squally1313

Not successfully.

I'm sure this is statistically wrong, but I hate bringing in a closer with two outs in the 8th. 90% of the time these guys throw in the bullpen, jog in, warm up, and pitch until the game is over. Making them go and sit in the dugout for the bottom half of the inning, one that typically involves pitching changes, and then sending them back out there after not throwing for 10-15 minutes, seems like it would totally throw them off their rhythm.

We have a .358 BABIP in this fifteen game stretch. Like 30 points higher than any other team. If running a high BABIP (like, a > .320) was a skill, someone would have figured it out by now. Hit the ball hard, as many times as you can, to get the odds in your favor. But in a small sample size like this, it's mostly luck. Like, what about 'it landing safely' isn't luck to you? Did the hitter scan the field real quick and find an uncovered spot? If so, they should just always do that!

I mean, no, in this case a large part of it is definitely luck.

I love Nico Hoerner. He should not be getting more PAs than Happ, Belli, Dansby, Morel, Jeimer, and probably Gomes.

This article is a week old now (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cubs-are-finally-putting-their-run-differential-to-good-use/), but long story short, besides the last two nights, we weren't getting much benefit from those situations: The Cubs have blown 21 leads, but they also boast 22 comeback wins, per Baseball Reference. Meanwhile, their 10-12 record in one-run games is bad but not atrocious. On top of that, they haven’t faced any more position players pitching than the average team, and in fact, they rank dead last in run value produced against position players, per Baseball Savant. They also rank ninth-last in run value with a position player of their own on the mound. Clearly, they aren’t padding their stats in non-competitive at-bats. The Cubs have been on the winning end of blowouts more often than not, and they’ve shut out their opponents more often than they’ve been shut out. That said, even if you remove the blowouts (5+ runs), they still have a +13 run differential, or a .520 Pythagorean expected winning percentage per Baseball Reference’s calculation. If you remove the shutouts, they still have a +25 run differential and a .526 winning percentage. All this to say, the Cubs haven’t just run up their run differential with a few lopsided victories. And even if they had, it’s not entirely fair to look at the numbers without blowouts and shutouts – that’s how good teams win.

Purchased tonight. Remain pretty disgusted that I live in Chicago, pay Comcast $100/month and Youtube another like $70/month and I can't watch this team. But...I like this group a lot.

Candelario being an actual top hitter in the league, much less back for the Cubs, is a little surreal for me. I have vivid memories of seeing his rookie ball walk rate (16.4% in 305 PAs) back in 2011...I had like, just figured out that walks were Good, and I was just convinced this kid had to turn into a stud. Took 12 years, but here we are. Baseball man.

Lolllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

Pretty insane when you realize that means the Cubs could have been shut out the last two nights and still have the most runs scored post-break

Just think, this Reds team was one Must Win Game away from running away with the division. They're going to finish 7+ games back of whoever the division winner is.

I don’t have marquee, are the cubs still shitting the bed offensively?

Man we’re already getting shut out through six innings?

The other guy is Luis Robert, by the way.

Player A: .280/.341/.538, 8% BB%, 32.1% K%, .345 xwOBA Player B: .267/.320/..553, 5% BB%, 29.3% K%, .348 xwOBA (General point: This version of Morel is much more than 'a good start for the bench')

This Williamson guy made 8 starts in AAA this year and put up a 6.62 ERA with a 27/20 K/BB ratio and almost 2 home runs per 9. This impressed the Reds organization enough to call him up to Cincinnati and plug him into their rotation, where he has, somehow, put up a 4.48 ERA that is at least half a run better than all the predictive metrics. Don't remember, but seems like he was a pretty highly regarded prospect in the Mariners system before being included in the Winker/Suarez trade, after which he promptly fell apart. Given the current state of the Reds pitching, it's not hard to imagine why. Tomorrow's pitcher (Luke Weaver, still, somehow) is even worse (how does 18 starts of a 6.80 ERA sound). These guys suck, go win some games.

We are significantly better than this reds team

Ok fine, this can be a must win game

To the extent this is true, this is very good news on the Ohtani front.

Idiots, clearly aren't World Series contenders, what if the dude they traded turns into a 4 WAR guy

And if they win they'll have to play 5 games better, still pretty tough! The difference in those is one night (in the next two months) where the Cubs win and the Reds lose. Like, yes, obviously winning is better than losing. But kinda getting the sense that everyone on Team Sell is secretly a little excited to declare that the Season Is Over.

No, but the sheer magnitude of games makes it pretty much impossible for any particular game to be a 'must win game' if you don't have the benefit of being able to layer on the end of season leverage that comes from two teams playing the first 150-whatever games to a near tie.

He put up a 4.4 fWAR each of the last 2 years (11th in the league both times), and is on pace for 3.9 this year (15th in baseball). Small step back this year but absolutely an elite pitcher.

I mean, it's also August 1st and there are 55 other games left after this.

(Declares tonight a Must Win Game so as to avoid putting too much pressure on the next two games)