Bertz

Just looking for clarification: What are we...not pretending...he actually is? He's a solidly above average player on a nice contract, while most indications have been that the Royals want a star type return for him. Could be just simple Negotiating 101, but if it's not the two teams are not going to be able to match up.

He really is an absolutely perfect fit for the roster. The problem is paying a price reflective of what he actually is rather than what the Royals want to pretend he is.

From Ken Rosenthal's latest notes column in The Athletic: There was a belief a few years back that ~7 years after TJ surgery your new UCL was pretty likely to go poof. Turns out if your elbow survives a few seasons after coming back you're basically in the clear.

Yeah, that's why I brought it up. It's a nice microcosm of his career - periphs that hang in there to give the presentable or better FIP, an ERA above the FIP, and nothing in there to really believe some force of nature was working against him or anything to get the end result...I think there's worse ways to spend $10.5 million for sure but also don't think he is a slam dunk impact guy for 2020 who must be kept otherwise we're in a hole...More optimistic about Lester making the adjustments Entering 2019 Quintana had a 3.60 ERA and a 3.63 FIP across 1300 innings.

When you hear hoofbeats think horses, not Zebras. There's certainly a chance that in August Jose Quintana suddenly turned into Edwin Jackson. The far more likely explanation is that he's a pitcher that got BABIPed for 6 weeks. In either direction, good or bad, you shouldn't expect a pitcher is going to diverge significantly from their FIP until you have years of evidence. I mean just look at Jon Lester.

I actually mostly agree with the bold. There are particular examples that make sense (TT's Dinelson Lamet hypothetical for instance), but broadly I think Q is in the Schwarber zone where he has surplus value but not a horsefeathers-load and so you're unlikely to net enough future value to offset the 2020 dropoff. And his salary is in a weird spot where $11M doesn't buy you *that* much. It's like you could probably, for example, do Q to the Phillies for Seranthony Dominguez and backfill Q with a Kyle Gibson...but is that actually an upgrade? Or are we just rearranging deck chairs?

Your mileage may vary, but I think Travis D'Arnaud and Yan Gomes fit into this cohort as well. D'Arnaud is actually my favorite since he's the best contact guy of the group and huge a lefty killer, so there's a very natural playing time decision between him and Vic.

Good for maximizing our return on a Willson trade, and good as a bellwether for the free agent market. Bad obviously for the hope of us doing a cool "trade Willson for awesome stuff and still come out the other end better at catcher" scenario.

Enough Sarris has a great article on Akiyama and Tsutsugo in the Athletic today. I don't want to crib too much, but Eno translated Akiyama's numbers from Japan last year and got a .298/368/.411 line with a K rate of less than 13%, and compares pretty closely with Adam Eaton and Nick Markakis.

Giambrone's probably safe. The weirdness from the ball certainly makes evaluation tougher for us on the outside, but he was not great last year. That being said with the extra roster spot and to your point a few teams just completely devoid of talent it's a lot harder to say. Mekkes certainly looks like an option to go. The two things that help are 1) he was kind of a disaster down the stretch last year and 2) the upside (a Darren O'Day/Steve Cishek type) isn't all that high. Teams often go either for guys who can step in and help on day one or electric arms that they can dream on. Mekkes might be in between enough to be safe.

https://twitter.com/WContreras40/statuses/1197339632469512193 Probably just happy for his little brother, but worth keeping an eye on

These are in addition to Colin Rea about a week ago. I'm surprised at no catcher being added, and figured Mekkes would have been first choice out of the relievers, but nothing here is particularly crazy.

I liked Martin the most of the mid level FA bullpen arms, but that being said after Will Smith no reliever on the FA market this year was particularly notable. This may be a good sign for the market though. The last two years relievers signed way before everyone else, but even that was a week or two into December. If we're a few weeks ahead of the last two winters hopefully that pace keeps up.

Sounds like he's a bad infielder and a below average but playable corner outfielder. So I'd imagine it would work like having Castellanos on the roster, except he'd have to push others for PT rather than being an everyday guy from jump. It's probably not how I'd construct the roster, but if the FO thinks he's an impact bat and the market's undervaluing him I understand adding this particular square peg. And hell, the Brewers were able to make Ryan Braun, Eric Thames, and Jesus Aguilar all work on a 25 man roster for the better part of the last two years; with the extra bench spot in 2020 it should be that much easier.

