Bertz

https://theathletic.com/5270852/2024/02/16/mlb-young-hitters-fantasy-baseball?source=user-shared-article Christopher Morel gets a little love as a young breakout hitter for 2024. The tl;dr is that his plate discipline numbers paint the picture of being "selectively aggressive", the power is the goods, and he pulls the ball in the air a lot. Obviously more swing and miss than you'd like but the overall package is strong.

I don't remember where I saw it, but there's some qualifier where the guy has to make his debut with the team getting the PPI, so Busch's cup of coffee last year with the Dodgers exempts him unfortunately.

I don't have a throughline for all of this, but some generally related thoughts: - Except for at the very beginning with the last core when half the team was making league minimum and putting up 3+ WAR, and in '21 coming out of the COVID shutdown, the team has otherwise always hung out at minimum just below the luxury tax. I think that is, even at the most pessimistic, where you should expect payroll to be in any given year - The team right now is ~$30M below the tax. I 100% expect additional moves, and at least one of some consequence. Maybe instead of Bellinger it's Ryne Stanek and JDM or Brandon Belt and Brandon Woodruff, but I would be floored if payroll is below like $220M on April 1st - Given that the team has gone above the LT (unlike say, the Giants), and that they took such great pains to stay under last year (when the marginal value of another ~$10M was quite high), I do think it was reasonable and not some rose colored glasses moment to expect them to exceed the tax this year. I would currently put it below 50/50 but I do still think there's a decent chance it happens, most likely scenario being Bellinger at ~$25M while also adding $10-15M in additional pitching depth - If the team does not exceed the tax this year, I do think you have to seriously consider the possibility that PTR might just be done with allowing that. Or maybe it has to be a very special circumstance to allow for it. For example this year, which looks like a potential last hurrah for the Astros, is going to be their first year ever over the tax - The glass half full explanation to staying under the tax this year would be that Jed has to dip under one of the next three years and some combo of the crappy FA market beyond Ohtani, the crappy division, or bullish internal projections made them decide last minute to do this year. It retroactively makes some decisions from last year worse, but it's reasonably likely and not nearly as catastrophic as a blanket "No LT" mandate from ownership - I don't think ownership doesn't care about winning or is cool with 84 wins in perpetuity or anything like that. Not because Tom's a swell dude (he very much is not!), but because the pendulum is swinging back towards revenue being tied directly to wins and attendance. The RSN implosion means you need to have incentive to get people to buy direct Marquee subs and watch Marquee ads. You can't just survive on a bunch of $6/month carriage fees from cable subscribers who don't even watch sports anymore. Similarly, the value of all the real estate Ricketts has bought around Wrigley is maximized by getting asses excited to trek up to Lakeview on game days - I think we should clearly expect Jed to be measured and conservative and weight the next year less than the three after it. HOWEVER, I don't think it's smart to make definitive declarations about what he will or won't do in specific circumstances. Like TT mentioned, I've made this point before but if you read stuff from Dodgers fans many said a lot of the same stuff about Friedman as Cubs fans do about Jed. It required some dumb mental gymnastics about Mookie being a "right place right time" sort of aberration, but otherwise they weren't wrong. He gave Greinke a legitimate top of market deal way back in 2013, and otherwise did mid sized extensions to guys like Taylor and Muncy or short high AAV deals to guys like Bauer. Freddie Freeman's deal was a bit of an exception, but while huge by 1B standards it wasn't really in absolute terms (less than Dansby got). We all saw what happened this winter. These narratives are only accurate until they're not, and specific circumstances can impact team behaviors significantly - Even as someone who mostly likes Jed, he is CLEARLY part of the ultra annoying class of baseball execs who can't do a damn thing without a deadline. Everyone was worried he was gonna not get a SP in '21 and he pulled Stroman last minute, everyone was worried he was going to miss all the shortstops last winter and he got Swanson, the most likely outcome is he comes down with one of the Boras guys this winter. Going forward, we should hope the Cubs have overlapping interests with Preller or Dipoto because that's probably the only way we won't have to wait interminably long for Jed to make moves and save our sanity

I've also brought up the Tigers and Nats as potential sleeper teams for the Boras guys, but probably scratch that that this point: It's getting really hard to see who beyond the Cubs/Giants/Angels might have the stomach for a big signing

18. Horton 20. PCA 32. Shaw 33. Alcantara 43. Wicks 65. Caissie 84. Busch

There are mistakes and there are things that are just circumstances, and IMO 3B this winter is very much just the latter. The 3B market is/was Matt Chapman, Jeimer Candelario, and Gio Urshela. End of list. Not exactly a robust market. Urshela's not much (any?) better than the guys we've got in house, and is coming off a major injury to boot. Candelario would'vebeen a modest upgrade, but his defense at 3B is slipping and he'll probably be a tweener like Wisdom before too long. We all know the deal with Chapman and the Boras guys. I actually think the timeshare at 3rd should work out reasonably well. You've got a good complement of offensive skillets. I think the big question is whether any of Busch/Wisdom/Morel can be closer to -5 at the position than -15. But if not Madrigal getting ~70% of the playing time until one of the kids is ready is fine. The problem is if we're saying more or less the same thing about CF as well. You can only piecemeal so many positions at once.

