Bertz

Not especially prospect driven but good lord striking out 18 opposing batters in the first game of a playoff series is a statement.

I know pre-game yesterday they said Lopez is coming back in the next few days as well. Palencia and Lopez in Wingenter and Neely out?

To the broader topic, I think it can be helpful to game these things out. Let's say for simplicity Cody's gone, Jed's got $80M to spend, isn't willing to trade major prospects, but is willing to eat a qualifying offer. Would you rather have: Scenario A (Bats Forward): - $25M and a QO on Pete Alonso or your favorite non-Soto OF bat - $8M on Carson Kelly or Danny Jansen - $15M on premium bench options like Amed Rosario and Carlos Santana - $20M on Nate Eovaldi or Yusei Kikuchi - $10M on Kirby Yates or some other quality setup man Scenario B (Pitching Forward): - $25 and a QO on Max Fried or comparable - $15M on a proven closer like Kenley Jansen or David Robertson - $10M on Kirby Yates or some other quality setup man - $15M on a pure DH like JDM or Justin Turner - $8M on Carson Kelly or Danny Jansen - $5M on bench help, probably a RHH platoon OF like Manny Margot

While PCA is the only everyday hitter penciled into the OD lineup young enough to bank on improvement from, none of the starting hitters are old enough to expect more than modest decline. 29-31 is post prime but before sharp decline typically sets in. Happ/Swanson/Suzuki/Hoerner are going to combine for ~14 WAR this year, and the rough expectation heading into next year is likely going to be a smidge north of 12. Unless Jed does literally nothing and Mike Tauchman’s an everyday outfielder, the upside from the youths probably outweighs the downside on the vets for another year or two.

From Cody's POV, pros and cons of opting out this winter: Con: You're absolutely not getting that mega deal you want. Marcus Semien money is not coming in the door, even Brandon Nimmo money would be a big stretch Con: You've got 2/$52M banked with another opt out banked currently Con: You seem to enjoy Chicago and your Cub teammates Pro: You'd be hitting the market as a 29 year old as opposed to a 30 or 31 year old Pro: While you didn't confirm that 2023 was your true talent level, you did confirm that '21-'22 level of production is fully in the rearview mirror Pro: You don't have a Qualifying Offer attached to you, while all the other FA OFs of note this winter will Pro: Harrison Bader is the only other legitimate CF slated to be on the market Pro: Teams still likely view you as a CF. However the path to CF playing time is looking increasingly tenuous going forward, putting more pressure on your bat I would guess Cody opts out and gets something like 5/$110M this winter. It's obviously not a slam dunk though, and I think the only wrong answer is thinking it's clear cut in either direction.

Miguel Amaya got benched for a few days in early July to work on his swing. He came back on 7/7 and immediately started hitting. That mercifully removed an automatic out from the bottom of the Cubs order. Since that day, the Cubs are 3rd in wRC+ in baseball, and 2nd in runs per game at 5.4. Now I don't think the Cubs walk into the offseason with the 2nd or 3rd best offense in baseball. There's a good bit of schedule and a good bit of batted ball luck to those second half numbers. However I do think Amaya (and PCA of course) righting the ship and fixing the bottom of the order unbroke the offense. I would like to add offense to battle any inevitable regression, though I do think it's worth noting that Iowa has 5 top 100 hitter prospects collectively capable of covering every defensive position. Jed should address the position player group of course, but it doesn't *need* impact players. Impact players are always welcome, there should be enough resources this winter to add impact on both sides of the ball, but if paired with balling out on the pitching staff a co-starter at catcher and a better bench wouldn't be the worst outcome in the world on the position side. The pitching staff though is kind of the opposite. It needs impact talent, and not really depth so much. On the SP side Steele and Shota are great, but neither is a paragon of health, and as low velo pitchers are very prone to rapid drops in effectiveness even setting aside injury. Jameson Taillon is a boring league average starter. The young guys all have questions around health (Brown, Horton), ceiling (Assad, Wesneski, Birdsell), or both (Wicks). Adding a playoff caliber starter, even if he's not an ace, just radically changes the complexion of this group. Similar story in the bullpen. Hodge is a GUY. There are a bunch of other guys who it's easy to like but hard to trust implicitly. Adding someone else in the Hodge tier, plus maybe a matchup lefty, would insulate the pen from a rough early season going while Hottovy sorts through those promising but unproven arms. Adding two impact arms would give us a pen that is lock down on day 1, and downright intimidating by June or July.

He's probably north of 50/50 to finish above 4 WAR at this point

Bob Nightengale

I would tend to disagree but I think the one thing that is certain is that there's not a super strong argument in either direction.

Is this actually true? If you had a magic wand and changed Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson into Bryce Harper and Core Seager, the team adds 2.1 WAR. If you used the same wand and upgraded the Cubs' catcher production from 29th to 15th the team adds 2.7 WAR.

