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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Yeah I think I'd sign a veteran who could close on day 1 if needed (again, David Robertson is perfect), and then make a Cuas-like trade for someone we'd intend to make the opening day bullpen but could go to Iowa if needed. But for example with the second lefty in the pen, I'd much rather have the choice to cycle through Hughes, Little, and someone from Iowa like Horn than be locked into a pure LOOGY like Brand Hand. Someone like Bummer (even coming off a bad year) is a completely different conversation, but those "safe" boring vets are potential landmines IMO.
  2. Bertz
    Third Base is presumably where Jed was referring to when he said they were going to try and give Morel runway to focus on just one position. I hope that works because the market there really sucks. I'd give Candelario a really healthy 2 year deal if that would work, but otherwise I dont want any of these guys (and there's not really many others of note you didn't touch on...Gio Urshela?). I think if there's one position of need I'm not especially concerned about Jed punting on its 3rd. On the bullpen, I don't want to fall into the trap of fighting last year's battles. Yes, a few weeks ago things got so bad we were desperate for anyone decent to throw some innings. That said, even for the pen's problems it's too good to sign cromulent veterans just for stability. Brad Hand, Brent Suter, and others of that ilk are highly likelyto blow up in our faces like Brad Boxberger did last year. Either aim high (I still love David Robertson for instance), or use trades to bring in guys you can option to the minor leagues. Locking a roster spot down with mediocre situational relievers is the absolute worst way to fortify the current bullpen.
  3. Bertz
    Yeah there's Turner, all their various star-caliber rentals, the pitchers they reclaimed like Heaney and Anderson last year, etc. I think Justin Turner's pretty much the only non superstar they've gone more than ~3 years on in a long while. You do, to Squally's point, have to have a solid baseline of talent (both majors and minors) on hand to operate this way, but I think at the moment the org actually does. I'd be very reticent this winter or next to give out any medium length contracts to 3ish WAR players right now. Go short term or go star hunting IMO. If/when the farm gets back to a sad state like it was in 2018 again we can reverse course but for right now I'd hate to sign e.g. a Jordan Montgomery
  4. Bertz
    I like Alonso a lot, enough that I probably would at least consider giving up something like Morel, but yeah I wouldn't be keen on extending him. I actually think in general I want the org to be more comfortable just having guys for a year or two and then saying goodbye. I want them to do it now with Bellinger and I'd like them to do it again next year with whoever is at 1B (unless it's Soto, extend the horsefeathers out of Soto). This is IMO one of the many smart things the Dodgers do.
  5. Bertz
    I'm old enough to remember Alex Rodriguez, fresh off a gold glove, moving down the defensive spectrum because it's what his new team preferred and he was already being paid as if he was a shortstop
  6. Bertz
    You think the Padres would want like 3 or 4 outfielders in a Soto trade?
  7. Bertz
    One other bat I have thought a lot about is Rhys Hoskins. Coming off his injury, he seems very ripe for a pillow contract like Bellinger got last winter. The Phillies, with their glut of unathletic corner guys, don't seem likely to retain him (maybe the QO him and flip him, but I don't think they keep him). He'd be a quality starting caliber 1B, and on a one year deal that would give Jed another year to evaluate Caissie et al before committing to locking down 1B long term.
  8. Bertz
    The difference between a 1B and COFer is half a win a year, and that's assuming he is similarly below average defensively on the dirt. That adds up, especially over a long term deal, which is why I don't expect Juan would make the move before getting paid. But for a team, that half a win can be more than made up for by the specifics of their roster. The Cubs have corner outfielders coming out the ears, so Soto staying in the OF rather than shifting to 1B would 1000% be about deference to the desires of a superstar, and not about the pure baseball decision-making.
  9. Bertz
    I wonder if Soto would play 1B post-extension. I doubt he would want to before he gets paid, since even a blah defensive outfielder gets paid more than a 1B, but once he's got his half-billion I'd like to think he wouldn't care. You can make it work with him still as an OFer obviously, but it becomes a perfect fit if he shifts. On the relief front, I expect real resources allocated there but not a name-brand closer. Something like bringing David Robertson back plus grabbing someone they feel like they can level up via the pitch lab a la Cuas (more substantial than Cuas though, TT's names feel closer to the right tier).