I'm very understanding of market forces, not making moves just to make moves, etc. But if Jed just adds a bit of pitching depth and then we roll into the year that's a wildy unacceptable offseason. Like I'm not going to try to put lipstick on that pig. That said, like Squally said Jed can't go "we've got another $35M burning a hole in our pockets!", particularly given that most of the guys you'd reasonably spend money on all have the same agent. More or less all of this waiting around doesn't matter, it's frustrating for fans but does nothing in the W/L column. So I'm not really in the business of assigning grades until inventory runs out or it's pencils down time and the season is about to start.

I was very happy with the idea of PCA in CF if we'd added like a Soto. But I think, even taking a Bellinger/Chapman add as a given I feel like this iteration of the offseason we don't have the buffer that I'm comfortable with to run him out there everyday from day 1. I don't think he needs a ton of time, I'd guess he's tracking towards Memorial Day, but I would not want him breaking camp at this point.

Yeah the big blow has already happened with smaller rosters and the loss of the NWL and its equivalents. But stuff like this isn't really a problem. It's removing a layover from a bunch of fresh draftees on their way to full season ball and handing those PAs back to 18/19 year old prior year HS draftees and IFAs. Also TT nailed it in that the difference between the ACL and like scrimmages or EXST games is much more about the fact that the former is recorded better and less about the quality of competition or instruction.

Like Tim/1908 mentioned my wording was a little ambiguous but I was saying the opposite. Basically I don't see a big Kim trade with the Padres as likely at this stage, but I'd still like to do a smaller trade since we do IMO have a surplus of outfielders. Hell, maybe even something like a reverse Busch trade where we get a more talented but inherently riskier A baller back for Canario. (or if we want to get WILD, Morel)

I do not think Jed is doing a Ha Seong Kim trade at this point, but sending an outfielder like Canario San Diego's way makes a ton of sense. Bring Steven Wilson back this way maybe?

This seems fine? Good even? Most high school players don't get into games right after getting drafted. Like looking at Termarr Johnson, a tippy top offensivd high school prospect, he got into 23 games post draft. 9 games in the ACL and 14 in low A. Top talents like him could probably still go straight to A ball. Mid round prospects, like our own Christopher Paciolla, don't usually get into formal games their draft year at all. College players often spend like a weekend in the complex league before going into full season ball. They're also not going to really miss anything. Moving everything up a month I think makes it more likely that the really young and raw guys get a ~month in full season ball if they show out in their complex league. Think like Owen Caissie in '21 or Ballesteros in '22.

When you have the quality and quantity of players under rep that Boras has you can operate this way. There are 4 players left on the market you could call impact guys, all are repped by Boras. He also has JD Martinez, who you might argue is the 5th best player on the market. There are a couple quality guys left he doesn't represent like Amed Rosario, Michael Lorenzen, and Brandon Belt. But more or less Boras' agency owned/owns all of the impact talent this winter outside of Nola, Gray, and the Japanese guys. Next winter is not going to be much different with Soto, Cole, and Bregman. Boras represents such a critical mass of players, and particularly the upper class of players, that he can literally move the market. Some player whose agent is like his lawyer uncle has to operate more like what you describe.

The market for Chapman is kind of fascinating. - He could maybe do the Jayson Werth "join a team a year or two early" thing with the Nats, Tigers, or Royals - Blue Jays, Phillies, and Mariners are a fit but seem unlikely to continue playing in those waters financially - Cubs, Giants, and Angels could make it work but seem to be focused elsewhere - Brewers and Marlins are competitive and have a fit but they're probably too cheap With this many maybe's there's bound to be enough market for him to get paid at least reasonably well, but I do not have a good sense of where it's going to come from.

Fangraphs has it all now, but for guys who haven't made it to MLB yet you have to finagle your custom dashboard to get it all. I'm hoping they have something less jerry rigged when the season starts.

Belt would only be at danger of losing playing time if he played poorly or if he got injured (which based on the last few years is a when/how long rather than an if). The squeeze for PT would be primarily on Wisdom/Morel, and after that Busch and Madrigal.

There's enough room on the OD roster for both Bellinger and Belt. The starting 13 position players to open the year would be: Gomes, Busch, Hoerner, Swanson, Madrigal, Happ, Tauchman, Suzuki, Morel, Amaya, Wisdom, Bellinger, Belt And with Hoerner/Bellinger's positional versatility I think you've got good defensive coverage. There's definite redundancy with Busch/Morel/Wisdom, but let it work itself out. I'm very okay getting into "make some uncomfortable decisions" mode. All three guys have minor league options. And of course there will be injuries.

