of chatter behind the scenes, but so far, the trade deadline period has yielded no major action. It's hard not to feel like the Cubs are leaving it too late, especially since they play what could be a pivotal series against the Brewers in the days just before the deadline. For now, though, the team itself is trying to balance their ambitious ideas and the rising urgency of their needs with the understanding that being patient will probably yield the most helpful (or least regrettable) deals. When the dam breaks, they just need to be ready, and they're doing their best to lay all the groundwork needed for that. View full article

Image courtesy of © Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images If you want to know who anchors a team—who the truly revered and relied-upon leaders are—you can do a lot worse than simply walking into their clubhouse when they're on the road and looking around. Teams tend to organize themselves in particular ways, and clubhouse attendants assign lockers in ways that reflect very specific hierarchies. At Target Field, in Minneapolis, there's a standard set of stalls where the most respected or vital players on a visiting team go. In fact, it's a lot like that humorous image that gets passed around the internet every so often, stereotyping the criteria Little League coaches use to assign positions. You know this one? It's tongue-in-cheek, of course, but that meme captures a lot of truth. I can offer a similar key, if one wants to understand a big-league team's social dynamic, just by glancing around their clubhouse when they visit Minnesota. (Please forgive the roughness of the sketch; graphic design is not my passion.) As you enter the clubhouse, if you want to find the two players to whom the rest of the roster (and/or the organization, via the coaching staff and support staffers) shows deference and utmost respect, just look to your left and your right. For the 2015 Cubs, the two corner stalls to the right when one entered the clubhouse belonged to Jon Lester and David Ross. For the 2018 Rays, it was Charlie Morton and Sergio Romo. For the 2025 Brewers, it was Christian Yelich and Jose Quintana. These are guys the team wants the media to see and speak to, and who have (either written into their contract, or granted almost automatically because of how everyone feels about them) extra stalls and priority space in the room. To the left of the entrance, typically, is a player slightly less accomplished but equally tenured and respected. This was Todd Frazier, with the 2019 Mets. It's Rhys Hoskins on the 2025 Brewers. It was Wilson Ramos for those 2018 Rays. These are guys the team wants teammates to see, and not to be able to sneak past. For the 2025 Cubs, those highest-priority lockers in the corner by the entryway belonged to Justin Turner and Ryan Pressly, and the one to the left belonged to Drew Pomeranz. This is an unusually non-hierarchical clubhouse, in a way—or, perhaps more accurately, Turner, Pressly and Pomeranz are unusually commanding presences for relatively low-wattage on-field contributors. The near left corner, as you go in, is where you reliably find the guys who have earned pride of place and can take up multiple stalls, but whom the team relies on slightly less for vocal leadership. For the 2016 Mariners, that space belonged to Robinson Canó. For the 2019 Mets, it was Jacob deGrom and company. The 2025 Cubs put Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ there. That shouldn't lead you to think the team doesn't ask those guys to be leaders—indeed, usually that whole row if you turn left from the entrance is a set of trusted veterans, and this year's Cubs team went Pomeranz, Matthew Boyd, (a rehabbing) Jameson Taillon, Swanson and Happ down and around the corner. All of those guys have important roles to play, but the farther you get into that corner, the more the leadership is by example. Interestingly, this is where some teams slot in younger players they hope will grow into and embrace leadership roles, but the Cubs seem not to have felt any need to do so. Circling back to the spot just across from the big dogs' lockers in the corner, with the entrance to the players' lunch room between them, you find the guy everyone loves talking to. This was Tommy La Stella with the 2019 Angels and Chris Coghlan on the 2015 Cubs. It's often the backup catcher, including being Eric Haase for this year's Brewers. It's a place to put a communicator who naturally forms close friendships and is willing to reach across the subtle, sometimes troublesome positional (pitchers and hitters), racial, or linguistic divides that form in the room. For the 2025 Cubs, that locker belonged to Nico Hoerner. In that row next to Hoerner were Seiya Suzuki, Kyle Tucker, Jon Berti, Reese McGuire, Vidal Bruján and Carson Kelly. Starting next to Happ and extending to the back corner of the room up the left side were relievers Ethan Roberts, Brad Keller, Ryan Brasier, Caleb Thielbar, Daniel Palencia and Chris Flexen; starters Colin Rea, Shota Imanaga and Cade Horton; and then the younger position players on the roster, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw. As you can see, if you compare all those names I rattled off and their positions to the sketch above, this team largely hewed to the same schematic all teams