soccer10k
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North Side Baseball Article Archive, Part 1
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Everything posted by soccer10k
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Well that’s good news. Light Gausman up tomorrow.
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Of course it did, we were a couple games up still at this point. My post was more in reference to the chances of the Brewers winning the division. They’ve got a much better chance of making the playoffs though. Part of that is the same reason it’s unlikely they win the division. All they have to do is catch one team to make the WC so those 7 H2H games between the Cubs and Cards, plus the Cards-Nats series means 10 losses total for those three teams. So while they probably have to go at least 10-3 to win the division, 8-5 might be good enough to get them a WC.
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Hader gives up a 2-run homer. 7-6 now.
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Lucroy on to Waveland.
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Wow. Braun hits a grand slam.
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SCHWARBER DONG
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Brewers load the bases with one out. Moustakas and Braun coming up.
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Another solid outing from Chatwood.
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Brewers were never winning that series, so I’m good with it. Opening up a little breathing room is important without Rizz being out. Hopefully we take care of the Reds and the Nats horses shut down the Cards. Neither team sweeping was all that mattered to me.
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DONG
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Walk and a homer and the Brewers blow the lead.
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Yeah, that was a nice turn.
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So knowing that, best case is mild sprain and day to day, worst case maybe being a bad high ankle sprain and possibly out a month Sounds about right. Safe bet is he's done for the regular season and maybe back for the DS if they make it there.
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Nice, Schwarber. That's a pair of oppo hits today.
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Castellanos is a machine.
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No fracture for Rizzo. MRI tomorrow.
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Alright, let's try to not give any runs back right away. Thanks.
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LOL Pirates.
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KB!
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Only down two and we've got 21 outs left. We're still winning this thing.
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Q blowup inning in full swing.
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Why can we never have good things this year?
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Just keep winning, idiots.
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To be fair, you think the Brewers will end the year by winning their next 14 games. The problem for the Brewers is the only way they win the division is by finishing something like 12-2 because of the 7 H2H games between the Cards and Cubs. They're currently 4% on FG and 6% on 538. BP hasn't updated yet but they jumped 1.4% on FG today and doing that would put them at 3.5% on BP. So they're between 1 in 20 and 1 in 30 to win the division. If they go 10-4, the Cards would have to go 6-8. Well, half of those games are against the Cubs. So unless something crazy happens like the Cards get destroyed by the Nats and DBacks but crush the Cubs, the Cubs are probably winning 4 of those games. So 5-2 against Pittsburgh and Cincy and we end up tied. If they go 9-5, the Cards would have to go 5-9. Now you're looking at the Cubs probably going 5-2 against St. Louis which means 4-3 in those other games gives the Cubs the division. I'm not going to say it's impossible, because they were around 1 in 20 last year at the end of August and they got super hot and tied the Cubs. They were also a much better team last year, that had Yelich, plus a healthy and producing Cain and a lights out bullpen. They don't have those things this year. So sure, if they go nuts the next two weeks, win 11 or 12 of 14 and win the division, I'll tip my cap to them. But they've got no margin for error.
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you will regret this I assure you I will not. I still think we have a realistic shot at the division and the main thing I wanted this weekend for for neither team to sweep that series. Tomorrow, I care more about the Cubs winning than the result of the other game. And the bottom line is I want the Cards to miss the playoffs and the more they lose, the more likely that is. If we miss out on the division by a game to the Brewers but the Cards miss the playoffs because the Brewers win 2 of 3 this series, I can live with that.