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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
  2. squally1313
    Teams with a less than 10% chance of making the playoffs and their good, potentially attainable starting pitchers: White Sox - No one Angels - No one Nats - Mackenzie Gore (two more years of arbitration, would cost a lot, would be another lefty, is very good at pitching), Trevor Williams (historically more of an innings eater, but 3.35/3.26/3.91 in 102 innings in 2024 and 2025, $7m this year and next) Marlins - Sandy Alcantara (has been BAD this year, and not in an unlucky way, but an elite pitcher the three eyars before this, $11m this year and next year with a club option for 2027) Pirates - Andrew Heaney (saw him last week, another lefty, wouldn't classify him as anything better than a #3 but cheap and not signed past this year), Mitch Keller (generally good in a Jameson Taillon type way, but trending in the wrong direction and owed $15m a year for the next three years) Rockies - Getting bored of this but...Marquez hasn't been good since 2021, so unless he's been mailing it in for the last 240 IPs and it's still in there, pass. Freeland is probably actually bad and not just Coors Field bad, but his type plays up in front of our defense I guess?
  3. squally1313
    I don't want to nitpick because I think we're all coming to the same conclusion (which is: go get a good starter, immediately), but the version of Shota we've seen most of the year was not likely to continue giving us the results we'd gotten out of him so far. Ks were down, walks were up, fly balls were up...all pretty significantly in the wrong direction metrically from his 2024 season where he generated 0.5 wins per month. He had 174 Ks and 28 walks last year, this year he had 34 Ks and 14 walks. Is it better than Chris Flexen? Almost assuredly. Is it a noticeable difference over a duration of 8-10 starts? No. It's baseball, and baseball is dumb in ways like 'the Cubs were undefeated in games started by Gage Workman'.
  4. squally1313
    I mean, maybe? The original comment was 1-2 months, for one. Replacement level players aren't free, as we should know given the amount of heartburn everyone gets for the inevitable negative WAR guys we toss out every year. Like, the replacement level winning percentage, per FG, is .294, which translates to a little under 48 wins. So you're basically paying to try and generate an excess 40 wins. The team control and mandated deflated salaries for younger players should, in a well run organization, give you a chunk of wins for minimal financial commitment (Busch, PCA, Brown, Amaya being extreme examples, but also guys like Steele, Hoerner, etc are playing for far less than they'd get on the open market). To use outdated numbers, you had PCA, Busch, Shaw, Amaya, and Assad preseason projected for around 10 wins while making a combined $3m. So all of a sudden you're looking for 30 wins with $230m (or so) to play with. It's...not unreasonable. Also in this particular context, Shota is the 'ace' mostly by default. Steele put up the same fWAR production as him last year in 40 fewer innings. I've been calling for more pitching because these guys break all the time, but the team's success isn't as reliant on Shota being an elite pitcher as other teams are reliant on their aces.
  5. squally1313
    Because the implied math there is that an ace is three wins better than a replacement pitcher over the course of a year, and those are very valuable wins.
  6. squally1313
    Cubs up to a 75.8% chance to make the playoffs, 71.2% chance to win the division, projected to finish 9 games ahead of the rest of the division with everyone else playing below .500 ball the rest of the year. Everyone has understandably built in weariness of the Brewers doing Brewers things, but the Cubs offense is much better than advertised and the rest of the division might just be Objectively Bad.
  7. squally1313
    Back to back games with our ace on the mound, I guess? (Get a starter)
  8. squally1313
    Good road series win, let’s hope shota is ok, excited to see Horton
  9. squally1313
    I’m saying he’s fine as a backup first baseman getting the short end of a platoon because, even with those exit velocities, he was comfortably an above average hitter in a very large sample size of PAs last year (and also all those other years before that).
  10. squally1313
    I know 40 is a number that ends in zero and so people make generalizations about it but it kinda changes the narrative when he was an above average hitter at ages 37, 38, and 39
  11. squally1313
    Alternatively, consider a sample size larger than periodic starts over 30 games
  12. squally1313
    Weird how that happened thought he was dead
  13. squally1313
    Quintana is a mirage and the cubs are otherwise a much better team.
  14. squally1313
    You can tell how good or bad the cubs are doing based on who is the whipping boy for the fans. When it’s just your typical .500 team, it’s the shortstop who gets 4+ wins a year. When they’re playing really well, it’s the backup first baseman with a 120 wRC in each of his last four seasons. Real first world problems going on right now.
  15. squally1313
    I mean, we probably have a pretty good idea that they're good. Lindor, Soto, Alonso aren't some up and comers riding hot streaks.
  16. squally1313
    Hot take: The Brewers are part of an easy two series stretch. Quinn Priester and Jose Quintana tomorrow and Saturday are two bad pitchers.
  17. squally1313
    Series win on the road when going up against two top 15 pitchers in baseball YTD, outscored them in total by 13 runs. Will take it every time. Happ finally gets to play a central team and hey, what do you know, wRC up to 117 on the year. You guys all really hate Dansby huh
  18. squally1313
    Seiya .999 OPS
  19. squally1313
    To be fair, the pace of the Cubs offense in the last 5 games would have put them 16th in all of baseball last year, so this isn't some crushing slump they've been in.
  20. squally1313
    Well that was all very dumb and depressing and bad. Hope he’s ok and everyone else is mentally alright. Go beat Skenes tomorrow.
  21. squally1313
    Right center I believe. So maybe half that?
  22. squally1313
    I don’t know enough about the dimensions of the stadium walls but from the commentary and the looks on everyone’s faces it seems pretty bad
  23. squally1313
    Game is less stupid
  24. squally1313
    Time to drop Tucker to the bottom of the lineup this is ridiculous is Craig asleep or something
  25. squally1313
    You can't knock his consistency (at least 2 fWAR every year from 2001-2013). But PCA has 4.7 fWAR in the 153 games he's played this year and last year, and that matches Hunter's best year. Don't mind this one. Couple years over 5 fWAR, had some wild defensive swings that PCA can probably better but also it seems pretty unlikely PCA gets to 300 HRs.
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