I guess without casting too many aspersions about the people keeping the lights on here, some people have a tendency to be pretty dramatic. There is a growing gap between AAA and MLB, but that simply means that guys need to spend between a half and a full season there now. It's a big change from a few years ago where if you sufficiently conquered AA you might only spend a month at AAA and be no worse for wear. Owen Caissie has just about a full season at Iowa under his belt, Ballesteros is at about half a season, and the cohort of Shaw/Alcantara/Triantos have about a quarter of a season. There's not really any of those guys who, barring major struggles or injuries they have not yet had yet, you'd reasonably put their ETA much further out than next season's ASB. Caissie could come up now, maybe not permanently but certainly to play out the string while the standings are what they are.

Which articles? Because the Cubs top 6 prospects are all at AAA so I'm not sure where you're getting any of this.

Pretty solid set of pitching matchups both here in the A's series and during the upcoming Nats series. We do draw Gore, but he's the only pitcher this week worth worrying about. Although on the flip side not sure anyone except Patrick Corbin is outright bad. Would be a nice week to call up Owen Caissie....

I would guess that it's threefold: 1. Losing the A- leagues legitimately sucks. A lot of 19/20 year olds are in a weird middle ground between Arizona and Low A, and you have to think some of them are being impacted by not having a league actually at their level 2. Anecdotally, I do think fewer super-young IFAs are making the list. I think, much like how pitching is getting discounted on prospect lists because of risk, fewer Cristian Hernandez types are just being gifted a spot on pure hype. This is a good thing IMO. 3. Colleges are getting really horsefeathering good at player development. I think, even setting aside structural MiLB stuff, we're probably in a cycle where domestic amateurs are just simply producing more right now. This stuff waxes and wanes. It's worth keeping an eye on and discussing but I don't know that it's yet reached the point of a problem.

It's very funny to me when the same fans who get on Jed's ass about the deliberate nature of this "retool not a rebuild" also say stuff like this. Like the complaining about the former is fair, but if you're also saying things like this you're absolutely speaking out of both sides of your mouth. Not to mention Anthony freakin' Santander is not going to get some mega contract. 4/$100M on the absolute high end? As for his fit on the roster, I tend to think it's pretty clean. It does force you to play Seiya in the field a decent amount, but essentially every power bat out there to be had except Luis Robert comes with that tradeoff. Santander can also play 1B and is stronger against lefties than righties, so he's actually a better defensive fit on the roster than his FA peers like Teoscar Hernandez because of those ~30 games of infield work. Essentially he replaces Cody Bellinger AND Patrick Wisdom on the roster.

I'd really love for that to be Caissie's farewell to (2024 at least) AAA. And Matt Shaw's probably not MLB ready yet, but he's getting close. Even with the increasing difficulty at AAA probably tracking for Memorial Day? And if god forbid there was a Hoerner/Swanson injury next year before then I'd say horsefeathers it and call him up.

It does not have to be an impact guy, but one thing the team needs for next year is a better lefty masher than Wisdom. Because Wisdom’s splits are more high/low than left/right, he's miscast in the role he has on this team. And while I do think he's a quality major leaguer, it makes a lot more sense to swap him out rather than shuffle the guys around him to make his role fit better. All that being said, he should eat against Kyle Freeland tonight.

Even with him taking a step back this year I *love* this Luis Castillo idea.

I'd be curious what trade options there are out there at SP. Is there anyone of major substance available out there aside from the Seattle guys and Garret Crochet? And even the Seattle guys, are they available for prospects or do they require a bat (Busch?) that can be immediately plugged in?

Seems good, especially now that A ball is only about 25% of these games

418 feet!

Sam Armstrong has pretty fringey stuff, right? So even with the strong performance (Ks notwithstanding) not a ton to get excited about? Or is there a plus pitch there somewhere that might portend a fun reliever?

I wonder if the Iowa catcher situation next year is just him and Moises or whether they insist on a 3rd catcher who's more of an adult. Might be an early indication of how real the Cubs actually view Ballesteros' odds of sticking at catcher.

Yeah I think I tend to agree about that position player glut. That 5 pack of bats at Iowa probably needs to be broken up, regardless of how much work Jed can do with just his checkbook. I think in an ideal world you keep Ballesteros, Shaw, and one of Alcantara/Triantos. That way you have coverage of every single position just a phone call away at Iowa, but you're still cashing in some chips to improve the team and not just hoarding prospects.

As Bellinger goes on a heater to close out the year, I do wonder what parts of Jed's plan change depending on Cody's opt out. Mike Tauchman covers a lot of what Cody brings to the table. Not as well obviously, but I'd say the skill gap is smaller than the salary gap. Right now, if Bellinger opts in, there is ~$50M for Jed to play with this winter. Cody opting out makes than closer to $75M. At $50M you simply can't do all the necessary winter shopping in free agency, or least you can't do it well. A trade or two of substance feels more or less mandatory. At $75M though? You can probably pull off a good offseason with just money if you're willing to eat a Qualifying Offer. Santander ($25M per?), Carson Kelly ($8-10M), Nate Eovaldi ($20-25M), and David Robertson ($12-15M), easy peasy. So if Cody opts out, does Jed just take the path of least resistance and do his shopping all in FA? Does he still cover the bat or the SP in trade to make money less tight the following offseason? Does he push his chips in and make a five or dare I ask six moves of consequence? I would dismiss the latter out of hand if not for the fact that he's trying to earn an extension.