squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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That's also more HRs than Dansby had last year (in 138 more PAs). The defensive metrics are down, opportunities appear to be the same so could be some decline there from his very elite level, but if he could get back the 25 HR power that would go a long way to aging gracefully.
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Happy and Swanson were chasing a combined 76 points of xwOBA going into today. Happ at 104 wRC after the single and Dansby at 98 wRC after the dong.
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Getting a little bit of perverse joy at how quickly the bad karma of not getting a starter came back to bite Jed
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Can they move to that concept when we aren’t down four bullpen arms
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Yep. Also, picking today to criticize Shaw, when he went like 0/79 in early July, then got a week off to reset and work on things, and has since gone 326/340/674 in 47 PAs is pretty weird timing. (alright I get it, this selective sample size thing is fun)
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I get the theory behind it, but it starts to strain a little bit when you use a 9 game sample for Carson Kelly to show he's in a slump, but, for example, Kyle Tucker has a 144 wRC over his last 9 games. Like, in Carson Kelly's last 27 games, he has a 152 wRC. I don't think you can claim both are 'currently' slumping in this scenario.
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Yeah I don't know if it's a $500m skill or whatever, but there's something really impressive about a clearly struggling guy still putting up a .365ish OBP in July. Pretty much everyone else (with the exception of maybe Hoerner)....when they slump, the floor is just so much lower. But Tucker just decides to put up a 25% walk rate and 2/1 BB/K ratio over the last two weeks until he figures out his swing/his finger gets better/whatever.
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I'd love to see if you could (at least temporarily) try to turn Brown in a short relief monster. The K and BB numbers are a step in that direction. Seems redundant to carry three lefties in the pen, and we're theoretically going to have some combination of Rea, Soroka, Assad, Taillon, Wicks all around to slot into the 4-5 and long relief roles.
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Are Soroka's third time through numbers uniquely bad or is he just getting the same penalty that most other pitchers get? We've got a temporary problem of Rea and Soroka going back to back if Counsell is going to have tight leashes on both. If we're trying to our relievers going three games in four days, we're down Palencia, Keller, Kittredge, and Thielbar tonight. Pomeranz with 20 pitches yesterday is probably fine, and then you've got Brasier, Rogers, and whatever is going on with Ben Brown (hasn't pitched since last Sunday). The Reds lineup as laidout by the FG Depth Chart page seems pretty easy to gameplan for. Elly sucks against lefties so you can line up Rogers and Pomeranz against the top and let Brasier/Brown deal with the bottom. This is about as good as Lodolo has been (1.32/2.08/2.77 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 9.88 K/9, 0.66 BB/9 the last four starts including against the Dodgers, the Mets, and a hot Miami team) so this one might be tough. But we're also good, so we should go win.
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do you think home/road splits are real or are you just using them to make him look worse than he's actually been?
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I mean, I also would like to see the team go 17-7 in a 24 game stretch, but I'm not going to be overly disappointed if they don't reach that level. Winning series is pretty cool with me.
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A fun thing this board does is watch the team win a series with a walk off and then be like ‘well maybe they’ll finally start to play well after this’. Like, they just won! Three of the last four! That counts!
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The five baserunners we have in three innings today, obviously
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Ignore me
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The cubs were projected to win 86 games per zips.   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-official-and-hopefully-not-too-regretful-2025-zips-projections/ they did the thing where they did the team preview and if you added it all up to a replacement level number you ended up in the low-mid 90s but then the standings came out and they were pretty regressed across the board for playing time considerations.
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Very few people projected them to be a low 90s win team. We played like an upper 90s win team for two months and, depending on how much bad faith you want to bring in when picking the sample size, have played like an 84-89 win team since then. The Brewers running this hot is really starting to break people’s brains. Go look at the dodgers over the last month, or the Phillies, or the Yankees. The astros are 3-7 in their last ten. This stuff happens to everybody. I have a bad taste in my mouth from the failure of the trade deadline like everyone else. But the team is still good.
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Since July 1 the cubs and Mets are an identical 15-11, the padres are a half game better, the Phillies are 12-13, and the dodgers are 11-15. Guess the brewers should just coast to the pennant since all these other teams are Mediocre and nothing can change in the next two months.
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You're better than this.
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We're -188 to win tomorrows game (and therefore the series), so theoretically you can add that to the list. FG has us at between 59% and 64% win probabilities for each game against the Reds, so that looks good too. The Pirates where we miss Skenes didn't make the list? What are we doing here
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This is collectively insane. We're one pitch away from being 16-10 since July 1. We have to settle for 15-11 and people are talking about the Cardinals (the horsefeathers 8-16 in July Cardinals) catching us. Christ.
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Did the wind only blow when the orioles were hitting
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The 2018 brewers went 40-39 in June, July, and August before going nuclear in September. The takeaway being that you can play like this for a stretch, but expecting a three month run is a totally different conversation.
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lol the Venn diagram of people who thought this team would top out at 85 wins back in March and people absolutely livid that they’ve been playing to an 85 win pace in a sample size clearly designed to make them look bad is just one big circle.
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Kyle Tucker going into today has been a league average hitter since July 1. Who do you suggest take those ABs to improve that performance
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If I said the cubs had elite pitching because they’ve given up 4 total runs in the last two games would you think that was a smart opinion
