Bertz

Does Chase Strumpf have kompromat on everyone who writes about the Cubs? It's been clear he's a non-prospect since at least mid '22 and yet he still gets brought up as if he's a thing As to the topic at hand, I think I'd consider Aliendo and Franklin but ultimately do nothing. The fact that the Cubs added Vazquez last week but no others at the same time makes me think that's ultimately the plan

Yeah I think if they sign Ohtani they need to save cash elsewhere, and if you trade for Alonso or Soto it seems pretty certain Wicks or Brown are going the other way. In that case you'd love to have a backfill. Either way you make the move. Since trading Morel for pitching would be something you could do that doesn't have any dependencies elsewhere, it might happen pretty quick.

He also threw out the possibility of Morel being involved in a young player swap akin to the Varsho/Moreno swap last year instead of being traded for someone in their walk year like Alonso or Soto. I'd assume a pitcher from e.g. Seattle or Detroit would be most likely but curious what else they might be considering.

Floro is a good reliever in the right price range, but as more or less a righty specialist I don't think there's a fit. Cuas is slated to fill that same role, with much better stuff, with minor league options. I know Cuas didn't make a ton of fans last season but they basically remade him on the fly Yuki Matsui I can get behind though. Even though he'll probably require a richer contract than Jed normally hands out to relievers, his combo of funk, command, and that nasty splitter look like a high end setup arm.

Hoskins called out in the Athletic this AM https://theathletic.com/5054493/2023/11/12/cubs-rhys-hoskins-christopher-morel-james-triantos

This is something I've been thinking about for a bit, and sort of came up today in the offseason thread. There's a pretty clear dividing line with position players available this winter. Ohtani, Soto, Alonso, Bellinger, and to a lesser extent Matt Chapman are the big boys. However I think everyone agrees that we need to add two bats this winter, so who do you like as the "other" bat? Here's a rundown of some options, guys who play 1B/3B/DH and don't seem primed to make more than ~$15M Rhys Hoskins Pros: He probably only wants a one year deal to re-establish value and get back on the market. Pre-injury Hoskins was a pretty consistently safe bet for a wRC+ in the 120-130 range Cons: That's a pretty major injury he's coming off of, and the Phillies made no effort to resign him. That probably has more to do with their roster than Rhys, but it's still something to consider Jorge Polanco (trade) Pros: He plays 2B/3B, but hits like a low end 1B. He's a switch hitter, more athletic than anyone else on this list, and he's got a team option for '25 Cons: Lots of injuries. He's been solid at 3B in SSS, but he's had a fairly limited run there and obviously 2B is spoken for here. While he won't cost a ton, he will require some trade assets to acquire Jeimer Candelario Pros: Already successfully integrated with the team this summer. Can switch between 1B/3B seamlessly based on our needs Cons: Feels like in a FA class this shallow he's going to get a 3 or 4 year deal, and while he fits the roster like a glove today his tweener status might be annoying a year from now Jorge Soler Pros: Some quality nostalgia from a quality lefty-mashing DH. His '23 was a step up from prior years but most of the stuff under the hood does look sustainable Cons: He was more or less replacement level in '21-'22. Given that he opted out He seems poised to get a multi-year deal Brandon Belt Pros: He's not the borderline star he was when he was younger, but on a pure offensive basis might still be the best option on this list Cons: Contact and platoon issues grow as he gets older. Mostly DH'd last year, and I'm not sure if that was in deference to Vladito or because he can't play 1B well anymore Mitch Garver Pros: Lefty masher, but still pretty good at hitting righties as well. Can nominally catch as well, so if you want to play late game matchups and get some offense behind the plate he opens some fun things tactically Cons: His ability to catch might be a negative if he insists on doing a ton of it. He has not played much 1B despite it feeling like a natural way to get his bat in the lineup, so not sure if he has some issues there. His postseason heroics may have bought him a 3rd year on his contract. Durability issues, even in '23 where he wasn't catching as much Justin Turner Pros: TT threw the "professional hitter" label at him in another thread, and he's more or less a textbook example. There's a lot of swing and miss on this list but not from Turner. Probably only requires a one year deal. You wouldn't run him out there every day, though looks like he can still fake it at 3B (and 2B?) Cons: While he gets to his offense in a very different way, as a RHH 1B/DH/emergency 3B with a bat 10-20% better than average, is he that different from Patrick Wisdom? He's also at an age where he could really fall off the cliff in a hurry Any others we should look at? I tend to want a compliment to the other bat. So like Hoskins or Garver if we go Ohtani/Soto/Bellinger or Polanco if we end up with Pete Alonso. Brandon Belt with Matt Chapman maybe? (Please don't sign Matt Chapman, Jed)

Yeah the data coming out makes it look like Yamamoto is better than Imanaga, but not by nearly enough to justify getting ~2.5x the cash. The scouting-forward stuff seems to more affirm where the projected price tags are.

I'd take #2 but choose a different bat from that Candelario/Turner tier (Hoskins probably).

So....many...ellipses....

Getting from 3B for Jonathan Villar is...not a great endorsement

To me, the main takeaway here is that Morel is not getting run at 3B, which means he's pretty overwhelmingly likely to get dealt. The other thing is it's a CYA move from Jed. The Cubs basically need to add two bats this winter, and have openings at 1B/DH/3B. Based on who's out there on the market, it feels likely that Jed adds a 1B and a DH, but there are certainly scenarios where 1B gets all left open. For example a Juan Soto and Jorge Polanco offseason. You don't want in that scenario to be forced either to sell Morel or otherwise bury him on the depth chart. Morel at 1B is imperfect but it's at least a potential path to more or less everyday at bats. But mostly this is confirmation he's getting traded.

