Bertz

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I would hate this so hopefully this is just Morosi being Morosi

Looks like Shota has his AAV of 13.25 instead of his actual salary of 13.5. That minor nitpick is all I can find Otherwise everything else looks right. I generally tend to think of payroll in terms of LT dollars, but unlike some years this year there's not a lot of difference between actual salaries and AAVs so it's probably not worth nitpicking. $241 LT payroll limit vs. $220 but ignoring benefits and minor leaguers is very tomayto tomahto.

Via fangraphs depth charts the Mariners rank: 21st at 1B 22nd at 2B 18th at SS 24th at 3B 25th at DH They also already have a higher payroll than they have at any point since COVID before they make a single move. I'd be surprised if they have more than one move of substance salary wise in them. I'm sure they love their young starters, why wouldn't they? But there are only so many ways to upgrade their crap infield without spending a bunch of money that Jerry seems unlikely to have available to him.

I tend to think that, setting aside the injury risk that exists with every pitcher, the two outcomes for Birdsell are that he stays in the rotation and wildly outpaces his prospect ranking, or similar to Wesneski platoon issues force him into relief. The stuff is above average, the command appears above average, there have yet to be major durability or injury concerns. You just look at that delivery and yell "reliever!" and also there's not currently an up to snuff reverse split pitch in the repertoire.

Yeah Jerry HATES making trades

I think beyond any idealogy, the user experience on Twitter has gone way down the last few years. Community Notes is the only positive change during his tenure. There's also network effects. Less so for other verticals I follow but most of the sports people I care about have made the jump (or at least started cross posting) over the last week or three.

Jesus I had heard their OF situation was bad but the Phillies' current outfield is: Austin Hays - Brandon Marsh - Nick Castellanos Their payroll for 2025 is already $25M higher than it was in 2024 as well. Dombrowski is going to need to get creative. Actually they make a ton of sense for Tauchman. Tauchman for a reliever...Alvarado?

The Phillies want help in the outfield (and at the TDL were reportedly sniffing around Bellinger specifically) and in addition to adding Bellinger directly being able to get Castellanos off the grass would help as well. I would probably not do it, I'm not so desperate for dongs that I'd be okay with the defensive hit, but it's absolutely worth thinking about.

Totally, there's some risk there and honestly I'm increasingly of the camp that even if we added an unequivocally ace like Tarik Skubal I'd want to add two SPs this winter.

As, I believe, the highest guy on Kikuchi, I figure it's worth elucidating a bit on why he'd be a strong signing - At a topline, I expect that Kikuchi is the 3rd best pitcher in this FA class behind Burnes and Fried right now. I also think the gap between any of the top 3 (or Snell for that matter) is pretty nominal. Maybe half a win between #1 and #4 - Despite being right there with Burnes/Fried/Snell on talent, projections are that Kikuchi is going to make something in the $60-80M range. Snell will get around double that, Fried about 2.5x, and Burnes about 3x. I expect whoever signs him him to "win" this round of free agency on a $/WAR basis - Despite being 33 (which is why he won't get 9 figures), Yusei probably has the most upside of any FA pitcher on the market. He leveled up significantly immediately upon going to the Astros behind some very straightforward tweaks to his arsenal. You probably shouldn't expect *that* as his true talent, but the Blue Jays are pretty clearly behind the curve on pitching development and you can pretty safely assume he's better than his Blue Jays numbers - To the above point about upside, and also when wondering how he'll age, it's worth noting that Kikuchi was 6th among left handed starters last year in fastball velo. He was 5th in Stuff+ (his whole arsenal not just his FB) and 3rd in PitchingBot's stuff - Kikuchi does come with risk. He has always given up more dongs than he "should" given his peripherals, and while there are zero flags in his performance as an Astro it was only 60 innings. He was mostly bad before 2022 - It's not enough of a reason on its own to do this signing, but you have to think having another Japanese teammate in the rotation would be a positive on the Sasaki pursuit

This might be more on the Bluesky folks themselves and less on web folks like you but getting skeets to embed as cleanly as tweets would definitely make the transition easier. Especially now that it seems like a critical mass of writers have migrated over.

