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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Apparently this Seattle Times writer today followed up and said the Mariners "covet" Nico.
  2. Bertz
    85 is probably the auto-pilot number, what they'll hit without really taking any big swings. They're at 82-83 wins right now, and have ~$30M to spend. That $30M buys you on average about 4 WAR on the FA market, but because the Cubs (thankfully) don't have a lot of replacement level players on the roster 4 WAR does not cleanly net out to 4 Wins. 87-88 wins takes a trade of substance or two, but it's doable. I don't see a path to the mythical 90 win projection without Jed really going outside himself, but 88 wins with a loaded Iowa roster in this division would have me pretty happy heading into the year.
  3. Bertz
    The team already projects back in the same ~83 win range they've been stuck in. Unless they trade Bellinger and just call it a winter they're going to be ahead of last year on paper. It's probably not going to be by as much as we'd like but it'll be a noticeably better roster.
  4. Bertz
    The FA catcher market basically broke down like this - d'Arnaud is the best bat but the glove is getting dicey and he's old - Higashioka's probably got the best glove, and he had a good '24 with the bat. He's also old - Jansen actually has the upside to be an impact player, but he's made of glass and was kind of ass this past year - Kelly's generally well rounded and had the best '24. He was a mess in '22 and '23 though which obviously was not that long ago If none of these descriptions sound amazing it's because they're not. The worrying thing is this is the top tier of guys, things get bleak the next tier down. We're pretty much Kelly or bust at this point unless there's a trade option we're not considering.
  5. Bertz
    I wonder if Jansen didn't want to go somewhere with such a capable counterpart to fight for playing time. Sign Kelly and it's not harm no foul. I liked Jansen better but not appreciably. Miss on Kelly and there's a big drop to the next guy (Elias Diaz probably?).
  6. Bertz
    Grrrrrr
  7. Bertz
    Do we think there's any chance that, in the same way a Nico Hoerner trade doesn't require a backfill because of Matt Shaw, the team doesn't view a need to backfill Cody Bellinger because of Owen Caissie? The team will CERTAINLY not open next year with both Shaw and Caissie slated for everyday at bats. But would they allow for either depending on circumstances? Add a bench player at the same position on the opposite side of the plate for some early season platoon protection, and otherwise focus the freed up resources on pitching?
  8. Bertz
    Levine including the Mariners as a team talking about Bellinger and a few hours later Kaplan saying the Cubs have inquired about Luis Castillo is definitely a thing that makes you go "hmmmmm."
  9. Bertz
    The bullpen's in such a weird spot because one reliever in the Yates tier and I'll still be nervous with PTSD from this past April but two more relievers in that tier and I'll suddenly become unreasonably confident that we've got a late 2010's Yankee bullpen of doom on our hands.
  10. Bertz
    Yates is pretty damn high on my reliever pref list. Him and Jansen would make me very happy.
  11. Bertz
    Tucked in an article about the Cubs' efforts to trade Cody Bellinger, Bruce Levine today also clarified targets for two other items on the to-do list: catcher and the bullpen. As the top two catchers on the (pretty weak) free agent catching market, Danny Jansen and Carson Kelly have long made sense as Cubs fits, but neither has had many tangible ties. Further, the note about Jansen's trade talks this winter appears to be new reporting. On the relief front, Chafin and Yates are both new names. Again, they make sense logically; the Cubs need left-handed relief help. Chafin is a long-time quality lefty setup man, and Yates' changeup allows the righty to function like a southpaw. View full rumor
  12. Bertz
    More information about "Bruce Levine On Cubs' Catcher and Relief Targets: Danny Jansen & Carson Kelly"
    Tucked in an article about the Cubs' efforts to trade Cody Bellinger, Bruce Levine today also clarified targets for two other items on the to-do list: catcher and the bullpen. As the top two catchers on the (pretty weak) free agent catching market, Danny Jansen and Carson Kelly have long made sense as Cubs fits, but neither has had many tangible ties. Further, the note about Jansen's trade talks this winter appears to be new reporting. On the relief front, Chafin and Yates are both new names. Again, they make sense logically; the Cubs need left-handed relief help. Chafin is a long-time quality lefty setup man, and Yates' changeup allows the righty to function like a southpaw.
