Bertz

A LOT of things have gone wrong this year, but as far as the team's future outlook goes Nico's seeming star turn outweighs many of them combined.

Down in South Bend, Kohl Franklin is so snakebitten that (judging from GameDay) he's actually pitching decently for once but is still getting BABIP'd into oblivion

I believe ~half of minor league parks have Statcast installed, and you can scrape data from the Baseball Savant website. And it's I think league by league, so like the PCL has it but the International League doesn't. I'd imagine the big boys like FG and BR won't spend the effort building out a process to add the data until it's available for all or at least most games. So what you've got now I believe is either sourced from teams, or is fairly piecemeal. Like I'm pretty sure Eno Sarris did a "best Stuff+ ratings in the PCL" article a bit ago, and the reason it was just the PCL was clearly the limits on data availability. Contact rate is an annoying thing that we should have though. FG has swinging strike rate available, so like the raw data should be there for contact rate.

Oh this is much much better!

Bote up Nelly down presumably tomorrow. Bote is on the 60 Day IL so there'll be a DFA as well (Leiter?).

I love his LH swing. Up to .240/.340/..407. And like a lot of guys in the system he had a pretty terrible April to dig his way out of. Don't look at the pitching down on the farm today though

Steele actually holding his velo into the middle innings is promising. Like TT has pointed out the data is looking better and better on his front. I've been reticent to jump on the bandwagon because his fastball is usually like 88-89 by the 100 pitch mark, but if he's holding deeper into starts (be it for weather, conditioning, whatever), that alleviates many of my concerns.

I'm getting on a bit of a reverse jinx hot streak

Steele has been dong-lucky this year, so I'm fine with the dongs but don't love that he hasn't yet struck anyone out the 2nd time through the order here

I'm increasingly wondering if an Ian Happ trade or non-trade will be the canary in the coal mine for what to expect this winter. If Jed's planning to build a "aim for 82 wins and hope for the best" type squad next year, there's not really much reason to hold onto a premium left fielder. Especially with how much of the funnest parts of the farm are outfielders who will potentially start being on the MLB radar late next year. But if the plan is to actually start to try next year, it's hard to see dumpimg a guy who projects north of 3 WAR, no matter how low on the defensive spectrum he lies. Even if you think he's replaceable, you're at least doubling his salary to do so, and while the books are fairly clean they're not *that* clean. Also of the good players on the roster, he's probably the safest. Like while each of Hoerner, Happ, and Seiya project between 3-3.5 WAR, Hoerner's injuries and Seiya's lack of MLB track record give them considerably more downside risk. It's not definitive, again scarcity at 1B and LF aren't quite the same as other positions. There may also be Happ-specific things the org doesn't love, like they don't buy his slashed K-rate, but I think this will be the biggest data point for what to expect over the winter. Even moreso than how MLB-adjacent the returns for Willson and Robertson are.

I'll be a bit of a wet blanket here and say I'm still not to Steele levels of optimism with Thompson yet. Even in his better run as a starter he's still getting tagged for XBH with high frequency(last 7 GS: 31 IP, 8 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR), and he weirdly hasn't been able to solve right handed hitters(.376 wOBA v. RHH during those 7 starts, .296 v. LHH). Maybe the slider he's starting to flash will help here, but I'd want to see him make progress there through the All-Star break/trade deadline before I start considering him more than a backup rotation option in my mind. I'm not too worried about the quality of contact. As a SP he's given up a hard hit rate of 37.9%, a smidge under the MLB average of 38.4%, and a barrel rate of 8.7%, a bit higher than the MLB average of 7.8%. That's only one extra barrel and one fewer hard hit ball though so I don't think either is all that meaningful. But he's holding his velo deep into games, and the times through the order penalty isn't biting him especially hard, which are by far the top two things I look at in this sort of situation. "Is he good" is obviously a very open question, as even during his hot run to open the year his peripherals were more good than great. But for me I think he's shown enough SP traits that it comes down to the common "would you rather have the meh starter or pretty good reliever" question. And fingers crossed but what he's done these last two starts with the new slider looks more middle than back of the rotation.

It's going to be such a shame if he can't stay a SP. The combination of not only velocity but ability to hold it deep into starts is so incredibly rare It does feel good that the Cubs have enough huge velo SP prospects that while odds are against each individually in aggregate they're actually pretty good for us netting one as a legit MLB starter

Okay yeah Keegan might be turning into a thing

I'm feeling increasingly confident about the viability of Thompson and Steele as viable MLB starters. Steele feels pretty locked in as a back end/swingman type, but Thompson seems to still have a shot at being a guy you want in your rotation, not just a guy you're okay with having in your rotation.

I'm a big fan of this new Daniel Palencia who doesn't walk people

I think Perlaza is my top "gut feel" guy in the system. The scouting reports don't like him much, and aside from walks there's not any statistical stuff about him that really wows you. And as a mediocre defensive corner outfielder, you generally need some black ink on your stat page. But his swings are very aesthetically pleasing (especially lefty), and the combination of offensive skills (pretty good power, average contact, plus patience, low groundball rate) is the sort of thing that tends to sneak up on you with how productive it is. I also like that he's a switch hitter who is actually fairly comparable from both sides of the plate. I think if the juiced ball was still around I'd be banging this drum a lot more, while now it's going to remain more measured. But I'd like to see him get a shot at some point.

You're welcome everyone

James Triantos is 4 for his last 39, one hell of a cold streak right now

Cruz to MB -> Devers or Gallardo to SB -> Herz or Wicks to Tenn? BTW do we have a recent scouting report on Cruz? I know he had kind of popped right before getting hurt but I'm fuzzy on the details

It's probably just rookie hitters but I'm curious how much of Kilian's atrocious command is the MLB balls. I know some guys have really complained about them, and Kilian's not just nibbling he's been missing wildly these last two starts.

For a guy who got famous among baseball fans for being a sabr guy, he's shockingly number illiterate. He's had some takes during COVID that show he doesn't super get math.