I believe at one point Jed mentioned, either directly or through the guys at the Athletic, that they value the picks lost for a qualifying offer at around $20M. So I think there's just a fairly high threshold where "oh and another $20M on top of the cash" isn't a backbreaker. I would guess given how he zeroed in on Taillon two years ago that the threshold is a good bit higher than even the $80M he got. For simplicities sake in my head if I'm trying to predict Jed a QO for any 8 figure contract is a no go, while at 9 figures it's at least believable he'll pull the trigger. We unfortunately only have an N of 1 in Swanson.

I think if he was a strong defender you could squint and see a fit with his platoon numbers, but as is there's not really anything he does well. On top of that catcher is probably the spot on the position player side where it's most key to bring in a real upgrade in case Amaya faceplants again.

Lamenting requires some tether to reality

So we've just skipped right past whining about every rumor and moved onto whining about theoretical fits we don't like simply existing

Looking at the Park Factors on Fangraphs, Wrigley has been average or lower in terms of homerun rates every year starting with 2016, and even before that wasn't super high. Whether global warming or the scoreboards or the construction in the neighborhood it's been a while since the wind blew out often enough for Wrigley to net out as a hitters park.

Generally best not to bet against Passan but Nick Pivetta with a qualifying offer attached does not feel like a likely target. Without the pick? Sure, the stuff models ADORE him and while there's a gap between his peripherals and his ERA, it's pretty easy to chalk that up to Boston's terrible defense. Kikuchi is much more straightforward. He has always looked like an ace, but settled in as merely pretty good. But after going to Houston and making some very straightforward adjustments (mainly throwing fewer curveballs) he looked like an absolute ACE down the stretch last year. If you think he's even 80% of what he was in Houston going forward, it's a no brainer to sign him for $60-80M when Fried's going to get more than double that and Burnes is going to get ~3x as much.

I'm more comfortable than most when it comes to older pitchers, but any of these guys feel like a poor fit for this team. The Cubs are not really hurting for innings. Presuming a separate addition closer to the front of the rotation (whether by FA or trade), and presuming that Wesneski is fully considered a short relief option, this is still the Cubs' rotation depth Steele Imanaga Higher End SP Taillon Assad Brown Wicks Horton Birdsell There are obviously question marks on health or performance or both for many of these guys, that said there are 9 starters you'd feel at least somewhat comfortable with starting a game next April. That's not to say you can't add additional starters, but I think if you do add more SP depth those additions need to add either talent or certainty above the level of the guys already in house. If you're giving up the freedom and flexibility to swap between the optional depth/prospect types, there is a decently high bar to clear.

One blessing about this situation as opposed to something like Ohtani or Yamamoto last year is it shouldn't hold everything else up. Sasaki is probably not going to sign until January, but whoever signs him will presumably have to shift to a six man rotation, or at least a modified one. Combined with his nonexistent salary and teams should be able to operate independently of his decision. Maybe a handful of trades involving low cost SPs might hold out for his decision? But it's unlikely to be the industry pausing deal Ohtani was last winter, thank god.

For what it's worth the guys at the Athletic threw some warm water on this this morning. More or less belief internally seems to be if he doesn't go with the Dodgers thr Cubs have as good of a chance as anyone.

Presumably Kelly and Higashioka get essentially the same deal. Jansen maybe a bit more? You could put your tin foil hat on and wonder about O'Hoppe's availability, but my guess is this is meant as a partnership/mentorship deal.

This is a big part of it. The list of teams where you can construct a deal for Hoerner that makes sense for both sides really seems to begin and and end with the Mariners? I feel like most deals with that narrow of a potential scope are destined to not materialize. Though Jerry does love making deals so maybe there's a shot.

Something that got lost a bit in the Passan article: he expects the SP market to move pretty quickly while the bats might take a long time again

I mean a healthy amount of it is semantics. Like these are the pitching WAR leaders from last year among free agents: Burnes - 3.7 Kikuchi - 3.5 Fried - 3.4 Flaherty - 3.2 Manaea - 2.8 Eovaldi - 2.7 Passan's comment tied them to Kikuchi, feels like if it didn't include the words "mid market" there'd be like 80% less whining right now?