use when they come to Minnesota. They're not organized differently; they're built differently, with a rare mix of personalities and veteran statuses. I tell you all of that, because I think it does matter. When the Cubs talk about being creative this month, and when we envision the moves they might make, they face different things to consider. It might be harder for this team to upgrade on the bench or the bullpen, because they have vested considerable power and influence in Turner, Pressly and Pomeranz. On the other hand, they don't have to worry as much about offending or displacing players like Happ or Suzuki as other teams might, because they're not treating them as vital pieces. Expect them to think of replacing Berti or Bruján, but not Turner. Expect them to be more ready to drop Brasier or Roberts than to cut bait on Pressly or Pomeranz. The most important underlying truth of a clubhouse like theirs is that it doesn't have just a few power centers. Leadership and baseball integrity are spread diffusely through the room, especially with Crow-Armstrong creating his own center of gravity in that regard in his back corner. You'd normally expect to find a player of Tucker's stature in one of those prime real estate areas, and the fact that they're not leaning on him for that kind of leadership says a lot about how deep they are in that regard. They can be as nimble as any club over the next eight days. It's just that they might be better-positioned to trade an apparently key contributor than most teams, while also being less willing to bump an apparently ancillary piece off the roster. View full article

Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-Imagn Images Top Cubs outfield prospect Owen Caissie is having the kind of month that liberates even the most blocked prospects. He had five hits Tuesday night in Louisville, including two doubles and a long home run. The latter was his 20th of the season, more than he hit all year in 2024. It was just the latest big night in a string of them recently. Since June 1, Caissie is batting .339/.436/.740, with 13 home runs. He's struck out just 25.5% of the time and walked in 13.4% of his plate appearances. That kind of hot streak isn't so much a hot streak, as a completed practicum on the desk of one's adviser. It's Graduation Day in the form of a stat line. That doesn't mean that Caissie has a bulletproof claim to future All-Star selections or MVP trophies, of course. He's not old, even for a prospect, but nor is he all that young for his level. He turned 23 earlier this month. He's nearing 900 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, and that's after spending an entire year at Double A, too. After a patient and lengthy apprenticeship, he's ready for the majors, but teams have consistently downgraded him slightly on two bases: The slow pace of his progress up the ladder; most top-100 prospects figure out a level and get the nod from their organization to be challenged at the next one faster than Caissie has. His strikeout rate. For much of his pro career, he's flirted with 30% strikeout rates, and when any hitter whiffs that often in the minors, teams (and their evaluation models) take notice. Again, though, Caissie's power is starting to show up so consistently that strikeouts can be a welcome price to pay. Just as importantly: he's striking out less often lately, and dramatically so. Despite the reservations so many scouts and analysts have had, then, Caissie's stock is on the rise. He's about to break into the major leagues, one way or another, and his performance lately (paired with a good overall track record and his scouting report) has him trending toward a new echelon of prospect value. Even a few weeks ago, Caissie was not a viable centerpiece in a major trade. Right now, he might be. From the Cubs' perspective, the timing couldn't be better. It wasn't (and isn't) just Caissie about whom other teams raised real questions in early trade discussions, and some of Jed Hoyer's top targets seemed like they could be out of reach. Now that Caissie has scouts talking in more glowing terms ("he's turned a corner down there," said one evaluator from an interested team after seeing him last week), he gets a different set of conversations started. The most interesting of those conversations centers around Edward Cabrera. The electric-armed Marlins righthander made his first start since July 11 on Tuesday night, after his elbow barked a bit in his final start before the All-Star break. The Cubs had a scouting presence in Miami to see him, and Cabrera was superb, holding the Padres to one run on five hits in 5 2/3 innings. He struck out six and did not issue a walk. Chicago covets Cabrera, whom one league source called a "priority target" for them. The Marlins have long been interested in Caissie, whom they almost acquired in a one-for-one deal that would have sent Jesús Luzardo to the Cubs this winter. Both teams ended up uneasy with the medicals in that deal, and they couldn't circle back to an agreement at the time, but sources said the relationship between the front offices was undamaged by the collapse of that transaction. Caissie still wouldn't be enough to land Cabrera on his own. Whereas Luzardo was just two years from free agency and was coming off an uneven season last winter, Cabrera