  13. Bertz
  14. Bertz
    I think I'm here as well, but it depends on how much of Bellinger's salary is just going to turn around and be used on his replacement. If the plan after a Bellinger trade is e.g. to immediately turn around and sign Anthony Santander or Pete Alonso, then Bellinger and Hoerner are largely independent workstreams. If there is not a specific target who opens up after a Bellinger trade, and you're just trying to get some walking around money to apply generally, then yeah it feels like a potentially big problem to deal both guys.
  15. Bertz
    Not quite, but he's way stepped up the rumor mongering recently which sets off alarm bells in my brain.
  16. Bertz
    Generally I wouldn't be in a rush to extend SPs early in arb. Do it in pre-arb where you get a discount or hold off until as late as you can IMO.
  17. Bertz
    I was definitely disappointed in that comment as well. That said unless/until Bellinger's gone the two weakest full time positions on the roster are Amaya at catcher and Assad at 5th starter. Given the lack of high end talent seemingly available at catcher, if you are aggressively chasing improvement it almost logically has to be in the rotation.
  18. Bertz
    The question is how much this is the market and how much this is the "playing the next two years in a AAA park" tax. It's certainly some of both.
  19. Bertz
    We knew the A's were going to need to pay a premium to get people to Sacramento but wowza
  20. Bertz
    I wouldn't read too much into the specific names Levine chose. He likely heard "three top prospects" and then listed off three of the Cubs' top prospects. If the conversations are as nascent as he says there wouldn't be that much clarity around names. I generally hold Shaw a level above the other Iowa bats and Brown a level above the other arms. I think 3 "top prospects" is totally fair for Crochet, but Shaw or Brown getting included definitely impacts the third piece. Like e.g. Caissie, Assad, and Triantos? Cool bag him up. Want to swap in Shaw for Caissie? Triantos now becomes Cristian Hernandez or Johnny Long.
  21. Bertz
    That's what the reporting sounds like. I feel like he fits their roster either way, but it sounds like he's their backup plan for Soto specifically. I'd assume because they really want Bregman or Adames at 3B and can't do one of them AND Soto AND Bellinger.
  22. Bertz
    Not enough meat here to be it's own topic, but a few things stood out: - After signing Boyd, the team is not necessarily going to add another starter. They are looking to improve, and further improving the rotation is a logical place to do it, but another SP is not written in pen on the shopping list in part because of the quality depth in place - The team is "aggressively" trying to improve, and with financial realities that probably comes via trade. Not a lot of sense of what it looks like exactly, as to paraphrase "Who the hell saw the Michael Busch and Isaac Paredes trades coming?" - The way they talk it feels like Bellinger's almost certainly gone, and it won't necessarily be to the Yankees but it feels pretty likely to be to the Yankees
  23. Bertz
    Think less about Goldschmidt specifically and more about being able to shop in the $15M aisle instead of the $5M one.
  24. Bertz
    There's very little Madrigal in Triantos. Madrigal is a unicorn in both good ways and bad, Triantos is not a common archetype, but he's not really extreme at anything. I think Amed Rosario is a good comp for a "disappointing but still a quality major leaguer" type of outcome for Triantos. James seems unlikely to even be allowed the attempt to fake it at shortstop like Rosario has, but he's also going to rack up a lot more steals. Would still end up in that same ~1.5 WAR range.
  25. Bertz
    One fun thing about this hypothetical is that even though Nico only makes $11M, dealing him AND getting a league minimum SP suddenly gives you budget breathing room to comfortably tick all the other items off the offseason to-do list. Like I don't know if this specifically would work because I don't know that Goldy would accept the reduced role. But something like this the rest of the way forward: - Paul Goldschmidt 1/$15M - Clay Holmes 2/$24M - Danny Jansen 2/$16M - Josh Rojas 1/$5M Or if you'd prefer, still go cheap on the lefty masher but add two separate RPs in the ~$10M range. This feels much cleaner than the path forward after a Bellinger trade if it's truly on the table.
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