Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Every starting pitcher the Cubs have except Assad and Wesneski has a pretty elevated injury risk. Every SP the Cubs have except for Steele has high performance risk. Jed's clearly not going to spend on stars this winter, so the rotation *needs* numbers. It's 7 deep right now, with presumably a front half SP on the way. That's great! We should make sure it stays that way.
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I never said anything about the bullpen. If we've got our full complement of youths I'm happy to hand the 5th starter spot to Wicks et al. If the herd is thinned I think bringing someone in is probably smart.
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I think if you trade from the cache of young pitching, which as we know there's some rumblings about, you can fit a guy like this in pretty easily. I like James Paxton under similar circumstances.
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My interest would be highly dependent on the rest of the offseason around him, but Manaea is going to be a savvy pickup for someone. SFG did a lot to get him back on track including this sweeper and adding back some velo.
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The line for a first division starter at 1B is being approximately 20% better than average on offense (a 120 wRC+ and an .800ish OPS). That is IMO a slightly rosey but not totally unreasonable expectation for Bellinger's offense moving forward. Bellinger is a good defender at 1B and a good baserunner and for a free agent quite young. But even all of that being considered as purely a 1B Bellinger would maybe get like 4 years and $80M? That's why I'm out on Bellinger on a traditional contract. There's value in his flexibility and being able to man the OF but not close to $100M IMO. Give me Bellinger on a short term deal though and I'm very onboard.
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Video: Cubs Top Prospects: Michael Arias
Bertz replied to Aram Leighton's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Holy crap, welcome Aram! If you go digging you'll find your Twitter gets linked to quite frequently around here. Lots of fans of your work. -
Alonso maybe? Overall though I think just about any trade of substance except for a deal for just Bieber probably makes sense to include one of them. I think what is interesting about anything you read from Sharma is how casually he assumes Jed is going to make some hay via trade this winter. Rogers has been similar when he's written and talked about the Cubs. They've gotta be hearing stuff.
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Great read, as most pieces he doesn't co-write with Mooney are. This stood out though
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A cool thing I was just thinking about with a Bellinger/Hoskins combo is that you can sort of platoon Tauchman/Madrigal depending on whether you want to prioritize IF defense or OF defense. For example, if Justin Steele is pitching you absolutely cannot run Morel out at 3B. But you could do Madrigal at 3rd, Morel at DH, Bellinger at CF, Hoskins at 1st. Conversely with like Taillon on the mound you could do Morel at 3rd, Bellinger at 1st, Hoskins DHing, and Tauchman in CF. If you start feeling more comfortable with Morel at 3rd or when PCA is ready you can shift to more of a set everyday lineup. I've been vocally anti-Bellinger from the start of the offseason, but the story is way different on a short term deal. He's always been a perfect fit for the 2024 club, but it's a matter of how long I want to pay him for that privilege.
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I remember seeing earlier in the offseason someone (one of the BN guys?) suggested something like the first Carlos Correa deal for Bellinger. I didn't think that made sense from Bellinger's perspective at the time, but now it might be the most mutually beneficial move for both him and Jed? - If Bellinger hits like last year, he probably pulls down $300M next winter - If Bellinger hits more good than great (~110 wRC+), I think he still gets nearly $200M because there will be little concern about any recurrence of his '21-'22 awfulness and also there should be a different mix of teams on the market - If he does turn into a pumpkin he still locked in his low 9 figure deal. From Jed's perspective it's probably just a one year deal and even if it does go south it's only three. I once again find myself wondering what the plan is at 3B if not Chapman. Because like you say Bellinger/Hoskins makes for a potent pair, and makes for quite the top-to-bottom lineup if we're not resigning ourselves to Madrigal/Mastrobuoni at 3B.
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Yeah it's like the Giants after signing Lee. It doesn't 100% shut the door but it's certainly not a super clean fit anymore. This might be a sign they're looking to do a reunion with Chapman though? Bellinger's fits at this point are the Cubs, a bunch of bad and/or small market teams that probably aren't looking to drop 9 figures, and Mariners/Padres who may or may not have any more cash to spend? Never count Boras out but he and a lot of his clients look to be in a bad spot this winter. That's good news for Jed though.
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I saw a couple days ago a list from last year. It was Nate Eovaldi and a bunch of little stuff. That said last year was weird in that FA was like 90% sewn up by Christmas.
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For 1B/DH I want a lefty and a righty, and ideally one of them would be an above average contact bat. Something like Hoskins and Michael Brantley or Brandon Belt and Justin Turner. Bellinger and JD Martinez might be the most primo version? And I think having that one contact bat becomes especially paramount if Morel or Chapman and their 30%+ K rate are our everyday 3B.