has three years of control beyond this fall, and this has been his breakout campaign. He's also made some major changes this year, which help explain his surge in success and which we can break down in greater detail here if the Cubs do end up acquiring him. For now, suffice it to say that Cabrera's stock has risen, too, and that any deal for him would need to involve both Caissie and either Jefferson Rojas or Jaxon Wiggins. That's a hefty price, of course. All three of those players are within the top five on our current Cubs Top Prospects list, and giving up two such players in a deal is hard—especially when one of them is already on the doorstep of the majors. A month ago, though, Caissie would not have been a sufficient headliner for a package to acquire a player with Cabrera's mixture of recent track record and upside. That he now gets you a foot in the door is a mark of important progress. Since we're here, let's discuss a few other pitchers whom various sources say are on the Cubs' radar, along with Cabrera. The name of Rays starter Taj Bradley has popped up recently in some rumors, but all sources I talked to were skeptical that any move is forthcoming there. Tampa reliever Pete Fairbanks is a much more plausible target. As recently as this weekend, sources close to the situation indicated that there was momentum between the Cubs and the Royals regarding lefty Kris Bubic. Right now, though, the team is doing more background work and waiting to see what Bubic's next start looks like, after his velocity was down substantially in his first appearance of the second half. The Royals are another team who has been on the higher end with regard to Caissie, so if the Cubs want to make their dollar stretch on the trade market this summer, talking to both Kansas City and Miami about him makes sense. Of course, some fans will hope that Caissie's breakout keeps him with the team, rather than shuffling him out the door. With Kyle Tucker hitting free agency this fall, there's a chance the Cubs will need to replace him in the corner outfield mix next year, and Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ will both be free agents after 2026. Keeping Caissie would hedge some bets. If he stays hot and the right offer comes together, though, the safe bet is still that he's playing in the majors, somewhere other than Chicago, come mid-August. View full article

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images A little over three weeks ago, I made one of my occasional appearances on the excellent Wrigleyville Nation podcast. One thing I said during our conversation on that show was that if Ben Brown made another bulk appearance for the 2025 Cubs, it would mean something had gone horribly wrong. Monday night, they finally felt they could delay the inevitable no longer, and tried Brown again. Not only did they get blown out (thanks especially to Brown getting rocked by the historically inept Royals offense), but the Brewers won their late game, pushing Milwaukee into sole possession of first place for the first time this year. That was a fitting way for the transfer of power to happen. Ever since a day or two after I made that doomed pronouncement on the podcast, it's been increasingly clear that this would happen—the reemergence of Brown, in the wake of the injury Jameson Taillon suffered during between-starts work the same week of the aforementioned show, and the Brewers catching the Cubs. With Taillon down, keeping Brown away would have had to mean consistently starting Jordan Wicks or Chris Flexen until the team could find some reinforcement for the starting rotation. What they should have done, of course, was go get that reinforcement right away—and, to give the limited credit due in this case, they did try to do so. The Cubs have been one of the two or three most active teams in the league in terms of trade discussions, sources in front offices throughout the game agree, and that's been true since the beginning of this month—even while other clubs were more focused on the MLB Draft and were somewhat hard to engage. Nonetheless, the team's failure to get anything done reflects two real problems—one very specific, and thus relatively small, for it can't last any longer; and one very general, very big, and very troubling. The small, specific problem that's almost done being one is the misgiven confidence the organization has had in Brown as a starter. He won the fifth starter job over Colin Rea during spring, when he shouldn't have. He has been given more chances than either his performance or his arsenal merits, and because they were unduly confident in him, they didn't go and reinforce their starting depth in a meaningful way after Javier Assad and Justin Steele (then Shota Imanaga) got hurt early in the season. While the Brewers were making a sagacious little move to pick up Quinn Priester, the Cubs were still rolling loaded, snake-eyed dice on Brown and his two pitches—one of which just isn't very good, except in an aesthetic sense. Happily, they can't persist in that particular delusion any longer. Brown was farmed out to Iowa with a 6.13 ERA in 16 appearances and almost 80 innings. After a month's reset during which he only pitched in two games, he came back to the majors and watched that number rise to 6.48. His trade value is regrettably