squally1313
-
Posts
11,309 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
28
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by squally1313
-
Lots of good answers above but also depends on what you mean/desire by 'truly competing' in 2024. 21% chance to win the division and 38% chance to make the playoffs as it stands now is competing to some. One of those big names makes it what....30%/50%? Conversely, we could sign all four of them and not be at the Dodgers/Braves level.
-
Dead cat bounce for the Cardinals in that they gave Wainwright 21 almost entirely uncompetitive starts in his quest to get to 200 wins after they dropped out of contention. Having said that, agreed with most of the above...team is designed to project well. It's the Cardinals, so they'll maybe find some way to stay healthy and have the hard hit balls land on the track instead of over the wall, but they are definitely going to need to thread the needle a little bit. This is also a really expensive team for their standards already, and that's with the Sonny Gray contract backloaded. FG released projected standings today, Cubs at 81.5 wins, Cards at 84.4. If we can turn this rumored $30m into 3 wins, should put us at the top.
-
2023 xwOBA Mike Tauchman: .345 Chris Morel: .346 Cody Bellinger: .331
-
'Oh no what do we do with an outfielder capable of playing all three positions making $2m who produced 1.8 fWAR last year and is projected for 1.8 fWAR this year' is a problem I would absolutely love to have, in that it implies that like, Happ, Seiya, PCA, Alcantara, and either Bellinger or Canario are all going off to an incredible degree. The guy gave us more production last year than Mr. 'We can't trade him straight up for Shane Bieber', in slightly less PAs, and is projected for more on a per PA basis than him this year, let's just be happy we have him on the roster. Walks aren't sexy, but they're very effective.
-
He said 24-30, Walker was excluded on the other side of his point, which is that they are supplementing the Olds with some very raw talent, which I think Walker still qualifies as given his age (21) and his 0.2 fWAR in 465 PAs last year
-
Yeah I feel like there much be some garbage team out there with a black hole in one of their three outfield spots and an intriguing reliever or an 8th starter or something. Replacing Canario for 2024 purposes, either external or internal, can't be at all difficult.
-
Happ has been the 14th best outfielder in baseball over the last two years and is projected to be the 30th best outfielder in baseball this year. If we end up with two other corner outfield guys who can comfortably exceed that, we'll be in amazing shape.
-
It's just a stupid, bad faith argument. He can go back and pick and choose the players who signed big contracts and turned out good and use that as an indictment against the Cubs FO, because, obviously all those players were desperate to play here, while ignoring all the terrible contracts, the internal development, the very good position the Cubs currently find themselves in, etc. Just sign only good players, idiots, what, like it's hard? The Royals just committed 4 more years and $111m more to a shortstop who is projected to outproduce Dansby by 0.1 fWAR next year. But yes, dick sucking jokes, nice.
-
The Royals had a top infield prospect in all of baseball, gave him 150 starts his rookie year while he OBPed under .300, let him develop into a stud his next year with another 158 games and locked him into a contract where they pay him like $43m over the next four years total, and and in response to that you....want to give Cody Bellinger and/or Matt Chapman, each projected around 3 WAR, $20-$30m a year for 3-7 years while PCA, Shaw, Alcantara, etc all sit around in the upper minors.
-
Cubs payroll is, as of today, $50m higher than the Royals, they have a top 5 farm system while the Royals project as the worst, and have a 12-15 WAR advantage based on current rosters going into the season. Absolutely horsefeathers pathetic.
-
We can't just pick and choose which version of Bellinger we like the best though right? He had 26 home runs last year, good for 41st in baseball. That's 6 more than PCA hit last year in the minors (in 56 more PAs). The 'last year was not a fluke' argument still assumes he traded power for contact right? That's not to say that even 85% of 2023 Bellinger isn't very useful, but even the most pro-Bellinger people here aren't expecting a 15% K rate AND 40+ HRs.
-
This kinda establishes the Dylan cease market right? Because if so, I’m in.
