Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Steamer's utility is in its availability not its accuracy. ZiPS is the gold standard among public systems.
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On top of this, the Cubs' farm currently is basically this Where the car is Iowa. So I don't want Jed to be a drunken sailor in dealing from that stockpile at AAA, but getting a borderline ace and essentially an IOU for a 2026 2nd round pick isn't the worst thing in the world from an organizational health standpoint. In moderation of course.
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The projections like Cease and King pretty equally, but Cease has WAY more track record (including shocking durability for someone who throws as hard as he does) and way better pure stuff. I imagine that impacts trade value to a meaningful degree.
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Festa is the roster casualty
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I suspect when ZiPS does their full run that Dodgers/Braves gap will close a decent amount. Even with the Dodgers adding Sasaki and Teoscar since that run, the IP totals for the rotation in the Fangraphs depth charts are laughably optimistic. That said I do otherwise think that feels right. Braves and Dodgers are the two best teams in the league (probably either league), and we're as good as anyone not in the NL outside of those two. Because of the sorry state of the NL Central we've hopefully got a fairly direct path to a playoff spot.
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King would be exciting and take this offseason from good to great. Even if you don't extend him, you can go into next winter with two QO free agents and basically commit yourself to retaining one of them (obviously Tucker would be top priority). I will say, given the drop-off from Cease to King, plus the presumed inclusion of Suarez, I don't think you can include Brown or Alcantara. I think Preller needs to take back a bit more quantity over quality in this instance. Assad/Wicks/Caissie instead of Brown/Alcantara for example.
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He has said before he thinks Caissie's contact issues are disqualifying. Justin Crawford running GB rates in the 60s and 70s is fine though apparently.
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Nope. Maddux threw 92 when he was young, which by early 90's standards was well above average. Similarly his K rate was 18.9% from 91-01. The league K rate at that time was 16.2%
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Caissie has his share of warts, but I do feel like some prospect fatigue is setting in and he's not getting proper credit for his age relative to league. He was the 10th youngest player to get at least 200 PAs at AAA last year. If he was at AA he'd have still been around 30th. I can't help but wonder if he'd put up a ~160 wRC+ a level lower if he wouldn't be getting more love right now.
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Keith Law: 14 - Matt Shaw 33 - Kevin Alcantara 46 - Moises Ballesteros 74 - Cade Horton No Caissie, which shouldn't surprise as Law's been the low man on Caissie for years. Cam Smith at 43 and Zyhir Hope at 58. No Jackson Ferris.
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A backup 1B feels pretty essential. Even if it's not someone exciting, Ty France for instance, it's the most definitive remaining need for the team. The backup 1B right now on a short term basis is probably Miguel Amaya? For a long term basis it'd be Ballesteros. That's bad, really bad. Carlson is a fun look for a backup CF. Prior to 2024 he even at his worst mauled lefties. He's young enough that you can easily believe last season was an aberration. And if he still sucks oh well by Memorial Day decent chance we're ready to call up Alcantara.
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Fall of the house of Busch-er
Bertz replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in General Baseball Talk
Kind of wild that this team just punted an entire offseason. A couple outfielders and a couple pitchers and this team is in the same neighborhood as the Cubs and Brewers. Or in the other direction sell Gray and Helsely and you likely bring back some very real talent. Instead they're just sort of idling because of this awkward Mozeliak/Bloom succession plan. -
I would take the 1B. That said there *should* be room for two of these. In that case I'd take the 1B and the reliever. One of Mark Canha/Justin Turner and one of David Robertson/Kyle Finnegan rounds this roster out very nicely. You also can't totally rule out a Bregman or a Flaherty. Though I think at this point I'd take the two complimentary players and just plan on making another big deadline move.
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For Busch, I'm really hoping they have Caissie moonlight at 1st. He should be the injury backup for any of Happ, Suzuki, Busch, or Tucker IMO. On top of that, I'd be floored if they don't add a RHH 1B to the bench. On a short term basis. like finishing out the game Busch is injured in, each of Happ, Tucker, and Amaya have some 1B experience. For PCA I suspect the backup will be one of Brujan/Berti/Canario to open the year. But I suspect the reason they're not sniffing around for a real backup CF is that they want Alcantara to spend a good amount of time on the MLB roster this year and handle that role.
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The Athletic guys said similar:
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Bello is a bit more than I was expecting to give up. Not necessarily talent wise, but that much talent and NOT on the 40 man is a bit more than I expected.
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We haven't seen the financials on Kirby Yates yet right? I suspect all of the old FA old closers come in the $12-15Mish range. Pressly would IMO slot in slightly behind Yates and slightly ahead of Robertson/Jansen if he were a FA. I'd guess the cash isn't more then $1-2M, and if it is it is basically acting to buy the player(s) going back.
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This feels relevant given the Cubs literally added Colin Rea. I'd imagine Taillon and Boyd grade out well by this measure as well.
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I wonder how long you give Pressly in a situation like this. Obviously it's not the trade deadline or the winter meetings, there's some time to think things over. But do you give him a day? The weekend? Until the #2 guy on the Cubs' list is about to sign elsewhere?
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Yeah that's kind of hard to turn down. That said 3 years is a bit of an awkward contract length for him as a 30 year old. He'd re-enter FA too old to get more than ~3 years again but clearly wouldn't have banked enough before that for that to feel totally worth it. I wonder if this is a situation for a swell-opt like what Shota or Gerrit Cole have. - Cubs and Bregman agree to a 3 year deal - Bregman has the chance to opt out after year 1 - Cubs have a chance to "nuh uh" that opt out by adding 2-3 years onto the original contract
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- alex bregman
- matt shaw
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Sure, that's not wrong. I think once we get off of paper into real games and injuries start taking their toll the depth will make it's mark though. Like we're all underwhelmed by Colin Rea, but by volume he was the #3 starter for the Brewers in '23 and the #2 starter last year. And both teams comfortably won the division. The point there is not "Colin Rea is secretly good actually" but instead the point is that the rotation we talk about in February and the one we get in June are very different and not in a good way. I mean hell look at last year's Dodgers for an extreme example.
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I'm really talking myself into the Pressly/Robertson combo. That has a real chance to give us a Yankees style bullpen of doom. It also leaves money for at least one more quality bench add, pretty decent chance for two. It's not as sexy as Bregman or Flaherty, but we'd be looking at a strong roster top to bottom.
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Fun fact I just found. Pressly projects slightly better than any Brewers reliever. They will still have a better bullpen than us on paper, but between our improvements and their losses it's not looking like the major advantage it has been the past 8 years
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At this point if you add a closer and a backup 1B, this team is plausibly complete. Closer will likely take low 8 figures, and the 1B can vary (at the low end there are always Garret Cooper types available). So I suspect that we see a closer added very soon here, and then Jed can just be opportunistic for whatever scenario presents itself as the best way to spend the remaining ~$20M. Flaherty? Awesome. Two closers? Great! Max Scherzer? It's worth a shot! I'd guess this ties into Bregman. Bregman is the best player still available by a healthy margin. He also, at a likely ~$30M salary, does not fit as cleanly into the team's budget as other options. So I would guess Heyman is not making things up, but in practice this is Jed and Boras trying to nail down with certainty that Bregman to the Cubs won't work so that both sides can move on.