shot, but the team will surely wise up and move him to the bullpen (probably with another stint in Iowa to acclimate to that role) or throw him into a trade over the next nine days. It was foolish to have come into this season so ready to give him the ball for extended outings, but that error has become such a searing wound that it will probably cauterize itself. The much bigger problem, and the one that doesn't appear as easy to fix, is that Jed Hoyer (and, to some extent, the ownership and business operations staff supporting him) is bad at acknowledging when they're in a position of weakness and resigning themselves to making deals without leverage. Hoyer is so value-focused that he misses opportunities to make the team better, not once or twice a year, but six or seven times. We saw the team hold onto Willson Contreras at the 2022 trade deadline, rather than take the best deal they could make for him. We've seen them pull out of multiple trades based on medicals or final details (going all the way back to Hoyer's first offseason in charge, when a trade that would have sent Kris Bryant to the Mets was scrapped at the last second, and coming forward to this past offseason, when two different deals for young starters fell apart). We've seen Hoyer fail to manage upward and gain the flexibility needed to finish contracts for (among others) Alex Bregman and Tanner Scott, and fail in his capacity as a salesman to win over those players on the terms his bosses did authorize. Never for a moment would the Cubs have considered giving up what the Brewers did for Priester. They didn't have a tradeable draft pick, anyway, but that's not really the point. Milwaukee was in a tough situation, and when they got Priester from the Red Sox, most of the baseball world raised an eyebrow. Especially devoted Brewers fans nearly raised torches and pitchforks; the trade felt like an overpay. Firstly, though, the team badly needed some kind of competent starting pitching help. And secondly, they had chosen their target carefully, and they rapidly finished his development even while running him out every fifth game as a starter. Scouting, player development, and an aggressive, decisive executive netted the team a pitcher who has already given them 95 innings of a 3.33 ERA and is under team control through 2030. That Hoyer won't overpay, ever, is why the Cubs are in second place, and why they gave the ball to Brown again (behind the thin cover of an opener) on the night when they dropped from the top of the Central. It has to change, and fast, because the Cubs are in a position of weakness now. Nine days from the trade deadline, they're playing from behind, and the team they're chasing is hotter, deeper, and more well-rounded than they are. Chicago needs to make a major upgrade, and yes, Hoyer will have to overpay for it. Whether he has the stomach for that remains to be seen. What happens when he shies away from taking the necessary risks involved in running a winning team, we just saw. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images The moment when Cade Horton's potential first jumped up a level came last year with Triple-A Iowa, when he first began to find the changeup he now sports in the majors. Even by his own reckoning, though, the pivotal moment for him came when he found that he could trust that pitch against big-league bats, last month in Miami. "I thought it was in a good place in Triple A, and then got here, and it was really the Miami start where I got a good feel for it," Horton said earlier this month, during the Cubs' trip to Minnesota. "From there, it's just kind of taken off, to where I'm able to repeat that pitch. It's been huge for me." Since then, that pitch has been a staple in Horton's arsenal to lefties, and it hasn't stopped dominating opposing batters. On the contrary: an eye-popping 59.6% of swings at the pitch have come up empty. The changeup was virtually non-existent when the Cubs drafted Horton in the first round of the 2022 MLB Draft, but now, it's a vital weapon. Did that change how he has to think about himself as a pitcher, and how he operates? "Not necessarily. I think it's more, I just use the changeup more to lefties," he said. Indeed, 112 of the 116 he's thrown in the majors have been to left-handed batters; he's not (yet) the type of hurler who will go to the changeup right-on-right. "So that's been the big key, is being able to have that pitch that runs away from them. That opens up fastballs in and fastballs away. The slider's more for righties, and that's why I've been working on the sinker and trying to set up the pitch away from them." In other words, Horton prefers to use his fledgling sinker to attack righties inside, setting up the slider. The changeup, coming from his high three-quarters slot and with his natural tendency to supinate (the direction of forearm movement that better facilitates breaking balls, rather than arm-side movement), has more run than tumble, which makes it the type of change that's harder to throw with conviction to same-handed batters. As Horton alluded to, his slider (Statcast, as shown above, labels most of those as sweepers, but the ones labeled sweeper and slider are both what Horton calls his slider) is the go-to pitch against righties. However, he's not kidding around when it comes