squally1313

Strop up, Maples down. Fun* fact, Jose Quintana, in his four innings on relief like, 2 months ago, has been our second most valuable reliever this year. *Not actually fun at all.

3 HRs, with a .113/.234/.217 slash line, 124 PAs. Though I don't know how unusual that is compared to like, league average. Rizzo has 2, but puts up a .226/.297/.340 BaseballRef splits, if interested.

Well the issue with the dongs is that being on pace for 30 in 2019 MLB isn't all that impressive anymore, as evidenced by the fact that he currently sits 69th (nice) in home runs right now. Sure, you hope there's more coming as it warms up at Wrigley, but projections are only counting on 27 total, which puts him right above last year. His best tool right now is his plate discipline, but as you mentioned, it almost seems too good at some points, and I know anecdotally we can all point out at least a few ABs where he gets totally screwed up by the umpire. If all he's going to be is a 30 HR guy, he needs to find a way to get a walk rate as close to 20% as he can and be some Joey Gallo-lite. That probably involves adding some 2 strike protect swing, which would obviously hinder the power...Rizzo's approach would be ideal, but we know how rare that is.

What kind of fWAR do you think he's going to put up over the next few seasons? I mean, as much as it pains me to admit it, it's hard to really disagree. Outside of the top defenders/prime defensive spots, it's probably foolish to rely on positive defensive value, especially for someone with his clear limitations. He's made plenty of strides in the area, but he's never going to be fast and he's going to get turned around 4-5 times a year. That being said, from what I can tell, the only real difference offensively being 2018 and 2019 is that he's down 25 points in BABIP. Walk rate is down 1%, K rate barely up, and his batted ball profile shows a few more line drives, a few more hard hit balls, and significantly less soft hit balls (10.9% to 16.8%). Basically I don't think he's too far off from that 115 wRC. Whether a 115 with slightly negative defensive value is enough is a different question, but I think he's still an above average hitter.

Schwarber, KB, Rizz, Javy, CarGo, Vic, Heyward, Russell, Kyle 1. Weird that Vic is getting the start here and not just his usual Darvish start day, especially after Contreras donged last night. 2. Two days in a row CarGo gets the starting nod over Almora, which is interesting considering Almora just had one of his more useful (though still incredibly luck based) months of his career at an .823 OPS, whereas Heyward fell back to earth with a .618.

I would think pretty much everyone who hangs out in the Draft Day thread can figure out who this is.

What's the theory? He alone is getting stolen signs? No idea. Maybe? It’s strange, regardless. I mean, no. That is 100%, most definitely not the case.

Just stop dude. He put up an 1.116 OPS last month. Ok, great. He then collided with Heyward and has struck out 10 times in 4 games+, while taking 0 walks. You're right. I take it back. Think we could maybe trade him for a reliever?

Just stop dude. He put up an 1.116 OPS last month.

Almora and Bote are solid defenders though, which Gonzalez definitely isn't. Batting 5th, playing RF tonight (over Almora, with Heyward in center). I guess we'll find out soon enough. Edit: I also have zero problems with David Bote's .289/.364/.500 against RHP in 129 PAs this year.

dont worry, theo is already working on new urgency slogans for next march 6th in the majors in wRC, 4th in wOBA, 3rd in OBP. I can't even imagine the outrage among the other 83% of the league that has been worse than us this year.

His main problem, as has been explained a few times already, is that he is a bad baseball player in his current form, and he has always been a bad baseball player away from Coors Field. If we need to rely on his health and durability in any way, we are so far beyond fucked.

Wow this was a fun read this morning, good job everyone.

Extend the netting yesterday. The best seats in the house have had to look through netting since forever, and the people behind the dugouts complained for about a week before they realized you can't see anything. For Wrigley, bring it down to where the wall meets the foul line, or just go all the way if you're worried about screwing up sight lines with the rope at the end. As an added bonus, will make players tossing balls into the stands much more interesting, as opposed to the first two or three rows just past the dugout that basically get two balls a person every game.

crazier than all of these combined, for me, is that steve trachsel was briefly on the 2007 team. Steve Trachsel is by far the pitching name I remember most (pre Kerry Wood) from my childhood, and the best year of his career, fWAR wise, he put up a 5.66 ERA.

Yeah I get that there'd be a serious mental factor to it that pitchers would need to overcome. I guess just in a hypothetical that eliminates that concern (like in a video game world)...is it even legal?

There's probably an obvious answer I'm not thinking about....but with no one on base, no need to frame/receive the ball, and no umpire to protect, is there a rule that requires someone to catch/attempt to catch the pitch? Or can they go be a ninth fielder? I remember something about number of players starting in fair territory, but even like 40 feet back to catch foul tips/foul pop ups seems more 'effective' defensively.

Yeah I realized like fifteen minutes ago I had spent an hour debating an idea you just tossed out as a half joke. But...I was really bored.

Here's a super weird question. In the future where strikes and balls are called electronically, and there's no need for the umpire to stand over and call the pitches....are teams still going to be required to employ a catcher in that position?

Yeah I guess just given the roster, I still prefer Baez, Rizzo, Contreras, and Bryant locked into the line up, and then having everyone else basically be able to play multiple positions and use the matchups (while still leaving all of them around to see if one or two of them can develop into someone worthy of being an every day player). With the current situation, you've got 5 spots for Heyward, Schwarber, Russell, Bote, Happ, Almora, and while I have definitely lost some hope for their development, I still think there either is hope for a solid regular (Schwarber, Happ, ughhh Russell) or that they have their uses in the right situations (Almora against lefties, as an example). Bringing that number down to 4 just to slide in Francisco Cervelli doesn't really excite me right now.

