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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I really like his swing. Walks aside has had a rough start to the season, hopefully this is the start of a heater.
  2. Bertz
  3. Bertz
    Ironically he got doubled off in today's game on a ball he shouldn't have been running on.
  4. Bertz
    I hate performative yelling. I think it's eyewash that appeals to the lowest common denominator. That said, Rob Thompson's body language staring down a 9 game losing streak being most analagous to "guy in the doctor's office waiting room annoyed that someone who showed up after him has already been called back" feels like a major problem in the other direction.
  5. Bertz
  6. Bertz
    62% contact rate in A ball?
  7. Bertz
    Ooof man if I was a Phillies fan I'd be in a daaaark place right now. I expected this to be the season their window started really closing but slamming like this is a real yikes
  8. Bertz
    Wicks' velo way down. Hopefully just dead arm given where he is in his ramp up
  9. Bertz
    Ben Brown has 19 innings in 24 team games, which prorates out to almost 130 over a full season. I REALLY like having a leverage-y long reliever.
  10. Bertz
    I've been very impressed by Corbin Martin. He's not pitched incredibly well, but he's come into some pretty tough spots (medium leverage but the tough part of the batting order) and kept things under control. I feel like we've had a lot of these reclamation type arms come in and pad their stats during garbage time and wilt as soon as they come into a game with any drama (Colten Brewer the most egregious example IMO). I don't know that Martin has the stuff for more than middle relief but I appreciate his seemingly steady heartrate.
  11. Bertz
    It's *probably* just a slump, but it's worth noting that this is by a slim margin the worst slump of his Cubs career. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-busch/26319/graphs?position=NP&statArr=50&legend=1&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2024&end=2026&rtype=mult&gt1=22&dStatArray= His bat speed is down and his groundball rate are up, both bad things but I think we still need more runway before they hit a sample size we worry about.
  12. Bertz
    The Boston Red Sox have gotten a 57 wRC+ out of their 2B this year and a 40 out of their 3B. Jed needs to torment Breslow until he sends Payton Tolle our way for Shaw or Ramirez.
  13. Bertz
    This is so interesting to me. Is this pure SSS or is there something about hanging out in the 9 spot that's getting him pitched like he's Bryce Harper?
  14. Bertz
    Ty Southisene had another triple, his ISO is almost into triple diggies. Not quite as egregious as Mathis but he should probably be at SB too. Maybe bump him up in a ~month with Hartshorn?
  15. Bertz
    I saw this mentioned elsewhere and admittedly my first reaction was an eye roll, but why not BJ Murray for the last bench spot? - Craig barely uses that spot, so you don't want to put an actual prospect there - Ostensibly it's only use is to have a viable infielder in reserve in a game where you've swapped Shaw out mid-game - Clearly Kingery is not bringing a gold glove to the table. He's a better athlete but clearly the lack of experience is hurting him - Murray's 2024 killed his prospect shine, but you'd expect a decent at bat from him. Certainly better than Kingery, and worth noting that he'd generally be called on to face relievers with big platoon splits Kingery provides baserunning value Murray doesnt, he also provides coverage at 2B Kingery doesn't, but still feels like we could squeeze a smidge more out of that roster spot without expending any resources?
  16. Bertz
    Presumably Rolison or Little out for Boyd. And I'd guess Assad needs another day of rest after his Sunday start but is a bullpen option starting tomorrow? Bullpen won't be in good shape until Palencia is back, but I feel like it's back to being in okay shape. We got very lucky that the offense went supernova while the pen was in tatters.
  17. Bertz
    Looks like we went 6-0 against them in '22 (WTF?!?) but otherwise hadn't had a winning season against them since '18.
  18. Bertz
    I'm sure someone is gonna tell me like "we did it in '24 dufus" but it feels like we haven't won tbe season series against the Phillies in a long time?
  19. Bertz
    Dansby waiving off Kingery on that popup to end it killed me
  20. Bertz
    I was just thinking "it's probably a bad sign we've heard crickets on Harvey" so pleasantly surprised there. Feels like this west coast roadtrip these guys are all out, but Maton/Roberts activated at the start of the next homestand and Palencia by the end of that homestand? Not the worst outcome.
  21. Bertz
    Yeah I feel like this was really on display last night. Playing against the Phillies with our pre-season #6 starter on the mound with our top 5 relievers out (3 on the IL two just down for the day) and we still win a comfortable 5-1 game. Questions about the top end talent on the roster are fair but it's hard to see how they don't continue to pile up wins.
  22. Bertz
    I know I'm getting too in the weeds but Cabrera's due positive regression on the K front. His contact rate against is a hair under 74%. Among SPs last year between 73 and 75, the average rate was closer to 25%. He's been dong lucky but strikeout unlucky. I'm still expecting the approximately 3.50 ERA guy we were sold.
  23. Bertz
    I think the Cubs don't care about Stuff+, but that's very much "our model and this model don't align" and not "we don't care about pitch models". Painting with a broad brush but the Cubs tend to prioritize guys who work east/west (which pops off more in Pitching Bot) than north/south (which Stuff+ prefers). If you see a guy go in opposite directions in different models I'd suspect an affirmative choice. Cabrera's down in both so I don't think anything intentional is happening. Maybe it's a SSS mechanical issue, hopefully it's weather, maybe sequencing/tunneling gains outweigh pitch model losses (Cabrera's fastball is finally in the black by pitch value), but Cabrera's stuff is definitely down.
  24. Bertz
    His velo is down too, though I'm wondering if that's at least partially weather. He hasn't been pitching in tundra or anything but for a Dominican player who's career to this point has been in Miami weather in the 40's probably still has an impact. His velo in the spring was fine and his velo that first start against the Angels (when it was weirdly warm) was also fine.
  25. Bertz
    Yeah I feel pretty good about where the team is at right now. White knuckling the bullpen a bit until Maton and Palencia are back, but that seems to hopefully be a short term problem. With the *very* notable exception of Horton I generally feel as good or better about each guy on the pitching staff than I did coming into the season. And at the plate I'm not feeling like any of the guys struggling are going through anything more than just a slump? Mayyybe Busch? Things are going well on the farm too, so that also gives me some confidence that reinforcements can be acquired if need be (though obviously temper expectations for what level of big game hunting Jed will have the appetite for).
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