-
Two things that ultimately don’t matter much (the odds of the cubs winning the division, the cubs chances of being ranked as the best farm system in baseball) improved with that trade
-
Cubs sign Hector Neris to 1yr /$9m with options
squally1313 replied to Jason Ross's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
We should probably pencil that into 2025 when we think about future dollars available right? 90 pitchers threw more than 60 games last year, he's essentially done it the last 5 years (when you prorate out 2020). -
You could make the argument for that as a personal preference, but it would seem to go very against the grain given how much they value up the middle defense.
-
Jake Odorizzi as essentially a free flyer is fine. Can never have enough pitching. Rosario doesn't do much for me, Crawford I see the value but when you already have a Madrigal and a Mastro and a Hoerner and Morel/Madrigal/Mastro middle infield plan in case of a Swanson injury, there's probably not any room on the bench for him.
-
Kinda forgot he could play outfield too, good call.
-
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/projection-fight-club-2024/ Some more discussion about Zips projections and the other options out there, with a few Cubs names (Busch, Chapman, Madrigal, Imanaga) showing up on the 'most controversial' lists. Separately, there's a blurb about Tony Kemp that makes me think he's an intriguing bench option, though I don't think we have the space for him at the moment.
-
Just because he gets reps at third doesn't mean he'd be a good first baseman. If that's the case, then we can no longer give Bellinger a point vs Chapman in the 'position versatility' argument for playing first base The rest seems incredibly dependent on the bat. Can he increase the walk rate, decrease the K rate, or validate the 40 HR/year pace he was on last year? If so (ie: if he improves on last year), he can DH, play first, start the 'how valuable is Hoerner in a trade' conversations. If he's a 115ish wRC bat (higher than all of his projections) without a defensive position....that's a DH that starts 100 games while letting the normal starters take 'breaks' there. And honestly trade bait. If he's worse offensively? Get what you can, emergency backup, etc.
-
29th in wRC, by far the best offensive projection on the team (Chapman 62, Happ 89, Busch 98, Morel 140, lol Cody 152, Mervis 153, Dansby 162). Just hate his base running and defense.
-
The goalposts keep moving. I mean, Zobrist, Heyward, Lackey, and Chapman weren't even on the 2015 team. Travis Wood gave you all of 1.2 fWAR in 2015 and 2016 (all in 2016!). They brought the kids up in 2015, let them sink or swim (KB and Russell have over 500 PAs as rookies, first time for Soler over 100 PAs, rushed Schwarber up), and then figured out where they wanted to supplement from there.
-
Dansby projected for 25th, Hoerner for 31st. For anyone who's curious, Happ is 83rd, Busch is 89th, Seiya is 96th in the top 100. So yeah, 7 in the top 100 would be pretty impressive, and more than the Dodgers (5) and Braves (6). However, that again makes the lack of top end talent pretty glaring given that we knew the huge gap in overall talent. Dodgers go 4, 18, 20, 43, 48, Braves go 1, 16, 21, 37, 39, 52.
-
I know, the projections are pessimistic, wrong, whatever. But Bellinger isn't projected to be a 3 WAR guy next year, and that is presumably with the computers thinking he'll spend most of his time in centerfield (and crediting him accordingly). So if you want to give PCA a legitimate shot, you're either waiting for an injury, temporary solution, or you just signed a 2.5 fWAR first baseman to a long term deal, $20+m/year deal. Basically: Sign Chapman because we have the money lying around anyways. Win the division with that team. Upgrade from there.
-
I guess, to look at it another way, if you want to go all in on immediate success, which is fine....wouldn't you focus on taking those prospects that are all two years away in your mind, but in theory have plenty of value on the market, and trading those guys for immediate contributors? Why beat everyone else on the open market for two non-elite guys when you could consolidate all this talent that isn't ready and you want to block anyways into guys with higher ceilings or more reasonable contract terms? Or is that something else that you don't think Hoyer does?