If Contreras finishes with a career year like he's on pace to, and then in the offseason you go sign the catcher that was like, one of two or three people to be move valuable than him (and is four years older), and tell Contreras, undisputed starter at catcher for the last 3 years, to go join the revolving cast of outfielders, it's pretty close to kicking him out. Why wouldn't he be a regular starter in the OF? No platoon player he. He'd get more playing time, and arguably end up being even more valuable...this doesn't seem like it would be a very hard sell. In the hypothetical world where Grandal is available, wants to sign, and the front office is cool with it and won't use it as justification to not do anything else, sure. I'm in. In the other scenario, where we're plucking some version of Francisco Cervelli off the FA pile (still at around $10m/year)...I think we're making some marginal upgrade at the expense of a possibility of something more. We're stuck with Heyward on the roster regardless, and I assume you aren't bouncing Contreras around the outfield. Locking him into a spot makes the chance of a Schwarber, Happ, or Almora as above average regular Cubs very remote. And yes, for that group, maybe it's time for them to horsefeathers or get off the pot. Maybe it's past time. But doing it to bring in some revolving door of David Ross 2.0s doesn't seem like the solution. And this is all without mentioning that we're less than a year removed from Contreras falling off a cliff in the second half last year.

I am far from an expert on catcher defensive stats, and really don't even know how much of it goes into the catcher WAR on FG. But this site (hopefully reputable) makes it seem like the difference between Contreras and Grandal for framing has been 5 runs so far, with Contreras being pretty much exactly average. He had that weird thing with catcher's interference early on, which seems like it's gone away, and he's got a really strong arm. I think this is more eye test than reality. http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

Catchers who put up 2.5 WAR or more last year: Grandal, Realmuto, Alfaro, Stassi, Cervelli, Flowers, Gomes. All seven of them. Six more if you want to move down to 2 WAR. 47 outfielders over 2.5 WAR, as a comparison. I would love signing good players, regardless of the cost. We've spent the last 8 months cursing out Tom, Theo, etc for not signing good players. It's become clear to me that we might need to be a little picky on where we decide to spend big money, and kicking out our catcher on pace for 4.3 WAR making essentially the league minimum doesn't really seem realistic. One question: Do you think the Cubs get more long-term WAR on Willson's contract by keeping him at C and signing a 2 WAR OF, or playing him in the OF (with a dash of C) and signing a 2 WAR C (who admittedly would cost slightly more than the 2 WAR OF)? So essentially your question is does Contreras have more value as a starting catcher (125ish games) or some sort of outfielder/third catcher (140ish games). In that hypothetical, it'd be close, but I still think he has more value at catcher. But given your admission that a 2 WAR catcher is more expensively than a 2 WAR outfielder (and I didn't even check to see which of those catchers is even hitting the market), why not take your 2 WAR catcher money and go get a 3 WAR outfielder, since there are a lot more of those out there? Or spend it on a Hamels replacement? For me, the time to move Contreras to the outfield (or to another team) is if/when Amaya starts looking like the real deal, which is hopefully in about 12 months. Right now he's getting BABIPed in A+, but he improved his walk rate, K rate, and ISO, and from what I've read he's solid behind the plate. If he keeps developing, the timing works out with Contreras getting more expensive and the grind of every day catching taking its toll.

If Contreras finishes with a career year like he's on pace to, and then in the offseason you go sign the catcher that was like, one of two or three people to be move valuable than him (and is four years older), and tell Contreras, undisputed starter at catcher for the last 3 years, to go join the revolving cast of outfielders, it's pretty close to kicking him out.

Fair...combining the two options. A (very hypothetically) defensively passable Contreras in CF and Grandal behind the plate is obviously an improvement over the current plan. But for all that to take place, the following would have to be true: 1. Grandal accepts our offer, which will be higher than the $16m someone tossed out considering he's making $18m this year and is on pace for his best offensive year (though, oddly, his defensive fWAR looks like it will decline for the fourth straight year). 2. The argument that catchers decline earlier doesn't apply to Grandal, since after this year he'll have 6 straight years of at least 115 games, and will be 31 years old. 3. The same front office who sees a pitching staff with 4 guys over 30 and zero viable backup plans, and a bullpen that is basically just a picture of a garbage fire, and also sees Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel wanting to play for contenders, and has yet to connect the very obvious dots, is cool moving their super cost controlled catcher to a brand new position to replace their cost controlled outfielder and add a $20m/year catcher in his 30s to an infield that is going to get expensive very soon. ...so you're saying you don't want to sign good players because they are expensive? It obviously doesn't have to be Grandal to work. Get some other 2.5 WAR catching bum on a two year contract and trade Almora for cost-controlled pitchers who don't resemble dumpsters lit on fire. Catchers who put up 2.5 WAR or more last year: Grandal, Realmuto, Alfaro, Stassi, Cervelli, Flowers, Gomes. All seven of them. Six more if you want to move down to 2 WAR. 47 outfielders over 2.5 WAR, as a comparison. I would love signing good players, regardless of the cost. We've spent the last 8 months cursing out Tom, Theo, etc for not signing good players. It's become clear to me that we might need to be a little picky on where we decide to spend big money, and kicking out our catcher on pace for 4.3 WAR making essentially the league minimum doesn't really seem realistic.