  10. Bertz
    Glasnow especially feels like a name to really keep an eye on. With the way the Rays set up his extension ($5M in '23, $25M in '24) they're clearly going to trade him. I expect that Jed will get the impact SP in FA (Yamamoto seems pretty perfect?), but if they go the trade route Glasnow would make a ton of sense. Jed would LOVE an ace on a one year deal, and his durability issues are mitigated by the Cubs' young pitching depth.
  11. Bertz
    Varland seems to more or less be the Twins version of Wrsneski. It would be nice to return the favor. The Cubs have also been weirdly bad on Sundays, hopefully that starts turning around too.
  12. Bertz
    Wesneski's issues are pretty reminiscent of Alzolay's a few years ago. Presumably the solution is pretty similar and revolve around the cutter. Give him a month down at Iowa and call him back up in June to give Steele a breather. Boxberger's gotta go, or at least get IL'd. He's got enough command and funk to be pretty successful at 93, but there's a ton of 90-91 from him right now. I understand wanting an adult down in the pen, but he's throwing BP right now.
  13. Bertz
    Cubs have won two in a row The star of last night's game was Chris Morel, the second most positive person in the world after... Today, Hayden Wesneski toes the rubber. After a rough start he's on a bit of a roll, so he's likely to be extra animated on the mound Joe Ryan is starting for the Twins. He's a boring finesse pitcher who gets soft contact, so you know Jed's going to watch with interest Go Cubs, with 3 in a row
  14. Bertz
    Nico no longer day-to-day
  15. Bertz
    Yeah that Denver one is almost as egregious as the Carolina one
  16. Bertz
    Let me just check these vs. LHP numbers... Also looks like they worked their pen pretty hard against the Padres. Duran is their only good reliever who tonight wouldn't be his 3rd in a row or 3rd of 4.
  17. Bertz
  18. Bertz
    Wesneski is one of the MLB starters listed but doesn't get a writeup. Then among the AAA arms Ben Brown gets a nod
  19. Bertz
    I might actually be more interested in Kohl's first AA start than Ferris' encore. God there's just so much fun pitching in the system now
  20. Bertz
    I think one of the biggest factors with this question is Justin Steele. He's already at 49 innings, while his career high is the 119 he threw last year. I'm not sure what the team's thoughts are on handling him, but I'd be tempted to IL him and skip a start or two. That gives you a bit more time to decide if Wesneski needs some time in Iowa or not.
  21. Bertz
    Under my tutelage, the Cubs finally broke their losing streak on Wednesday Now the Cubs head up to Minnesota to begin what might be their toughest road trip of the year Pitching for the Twins is Sonny Gray. He's one of the OG sweeper pitchers, so expect all the lefties including Eric Hosmer and Tucker Barnhart to start tonight Opposing Gray is Drew Smyly, one of Jed's shrewder moves Go Cubs, win two in a row tonight
  22. Bertz
    He's hitting a ton of weak fly balls. FG says he's hitting an astronomical 31% pop-ups. There's reason to doubt that specific number (it's a bit in the weeds, but the tl;dr is that MiLB scorers and MLB scorers differ on the semantics of pop-ups vs. flyballs vs. line drives), but he's clearly not hitting the ball with authority often enough. The glass half full is that this is the first step in closing his hole at the top of the zone. Essentially he's gone from not making contact at all to all those belt high fastballs to making poor contact. He's also hitting the ball to the opposite field too much, which I'm guessing is related.
  23. Bertz
    Yeah this is awesome! I find myself really eying that Iowa pen. I mentioned it in the gamethread last night but I think Keegan could use a breather in Iowa, and Nick Burdi is absolutely shoving. I'd love to make that swap. And then Horn and Heuer are not far behind. I'd like to see Ross start leaning on Merryweather and Rucker more, and not hiding them in garbage time. They're both pitching well (Merryweather has a sub 3 ERA with peripherals to match after his first outing of the year), but if you can't pitch in even medium leverage spots it's largely for naught. Let them sink/swim and move the line along.
  24. Bertz
    Considering he's more or less platooning with Wisdom swapping him for Mastro seems pretty reasonable
  25. Bertz
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