I agree the team can/should add one of Belt/JDM/Soler. Makes Morel a 10th man rather than having a dedicated spot, but that's fine. If he wants an everyday spot he can learn to field or hit like a no doubt everyday DH. Right now he does neither, and we shouldn't hold the team back on his regard. Earn it. I also think, if you do it this week, you insulate yourself from the Boras situation ending too badly. If Bellinger/Chapman are going to hold out til March you can't just wait for them. Signing e.g. Belt and missing out on the Boras guys makes this a bad offseason, missing out on the Boras guys and then having to go crawling to like Eddie Rosario or some horsefeathers for your "big bat" is catastrophic.

Most of the players are already down in AZ which means pictures are starting to hit Twitter And of course some uselessly far away action

I would guess it's less about specific names, and more about the financial footprint of a large deal. During the last run, it became very clear that the team is only allowed by Tom to exceed the luxury tax two years in a row. Maybe that's changed with Marquee launched, but we have not yet seen much reason to think so. Right now the team is ~$30M under the cap for 2024, ~$70M in '25, and '$65m in '26. A TON of money falls off in '27, so it should be easy to dip under them. So if Jed adds two of the Boras guys at $25M per this winter, you can see he either needs to have a very austere winter next year, or load up on one year deals next year and have the austerity winter in '26. If he only adds one long term contract this winter, he can add a long term contract next year while still dipping under the LT. I think that's why we're seeing this brinksmanship. If Jed can add one of the Boras guys this winter on a short deal it's a huge boon to the three year window. Now obviously it's silly that a large market team has to jump through these self imposed hoops but that's PTR.

I didn't realize how much Fangraphs hated Gomes' framing last year. He's never been a framing wizard but I feel like that's not something I noticed throughout the year. I would guess it escalated late in the year when the innings really started piling up? I mostly feel good about the catcher spot though. First off I do legitimately believe the Cubs that the soft factors are valuable. They went out and got Tucker Barnhart last year when Curt Casali and Roberto Perez, an offensive backup catcher and a more throwing/framing oriented defensive one, were both available for similar money or less. Other smart orgs like the Yankees, Astros, and Rays have also punted on paper catcher improvements over the last few years to run a Pitcher Whisperer behind the plate. At minimum I believe they believe it and they're not dumb or on an island for doing so. I like Amaya a lot too. He looks like an above average hitter, possibly in absolute terms and almost certainlty by catcher standards. He's already an above average framer as well. He was a bit noodle armed last year, but I think it's reasonable to think that improves another year out from his TJ surgery. I also think having a backup who is not just viable but good likely leads to better load management with Gomes. He's at an age where he can implode at any time, but giving him more rest maximizes the odds that we continue to get the best version of him. I'd like to see Gomes and Amaya at closer to a 50/50 split.

Going back to the Athletic article this AM, Junis might not have been a one-off. Lorenzen would be very cool if he's willing to be a swingman. I feel like most of the other options on the market I'd only want on a MiLB deal. Someone like Eric Lauer?

I think the "the team's not any better than last year" argument has some merit, but it's mostly missing the forest for the trees. Let's assume Jed adds Bellinger and another decent reliever, which looks like the modal outcome from here. On the one hand yeah in terms of players in and players out you retained Bellinger, replaced Stroman with a probably comparable SP, shuffled the bullpen, and added Busch to replace Hosmer/Mancini/Candelario. I'd call it improvement but it's nominal. But we're taking the rest of the team and treating it as static, which isn't reliable or fair for several reasons: - The team underperformed its peripherals by 8 (!!) games last year. I am of the mind that this is mostly luck, but to whatever extent its not you'd likely hang it on the manager, and the Cubs brought in the best manager in the league this winter. That 8 game gap should disappear. If we're anchoring off of a number it should be closer to 91 than 83 (although best practice is to not anchor off of last year at all, anchor off of projections) - Age on the roster is mostly a positive. Very few of the team's major contributors are old. Gomes, Hendricks, and Taillon are in their mid to late 30's, and everyone else of consequence was 29 or under last year. - The team improved over the course of the year last year. Morel wasn't up early. Neither was Amaya. Smyly was starting. Alzolay wasn't closing, etc. - The big one is that the dam is about to break with the kids coming up. PCA, Caissie, and Brown are potential impact guys who will open the year at Iowa. Canario, Murray, and Vazquez are solid prospects who will be there too. The meat of the farm is going to open at AA next year. You would put their ETA as early '25, but once you're that close it's not crazy to be in MLB by July or August of '24. So much in the same way the August '23 Cubs were much better than the April '23 Cubs, the same should be true in 2024 Like I'm not going pretend this offseason is awesome. But now that we know Ohtani was dead set on LAD, the only real option for really moving the needle was to immolate most of our young MLB pitching for Juan Soto. I would certainly have considered it, but at the same time if Jed ends up getting one of the Boras guys on a sweetheart deal, which looks increasingly likely, that's likely going to be a far better outcome.