squally1313

I see Kyle has moved his daily optimism from the Covid thread to here. I'll take it where I can get it I guess. Might as well start out hot, and couldn't ask for a better way to do that than the Pirates at home, ignoring my Pirates over 58.5 bet. Take 4 or 5 from them the next couple weeks, split with the Brewers, and see what happens from there.

I don't think that would be the thinking at all, but rather what is a backup catcher most likely to excel at. Starting every 10 games isn't exactly the ideal situation to stay locked in at the plate nor is 16 starts at catcher making or breaking the offense. Defense is a much more stable and likely route for these guys to make a positive impact. Also also would add that if they're just carrying two catchers, defensive subbing late in games makes sense whenever possible to sneak some rest in for Contreras. We've already kinda gone through Contreras taking on extraordinary defensive workloads compared to everyone else, whatever year that was he caught like 40 games in almost as many days due to injuries and an extreme schedule, and it was ugly There's got to be some worry that giving a backup catcher job to someone with no experience at all is going to take you towards a guy who neither hits or defends Fair point on Higgins being potentially terrible behind the plate. If that's the case, whatever. Conceptually, if you're only carrying 2 catchers I think you're less likely to make late game subs there. If you sub Contreras out and then something happens to Wolters (like, say, he swings at a pitch that hits him in the balls), then you're in a tough spot. Every 10 games is probably less than what a backup should actually play, though obviously I don't want a personal catcher this year because we don't have someone of Caratini's ability level. In the 20 starts a year, I'd prefer someone who can approach competency at the plate, but ultimately it's not going to make much of a difference, and it sounds like this is just a placeholder for Romine anyways.

I’m not a big believer the backup catcher has to hit. Hell, believing the starting catcher *has* to hit is pretty fresh for me. I care most that Wolters can defend, has experience, and yeah generally prefer backups to be opposite hand hitters if available. I like Higgins as a multi-position third catcher for a ML debut, maybe he can close the season as the primary backup I can see an argument for a Nico type who can come in late provide an upgrade. We aren't making defensive substitutions if we're only carrying two catchers. There's just no logic there. Whoever it is is going to start every 10 games. There's no basis for that particular game requiring more defense over offense. If it's a net positive, then he should be starting, which he's obviously not good enough to do. If you want to carry Higgins as some incredibly dollar store version of Schwarber, then yeah, can see the value of Wolters here. The rest means nothing to me.

He's equally terrible against all pitchers, so don't particularly care about what hand he is, unless he can trick some dumb manager to make a dumb reliever choice. Would have rather just given PJ Higgins (12.1% BB rate, .895 OPS in Iowa in 2019) a shot, but....whatever.

Rizzo turns 32 in August. ESPN's Free Agent tracker goes back to 2006, and I don't see a single 1B 32 or older getting a 4+ year deal. Pujols was 31 when he signed his huge deal, and Carlos Santana and Jose Abreu got 3 years at age 32, that's the entirety of 31+ year olds getting 3+ years at the position. I always get tripped up on baseball ages, and it gets down to splitting hairs, but Goldschmidt signed a deal with one year left in March 2019 before his (per FG) age 31 season, and the 5 year deal kicked in 2020 for his age 32 season. Definitely a good point that there aren't many, but that seems to be the most obvious comp to the current situation, and it came without any of the past performance vs team friendly contract, more meatbally nostalgia/leadership/community/etc. Rizzo isn't Goldschmidt (though FG likes him better this year), but there's a huge gap between 5/130 and 5/70. Split the difference, front load it (because who else are we even going to be paying next year), and call it a day.

Almost 35 year old Carlos Santana just signed a 2 year, 17m deal after throwing up a .699 OPS last year and garbage defense since forever. Probably conflating posters around here, but all the people who wanted Nico to slug .300 every day because our pitching staff was built around ground balls has no problem dumping Rizz to pay a revolving door of fringe DH types to Roger Dorn ground balls and picks at first for the next few years. To be totally honest I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Is 3/60 or 4/80 insulting? We're talking about a guy with chronic back issues, who's on the back-9 of his career. A 3 year extension that runs through his age 35 season feels agreeable to me. Yeah it's insulting. How many 31 year olds are taking 3 year deals? Rizzo's chronic back issues have caused him to miss all of 41 games in the last 6 years. He put up the best OBP of his career in 2019 and then BABIPed .218 last year, 5th lowest in baseball, while putting up the same walk rate. If we had anybody sitting around who could hit, sure I could entertain spending a year to teach him first base. But look at the bench and the Iowa roster, we don't. So you spend half the Rizzo money for half the production, at best. I understand you're bumping up the AAV, but he's not going to want to go back on the market in a few years. Give him his 5 years, front load it and put in lofty team/performance options, and let him finish it out here.

