Bertz

Yeah pending the quality of the FA that's likely a fairly average starting 5. But Alzolay as the long guy in the pen plus Kilian/Wesneski at Iowa is very very good depth, and really raises the floor. They'll probably roster Sampson as another depth guy, too. He's a really interesting call. If he keeps up even 80% of what he's done so far, it'll feel really horsefeathers to keep him in Iowa. But he certainly shouldn't be given a spot in the starting 5, and doesn't feel particularly well suited to relief during the periods where everyone ahead of him is healthy. He might get a courtesy trade.

Something interesting about Palencia is he’s averaging more innings per start this year than Walker Buehler did in his one full season in the minors (2017). I feel like it’s pointless to just give up on starting for pitchers who are still building up IP, show they can start so far and are slower movers (Palencia is over a year from the bigs still). I think that's fair, and though I think part of Palencia's particular IP limits are self-imposed through poor control, it's not like the rotation spot he takes now or over the next 12 months are so precious that he'd be stunting anyone else's development. At the same time, when I think of 'holding velocity deep into games', I think of hitting triple digit pitch counts/3rd time through the order/6+ IP, so I wouldn't use that as a particular point in his favor based on what he's done so far. From a physical standpoint if you're still throwing gas 80+ pitches into a start, I'm not sure there's any difference between that being in the 4th or it being in the 6th.

Yeah pending the quality of the FA that's likely a fairly average starting 5. But Alzolay as the long guy in the pen plus Kilian/Wesneski at Iowa is very very good depth, and really raises the floor.

It's now been more than 3 months of Steele being very good. Since 5/15, his first against the Dbacks, and through 3 IP today: 17 GS, 88.2 IP, 80 H, 6 HR, 33 BB, 99 K, 2.86 ERA It's a little harder to back of the napkin FIP, but it's likely just a smidge over 3 so he's not crazy lucky or anything. Gotta start working a bit deeper into games but hot damn

When Palencia is on he is ON Part of me is impatient and would love him fast tracked in order to get to the bullpen next year, but he's such a unicorn being able to hold that crazy velocity so deep into games that you've gotta give it every shot as a starter

Good to see Seiya get a hit off of some velo

Madrigal better not be the leadoff hitter next year, but a 13 pitch PA to leadoff the game is extremely fun

Mekkes started for Iowa today, not sure what happened to force that. Caissie out of the lineup again. Hasn't played since Tuesday. Especially skipping both ends of a doubleheader, it's gotta be an injury.

Oof hopefully just dehydration or something minor. Forearms can run a pretty wide gamut of severity.

It’s been pretty fun this month. Obviously it sucks to miss out on a top pick but I don’t hate the potential outcome of the Cubs playing well to finish the season and getting a lot of positive momentum going into the offseason. 2 of the big SS FAs (Correa and Turner) have already come out and said they aren’t going to a rebuilding team. Hopefully a strong finish gives the appearance of a team that’s not too far off. I don't think winning meaningless games has ever had any impact on the next season. Especially when this team doesn't really have many future pieces. Like guys like Drew Smyly, Adrian Sampson, Patrick Wisdom, and even Willson Contreras (who might be gone next year) shouldn't be on any actual good Cubs teams yet they've been big contributors. And picking 13th in the Draft would be a huge failure in a year that they were done by May. Not saying they need to be #1 or even top 5 but there's a real chance they could be picking as low as 18th when it's all said and done with the lottery. May not seem bad now but we'll cringe at it when the draft comes around in July. Hoerner Happ Suzuki Morel Steele Thompson Velazquez Madrigal Wisdom About half the bullpen All are guys who will be on next year's team who do not have an established level of performance. I have no problem rooting for productive losses when the time is right. I was absolutely the guy rooting for Starlin to go 3/5 but the team to lose ten years ago, but there are far too many potential future contributors on the team at the moment to root for losses. And this isn't like last August where we were trying to talk ourselves into Frank Schwindel, they just mentioned on today's broadcast that the Cubs currently have the 6th youngest roster in baseball. Even guys like Smyly and Sampson are walking infomercials for the Cubs'pitching dev, which has non-zero value in this winter's FA. I forget which of Martin/Robertson it was but they said they chose Chicago over another comparable offer because reputation Hottovy and co. are starting to get around the league.

Yelich squaring to bunt here says volumes about where things stand with him right now

Apparently he's just gonna play. No extension or anything?

Williams is certainly burned for tomorrow now too. Very nice.

Has Dontrelle Willis been announcing long? I know he's done studio work for several years, but this is the first game I've watched that he's calling. He's pretty solid.

It would be really cool if Madrigal kept hitting. He's been the best version of himself since coming off the IL, hopefully his issues in April was just rust or lingering injury or whatever

Holy crap Kohl Franklin is really doing some things tonight. It would be pretty sweet of things have clicked for him. Ryan Jensen on the other hand...another clunker. Really wondering if it's time to pull the rip cord and shift towards short relief.

PCA did not take kindly to his slugging dropping below .500 Also for seemingly the first time in weeks neither of Perlaza or Canario did anything in the first inning

It's very funny to me that the team has started winning 1-run and extra-inning games AFTER the bullpen was eviscerated at the deadline. Just in case there was any doubt those are luck stats before.

Of the three, Kimbrel is really the dude I feel least strongly about. I left this out of the thread, but I really wonder if you could get Kimbrel cheaper than most other teams and so maybe it just makes sense to roll the dice. I’m leery of any pitcher the Dodgers can’t fix but maybe the Cubs really feel like they have the secret sauce. Britton and Estévez are really fun options and my personal favorites of the three. Kind of crazy that Kimbrel has been absolute garbage since the 2018 playoffs with the exception of 36 insanely good innings for the Cubs when we were looking to trade him. I know there's sample size stuff and ERA being a flawed stat but that 2021 Cubs ERA really jumps out 2019 CHC - 6.53 2020 CHC - 5.28 2021 CHC - 0.49 2021 CWS - 5.09 2022 LAD - 4.57 He was worth 2.5 wins during his 2021 stint with the Cubs and -1 win during the other 3.5 seasons. I don't know if it's the cause or a symptom, but Kimbrel's performance seems to move pretty much in lockstep with his velo. Given his age that would make me very uncomfortable, though the Cubs did just get 37 year old David Robertson to sport his highest velo mark in 11 years.

FO projected the defense at #10, so while I don't want to be all "you hate my team!1!1" it seems pretty clickbait-y to rank them #32 while otherwise generally leaning on FO for your stats and research.