to making the sinker a meaningful part of his arsenal to them. In two starts this month, the sinker has emerged as a key third pitch to righties, with his fastball becoming less predominant. He's had to do that, of course, because his fastball isn't a traditional four-seamer at all. It's much closer to being a power cutter—and indeed, some classification systems call it one. Horton didn't set out to create this type of heater, but now that he has one, he understands the value of steering the sinker in on righties to set up both the fastball and the slider away. "I think it just naturally happened," Horton said of his change in fastball shape, which happened after the Cubs selected and signed him but isn't the product of conscious pitch design. "Just getting around the ball more and creating that cut action—which I don't think is a bad thing. I think it plays against lefties, and then it runs off the barrel to righties." The fascinating thing is that, now that he has the changeup (and his curveball, which stands in for the slider against lefties), he offers three different looks to hitters of each type—but they all come from one basic spin axis. Horton's changeup, sinker and slider each rely on considerable seam-shifted wake. They start on similar spin-based movement paths as his four-seamer and curve, but are deflected based on the orientation of the seams and the action of the air on the ball. The chart above shows, on the left, initial spin direction, meaning what the pitcher actually imparts on the ball. Bars at the top of the clock graphic indicate the frequency of pitches thrown with backspin, which will "rise" (drop less than gravity would normally dictate) en route to the plate. Bars at the bottom show the frequency of pitches with topspin, like a true overhand curveball. Bars on the nine o'clock side show the frequency of pitches whose spin would push them toward the first-base side of the plate, away from a righty batter; bars on the three o'clock side show the frequency of those with spin pushing them toward a righty batter. On the right, instead of spin direction, we see the actual movement direction of pitches. The difference between the two is explained by seam effects. Notice how, on the left, Horton's pitches cluster mostly around the 12:30 and 7:30 parts of the clock. That means that it's relatively hard for hitters to distinguish even between, say, his four-seamer and his slider, because they enjoy "spin mirroring"—the ball is spinning along very close to the same axis, so even though the directions of spin on the two offerings are opposites, it's hard to see the difference. A change in spin axis can make a visual difference for a batter, but telling which direction a ball is spinning along a similar axis is very hard. Compounding that difficulty, though, is that Horton also has pitches that diverge from each other in ways spin can't explain. Thus, even for a lefty batter (who rarely sees the slider and only needs to worry about the curve), there are mutliple layers of trouble. He could be throwing the fastball or the curve, and spin mirroring would make it hard to tell which. He could also be throwing the changeup, and because it has a similar spin axis to the fastball (and a near-identical arm angle; Horton has worked hard to match release points on those two offerings) and the two pitches veer opposite directions due to release angle and seam effects, they end up in very different spots. That's how you miss bats with your changeup almost 60% of the time, without elite movement on the pitch. The slider is an especially nasty version of the same problem, because for a righty, it's like dealing with the curveball problem and the changeup problem for lefties, rolled into one pitch. It's shielded by spin mirroring, especially now that he has the sinker working, but it also has the seam-effect sweep that mirrors the changeup's run. Unlike the changeup or the fastball shape, the slider has been like this since Horton was an amateur. "It's kind of always been that way," he said. "I don't think too much about metrics. I think more about executing a pitch. I know where my slider works, and it's down and away, so it's just about executing to that spot." That's really what it comes down to, for him. He's only gotten hurt in the majors when he's made mistakes over the heart of the plate. With that blooming movement spread from such a tricky set of spin orientations, he's one of the game's more deceptive hurlers, and he also happens to throw 96-98 with life on the fastball. "It's just all about executing: Where are my misses? The hits I'm giving up, where are the fastballs?" he said. To him, the next step is simply to eliminate those, and to continue honing his feel for putting batters away with the heater. "Just execution. Two-strike execution is big, maybe getting to the top of the zone, making quality pitches." Over time, if he can sharpen his command a bit, Horton could jump another level and become an ace by learning to use all of his pitches to both left- and right-handed batters in certain situations. For now, though, if he can avoid the worst of the missed locations he's had over his first two and a half months in the majors, he can be a solid mid-rotation starter on a playoff-bound Cubs team. For a rookie, that's plenty. View full article