Almost 35 year old Carlos Santana just signed a 2 year, 17m deal after throwing up a .699 OPS last year and garbage defense since forever. Probably conflating posters around here, but all the people who wanted Nico to slug .300 every day because our pitching staff was built around ground balls has no problem dumping Rizz to pay a revolving door of fringe DH types to Roger Dorn ground balls and picks at first for the next few years.

Unless I'm missing some obvious bat only dude in the minors who's ready to put up above average offensive numbers next year, pretty sure we're still going to be paying about $10m or so next year just to downgrade it anyways (Cubs projected for 3rd in fWAR at the position by FG this year, with all of it coming from Rizzo). Pay him.

Nico is better currently and in the future than Eric Sogard. In my opinion, David Bote is the best option for a starting second baseman. With him theoretically being competent defensively, there's less need for Nico to step in late game like there was last year with Kipnis. They get a day off every week for the first four weeks...I just don't see a lot of ABs for Hoerner in April if we're trying to win. If anyone in the infield gets even dinged up for a couple days, he should be on the next bus to Wrigley and into the starting line up. But getting him 100 ABs in April in Iowa is better than three or four starts and a marginal defensive replacement upgrade for a couple innings in the maybe 50% of games we'll be winning late in. I'm 100% with you here, but I will point out that Iowa is not starting before the first week of May(with rumors it could be later I think) so the reps Hoerner will be getting would be at the alt site in South Bend. Yeah good point, clicked on the wrong link that had an old schedule for Iowa. Still fine with it. Going with a four man bench makes me pretty confident that if Baez/Bryant/Bote went down for a few days they'd immediately make a move and not try to tough it out shorthanded, so think there's a good chance he's up before the 36 games or whatever the number is anyways.

It was, until that signing was Sogard and not a Wong, Hernandez, etc type. Nico’s spring and physical growth doesn’t mean nothing and when it’s him vs a horsefeathers ass player like Sogard the calculus changes. Nico is better currently and in the future than Eric Sogard. In my opinion, David Bote is the best option for a starting second baseman. With him theoretically being competent defensively, there's less need for Nico to step in late game like there was last year with Kipnis. They get a day off every week for the first four weeks...I just don't see a lot of ABs for Hoerner in April if we're trying to win. If anyone in the infield gets even dinged up for a couple days, he should be on the next bus to Wrigley and into the starting line up. But getting him 100 ABs in April in Iowa is better than three or four starts and a marginal defensive replacement upgrade for a couple innings in the maybe 50% of games we'll be winning late in.

Yeah this should be enough to keep us out of the lottery this year, so really the only way it could backfire is if the team blows up before 2022-2023 and/or the ping pong balls make that a really high pick (with a potential added wrinkle of the NBA re-allowing high school players into the draft). Carter still could develop, but don't think his ceiling is greater than Vucevic's present, so taking a shot with the current group (plus hopefully swapping Lauri for a PG) for a few years here.

Is it going too far to say that, if Azlolay wasn't granted that option, they would have attempted to put him through waivers or just cut him? Or they knew more about the ongoing Azlolay option issue and knew there was a good chance they'd get a favorable answer. It would take a miracle for Azlolay to ever be an opening day starter, or really even pitch 200 innings in a year for us. But he's definitely better than Shelby horsefeathering Miller. (and also Alec Mills sucks too, but people squint and see some version of Kyle Hendricks and he can eat up innings poorly, so...whatever).

From what I recall, he joined Team Canada late and they named him their captain. He was the only player on team with any NHL experience. You're telling me he was better served playing down in every sense of the word vs spending a training camp with Patrick Kane and a roster full of NHL players? The head coach coaches Ottawa in the OHL. I hate Colliton, but, no, he wasn't missing out on 'high level coaching he wouldn't otherwise get'. The last three points are generic at best. Guessing there are plenty of opportunities of players either choosing or not being allowed to play in this, given, again, he was the only NHL player on the roster (none on Team USA either).

"Sorry for sending you to a tournament for children, by the time you'll be back we'll be in full on desperation mode so get ready for that, but hey, at least I can blame your (totally avoidable) injury for missing the playoffs again" Sending him to the tournament was probably the right thing to do. No it wasn't.