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This is a good list, we can narrow it down a bit further though. Royals are getting Pasquantino back, so between him/Pratto/Melendez/Velazquez they look pretty full at 1B/DH Minnesota reportedly needs to cut payroll (which is why Polanco and Kepler are on the block) Padres seem to have enough payroll room for another move or two, but it seems really likely that anything else major they have will be pitching oriented Rockies have said they're moving Bryant to 1st this season, and Charlie Blackmon at this point requires a lot of DH time Spencer Torkelson finally broke out in the second half last year for the Tigers. That said DH looks wide open if Hoskins is willing to primarily do that (like you say seems unlikely though) Similarly the Angels can't offer 1B (Schanuel) but they can offer DH (unless Rendon moves there full time?) So that leaves just Milwaukee, the Nats, and the White Sox? Even if we open it up to DH-only it only adds in a couple more teams (Angels, Tigers, Dbacks, maybe Mets). But then that also widens the player pool with guys like JD Martinez, Jorge Soler, Michael Brantley, etc. Between this exercise and the surprisingly team friendly Garver deal, feels pretty clear Jed has opportunity to clean up at 1B/DH this winter on the cheap. Even though I like his combo contact/power bat I think I'm moving away from wanting Josh Naylor.
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I would love Luzardo but Vinnie P being available is the real headline here. I'd absolutely kill to have him at 1B for the next five years
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Unclear if this is at all a rumor or if it's pure speculation. The Sox system is not as desolate as it was, but I think they're generally still in a position to take quantity in a deal.
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That's unfortunate to read about Polanco, though the Twins are a smart org and he started multiple playoff games at 3rd last year. I'd guess it's more gray than you've got here. Maybe he's a -5 defender but with that bat that's still the best non-Chapman option on the market by quite a margin. Agreed on Teoscar Hernandez rumors being a nice bellwether for the market thawing. Whatever macho headgames Boras is playing, once guys like Hernandez, Belt, Garver, etc. start moving he's going to have to play ball.
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Regarding the core, I'll say too I think there is a lot to be said for the weak link theory of team building. We saw with the last group how teams with even the most fearsome middle of the order can be busts when you have gaping holes like Almora and Heyward. Personally I am a believer that depth wins the regular season and stars win in October Jed came into this winter in a bit of an awkward spot. $70Mish and 6-7 holes on the roster gives you four options: - Fill 1-2 spots with stars, 2-3 spots solidly, and 2-3 hope you can make it work internally - Fill all (or maybe all but one) of those spots solidly - Blow the farm up trying to do both of the above - Just sort of putz around and burn a year I think most of us, myself included, wanted door #1. Much of the fanbase is freaking out and thinks Jed's doing #4 but I'm not going out on a limb here when I think it's pretty clearly going to be #2 or pretty close to it by the time we hit ST.
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I'm not even a little concerned about it costing that much. Me being biased and the pitcher needing to be Brown or Wicks is something I could absolutely buy. Morel for Alonso straight up is not happening though, certainly not Morel AND a pitcher of that caliber.
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One of Assad/Wesneski and one of Canario/Mervis/Wisdom feels right. I could maybe have my arm twisted to make Ben Brown the arm.
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Curious if this shakes Pete Alonso loose. The Mets aren't that bad on the position player side and Stearns can obviously cobble together a pitching staff. But all their actions and most of their messaging has been that Yamamoto aside they are looking ahead to 2025. On the other hand it's been really quiet on the Alonso front since basically the moment Stearns took over. I'm mostly resigning myself to not pulling down a truly exciting bat, but Alonso is out there and unlike Bregman it's not a huge stretch to think he's available.
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I really wish Wisdom’s ability to competently play 3B hadn't evaporated overnight because like you say offensively they complement each other extremely well. That'd be a fun little platoon to run out there while we wait for Shaw/Murray/etc. to develop
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I think we've talked about the pitching musical chairs, but let's actually lay it out. Teams that definitely want another SP of substance and have money/prospects to throw around: Giants, Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees Teams that want SP help, but TBD what kind of resources they are willing to throw around: Rangers, Blue Jays (definitely going to make a big move, seem to prefer that be a bat), Angels, Mariners (after a SP for bat trade?), Reds, Orioles So then what's available? The lefty FA #2 starters: Imanaga, Montgomery, Snell The "it wasn't that long ago he was an impact guy" guys: Stroman, Giolito The "definitely going to be traded" crew: Bieber, Cease The "there have been some rumblings" crew: Framber Valdez, Jesus Luzardo, Corbin Burnes, several Mariners So overall things are a bit tight, but it shouldn't be that hard for Jed to pull down at least one potentially two of the above. There are four teams that are very in on the SP market, and between Cease and the three lefties four impact guys definitely available. I think where things get dicey is if none of that last group of pitchers is reasonably available or if more than one or two of those second tier teams do in fact go big game hunting.
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto to...the Dodgers? Really? Again?
Bertz replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Market based pricing and the partnership with stubhub removed a lot of the incentives to lock in those ticket packages
