thawv
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Everything posted by thawv
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CC said that Jed called him on Nov 1st, which was the first day he was a FA. He didn't answer and called him back. They met that same day. He went and talked to Cle and the Mets after that. He came back and liked the Cubs job much better. He said that staying near Milwaukee was only a contributing factor.
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Or even Japan!
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I think Logan would cost PCA plus a Mervis type. Young, really good, cheap, and controlled goes a long way. But is PCA considered a "bat" yet? It's going to be quite awhile until we know how he is as a major league hitter. But, great explanation how how Gilbert may have been deduced as a trade piece.
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What did I miss?? Why is Gilbert mentioned in trade conversations. That just doesn't seem like a guy Seattle would trade. No?
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You're right, but if they're concerned about the higher penalties, they probably wouldn't do that. I think they should if they want to win a WS. The penalties shouldn't be something that prevents them from trying to win a WS. But I'm sure it will. The penalty is 20% up to 257...32% up to 277...62.5% up to 297...80% after that. I also understand that if the go to 290 lets say, the penalty for that would be an additional 8.125 million. So at the end of the day, not knowing what their budget is, we have no idea what their plans are. I chose the 3rd level because I don't think they want to pay an extra 62.5% in penalties. So, if the go to the 2nd level, they would pay, 4 million in penalties. If they got to the 3rd level, they would pay an additional 6.4 million. If the went up to the 4th level, they would pay an additional 12.5 million. So, for the sake of this conversation, if they went to 297 million, they would pay 22.9 million in penalties, bringing the payroll up to almost 320 million. I could be wrong, but this just doesn't sound like something the Cubs would do. I hope that I'm wrong.
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I think that the goal should be to get to 277 million this year. Drop 50 million after next year and they are 14 million under. It might not be that easy, but they have guys on payroll to figure that out.
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It's pretty clear that if they want to compete for the WS this season, they are going to blow by the 237 number. They likely have a budget of 257 without signing Ohtani, and 277 with signing him. To leave some extra room for deadlines, I'd expect the Cubs to spend 65-85 million this off season. I wouldn't be surprised if they spent up to 85 million without signing Ohtani.
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Exactly this. How many middle of the row relievers do we want to carry in the system?
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I would go with Ace pitcher Lock down closer First base/DH Bull pen Third base/DH DH Not worried at all about CF. If they choose to leave PCA in AAA on OD, Canario and Tauchman can certainly hold the fort down. For me, Canario as the main guy.
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Morel to somehow manage to figure out how to be an average third baseman would be such a shot in the arm! That's the ideal situation over there. The Cubs, or any other MLB reportedly have noe say so what the DR teams do in this league. I guess the team can request something, but it's now clear that they do what they want. The Cubs supposedly wanted him at 1B, and the "rumor" was, "Morel to play 1B during winter ball." Well it's not happening. Just last week he's played, SS, LF, 1B, 3B. They are clearly playing him where they need him each day. But I digress. The best thing for the Cubs is if he can play 3B. But by playing a guy that's never played the position before ahead of Morel, who has logged almost 1500 innings there, seems like they gave up on the idea. Maybe the idea of Morel at 3B can be resurrected?
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It may be, but they will struggle to be any more than they were last year if they don't go to the 2nd level. And if O's in the mix, they have to go to the 3rd level. This isn't going to happen but if Stroman and Belli both came back, it would cost them 40-45 million, and they are the same team. They have a lot of holes to fill. I know that they ALL shouldn't be filled in the FA market, but this is the year when they have to sign star players. Especially with young, cheap player knocking at the door.
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This is so true! I knew a guy that worked at the sports book at the Riviera. He said that everybody that comes to Vegas from Chicago makes a bet on them. The odds are always lower because of that.
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As of right now, the Cubs are favorite to win the central, and 6th favorite to win the NL pennant. Vegas knows they are going to be strong this year.
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I'm surprised! He's coming off an 8/25 deal. It took him 4 years when he was younger to make what he's going to make in one year when he's older. He'll give them about 40 starts over 2 years. I'm usually low because teams usually over pay for FA due to bidding. I just don't see that here. I was thinking somewhere in the 2/12 or 2/14 range. And honestly, I would have been more comfortable with a 1/8 deal. I think that 2 WAR over 2 years is likely. It's too early in the game to give him a guaranteed 2nd year. He's a BOTR pitcher.
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I was a little off. I am using Cot's. They have their taxe number at about 185 right now. After the season, they have it at a little under 113 mil. But after actually looking at it, they don't have the arb numbers in it. But they are still in a position to go way over
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You have to understand that money is not an issue this season. According to Jed, they've been "rolling over" unspent money. And you can guarantee it's for this year. Now is the time to unload the pocket book, and go back under next year. Ohtani will just be one of many moves this off season. It's not Ohtani and nothing else. That's not happening.
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I could not disagree more with this line of thinking. This is the exact time to go after Ohtani. From a baseball standpoint, and a business standpoint. They are favorites at this very moment win the central. The CBT means nothing this year. You can count on getting close to 277 if they sign Ohtani. It doesn't matter if you sign FA's first and then call up prospects or trade for major league players, or call them up and then sign FA's. You can take it to the bank that they will be well over the threshold this year. And pushing the 3rd level if they sign O. They are dropping 75 million next season. They will go over this year. And by a lot. Signing Ohtani is not going to limit anything in the future. He will more than pay for his contact.
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The question that's not being asked is, how long does Ohtani want to play for? Does he want to play in to his mid 30's, or his early 40's? We've heard he would take a short term deal with opt outs, and we've seen 12 year speculations. But we don't have any idea. This is not a prediction because I don't know the length of the deal, but if he was to do 8 years, I think that 384 million is realistic. That's 48 million a year for a long term contract.
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He's being sarcastic because of all the crap being posted about Ohtani. The cost or the middle of the country is the whole country. Hahaha
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How do you know how many followers the has?
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I just don't see him as "that guy" moving forward without having better stuff, and more stuff then what he has.
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He's been in the system since 2014. He's shown nothing until they called him up in 2021 and join the pen with 9 starts. He throws 2 pitches 100% of the time. He's not over powering either. He just pitched over 100 innings for the first time in his life in 2022. Last year he hit a wall his last several starts. To me, he just doesn't have TOTR stuff. I still think his ceiling is a #3
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Not to split hairs, but Strider throws 97, and Steele throws 92. Steele throws 2 pitches essentially 100% of the time. Strider at least mixes in another pitch 10% of the time. But I do get your point.
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We know that Glasnow is gone. Diaz is exactly what we need. In order to get Diaz, and we had to take on Glasnow's 25 million, it would cost a Steele, or a PCA + to get it done. I'd rather it be Steele in order to get Diaz. My assumption is that they are going to add an ace pitcher regardless if they add Glasnow or not. Horton will take Glasnow's spot. The ace pitcher will still be there after next season. Any back of the rotation guy can fill Kyle's spot, if they had a very good 1-2 punch. I honestly don't have the faith in a two pitch pitcher to have continued success. I really do see him having a ceiling of a #3 The big move here is to get Diaz.
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I'm going to add to this. Glasnow and Diaz for Steele and Mervis? Diaz is 8 million AAV for 2 more years, and it gives the Cubs a couple of years to figure out a long term solution internally. I'm not really sold on Steele as anything more than a #3 at best anyway.