Yeah 1908 you nailed it. The team that has a QO player heading into the offseason more or less comes to the table with a $20M coupon in hand. Is that going to matter if e.g. the Yankees want to go scorched earth and offer Soto $50-100M more than anyone else? Of course not. But just because it's not a guaranteed way to lock your guy down like e.g. the Franchise Tag doesn't mean it's not a real factor with a notable value.

Triantos scares me more than any of our other prospects. Easily the likely outcome is something like Adam Frazier with crappier defense at 2B. That's fine, and even if a bit disappointing would make a quality bench piece. But we already have Nico Hoerner starting st 2B, we have Nick Madrigal on the bench, and Matt Shaw a bit ahead of Triantos developmentally. 3 RHH contact bats with better infield chops standing between Triantos and MLB plate appearances. Since James is a fringe Top 100 guy, we should cash that in right now, right? But there's just enough Alex Bregman in there to make me nervous. Bregman was only ever a superstar because of the rabbit ball, but even since he's been a guy running a ~125 wRC+ with a 1:1 K/BB ratio. Those guys are rare in today's game. There's usually like a dozen hitters with even-ish K/BB ratios a year, with a couple of those being crappy slap hitters (Tony Kemp this year), and a couple others being sluggers who get pitched around constantly (e.g. Soto and Acuna). If it turns out we had one of those on hand and then dumped him I'm going to be so disappointed.

So there's reall two different considerations here. First is "Is there any value to trading for Soto beyond the ~6 WAR he's going to put up?" The answer to that is yes, you've got at minimum a qualifying offer at the tail end. The second question is "Does the team trading for Soto get an advantage in retaining him?" I contend that's also yes. The qualifying offer contributes here in a prett explicit way. The number Jed threw out a few years ago was $20M. But regardless of what it's worth, the team that already has him essentially starts the bidding with an $XM head start. There's also the soft stuff. If he likes it where he's traded he might sign an extension or give that team an opportunity to match in FA. Those aren't things with a dollar value, but if you're worried about your chances of retaining him they absolutely matter. Honestly though? Even if there's no chance of keeping him trade for him anyway. He's legitimate 6-7 WAR demigod. He'd be our best player since prime Bryant and our best hitter since Sosa. Sweating losing like Christopher Morel or Owen Caissie over that is loser stuff.

I'll say this is the one thing that makes me think PTR might do what's necessary for Ohtani Ohtani is so singularly popular, he might drive enough Marquee revenue to make him profitable before he takes a single AB. For the last ~20 years, popularity has meant very little. RSN money was largely fixed, and merchandise revenue goes into a big leaguewide pot. But with the Cubs owning most of Marquee and having just launched a DTC offering, now might be a unique time where that off the field stuff really matters.

Yeah this feels right on the money. One thing that really sucks this winter is that it's actually a great winter for depth SPs. Gibson, Maeda, Lorenzen, Lance Lynn, and Nick Martinez are all guys I'd happily have as a #4/#5. James Paxton and Frankie Montas are quality injury rebound bets. Like I love that the Cubs finally have minor league depth and (barring trade) shouldn't need to shop in this part of the store but damn where were a lot of these guys over the last 3-4 years?

If the Cubs were a year further ahead of schedule we would have absolutely been having the same arguments about Rafael Devers. The Sox eventually and unexpectedly sacked up and locked him down. Don't take for granted the guy will be there a year from now. Boras has a reputation for no extensions, and his guys certainly do them less often, but you can absolutely lock a Boras client down. Strasburg is a prominent example that comes to mind. Start writing Soto a check that starts with a 5 and I really doubt he turns it down. And even if he does hit the market a year from now, how many times have we seen the deal where a guy goes back to his last team for a chance to match? Hell isn't that what the "Arson Judge" debacle was last winter?

It's ~$20M in value that other teams have to pay that the Cubs don’t. If they want to keep him that matters.

In today's game its really hard to find contact bats who aren't completely punch-less. With that in mind I'd be very reticent to move Hoerner. Now Matt Shaw looks like he might the kind of guy who could hit 20 homers with a strikeout rate hovering around 15%, and his best position is probably going to be 2B. So when he's ready maybe we talk, but I feel like dumping Nico to accommodate another bat with tons of power and tons of swing and miss would be a mistake.

The team has a lot of resources, but probably does have to skimp somewhere. I could see 3B being that somewhere. Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom have both settled into that "not ideal but not gonna kill you" level of production, and both compliment each other well. You've got Miles Mastrobuoni in the mix, probably at a similar talent level to Madrigal and Wisdom. In the minors you've got BJ Murray and Matt Shaw not that far away. Very clearly not ideal, but it is probably the place we can punt on upgrading and worry the least about it. I would be comfortable doing so if the other items on the to-do list are so emphatically crossed off.

This is exactly what I think is most likely too. Mayyyybe they go a little harder on the bullpen by using trade chips instead of relying on FA, but this feels like Plan A.

Even if you set aside any and all soft factors, the Qualifying Offer is a very tangible and explicit cudgel to aid in resigning a guy you want to keep. So if you are keen on keeping Soto there very much is value in grabbing him now. There's also the big one, which is opportunity. People pretend Boras guys never sign extensions but that's not true. If you want Juan Soto in 2025+ there's a very real chance you need to get him in the door this offseason.

Bauer's not going to get signed. Teams don't stay away from these guys forever, but in recent times there does tend to be a cooling off period before another team signs them. But because Bauer is so insistent on running his mouth instead of putting his head down, that cooling off period is never going to come.

I feel like the level of disfunction on the South Side has been pretty funny but it's approaching the point where it's just plain sad.