Its not about thinking for myself...
Like I said you can look at it your way and use the tie breaker or you can play along with the whole magic number way of doing it.
It doesn't consider tie breakers, it just goes by how many games can be won by the non playoff teams.
So, the OP who posted 13, he was technically right in the spirit of using the magic number way of elimination.
Its 12 now, Cubs can win 6 in a row and Padres can lose 6 in a row and its over, and that SD AZ series and the tie breaker means nothing to the Cubs.