Interesting. Like Brett says I doubt it's the pitcher, as adding a third swingman with no minor league options to the roster seems....suboptimal. Kikuchi seems unlikely but could make sense depending on the makeup of the rest of the bench. So that likel leaves Tsutsugo. He gets compared frequently to Schwarber, so backfilling after a Kyle trade is possible. It's also possible they just like his bat and will make it work like they did with Castellanos. It's even more palatable with the extra bench spot in 2020. A bench of: Vic Happ (as the backup CF) Bote Tsutsugo TBD 2B Option (Nico eventually starting there) Would rock. It lacks the defensive minded backup CF option you'd probably like, but otherwise checks all the boxes.

It's not hard to see how a guy with Shogo's profile can flame out (just look at Jon Jay), but man I'm gonna be real ticked if we pass on him at 3/15.

Good contact, good D, hits lefties well...he's what Almora is supposed to be basically. Certainly not a guy you pencil in as a starter (though young enough it could still happen), but the OF is inevitably gonna have a bunch of platoons/timeshares in 2020 and he complements the current group well.

I do expect that we see some activity earlier this year. I think the broad strokes of the offseason is likely to be: 1. Trade Willson for pitching 2. Use FA and/or small trades to complement the primary group of position players 3. Possible additional pitching moves Because these tracks are largely independent, and because we are not shopping at the top of the market. I see no reason to not expect activity before or during the winter meetings. On the flipside Contreras might not be traded for *just* pitching (e.g. Manuel Margot), so it could still muk things up. Also, if a KB trade is legitimately being explored, that DEFINITELY holds everything else up.

The team has probably ~7 spots they can use to protect guys, so the decision on Mekkes will be tight. Based on this article from Arizona Phil a couple weeks ago, and subsequent decisions on Q, Graveman, and Webster, I believe we're at 31 spots filled right now https://www.thecubreporter.com/10062019/projected-cubs-post-2019-world-series-roster Russell's a safe bet to go, which brings us to 30. I'd imagine the team adds 3 net new guys to the roster over the offseason (1 pitcher and 2 position players). There's likely to be more than that, but anything additional would have an offsetting move off the roster. That means 7 guys get protected: - Amaya is a 100% lock - Rea and Miller seem very likely, I'd say ~90% - Johnny Pereda seems likely to take the Taylor Davis emergency catcher role. PJ Higgins has a shot as a more offensive minded alternative - Zack Short and Trent Giambrone both seem unlikely but not ridiculously so - Mekkes, Minch, and Swarmer are the reliever options under consideration, I imagine in that order - They may also want to leave a spot open to play the roster crunch game, like with Ian Clarkin last winter So with all that said, I'd guess they keep him, but it's probably ~60/40. There may also only be 6 spots to play with. I do not expect both Mills and Chatwood to make it to ST. If the plan is to keep both, that's one fewer spot to play with. However, we could also add a spot by dumping Almora. Speaking of Almora, I would keep him. It seems given the market that we're not ultimately going to bring in a slam dunk everyday guy for CF. We're likely going to head into the season with Happ and TBD fighting for the role, with Heyward and Nico as depth options. Given that, I think we want to have as many rolls of the dice as possible, and having Almora hanging out at Iowa would be prudent. The Iowa outfield is a travesty anyway so it's not like he's blocking anyone. Unless his ~2m is really the difference in making another move there's no reason not to keep him and hope that putting him on the Ian Happ plan can't get him back to at least being a useful bench guy.

Goldstein is not just some red shirt who's famous on baseball internet, he's the director of pro scouting

A week ago I assumed their punishment was gonna be in the neighborhood of the Cards' hacking scandal. A few days ago I wondered if we might see similar to the Braves' IFA scandal. Now? I wonder if that might be the floor.

Really good article on taking a more proactive and scientific approach to player rest in the Athletic: https://theathletic.com/1372051/2019/11/15/sarris-could-we-see-more-load-management-in-baseball-what-the-sport-might-learn-from-the-nba/ Guessing that, in addition to their obvious failures the last 2-3 years, this is why the medical staff was just turned over.

That former high ranking MLB executive is definitely just Ralph

Xander Bogaerts is probably the closest comp, and he got 6/120 last winter. That being said he was a year younger, a little better, and a year closer to FA, so maybe more like 6/100?