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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I just came here to say the exact same thing
  2. Bertz
    I'd guess it's just those 6, but as starters Stro, Sampson, and Elias each go two?
  3. Bertz
  4. Bertz
    Yeah, count me in as a pitch clock fan
  5. Bertz
  6. Bertz
    It's possible this is true, but I personally have not heard it from anyone but bears fans I listen to a lot of sports radio. I have no idea if there's a tweet out there that said it, but Matt Miller, for one, said on the Score that he'd have Fields #1 in this draft, easily. This is the closest I can find to proof of that in under 30 seconds. I can vouch for having heard Nate Tice say it too on a podcast. (calling him an NFL scout is a stretch) Matt Miller definitely said it in writing too
  7. Bertz
  8. Bertz
    I'm going to be such a sucker for any positive news about Bellinger. I know it's overly reductive but it really feels like he's the key cog on the position player side. If he throws up a 120ish wRC+ it drastically changes the complexion of the lineup. Like here's a sample lineup, with everyone at their projected wRC+s plus that bump for Bellinger: LF - Happ (113) RF - Suzuki (131) SS - Swanson (108) CF - Bellinger (120) DH - Mancini (106) 1B - Hosmer (108) 3B - Wisdom (101) or Morel (99) 2B - Hoerner (104) C - Gomes (90)
  9. Bertz
    Depending on your perspective either a very fun or very depressing surprise at #32
  10. Bertz
    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?type=player&year=2022&minThrows=100&pos=arm_2b&team= 5 guys last year had worse arms than Madrigal at 2B and also played a meaningful amount at 3rd: DJ Lemahieu Wilmer Flores Josh Harrison Brandon Drury Jon Berti Lemahieu, Harrison, and Berti played well at 3rd, Flores was okay, and Drury sucked. Expanding the sample a bit, Brendan Donavan (good at 3B) and Max Muncy (bad at 3B) throw only smidge harder than Madrigal.
  11. Bertz
    BA released the remainder of their top 30 today: 11. Wicks 12. Canario 13. Caissie 14. Palencia 15. Ferris 16. Ballesteros 17. Herz 18. Triantos 19. Piñango 20. Assad 21. Made 22. Hodge 23. Hill 24. Strumpf 25. Aliendo 26. Devers 27. P. Ramírez 28. Sanders 29. Franklin 30. R. Thompson
  12. Bertz
    It would be really nice if Kilian's issues in the second half last year could just be nestly chalked up to that knee injury.
  13. Bertz
    Wisdom’s low WAR last year was largely due to his defense that graded very poorly and swung pretty wildly away from his previous relatively decent grades, as defensive metrics sometimes do. I think he’s a better defensive player than what the metrics showed last year, and is probably closer to a 2 to 2.5 WAR player. He also really rushed back from that finger sprain late in the year. He had a 111 wRC+ when he went on the IL in August, and had a 54 from when he came back through the end of the year. That is one of the things I'm hoping that this year's team can avoid doing and help hit their 70th or 80th percentile outcome. Between a versatile bench and the fairly loaded Iowa club, the team can go three deep essentially everywhere. That *should* allow them to put guys right on the IL after they tweak something, and at the same time not rely on the #2 guy on the depth chart to be an ironman while the first guy's out.
  14. Bertz
    I wouldn't be especially shocked if Bote got back to quality bench material now that he's another offseason removed from his injury. But RHH infielder without elite defense is a pretty crowded field in this org, and the 40 man situation gives him another hurdle to overcome. Rios is probably the favorite for that last bench spot, but we shouldn't be especially shocked with anybody ending up with it.
  15. Bertz
    Do we think contacts/improved vision can help with throwing strikes or is this (pun intended) just eyewash?
  16. Bertz
    Eric mentioned a little while back that he had Davis as a 45+. That's basically where he parks guys who are a 50 or more on talent but have really elevated risk in their profiles.
  17. Bertz
    I don't know his exact methodology (Wicks feels way too high for being on only one list?), but still an interesting look at an aggregate of the various rankings.
  18. Bertz
    PCA at 14 (!!!) Alcantara at 73 Wesneski at 88 Hernandez at 100 We already knew from other notes that Caissie and Davis dropped, but not a surprise looks like Triantos did as well.
  19. Bertz
    I was pretty sure it was the plan already, but woo boy seeing that spending every 3rd year resetting the LT is explicitly and publicly part of the plan even in the best case scenarios is not great.
  20. Bertz
    This is pretty in the weeds, but basically Eno Sarris and team built a projection system using their Pitching+ metrics. Stuff+ is basically a measure of a pitcher's pitch qualities based on things like their velo, spin, etc., while Pitching+ also folds in location/command. It's interesting because it is completely independent of ball in play luck or anything like that, I believe the only results based metric that goes into it is swinging strike rate by pitch type. Because it focuses more on process than results, it stabilizes really quickly, often just a couple of starts. Overall, the results are pretty positive for the Cubs. Here's how guys' ERAs from this system compare to what's currently projected on Fangraphs Taillon: 3.91 PP / 4.20 FG Stroman: 3.71 PP / 3.80 FG Steele: 3.82 PP / 3.78 FG Wesneski: 4.02 PP / 4.56 FG Thompson: 4.15 PP / 4.15 FG Alzolay: 3.65 PP / 3.86 FG Smyly: 4.49 PP / 4.55 FG Hendricks: 5.01 PP / 4.61 FG Kilian: 4.26 PP / 4.15 FG That's nice lift for Taillon, a huge lift for Wesneski, and some other more modest gains elsewhere. Hendricks is pretty much the only pitcher who looks way worse by this methodology.
  21. Bertz
  22. Bertz
    Sampson's fastball is exactly one MPH below the league average for a SP, so any extra velo he could wring out of his arm would be pretty impactful.
  23. Bertz
    It'd be really cool if Cam started having a weapon against lefties
  24. Bertz
    Includes a bit about why the Yankees, who are all in on the sweeper, didn't already try this if it's such a good idea:
  25. Bertz
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