"Sorry for sending you to a tournament for children, by the time you'll be back we'll be in full on desperation mode so get ready for that, but hey, at least I can blame your (totally avoidable) injury for missing the playoffs again"

Adbert is 26 and not likely to make the team out of spring training. Are we still wishing and hoping on this guy? We're going to have to fill a lot of innings with a group of pitchers that missed 2/3rds of a year last year, if not more. Healthy, able arms, even if marginal, are going to help a lot.

Adbert is 26 and not likely to make the team out of spring training. Are we still wishing and hoping on this guy? We're going to have to fill a lot of innings with a group of pitchers that missed 2/3rds of a year last year, if not more. Healthy, able arms, even if marginal, are going to help a lot.

Haven't felt gross enough to dip deep into the bowels of the internet for further Toews info....no point in holding out hope there right?

As someone with 2 bleacher season tickets that typically splits them up amongst 8-10 people, was hoping for an announcement this week, but dreading trying to figure out how to handle some sort of equitable ticket allocation. That's if they even bother to figure out how to fill 20% of the bleachers.

Most athletes are bad, but this is currently one of the top posts on the soccer subreddit. Not a great look. https://twitter.com/KaraonTW/status/1366135755299553281

I was ready to dispute this, because I think it'll be a minor miracle if they pull double digit points out of those 9 games, but looking at the standings, not sure who else takes that spot. Checked Fanduel for playoff odds and they didn't have any, but I'd probably throw money on Nashville right now. Obviously they've fallen off a bunch from a few years ago, but their current place in the standings is after a lot of Florida/TB games, and I assume they'll have their turn with the bottom of the division soon.

I saw something that said they are 7-1-1 in their last 9, which seems fake but I can't recall them losing very much lately. I think they are 9-2-4 since they started out 0-3. I havent looked at the advanced stats though, so not sure if its a fluky 9-2-4. That said 4 of those wins were against the Wings who are terrible. Either way theyve been fun to watch It is, and they....kinda are? Better than expectations for sure, but the general strategy right now seems to be to keep it a very low scoring chance game and then ride out this very hot power play or settle for the coin flip in OT. Which...sure. But not going to last once they go back to playing the top of the division.

Parlayed over 2.5 on both games today because people have pretty much stopped pretending to work, but our nanny couldn't come so I'm on kid duty. Let's go goals.

I do think Yu is at elevated risk for injury, but even setting that aside you said yourself that ALL pitchers are at high risk for injury. If something happens to Zach Davies, you choose your favorite guy out of the Iowa rotation to replace him. If something happens to Yu Darvish, you choose your third, because the first two are already taking MLB starts. That's on PTR's penny pinching, but those were the realities Jed had to choose from. In a normal season, or with a better team, I take the quality and figure out the quantity later. But this team was thin already, and we're heading into a season that might be apocalyptic on the injury front. Totally get your point, but also think it's a false choice of Yu Darvish or all three of these pitchers. If you really think we couldn't have afforded Trevor William's $2.5m salary without dumping Darvish, sure. But most likely he was going to be here regardless, because those spots got opened up by letting Q and Lester walk.

For sure, I don't want the takeaway to be 'actually there's no difference between Darvish and Arrieta or Davies', if you need to put money on who will be the most productive then you should put all of it on Darvish. What I'm getting at is that because of the mitigating factors to Darvish's productivity(some of which exist for the others, like age for Arrieta or inconsistency for Williams/Davies), you're dragging down Darvish's likely standard to a level where variance can lead to one of those others matching or eclipsing him, and because you've distributed the risk in multiple players, that chance is non-trivial even if it's not the most likely. To try to say this in a more concise way, if Darvish had an incredible season in 2018 at age 31, you would be way more confident of him setting a higher standard than 3.1 fWAR in the following year because he wouldn't have the age or stamina concerns he has now. Since those concerns do exist for 2021, you create greater surface area for other players to match or exceed his productivity, especially when you have multiple players doing so for the same resources. I get the argument that if you throw 3 or 5 or whatever starters of the Davies/Jake quality level out there every 5 days, your odds of finding a 3 WAR performance plus the odds of Darvish getting hurt/somewhat randomly turning bad are...significant? But you're also increasing the odds of having a lot of poorly pitched innings while you figure out if any of these guys are actually any good. I'm ignoring the stamina issue because it's a blanket factor for every pitcher. Darvish can work deep into counts but he decided to stop walking people or allowing baserunners, so I'll take his 19 pitch 1-2-3s over Davies/Jake giving up a bunch of 1-0 line drive singles. Arrieta has fought injuries the last two years, Davies made every start in 2019 but didn't average 6 innings/start. If you're extra worried about stamina, I'll still take 150 innings from Darvish and 50 from....Tyson Miller? than 100 each from Jake and Davies.