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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Jared Jones apparently is going to miss a few months with an elbow issue That team is real bad on any day Paul Skenes isn't pitching. Annoying that they're likely going to line things up for us to see him every series.
  2. Bertz
    Even if Smith ulyimately ends up being awesome, I feel pretty comfortable saying this is a terrible idea. Wyatt Langford had a 91 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR the first 5 months last year before going nuclear in September and salvaging his season. Zach Neto didn't hit as a rookie. Nolan Schanuel had a BABIP filled September callup before getting humbled last year. There's just not any reason to think you can skip the upper minors and be better off for it. Especially given that Smith's not likely to add a ton of value on defense.
  3. Bertz
    Not watching, but GameDay has several substitutions happening at once so likely the latter
  4. Bertz
    I'd assume Brujan still gets cut, but if he's IL-able you can potentially cut a pitcher like Ethan Roberts or Gavin Hollowell to open the 40 man spot.
  5. Bertz
    Everyone on the Reds besides Elly and Hunter Greene was really good in one of 2023 or 2024 and really bad (or hurt) in the other. So it's not hard to see them getting a good dice roll and being quite good, the talent is clearly there, but the most likely scenario is them being a really top heavy 78 win team yet again.
  6. Bertz
    I know he got traded in late ST just last year and went on to have a wonderful year, but I'd be somewhat worried about not getting the best out of Cease given the timing and circumstances around a move right now. On top of that, part of the reason for acquiring another starter is the slew of injuries Brown/Wicks/Horton had last year. But currently all three guys are healthy, and aside from one disastrous inning in Japan both Brown and Wicks have looked great all spring. Now I'm under no illusion either guy will outperform Cease, but at this moment I'd probably roll with them and evaluate rental starters in July. Especially since Brown and Horton are probably on an innings cap and even in wildly optimistic scenarios need to slide into the bullpen later in the summer.
  7. Bertz
    Stuff models love both Pressly and Thielbar. Morgan and Brasier combined for a 2.57 ERA last year.
  8. Bertz
    I mainly only care about the radar gun for Pressly. He was south of 93 in that game against the Dodgers, which would be no bueno. If his velo is fine we default to ST being meaningless for a vet like him.
  9. Bertz
    This is really good. I'll say that I tend to be an xFIP truther when it comes to smaller samples, so I don't view Brown as an especially large regression candidate. Though that's possibly counterbalanced by fairly stark L/R splits, teams might push that advantage more this year. Nate Pearson is a similar case, though he does have a longer track record of being dong prone so I'm not as quick to handwave it away. Miller's a pretty prime regression candidate. I do trust him as a matchup guy, but I wouldn't want him facing any halfway decent lefty in a leverage opportunity. I also think Jameson Taillon might be the biggest regression candidate of them all. Especially since he doesn't appear to have clawed back any of the velo he lost between '23/'24.
  10. Bertz
    I'd say it's most likely a sign that Rojas will head to SB rather than straight to Tenn.
  11. Bertz
    Why do you think they are televising Monday and Tuesday's games and not today or yesterday's? Even with the tourney on, weekend games would surely have a better ROI no?
  12. Bertz
    God forbid the crew at Marquee take a couple days off after traveling halfway across the world and before a 6 month season
  13. Bertz
    Everyone's pro labor until they're mildly inconvenienced
  14. Bertz
    Based on how teams are laying out their early season rotations, it looks like the Cubs are catching a couple breaks after Arizona. - Rangers are lining up deGrom as their #5 which would have him miss us - Dylan Cease and Michael King look slated to miss the Padres series at Wrigley. King wouldn't pitch in the series in San Diego either Weather or injury can obviously change things but every little bit helps with this tough early season schedule.
  15. Bertz
    Via Fangraphs That's average contact and good (but hardly otherworldly) power. I don't want it to sound like I'm crapping but this whole thing is just getting very silly.
  16. Bertz
    64.4% coming into today. If he were an MLBer last year that would have placed him between Zach Gelof and Will Benson. Ranked 282nd of 286 hitters with 300+ PAs. And I don't think Smith's anything is all that rare or special. He looks like a good hitter that will end up with a wRC+ in the 120 neighborhood and play a passable 3B. It's a comparable overall package to guys like Caissie, which is why he ranked comparably on offseason prospect lists.
  17. Bertz
    Miller going on the IL was the last puzzle piece. Feels like it makes Brown being named the 5th starter just a formality. Whoever loses the battle between Brujan/Workman gets cut, that opens up the 40 man spot for Keller, and that is that between now and Thursday, barring additional injury.
  18. Bertz
    Taillon and Boyd are pitching today and tomorrow. I'm guessing that means the rotation to open in AZ will be Taillon-Boyd-Shota-Steele.
  19. Bertz
    1. You shouldn't let spring training change your mind about a player 2. If you're going to ignore the above, probably worth acknowledging Cam's contact numbers this spring are awful Cam Smith's a good player, but I see very little to suggest he's MLB ready. I also think if he hadn't been traded he would (correctly) be viewed in the same tier as Caissie and crew.
  20. Bertz
    Luke Little's alive as well. Nice I had assumed he'd open the year on the IL but maybe not.
  21. Bertz
    Nico's starting today! Unsurprisingly, none of the other starters are. Workman and Brujan are, and I'd presume they're the only ones who made the Japan trip who will play.
  22. Bertz
    The options are: - Someone gets put on the IL - Hodge or Pearson gets sent to Iowa - Someone gets cut Considering we didn't see Miller at all against the Dodgers, I agree if they want Brown to stay up in the bigs Miller's probably the casualty.
  23. Bertz
    Eli Morgan got optioned to Iowa. That answers the question of whose roster spot Brad Keller would take. Last questions for next week are whether Brown makes the roster and which of Workman/Brujan does. I'd guess "no" and Workman respectively.
  24. Bertz
    I swear so many Cubs fans don't watch any other baseball
  25. Bertz
    I did some statcasting at the link. But the tl;dr is that the very limited statcast data we have on him from this spring is pretty sterling. He's got just three tracked balls, but all three are over 100 MPH including an opposite field triple at 106. You wouldn't necessarily think it, but going 106 the opposite way in the air is extremely impressive. 148 guys in MLB managed it a single time last year. 74 did it more than once, only 15 did it at least five times. Hernandez did it in one of his first three tracked balls, so chances are decent that's not even where he currently tops out. Based on the handful of guys I looked at, their actual max exit velo was 5-6 MPH higher than their opposite field in the air max. So that'd give Cristian an implied max in the ~112 range. That would put him in line with guys like Marcus Semien, Randy Arozarena, and Wyatt Langford. As a 21 year old shortstop. He only had 5 homeruns last year, so I don't want to get too over my skis. But it looks like he has at least 55 or 60 grade raw power *today*. He's of course got to turn that raw into production before any of this matters but it looks like the special skillset we were promised when he signed is there.
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